U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business

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1 U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks

2 Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder

3 U.S. Economic Outlook

4 Real Gross Domestic Product and Deflator % Change Gross Domestic Product GDP Deflator

5 The Equation Consumption Investment Government Expenditures Net Exports

6 Vehicle Sales Thousands $22,000 $21,000 $20,000 $19,000 $18,000 $17,000 $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01

7 NAHB Housing Market Index Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01

8 ISM Index Jan- 90 Jan- 91 Jan- 92 Jan- 93 Jan- 94 Jan- 95 Jan- 96 Jan- 97 Jan- 98 Jan- 99 Jan- 00 Jan- 01

9 Industrial Production = Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01

10 Capacity Utilization 85.0 Percentage Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00

11 Unemployment United States and Colorado $ Thousands United States Colorado Natural Rate

12 Consumer Price Index United States and Colorado CPI Rate United States Denver-Boulder-Greeley

13 Colorado Outlook

14 Resident Population Growth United States and Colorado % Change United States Colorado

15 Change in Total Population 120 Thousands Natural Change Net Migration

16 Per Capita Income United States and Colorado $ Thousands 40.0 $ $ United States Colorado

17 Construction

18 Index of Construction Employment 1992= United States Colorado

19 Colorado Building Permits 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, , Single-Family Multi-Family

20 Colorado Value of Construction Nonresidential and Nonbuilding 6,000 $ Millions 5,000 4,000 $3,650 3,000 2,000 1, Nonresidential Nonbuilding

21 Colorado Total Value of Construction 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 $ Millions $9, Residential Nonresidential Nonbuilding

22 Manufacturing

23 Index of Manufacturing Employment United States and Colorado 1992 = United States Colorado

24 Manufacturing Labor Issues Percentage of Excellent/Good Responses Professional Hourly Skill Level 58% 34% Willingness to Learn Productivity Availability Work Ethic 39 27

25 Wholesale Trade and Retail Trade Retail and Wholesale Trade TARGET slide

26 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985 = Jan-00 May Sep Jan-01 May Sept United States Mountain

27 Change in Retail Trade Sales % Change

28 Summary

29 Total New Jobs Created in the Nonagricultural Sector 1992=100 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Annual Change Average Change

30 New Jobs Created in the Nonagricultural Sectors Thousands 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000 OGM Const Mfg TCPU FIRE Trade Serv Govt

31 Employment Growth Colorado vs. the West % Change Arizona California Colorado Nevada New Mexico Texas Utah 1.2% - Colorado

32 Colorado #1 State Economy Rate Rank Population growth 6.0% 3 Employment growth Unemployment Wage and salary growth Personal income growth Per capita personal income growth Gross state product growth 9.0 5

33 What s Ahead in 2002? State budget deficit High-tech hangover Impacts of transportation and tourism slowdown Consumer confidence and retail spending Reduced wealth effect

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