KEYS ARE 17-7 THE PAST TWO WEEKS SYSTEM & TREND PLAYS SWEEP LAST WEEK

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1 THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVII Issue 10 September 18, 2017 $12.00 KEYS ARE 17-7 THE PAST TWO WEEKS SYSTEM & TREND PLAYS SWEEP LAST WEEK GREEN SHEET NFL WEEK 3 & NCAA WEEK 4 Key Selections went 8-4 last week but if felt like a disappointing newsletter week with two Rating 5 misses. A clear NFL misread but the college loss was hopefully the toughest beat we ll have all season in a truly outrageous finish. The back page had good results last week with 2-0 results for the trend and system plays and Key Selections are 17-7 the past two weeks. 4th Quarter Covers NCAA Week 3 Boise State (-17) 28, New Mexico 14: Offense was limited Thursday night as Boise State hosted New Mexico with reserve quarterbacks in action. Boise State led 14-7 early in the second quarter but the game then featured nearly 24 scoreless minutes before the Broncos took advantage of a strong punt return for a short-field scoring drive. The Broncos eclipsed the home favorite spread for the first time with about three minutes to go in the game but behind third-string quarterback Coltin Gerhart New Mexico delivered a late score to steal the cover, finding the end zone with just over a minute to go to extend a failed cover streak at home for the Broncos to now 11 straight games. Temple (-14½) 29, Massachusetts 21: Massachusetts climbed back into the game with a 20-yard touchdown pass late in the third quarter to trail by just five points. Temple settled for a field goal heading into the fourth quarter with a edge and then watched the Minutemen come away empty with a missed field goal early in the final frame. Massachusetts reached the Temple 28-yard-line on its next drive but still couldn t add points and Temple appeared to secure a narrow favorite cover with a touchdown just after the four-minute mark, leading by 15. In just over two minutes Massachusetts rallied for a late scoring drive to trial by just eight with still over a minute remaining and forced a Temple 3-and-out, reaching mid-field before the only turnover of the game on a lateral attempt. Notre Dame (-14) 49, Boston College 20: Nearly 40 minutes into this rivalry game Notre Dame led by just a single point but three consecutive scores put the Irish up by 22 early in the fourth quarter. Boston College would answer to climb back within 15 but with two short field scores following turnovers in the final seven minutes Notre Dame posting a convincing final score that wasn t entirely deserved in what was a fairly competitive game and a contest where Notre Dame completed just 11 of 27 passed for 96 yards. Memphis (+3½) 48, UCLA 45: This early national contest lived up to the bulling with a tight high scoring game. Memphis weathered the early storm and pulled ahead by halftime, leading by 10 late in the third quarter with a defensive touchdown. UCLA scored the next two touchdowns to lead by four, just past the road favorite spread into the fourth quarter. Memphis didn t trail for long with a fourplay drive going 81 yards to take the lead back before the pair of high profile quarterbacks traded interceptions. UCLA was stopped on downs just pas midfield in the final minute as the Tigers hung on for a huge home win. Duke (- 10) 34, Baylor 20: Duke led just through three quarters after Baylor closed the third quarter with a 79-yard touchdown pass but missed the extrapoint. That point proved costly for some with a line that reached as high as +14 at times as Duke returned a fourth quarter interception for a touchdown to lead by 11 and then added a field goal after an 18-yard drive with about five minutes to go for a 14-point final margin, with the Blue Devils ending the game taking a knee at the Baylor 24-yard line. Texas A&M (-24) 45, UL-Lafayette 21: The Ragin Cajuns scored three touchdowns in the second quarter to lead by seven at the half, setting potential for panic in College Station for a team that already had endured a disappointing start to the season. The Aggies would get in front by 10 by the end of the third quarter but covering the spread didn t appear likely until an early fourth quarter interception return touchdown. The Aggies added another score by breaking a 67-yard run and wound up with a 24-point win for a narrow cover for most on the heavy favorite. Read about the rest at Between the Lines... The top of the college football pecking order looks awfully similar to the past two seasons as Alabama and Clemson would be pegged #1 and #2 on a path to a third straight championship meeting if the season ended today. Clemson s start is truly impressive and the remaining path looks favorable although a tough Coastal crossover game is waiting next week in Blacksburg and the teams that gave Clemson their past two regular season losses weren t exactly top flight national powers in Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. Alabama s path has a few hurdles remaining as this week s road game as well as a late season road game in Starkville look a bit more demanding than initially assumed. The team to hand Alabama two of its past four losses is also next on the schedule to close September as well. The national interception leader board has some surprising names on it at this point