More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?

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1 More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017

2 Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Percent Change, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

3 Long-Term Real GDP Growth Trend Percent Change 20-Year Quarterly Moving Average Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real GDP.

4 Economic Growth Percent Change Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Year-over-Year SAAR Fixed Business Investment Percent Change Percent Change Government Spending Year-over-Year SAAR Goods Exports 20 Year-over-Year Year-over-Year 5 0 SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

5 Recession 8 Months Thousands, Month-over- Month, 12-Mo Average National Employment Month-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody s Analytics, and NBER.

6 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force Average U-6 U-6 8.4% Average U-3 U-3 4.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

7 State Employment Growth Year-over-Year April 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

8 Demographics

9 U.S. Population by Race/Origin Millions All Other Races, Hispanic, Not Hispanic All Races White, Not Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections.

10 U.S. Population Shares by Race/Origin Share of Population 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% White, Not Hispanic 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% All Other Races, Not Hispanic Hispanic, All Races 0.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections.

11 Prime Working Age Population, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2015). Includes years of age.

12 Hispanic Population, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2015).

13 Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

14 Labor Force Participation Rate By Race/Ethnicity White Total Hispanic or Latino Asian Black or African American Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

15 Labor Force Participation Rates National by Age Cohort Percent Peak 2016 Current Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

16 Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2016 Percentage LFPR Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a high school diploma High school graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Seasonally Adjusted.

17 Wage and Employment Benefits 2016 Unemployment Rate Median Weekly Earnings 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.7% Doctoral degree Professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree 1,664 $1,745 $1,380 $1, % Associate's degree $ % Some college, no degree $ % High school diploma $ % Less than a high school diploma $504 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.

18 U.S. Income and Consumption 4.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption % 2.8% % 2.6% Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

19 Personal Income Growth 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

20 Household Wealth Q Q $ Trillions Other Assets Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Total Liabilities Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

21 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR Debt Service Ratio (L) FOR Financial Obligations Ratio (R) Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

22 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985=100 Recession 8 months 160 Recession 18 months 140 Mountain Region United States Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

23 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 25,000 Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Annual Percent Change , ,000 10, , Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

24 Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change Business Fixed Investment % 3.9% % 3.2% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

25 ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

26 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

27 National Housing Starts Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

28 Federal Budget Balance $ Billions $600 -$689-1,000-1,200-1,400-1, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

29 U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index and Real Net Exports U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index 1973= $ Billions Real Net Exports $634 -$ Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Consensus Forecasts.

30 Money, Interest Rates, and Prices

31 The FED $ in Millions 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Securities Mortgage Backed Securities Other Assets 0-1,000,000-2,000,000 Deposits -3,000,000 Reserve Notes Outstanding, Net Holdings -4,000,000 Other Liabilities -5,000, Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, H.4.1 Statistical Release.

32 Interest Rates (Forecast) Percent Year T-Note Month T-Bill Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody s.

33 Total Debt Balance and its Composition Percent 14 Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other (3%) (10%) (6%) (9%) (4%) (67%) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

34 2003 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Loan Delinquency Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type Percent Mortgage HELOC Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other All Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel.

35 National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change Shelter All items less food and energy All items Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).

36 International and National Summary GDP growth nearing potential Balance sheets getting stronger Global output and trade growth Strong Value of the dollar Rising (but low) interest rates Inflation modest, but a future concern?

37 Concerns Interest rates Global growth Commodity prices Value of the dollar Policy

38 Thank You!

39 IN MD LA KS OK IL AL ME IA WY PA AR Ak NM NY MS OH DE NJ VT WV FHFA state bar chart, Yr Home Price Growth Rates 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NV CA AZ CO FL OR WA DC ID GA MI UT TX HI TN MN SC ND NC MA NH SD NE MT MO WI KY RI VA Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

40 CA IN MS RI TN MN NJ NV AR KS WA CT IL MA TX FL ID IA KY MD MI PA SC VT WV UT OH DC AZ ME NE VA NM LA ND WI NC OK SD MO AL GA HI NY WY CO AK DE MT NH OR State Sales Tax Rate 2017 State Sales Tax, % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% U.S. Average: 5.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Tax Foundation.

41 LA TN AR AL WA OK IL KS NY AZ CA TX NV MO NM CO MN SC OH MS GA INRI NC NE NJ FL IA ND UT SD CT PA WV MA VT ID KY MD MI DC VA ME WI WY HI AK DE MT NH OR Combined State and Local Sales Tax Rate State and Local Sales Tax, % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% U.S. Average: 6.47% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Tax Foundation.

42 AK FL NV NH SD TX WA WY TN ND OH NM HI MS DE RI OK IN MA LA KS PA NJ KY AZ AL IL WV SC ME GA ID VT WI MN NE CT MD NC MT UT AR IA CO VA NY CA MO ORMI State Personal Income Tax Revenue Percent of General Revenue that Stems from Personal Income Tax Percent of General Fund, Fall % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: National Association of Budget Officers, The Fiscal Survey of States, Fall Calculations by BRD staff.

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