Economic Update: Accelerating Growth and Increasing Risk

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Economic Update: Accelerating Growth and Increasing Risk"

Transcription

1 Economic Update: Accelerating Growth and Increasing Risk Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business May 23, 2018

2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. The data in this presentation are subject to revision. To our knowledge, all data in this presentation are accurate at the time of the presentation.

3 Current and Historical Expansions Expansion Duration In months Annual Employment Growth Annual Real GDP Growth October 1949 July % 6.14% May 1954 August % 3.67% April 1958 April % 4.86% February 1961 December % 4.68% November 1970 November % 4.60% March 1975 January % 4.01% December 1982 July % 3.81% March 1991 March % 3.45% November 2001 December % 2.66% June 2009 Present* % 2.16% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in 2018 Q1 for GDP and March 2018 for Employment. Average annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92%. Next update is May 30 th,

4 Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product United States and Virginia, Q1 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q1 United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S Q1 and Virginia 2017 Q4 are advance estimates. VA 2018 Q1 is our forecast. Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth. Next update: US (May 30, 2018) and Virginia (July 24, 2018). 4

5 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Thousands of Jobs 150, ,000 Total Nonfarm Employment United States, January 2007 April Million Jobs 148, , , , , , ,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for March and April 2018 are preliminary. Trough was February Next update: June 1,

6 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Thousands of Jobs 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 Total Nonfarm Employment Virginia, January 2007 March , ,100 Jobs 3,987 3,400 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for March 2018 are preliminary. Trough was February Next update: May 18,

7 % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Recovery from the Great Recession Measured in Total Jobs Restored, * 7.23% 5.24% -8% United States Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak Pre-Recession Dates are January 2008 (United States) and April 2008 (Virginia). Data for USA through April 2018, Virginia through March US data preliminary for March and April Virginia data preliminary for March Data from Current Employment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. 7

8 % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Recovery from the Great Recession Measured in Individual Employment, * 4.94% 5.86% -8% United States Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak Pre-Recession Dates are November 2007 (United States) and July 2008 (Virginia). Data for USA through April 2018, Virginia through March US data preliminary for March and April Virginia data preliminary for March Current Population Survey data. Seasonally adjusted data. 8

9 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 12% Headline Unemployment Rate (U3) Virginia and United States, % 8% 6% 4.6% 3.9% 4% 2% 0% 2.9% 3.4% Virginia United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. Virginia data through March 2018 while US data through April Next update: US: June 1, 2018 and Virginia: May 18,

10 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6) Virginia and the United States, st Quarter % 10.1% 8.3% 8.2% 12.9% 6.8% 7.6% 6.0% United States Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented. Next update: July 27,

11 Unemployed/Job Openings 7 6 Number of Unemployed Individuals per Job Opening United States, January 2001 to March Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Next update: June 5,

12 Individuals Month-to-Month Change in Labor Force Virginia, January 2017 to March ,000 6,000 5,986 5,965 5,390 5,248 5,434 5,323 4,942 5,000 4,547 4,000 3,000 3,204 3,788 2,000 1,947 1, ,000-2, ,452 1,439 Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. March 2018 data are preliminary. Next update: May 18,

13 Individuals 10,000 Month-to-Month Change in Employment Virginia, January 2017 to March ,000 8,374 8,776 8,196 7,787 7,724 7,214 6,420 8,023 7,249 6,000 4,437 4,000 2,971 2, ,000 1,486 Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar 966 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. March 2018 data are preliminary. Next update: May 18,

14 % 77.9% Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate United States, January 1980 April % 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 64.0% 51.6% 69.2% 62.8% 56.7% 40% Overall Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Next update: June 1,

15 % 72% 70% Labor Force Participation Rate Virginia, January 1976 to March % 69.9% 68% 66% 65.1% 64% 62% 60% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Next update: May 18,

16 % 10% Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP United States, % 8% 6% 6.52% 4% 2% 0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment 16

17 Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio Standard and Poor s Composite Price Index January 1881 May 2018* Source: Robert Schiller, Irrational Exuberance. Prices and earnings are in January 2000 dollars. Data as May 1, 2018 market close. For further information: 17