in the season with Nebraska quarterback Tanner Lee leading the nation with seven thrown in three games after Huskers fans clamored for the end of the Tommy Armstrong era. Sam Darnold is next with six interceptions despite being the consensus preseason Heisman favorite and Nick Stevens, who made big waves in early August also has six picks, though in fairness he has also played four games as uneven scheduling across the nation due to the many cancelled games will be an issue in comparing statistics this college football season. Before the season started South Florida was almost universally slated to be the top Group of 5 squad with an undefeated season considered likely. That is still in play for the Bulls but nearly everyone agrees that a perfect South Florida team won t sniff the College Football Playoff. San Diego State has made some early noise and the Aztecs could be a more interesting case in that conversation now with wins against two Pac-12 squads. There probably isn t quite enough weight to get there even in a 13-0 run with a Mountain West championship but it would be a fair argument, particularly if Stanford and Arizona State rebound to have decent seasons and if Northern Illinois could possibly win the MAC, after last week s nice win at Nebraska, as the Huskies visit San Diego in two weeks. It would likely take a season where there are power 5 championship game upsets and two-loss teams being considered but there is chance. The team that could have gotten there last season is also still alive as Houston is 2-0 and with a chance for a second power 5 win this week before entering the AAC season. The AFC West is making a case for being the top division in the NFL with three of the league s 2-0 squads and a few impressive victories outside of the division already. Add that the 0-2 Chargers have been outscored by just five points and missed game tying and game winning kicks the past two weeks and this looks like a group that will produce multiple playoff teams for a third straight season. The NFC East produced two playoff teams last season and was considered one of the top divisions in 2016 but already every team has taken a loss and in Week 3 there is a head-to-head matchup plus difficult games for Dallas and Washington in primetime Sunday and Monday as it might be a one-bid division in 2017, with only the Eagles featuring a positive scoring differential so far. Of the eight teams already 0-2 none can be considered big surprises as none were winning teams last season with only the Colts 8-8. If the Giants lose Monday they would be an outlier in the group however. Only one team is guaranteed to be 0-3 next week with a 0-2 showdown between the Colts and the Browns. A Cleveland struggle was expected coming off a 1-15 season but the situation in Indianapolis could get messy with two QBs in two weeks and no word on Andrew Luck. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. VIOLATORS WILL FACE AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THEIR SUBSCRIPTION.

2 COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 WASHINGTON (-10) over Colorado RATING 4 APPALACHIAN STATE (+4) over Wake Forest RATING 3 GEORGIA (-6½) over Mississippi State RATING 2 BALL STATE (+9½) over Western Kentucky RATING 2 NEVADA (+28) over Washington State RATING 1 CENTRAL FLORIDA (+4) over Maryland RATING 1 OLD DOMINION (+26) over Virginia Tech ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2017 SOUTH FLORIDA (-20½) Temple Temple upset South Florida last season for the only AAC loss of the season for the Bulls. That tiebreaker gave the Owls the division title and they took the conference championship as well. Temple has been known for defense in recent years but the Owls had 528 yards in that matchup for a dominant result with a nearly 2:1 time of possession edge. Both teams have new coaches this season but the transition has looked more apparent for Temple struggling to score in a 2-1 start. These teams are a combined 1-5 ATS this season with the Bulls getting their best performance last week after the Hurricane Irma layoff, blasting Illinois with 47 points and 680 yards. So far Logan Marchi has solid numbers at quarterback for Temple but the Bulls should have a clear edge in the running game. USF BY 24 FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2017 BOISE STATE (-13½) Virginia 7:00 PM The Broncos bounced back with a win last Thursday but a long winless ATS streak on the blue turf continued. Brett Rypien didn t play but Montell Cozart has proven to be a capable veteran backup at quarterback. After a poor showing against Indiana, Virginia moved to 2-1 with Kurt Benkert delivering a record setting passing day against Connecticut. Matching last season s win count already is a nice step for Bronco Mendenhall s second season in Charlottesville however the schedule the rest of the way will be a challenge. This is the first road game of the season for the Cavaliers but in a matchup of two teams that are struggling to run the ball, the underdog is alluring and if Rypien is cleared to return the price will be even higher. BOISE BY 7 Utah (-2½) ARIZONA 9:30 PM The Wildcats are off to a 2-1 start with a pair of dominant wins and a narrow loss against a quality Houston team as Rich Rodriguez has the program in line for a turnaround season. These teams played an