2015 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

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1 LOGICAL APPROACH P. O. Box Las Vegas, NV (702) Visit us on the Web at COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER Issue # 5 Games of October 1-5, 2015 With this issue we debut our 2015 Spreadsheet. This exclusive feature provides concise comparative data for all 128 FBS college and 32 NFL teams. With the data you ll be able to analyze games of your choice, including games on which we have just an opinion or lean. From the data you may be able to uncover some additional selections that may meet your own criterion or selection preferences. The Spreadsheet should be viewed not as a substitute for the selections in the Newsletter, but rather as a supplement. By looking at how teams match up in various fundamental and technical areas you ll be able to better see the hows and whys of football. Let s look at the data which is the same for both the colleges and the pros. The first data is very basic, with the straight up (W-L) and pointspread (C-N-P) records shown followed by the average points scored and allowed plus margin of victory/defeat. Then comes rush, pass and total yardage per game averages, (against all foes, including non I-A college teams). Offensive data is given first, then defensive data. Also shown are net total yards per game gained/allowed and net turnover margin for the season (not per game average). We then show several sets of Power Ratings, which we discuss below. AVE PWR RTG is a team's Average Power Rating and is based on a team's results, measured totally by final scores. These are 'raw' Ratings that are the basis for more detailed Ratings. These are evaluated on a weekly basis and adjusted based upon comparing expected victory margin vs. actual margin, as predicted by current Power Rating and take into account, in the case of the colleges, a team s Conference Rating. AVE OPP PWR RTG is the Average Opponents' Power Rating and is based upon the same concepts as a team's own Power Ratings. It is derived simply by taking an average of all opponents' Power Ratings at the time the game was played. This gives us a basic measure of a team's level of competition. For the colleges Opponents Power Ratings are also influenced by the strength of a team s Conference Rating. NET CHG is the pure change in a team's Power Rating from the season's start and measure whether a team has improved or worsened during the season. LINE POWR is the Line Power rating and is an attempt to measure a team s strength based on both how the public perceives the team (in terms of the Average Line Played Against, or their average pointspread) and how the team actually performs on the field (in terms of Average Result Vs. the Line). A higher number is better and we use a weighting formula that places somewhat more of an emphasis on how the team performs as opposed to how the team is expected to perform. We weight Reality heavier than Perception. GAME PLAY POWR is Game Play Power Rating and is an attempt to evaluate the result of each games in a numerical fashion by looking at other factors in addition to the final score. In particular we look at rushing yardage, passing yardage and turnovers in addition to the final score and develop a single measure to indicate which team played the better game regardless of the outcome. Sometimes the better team doesn t win. But that s not the way to wager. We want to be able to use this measure as a means of finding attractive underdogs who might not have a good win-loss record but have played much more competitively than final scores might indicate. Conversely, this measure helps us find overvalued and false favorites. COMP POWR represents Composite Power Rating and is a combination of the two Ratings just described plus the team s Average Power Rating and their Opponents Average Power Rating. It is the one number that attempts to take into account all of the important factors in analyzing a game and does so without bias. It s based on a formula that we ve used for years. And as the season progresses it represents a pretty good measure of the actual difference between teams.