18 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index United States, January 1987 February Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC. Seasonally adjusted series. January 2000 =

19 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Case-Shiller Home Price Index Change from Pre-Recession Peak to February % 6.7% 48.1% Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC. Seasonally adjusted series. January 2000 =

20 January 2000 = New Residential Construction Single Unit and Units in Buildings with 5 Units or More United States, January 2000 March Single Unit Housing 5 or More Units Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Annual rate. Next update: May 16, January 2000 =

21 % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cash Out Refinance Activity United States, 1st Quarter st Quarter % 12% 68% Source: Freddie Mac, Quarterly Refinance Statistics, 1 st Quarter Percentage of refinances refers to loan amounts that were at least 5 percent higher than the amortized unpaid principal balance of the original loan. 21

22 Federal Spending

23 Billions of Nominal Dollars $670 $650 $630 $610 $590 $570 $550 $530 $510 $490 $470 Department of Defense Base Budget FY 2011 FY 2019 $636 $ CR $ Request 2018 BBA 2018 Request FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2011 Enacted with Inflation Original BCA Caps Prior BBA Caps Source: BCA2011,Budget Requests for FY 18 and FY 19, CBO Sequestration Update Report, Various Years, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. FY 2011 Actual and FY 2012 Proposed Budget and FYDP. FY 18 and FY 19 are inflated from the FY12 FYDP estimate of FY17. 23

24 Billions of Nominal Dollars $800 $700 $600 $500 $691 $ Department of Defense Discretionary Budget Authority, FY 2010 FY 2023 $ $577 $581 $ $ $ $ $686 $701 $714 $727 $ $400 $300 $ $100 $0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 DoD Base Budget Overseas Contingency Operations Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. FY 2019 Budget Materials. FY 18 base budget includes $5 billion in missile defense authority. Nominal dollars. 24

25 FY 18 Approved FY 18 Approved FY 19 Request FY 19 Request Aircraft F-35 Joint Strike Fighter 90 $ $10.7 KC-46 Tanker Replacement 15 $ $3.0 F/A-18 Super Hornet 24 $ $2.0 AH-64E Apache Attack Helicopter 80 $ $1.3 P-8A Poseidon 10 $ $2.2 CH-53K King Stallion 4 $1.1 8 $1.6 Shipbuilding Virginia Class Submarine 2 $5.5 2 $7.4 DDG-51 Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers 2 $4.0 3 $6.0 Littoral Combat Ships 3 $1.7 1 $1.3 CVN-78 Class Aircraft Carrier 1 $4.6 - $1.8 Fleet Replenishment Oiler 1 $0.5 2 $1.1 Towing, Salvage, and Rescue Ship 1 $0.1 1 $0.1 Expeditionary Sea Base $0.7 Source: U.S. Department of Defense. FY 2019 Budget Materials and FY 2018 Appropriations Summaries. Note the US Navy is currently negotiation a two carrier contract (CVN 80 and CVN 81) to possibly be announced in early FY

26 Good News For Two Years The passage of the Bipartisan Budget Agreement of 2018 reduces the uncertainty of defense appropriations through FY 2019 The authorizing committees support a two-carrier buy and other increases in ship building Increasing geopolitical tension will likely continue pressure to increase DoD spending in the medium-term An opportunity exists to consolidate DoD activities in Hampton Roads even though there is not a Base Realignment and Closure request included in the FY 19 budget request 26

27 Billions of Dollars $0 Congressional Budget Office: Projected Federal Deficit FY FY $500 -$1,000 -$1,500 -$805 -$981 -$1,104 -$1,261 -$1,436 -$1,455 -$1,444 -$1,570 -$1,641 -$2,000 -$1,797 -$2,029 -$2, CBO Baseline CBO Alternative Fiscal Scenario Source: Congressional Budget Office (2018), Budget and Economic Output: 2018 to 2018 and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars. The Alternative Fiscal Scenario assumes that many the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 would be made permanent and many of the Affordable Care Act taxes are repealed, among others. 27