even statistical game last season but Utah won by 13 in Salt Lake City. Utah is 3-0 but the squad has mostly been untested with BYU in a down year and the Utes less than dominant against two marginal foes. Last season s win was the first in five years for Utah in this series and there are some similarities in these offenses as quarterbacks lead both teams in rushing. Arizona has much more experience and could take a big step this week despite this line looking out of place comparing last season s results. ARIZONA BY 7 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2017 Wake Forest (-4) APPALACHIAN STATE The Mountaineers had a tough time in their Sun Belt opener only winning at Texas State, actually out-gained by more than 100 yards and needing a big defensive stand in the final seconds. After failing vs. Georgia in its first big non-conference test, this opportunity comes at home. Wake Forest is 3-0 with dominant numbers, outscoring foes but the schedule has been soft and turnovers have helped the cause. John Wolford has efficient numbers leading the Demon Deacons but he hasn t needed to throw often. Expect a great showing from Appalachian State with last week s results creating a favorable underdog price with a 0-3 ATS squad dogged against a 3-0 ATS squad, generally a play-on spot. APP ST BY 7 Duke (-3) NORTH CAROLINA After a tough 0-2 start to the season North Carolina delivered a dominant win last week over a decent Old Dominion squad on the road. This rivalry game carries some meaning as these squads could be headed towards the bowl bubble with wins likely tough to come by in the ACC season. Duke is off to a 3-0 start with wins over Northwestern and Baylor but this will be the team s first road game, albeit a nearby one. Duke won last season but the last Chapel Hill meeting was a rout for the Tar Heels who own a great home record under Larry Fedora despite losing a pair of home games already this season. Chazz Surratt has great numbers outplaying Brandon Harris at quarterback for the Tar Heels and North Carolina still has great potential on offense. Duke s defense has looked impressive but the schedule hasn t been as tough as it sounds. NORTH CAROLINA BY 4 Michigan (-10) PURDUE 3:00 PM Jeff Brohm has installed immediate positive change for the Purdue offense with an encouraging 2-1 start to the season for a program that last topped three wins in David Blough has completed 76 percent of his passes this season and the Boiliermakers could test a highly ranked Michigan defense. The Wolverines haven t had a lot of offense so far this season and the defensive numbers deserve some suspicion given the schedule and all three games being in Ann Arbor. These teams haven t played since 2012 and Michigan hasn t been in a lot of need to score scenarios this season. The Wolverines were perhaps a bit flat last week and could deliver a better showing this week, though quarterback Wilton Speight remains a difficult option to support at a high favorite price. MICHIGAN BY 14 GEORGIA TECH (-7½) Pittsburgh 11:20 AM The Panthers played pretty tough with Penn State two weeks ago but could not keep up hosting Pittsburgh last week. Considered an ACC Coastal threat after back-to-back solid 8-5 campaigns the Panthers are in danger of digging a deep September hole with the offense really struggling. In fairness Penn State and Oklahoma State might be two of the nation s best teams as the Panthers could carry some value moving forward. Pat Narduzzi is 2-0 vs. Georgia Tech and the Yellow Jackets have had a disrupted start to the season with a painful loss in the opener and having last week s game with UCF cancelled. Pittsburgh isn t as bad as it looked last week but with brutal numbers from the quarterback position so far and little chance of matching the Yellow Jackets on the ground, this is a tough matchup. GT BY 14 Penn State (-13) IOWA The Nittany Lions won last season hosting Iowa and so far this has been a dominant team, albeit through three unthreatening home games. Iowa has been tested with tight games all three weeks but the Hawkeyes are 3-0 and looking like a possible threat in the Big Ten West behind sophomore quarterback Nathan Stanley who has already thrown 10 touchdown passes after NFL draft pick C.J. Beathard managed just 17 all last season. Iowa was out-gained in this game last season and the gap between these offenses is still likely fairly significant. Iowa isn t a home underdog often but they failed in the lone instance last season and the strong numbers for Stanley through marginal competition hides that this is still a team with a lot of new pieces and has struggled with the ground game at 3.8 yards per rush despite that generally being the key for Kirk Ferentz. PENN STATE BY 21 CLEMSON (-34½) Boston College The Tigers have cleared two big early tests winning in a defensive grind with Auburn and putting up 47 last week to outpace Louisville. Next on the schedule is a game at Virginia Tech in a rematch of the ACC Championship as this certainly could be a flat spot. Boston College has had a lot of competitive games in this series until a loss at home last season and the Eagles have endured a tough schedule in a 1-2 start to the season. Anthony Brown has more interceptions than touchdowns and the Eagles have gained just 3.5 yards per rush. Boston College should