2 Finally, X FACTOR is a measure of correlation between a team s ability to gain or allow yards and their ability to score or prevent points. A positive number is indicative of an efficient team while a negative number indicates an inefficient team. We ll have more on this interesting, revealing and very useful statistic next week. COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Oregon - 7 ½ over COLORADO That was one ugly loss Utah pinned on the Ducks last week. The spanking was Oregon s first double digit home loss since late Since the start of 2007 Oregon had been 50-6 SU with only 7 wins be less than 10 points! The Ducks chances for making it to the 4 team Playoff were all but gone with their loss at Michigan State. Now they are kaput. But a Pac 12 title still is possible and Oregon controls its own fate. Likely needing to win out, the Ducks still must face all 5 Pac 12 North foes (Utah is in the Pac 12 South). Colorado is an improving team but has not fared well against Oregon, losing all 4 games as Pac 12 foes with each loss by at least 34 points and being outscored ! Clearly the Oregon defense is down considerably from the past few seasons but they still have speed and size edges over the Buffs. The gap between these teams has narrowed but after being favored by from 30 ½ to 47 points in those 4 prior meetings laying less barely a TD is too much of an overreaction. Oregon has also faced a much more difficult early season schedule. Oregon wins Other Featured College Selections Kansas State + 8 over OKLAHOMA STATE Oklahoma State was fortunate to get by Texas last week, winning in their Big 12 opener and improving to 4-0. Kansas State was idle and opens conference play this week. K-State consistently overachieves under brilliant coach Snyder who has been able to extract the most from the talent he recruits. Both teams defeated UTSA in non-conference play K-State winning 30-3 on the road a week before OSU won at home. K-State s yardage edge was whereas OSU s edge was OSU has the more potent offense while KSU is stronger defensively. The teams have split their last 4 meetings but K-State has covered in all 4 and is 6-1 ATS vs OSU in the past decade. KSU covered as 13 point dogs in a loss here in 2013 and also as a 20 point dog in a loss here in Since returning to K-State in 2007, Snyder is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in conference openers. His teams are well prepared and fundamentally sound. The week of rest helps. Oklahoma State wins but by just NAVY - 5 ½ over Air Force Navy is 8-2 ATS vs Air Force over the past decade although the teams have split ATS decisions the past 4 seasons (Navy is 7-3 SU). Air Force won last season, 30-21, recapturing the Commander In Chief Trophy. It will be widely reported this week that the Underdog is 8-2 in this series in the past decade but it is to be noted that Navy is 5-0 as the dog and 3-2 when favored. Both teams have relentless rushing attacks that are averaging over 360 ypg, ranking #2 and #3. The lone loss suffered by either team thus far was Air Force s loss at Michigan State, the best team played by either foe. But Navy has also been tested. In their first season as conference member (AAC) Navy defeated E Carolina and UConn the past two weeks. Air Force had a Bye last week, giving them added time to prepare for one of their two big rivals. Navy is at Notre Dame next week but service academies rarely get caught looking ahead. Navy has been the better program for many years which fits nicely with revenge. Navy wins Unlv + 7 over NEVADA This is rivalry game although UNR has dominated the series, winning 9 of 10 over the past decade (7-3 ATS). UNLV s lone win came here in Both teams have played tough nonconference schedules with Nevada losing to Arizona and at Texas A&M and UNLV losing to UCLA and at Michigan. UNLV s defense actually fared well in those loses, allowing just 5.4 and 5.9 yards per play. Both teams enter off of wins. Nevada held on for a win at Buffalo. UNLV blew out FCS Idaho State 80-8, gaining confidence and setting several school records. This is clearly a step up for the Rebels but not as much a step up when they opened the season with a competitive road loss at Northern Illinois (which played well in a loss at Ohio State). First year coach Sanchez moved from high school to UNLV but had the smart sense to surround himself with several assistants with major college coaching experience. UNLV has played hard and showed no quit vs UCLA and Michigan. Nevada wins but by just Best of the Rest (Opinions) CINCINNATI + 6 ½ over Miami Fla [Thursday] North Carolina + 7 ½ over GEORGIA TECH Memphis - 8 ½ over SOUTH FLORIDA [Friday] Toledo - 6 ½ over BALL STATE

3 AKRON + 2 ½ over Ohio U Minnesota + 4 over NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA - 7 over West Virginia Western Kentucky - 7 over RICE Alabama + 2 ½ over GEORGIA ILLINOIS + 7 over Nebraska Baylor - 17 over Texas Tech [Arlington, TX] AUBURN - 20 over San Jose State Arkansas + 6 ½ over TENNESSEE UTAH STATE - 4 ½ over Colorado State MASSACHUSETTS - 3 over Florida International Louisville + 4 ½ over NORTH CAROLINA STATE TEXAS A&M - 6 ½ over Mississippi State Houston - 5 ½ over TULSA Mississippi - 7 over FLORIDA Northern Illinois - 2 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN Washington State + 19 over CALIFORNIA MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 1 over Vanderbilt Georgia Southern - 6 over UL MONROE New Mexico State + 12 ½ over NEW MEXICO CHARLOTTE + 23 ½ over Temple [Friday] PENN STATE - 21 * over Army The Rest (Leans) BYU - 18 ½ over Connecticut [Friday] Bowling Green - 8 ½ over BUFFALO Wyoming + 25 ½ over APPALACHIAN STATE IOWA STATE - 16 over Kansas WISCONSIN - 6 ½ over Iowa Ucf - 3 ½ * over TULANE Arizona + 13 * over STANFORD Boston College + 6 ½ over DUKE BOISE STATE - 24 ½ over Hawaii LOUISIANA TECH - 18 over UL Lafayette LSU - 44 ½ over Eastern Michigan East Carolina - 5 ½ over SMU TROY - 6 over South Alabama Michigan - 16 over MARYLAND Miami Ohio + 10 ½ over KENT STATE Purdue + 22 over MICHIGAN STATE Pittsburgh + 4 ½ over VIRGINIA TECH UCLA - 13 ½ over Arizona State TCU - 15 over Texas Ohio State - 21 over INDIANA ARKANSAS STATE - 20 ½ over Idaho MISSOURI - 4 over South Carolina MARSHALL - 18 ½ over Old Dominion North Texas + 16 over SOUTHERN MISS Florida State - 19 over WAKE FOREST UT San Antonio - 3 over UTEP CLEMSON Pick em over Notre Dame * Projected Lines Fresno State + 9 over SAN DIEGO STATE NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: WASHINGTON + 3 ½ over Philadelphia The Eagles got their first win of the season on Sunday at the Jets despite an offense that gained just 231 yards but benefitted from 4 takeaways and a special teams TD. Washington is rested following last Thursday s loss at the Giants. They have been able to run the football on offense while stuffing the run on defense. The Eagles have seen their passing yardage drop game by game from 336 to 219 to 108. Each team defeated the other at home last season, each by exactly a FG. The Eagles are questioning themselves and searching for answers to their sluggish start while Washington has been more competitive than expected. Although they ve been minus in turnovers in each game the Skins have outgained each of their 3 foes. The Eagles have been outgained in 2 of their 3 games, outyarding only Atlanta in their opener (by just 4 yards). Although it may not last, Washington has played the better, more consistent football. Washington wins