28 Billions of Dollars 1200 Projected Net Interest United States. FY 2017 FY $263 $316 $390 $487 $576 $655 $721 $764 $805 $857 $918 $ CBO Baseline Alternative Fiscal Scenario Source: Congressional Budget Office (2018), Budget and Economic Output: 2018 to 2018 and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Interest expenditures in nominal dollars. The Alternative Fiscal Scenario assumes that many the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 would be made permanent and many of the Affordable Care Act taxes are repealed, among others. 28

29 2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast (Jan) 2018 Forecast (May) U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1% Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6% Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0% 2.1% 10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 3.3% 30-year Treasury Bill % 3.6% 3.6% 30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% Federal Deficit --- -$666 Billion -$850 Billion -$825 Billion Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% Virginia Employment Growth % 1.3% 1.5% Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. Data are rounded to nearest tenth. The initial forecast for real GDP for Virginia has increased from 2.2% to 2.7% due to increases in federal spending in FY 2018 and 2019 and revisions to quarterly growth in VA during

30 Virginia s Metropolitan Regions

31 Where Does Virginia Rank? A Look at the CNBC Rankings Overall Cost of Doing Business Infrastructure and Transportation 24 Cost of Living 28 Source: CNBC, Various Years. For 2017:

32 Contributions to Real GDP Growth 2016 Best Performing Sector 2016 Contribution 2016 Worst Performing Sector 2016 Contribution Blacksburg Government 0.37% Durable Goods Manufacturing -1.75% Charlottesville Government 0.39% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate -1.34% Hampton Roads Educational Services, Health 0.26% Durable Goods Manufacturing -0.48% Harrisonburg Natural Resources and Mining 0.41% Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -2.34% Kingsport-Bristol Trade 0.34% Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -0.95% Lynchburg Professional Services 0.17% Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -0.62% Richmond Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 1.67% Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -0.70% Roanoke Construction 0.43% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate -0.81% Staunton Natural Resources and Mining 0.19% Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -1.63% Washington DC Professional Services 0.55% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate -0.15% Winchester Natural Resources and Mining 0.10% Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -1.29%

33 % Recovery from the Great Recession Measured in Total Jobs Restored, * 10.98% 12.07% 10.92% 10% 5% 7.05% 8.02% 0% -5% -10% Charlottesville Harrisonburg Richmond Winchester Northern Virginia 33

34 % 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% Recovery from the Great Recession Measured in Total Jobs Restored, * -0.15% -1.94% -1.95% -5.15% -9% Lynchburg Roanoke Staunton Hampton Roads 34

35 Comparison of Metro Unemployment Rates 9.0% 8.0% 8.5% 7.6% 8.0% 8.2% 7.8% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.2% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 2.9% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Blacksburg Charlottesville Hampton Roads Harrisonburg Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Washington DC Winchester December Average March 2018

36 Unemployment Rate Virginia Cities and Counties, March

37 4.0% Year-on-Year Growth in Nonfarm Payrolls 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% VA Blacksburg Charlottesville Harrisonburg Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Winchester Hampton Roads -1.0% -2.0% October November December January February March Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Data are through March 2018

38 Change in Average Weekly Wages ( in Percent) 12.00% 10.71% 10.00% Virginia 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 6.47% 6.03% 4.73% 5.08% 5.03% 6.63% 4.03% 7.20% 6.74% Blacksburg Charlottesville Hampton Roads Harrisonburg Lynchburg Richmond Roanoke Washington DC 2.00% Winchestor 0.00%

39 Recovery in Housing Prices: Changes in FHFA Housing Price Index, % 26.49% 25.00% 23.09% U.S. Virginia 20.00% Blacksburg Charlottesville 15.00% 12.68% 11.90% 15.07% Hampton Roads Harrisonburg Lynchburg 10.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.54% 6.38% 6.58% 2.99% 5.21% Richmond Roanoke Winchester Washington 0.00% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. *Data compare 4 th quarter 2010 with the 4 th Quarter of 2017.

40 40

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business January 3, 2019 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast. Strome College of Business

Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast. Strome College of Business Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast January 25, 2017 Professor Vinod Agarwal Director, Economic Forecasting Project Strome College of Business www.odu.edu/forecasting The views expressed

More information

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Kenworth National Dealers Conference November 8, 2018 1 National Economic Conditions 2 Volatility Returns to the Stock Market 27,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average October 10,

More information

From Recession to Recovery

From Recession to Recovery From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific

More information

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after

More information

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.

More information

Economy On The Rebound

Economy On The Rebound Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation

More information

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1

More information

A comment on recent events, and...

A comment on recent events, and... A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,

More information

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA of Alabama Annual Conference June 7, 2017 Presented by Lynn Fisher Mortgage Bankers Association 1 Summary of the MBA Outlook 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth

More information

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update. Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and

More information

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP

More information

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth

More information

The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya

The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented

More information

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around

More information

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard

More information

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully

More information

The Virginia Economy: Labor Markets and Workforce

The Virginia Economy: Labor Markets and Workforce The Virginia Economy: Labor Markets and Workforce April 4, 2017 Sonya Ravindranath Waddell Regional Economist Research Department The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Veteran Owned Business Conference May 11, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

State of American Trucking

State of American Trucking State of American Trucking October 11, 2018 Rod Suarez Economic Analyst American Trucking Associations rsuarez@trucking.org Business Cycles U.S. Expansions Duration October 1949 - July 1953 May 1954 -

More information

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? 2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018

More information

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business 10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent

More information

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016 GDP Grows, Though Slowly 10.0 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR 6.0 4.0

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company Webinar December 1, 2016 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

More information

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Department Vol. XVIl, No.3 March 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02 Table

More information

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 2 OVERVIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION January 22, 2018 I. THE 1920S A. GDP growth and inflation B.

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.9 September 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.11 November 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

CBO s January Baseline Sets the Stage. CRFB.org

CBO s January Baseline Sets the Stage. CRFB.org CBO s January Baseline Sets the Stage 1 Trillion-Dollar Deficits Are Returning $1,600 Billions $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 Deficits Increased Almost 800% Deficits Fell 69% Deficits Triple to Nearly $1.4

More information

Briefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy

Briefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy Briefing on the State of the State presented to the SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy Rae D. Rosen Assistant Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of New York November 16, 2006 Key Points: Economic

More information

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the

More information

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily

More information

www.colorado.edu/leeds/brd CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview WIB Education Summit September 19, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

Europe June Craig Menear. Chairman, CEO & President. Diane Dayhoff. Vice President, Investor Relations

Europe June Craig Menear. Chairman, CEO & President. Diane Dayhoff. Vice President, Investor Relations Europe June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measurements Certain statements contained in today

More information

Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow

Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow Contact: Penny Brown, AMT, 703-827-5275 pbrown@amtonline.org For Release: October 8th, 2018 Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow Manufacturing technology orders posted an

More information

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) AUGUST 2016 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 Labor Force Employment June 2015 to June 2016: 36,504

More information

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM:

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: 2018 National Economic Update September 12, 2018 noun mo men tum \ mō-ˈmen-təm, mə- \ 1 b : the strength or force that allows something to continue or to grow stronger or faster as

More information

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT September 218 RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS RTC Transit Highlights... Page ii RTC Transit Summary...

More information

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers

More information

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT April 2016 RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS RTC Transit Highlights... Page ii RTC Transit Summary...

More information

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) AUGUST 2018 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 Labor Force Employment 1,152,626 1,116,938 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 2016 to 2017: 35957 (3.1%)

More information

Real Estate and Economic Outlook

Real Estate and Economic Outlook Real Estate and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation at Inforum Outlook Conference University of Maryland College Park, MD December 12, 2013

More information

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction

More information

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group Alternative Measures of Economic Activity Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group High School Fed Challenge Student Orientation: February 1 and 2, 217 Outline Alternative indicators: data

More information

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy

More information

Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015

Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Analysis. Answers Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Beacon Economics, LLC California fact versus fiction Looking back a few years (2009 / 2010) everyone was saying that CA would

More information

Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee

Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 7 years of economic growth since the Great Recession Real GDP grew by 1.2% in

More information

Economic and Real Estate Outlook

Economic and Real Estate Outlook Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS October 13, 2016 1990 1991 1992 1993

More information

Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services

Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Financial Overview December 6, 2017 1 Discussion Overview Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing

More information

2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond. Keynote Presentation

2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond. Keynote Presentation 2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond Keynote Presentation Business Research Division Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

More information

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 What is Colombian Ministry of Finance s outlook and funding strategies

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?