4 Other Featured NFL Selections: N Y Jets - 2 ½ over Miami (London, England) Note the early 9:30 AM EDT start time for the first of three London games this season. In losing to Philadelphia the Jets defense played well, holding the Eagles to just 231 yards of offense. Their own offense was hurt by the absence due to injury of several key performers at RB and WR but should be healthier for this game. Miami was putrid in its home loss to Buffalo, outplayed on both sides of the football. Coach Philbin may be in his final game as with Bye for both teams up next. The Jets have played the much better football over the first 3 weeks and Miami will face a defense every bit as tough as Buffalo s. Of the teams, the Jets appear more capable of bouncing back. N Y Jets win Houston + 6 ½ over ATLANTA Houston got its first win (and cover) in a dull 19-9 win over Tampa Bay while the Falcons improved to a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS with their wild win at Dallas. Atlanta is much improved with coach Quinn on the sidelines. It should be noted that all 3 wins have come vs NFC East teams. Houston continues to have concerns at QB which may be alleviated this week if RB Foster is cleared to play, although they did rush for 186 yards vs Tampa. The Texans strength remains their defense and the high potent Atlanta offense will face the best defense they will have seen thus far. On a yards per play basis the Falcons have been outgained in each of their 3 games, a fundamental vulnerability that makes it tough to lay a TD, especially with the weaker defense. Atlanta wins but by just SAN DIEGO - 7 ½ over Cleveland Few home teams in recent memory have been able to claim they lost at home to Oakland but the Browns did just that last Sunday. San Diego is off of back to back road losses at quality foes (Cincinnati and Minnesota). Both teams are 1-2 both SU and ATS. Man for man the Chargers have the edge at most positions vs the Browns, especially at QB. Cleveland has been outgained in all 3 games, twice by more than 100 yards. In fact, the Chargers own most of the primary and secondary statistical edges despite having played tougher foes. Competitive road losses such as those suffered by the Chargers rarely call for downward Power Rating adjustments but do provide harbingers of above average efforts upon returning home and stepping down in class. San Diego wins INDIANAPOLIS - 9 ½ over Jacksonville CINCINNATI - 3 ½ over Kansas City ARIZONA - 6 ½ over St Louis Best of the Rest (Opinions) CHICAGO + 3 over Oakland Minnesota + 6 ½ over DENVER Dallas + 4 * over NEW ORLEANS Baltimore - 2 ½ over PITTSBURGH (Thursday) BUFFALO - 5 ½ over N Y Giants SEATTLE - 9 ½ over Detroit (Monday) The Rest (Leans) Carolina - 3 over TAMPA BAY Green Bay - 8 ½ over SAN FRANCISCO BYES New England, Tennessee Best of the NFL Totals N Y Jets/Miami UNDER 41 ½ Carolina/Tampa Bay UNDER 40 Philadelphia/Washington UNDER 47 Minnesota/Denver UNDER 43 St Louis/Arizona OVER 42 ½ Detroit/Seattle OVER 43 Money Line Recommendations College: CINCINNATI AKRON Louisville Alabama Pro: N Y Jets CHICAGO WASHINGTON Dallas NOTE: All Selections are picked Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).

5 LOGICAL APPROACH's 2015 PRO FOOTBALL SPREADSHEET Current NFL Data Complete through Monday, September 28, 2015 AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE NET AVE AVE RUN PAS TOT RUN PAS TOT AVE AVE OPP PWR GAME PTS PTS AVE YPG YPG YPG YPG YPG YPG NET NET PWR PWR RTG LINE PLAY COMP 'X' TEAM W L C N P FOR AGT MGN FORFORFORAGT AGT AGT YPG T/O RTG RTG CHG POWR POWR POWR FCTR BALTIMORE PITTSBURGH N Y JETS MIAMI JACKSONVILLE INDIANAPOLIS HOUSTON ATLANTA CAROLINA TAMPA BAY N Y GIANTS BUFFALO OAKLAND CHICAGO PHILADELPHIA WASHINGTON KANSAS CITY CINCINNATI CLEVELAND SAN DIEGO GREEN BAY SAN FRANCISCO MINNESOTA DENVER ST LOUIS ARIZONA DALLAS NEW ORLEANS DETROIT SEATTLE NEW ENGLAND TENNESSEE

6 LOGICAL APPROACH's 2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SPREADSHEET Current College Data Complete through Saturday, September 26, 2015 AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE NET AVE AVE RUN PAS TOT RUN PAS TOT AVE AVE OPP PWR GAME PTS PTS AVE YPG YPG YPG YPG YPG YPG NET NET PWR PWR RTG LINE PLAY COMP 'X' TEAM W L C N P FOR AGT MGN FORFORFORAGT AGT AGT YPG T/O RTG RTG CHG POWR POWR POWR FCTR MIAMI FLA CINCINNATI MEMPHIS ST SOUTH FLORIDA TEMPLE CHARLOTTE CONNECTICUT BYU N CAROLINA U GEORGIA TECH ARMY PENN STATE BOWLING GREEN BUFFALO TOLEDO BALL STATE WYOMING APPALACHIAN ST OHIO U AKRON MIAMI OHIO KENT STATE KANSAS U IOWA STATE PURDUE U MICHIGAN ST FLA INTRNTIONL MASSACHUSETTS MINNESOTA U NORTHWESTERN LOUISVILLE N CAROLINA ST WEST VIRGINIA OKLAHOMA U IOWA U WISCONSIN U PITTSBURGH VIRGINIA TECH MISSISSIPPI ST TEXAS A&M CENT FLORIDA TULANE W KENTUCKY RICE KANSAS ST OKLAHOMA ST HOUSTON U TULSA ARIZONA ST UCLA ARIZONA U STANFORD TEXAS U TCU AIR FORCE NAVY ALABAMA U GEORGIA U MISSISSIPPI U FLORIDA U BOSTON COLLEGE DUKE NEBRASKA U ILLINOIS U

7 LOGICAL APPROACH's 2015 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SPREADSHEET Current College Data Complete through Saturday, September 26, 2015 AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE AVE NET AVE AVE RUN PAS TOT RUN PAS TOT AVE AVE OPP PWR GAME PTS PTS AVE YPG YPG YPG YPG YPG YPG NET NET PWR PWR RTG LINE PLAY COMP 'X' TEAM W L C N P FOR AGT MGN FORFORFORAGT AGT AGT YPG T/O RTG RTG CHG POWR POWR POWR FCTR OHIO STATE INDIANA U N ILLINOIS C MICHIGAN TEXAS TECH BAYLOR HAWAII U BOISE ST OREGON U COLORADO U WASHINGTON ST CALIFORNIA SAN JOSE ST AUBURN U IDAHO U ARKANSAS ST UL LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TECH VANDERBILT MID TENNESSEE S CAROLINA U MISSOURI U E MICHIGAN LSU OLD DOMINION MARSHALL ARKANSAS U TENNESSEE U E CAROLINA U SMU NORTH TEXAS SOUTHERN MISS SOUTH ALABAMA TROY STATE GA SOUTHERN UL MONROE FLORIDA ST WAKE FOREST MICHIGAN U MARYLAND U COLORADO ST UTAH STATE TEX SAN ANTONI TEXAS EL PASO NOTRE DAME CLEMSON NEW MEXICO ST NEW MEXICO U UNLV NEVADA RENO FRESNO STATE SAN DIEGO ST FLA ATLANTIC GEORGIA ST KENTUCKY U OREGON ST RUTGERS SYRACUSE TEXAS ST UTAH U SOUTHERN CAL VIRGINIA U WASHINGTON U W MICHIGAN

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