More information

Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN. Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research

Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN. Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research Total US - Key Statistics 12-Months Ending July 2012 % Change Hotels 52.3 k Room Supply 1.8 bn 0.4% Room Demand

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy?

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? Colorado Counties Inc. Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 28, 2017 Real GDP

More information

How Much Wind Is in the Sails?

How Much Wind Is in the Sails? How Much Wind Is in the Sails? Erie Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations September 20, 2017 Real GDP Growth

More information

The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS

The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS February 2019 Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist dwebb@mississippi.edu (601)432-6556

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club June 28, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction Territory

More information

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight

The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group. November 6, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group. November 6, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group November 6, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 23,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview UAFS & NAIB Convention September 14, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source:

More information

Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds

Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington,

More information

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankers Association Emerging Bank Leaders Conference. November 9, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankers Association Emerging Bank Leaders Conference. November 9, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankers Association Emerging Bank Leaders Conference November 9, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 23,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S.

More information

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum!

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! 11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! (almost) Beyond! Macroeconomics Portland, OR! October 16, 2014! Expansion Continues! Five Years and More!! Recession Indicators Nonfarm Payrolls Real Personal Income

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

Curves On The Road Ahead

Curves On The Road Ahead Curves On The Road Ahead Light Vehicle Market Outlook November 2018 Charles Chesbrough Senior Economist A g e n d a Economic Outlook and New Vehicle Sales Affordability Threat and the Used Vehicle Market

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview. March 14, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview. March 14, 2017 Zions Bank Economic Overview March 14, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal 120.0 110.0 100.0

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook The Building Industry Association Of Okaloosa-Walton Counties Economic Update and Outlook Rick Harper, PhD February 1, 2018 The Economic Outlook 3rd longest postwar expansion for U.S., marked 103 months

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankruptcy Lawyers Forum March 20, 2018 National Economic Conditions When Good News is Bad News Is Good News?? Dow Tops 26,000 Up 44% Since 2016 Election Source: Wall

More information

US Economic Activity

US Economic Activity US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity

More information

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results January 19, 2018 Elif Sen Senior Economic Analyst FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA * The views expressed today are my

More information

Manufacturers continue capacity expansion as technology orders grow

Manufacturers continue capacity expansion as technology orders grow Contact: Penny Brown, AMT, 703-827-5275 pbrown@amtonline.org For Release: September 10, 2018 Manufacturers continue capacity expansion as technology orders grow Manufacturing technology orders for July

More information

Frederick Ross. Real Estate Market Overview. Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President. Frederick Ross. Company.

Frederick Ross. Real Estate Market Overview. Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President. Frederick Ross. Company. Frederick Ross Real Estate Market Overview Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President Frederick Ross Company January 2003 Business Consumers Source: BEA, Ross Research Housing...Bust or Rust? 2001

More information

Participation. Workers Compensation Insurance Seminar. May 22, Nick Beleiciks

Participation. Workers Compensation Insurance Seminar. May 22, Nick Beleiciks Oregon s Falling Labor Force Participation Workers Compensation Insurance Seminar May 22, 2013 Nick Beleiciks Let s start with a simple graph. Oregon Employment Loss by Recession 0% % Job Loss from Peak

More information

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014 2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook

More information

Education Committee Economic Background and Issue Review

Education Committee Economic Background and Issue Review Education Committee Economic Background and Issue Review Montpelier, Vermont January 22, 2014 Thomas E. Kavet State Economist and Principal Economic Advisor to the Vermont State Legislature Since 1996

More information

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder U.S. Economic

More information