feature a respectable defense but certainly last week s game with Notre Dame at home carried more meaning for the program and it was a much more competitive game than the final result represented. With neither team in an ideal spot, trusting the Tigers is the easier option. CLEMSON BY 38 FLORIDA STATE (-11) NC State The Wolfpack have enjoyed a lot of success in this series and after an underwhelming 2-1 start, this game offers a huge opportunity for a marquee win for an experienced roster. Florida State has endured an unusual start to the season with a huge opening game with Alabama that slipped away and included the loss of their star quarterback. The Seminoles have had the past two games postponed amidst Hurricane Irma and now are on the field for a critical ACC opener 21 days since they last played a game. The Seminoles should feature one of the nation s best defenses and this team can still play its way into the national picture but ultimately it is hard to know what to expect from freshman James Blackman. Supporting the underdog in a season-making opportunity makes sense at this price. FSU BY 4 GEORGIA (-6½) Mississippi State Part of the reason Georgia received strong support as one of top contenders in the SEC East this season was drawing the Bulldogs in one of the two games with the West. That no longer looks like an ideal pull with the Bulldogs off to a dominant 3-0 start highlighted by last week s 37-7 win over LSU. Georgia has quality wins over Appalachian State and Notre Dame as Kirby Smart s squad has impressed defensively. An early injury to Jacob Eason hasn t deterred the team yet with Jake Fromm stepping in successfully and Georgia remains a team with great potential in the backfield led by Nick Chubb. Matching what Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams have done for Mississippi State will be a challenge with Fitzgerald a potential Heisman dark horse already accounting for 12 touchdowns. After beating LSU in 2014 for the only win in that series since 2000 the Bulldogs didn t have a letdown, actually beating then #6 Texas A&M the next week but this year s team now has to go on the road vs. an unfamiliar foe they haven t faced since Smart s Alabama defenses never lost to Mississippi State in his eight years as defensive coordinator, allowing just over 8 points per game. UGA BY 14

3 SOUTH CAROLINA (-8) Louisiana Tech The Bulldogs came through with a huge win last week beating 2016 Conference USA champion Western Kentucky It was not the offensive display those squads had in a pair of meetings last season as the Bulldogs have been limited on offense this season, completing just 51 percent of passes and gaining 4.2 yards per rush. The Gamecocks failed at home last week in a golden opportunity to move to 3-0. They not only lost to Kentucky but they also lost star wide receiver Deebo Samuel to injury as the team couldn t generate some of the big plays that carried them to quality wins in the first two weeks. Laying a lot of points with South Carolina carries some risk even though this looks like a Louisiana Tech squad that has dropped in caliber significantly from last season. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 13 TENNESSEE (-26) Massachusetts Massachusetts is 0-4 on the season but every game has wound up competitive, outscored by just 31 points combined and never by more than 10. The challenge is escalated this week on the road vs. a SEC foe but Tennessee enters this game off a difficult defeat, losing on a Hail Mary in a huge SEC East game at Florida last week. The Volunteers were lucky in a comeback win in the opener but Butch Jones and company may look to pour it on for a confidence-building win if the opportunity is there. Massachusetts might be out of gas in another tough road test TENNESSEE BY 31 West Virginia (-19½) KANSAS The Mountaineers have recovered from a tough loss in the opener with Virginia Tech with back-to-back blowout wins but the competition has been very light. Feeling like there may be some promise ahead in 2017 in the midst of a long term rebuild Kansas has had discouraging losses to the MAC the past two weeks and they look certain to be dogged in every Big XII game. The Jayhawks lost in Morgantown last season and 49-0 in the last home meeting two years ago. If a pair of MAC squads can top 40 on the Jayhawks the prospect of facing Will Grier and Justin Crawford isn t promising. Kansas could have some late season value as they did last season covering in the final three games but supporting this group right now simply isn t a reasonable choice. WEST VIRGINIA BY 24 Florida (-2½) KENTUCKY The Gators scored perhaps a season-saving win last week to sit on top of the SEC East ahead of the team s first road game of the season. Florida won 45-7 hosting the Wildcats last season but they narrowly escaped two years ago in Lexington Coming off a bowl breakthrough season in 2016 Kentucky is quietly 3-0 with a pair of road wins. Kentucky hasn t won S/U in this series since 1986 for 30 consecutive defeats and this will be one of the lowest spreads in that run with Kentucky only covering once in the last 10 meetings. The offense has been limited for the Wildcats but the defense has impressed with just 46 points allowed through three games. Off big wins on both sides the series history should hold. FLORIDA BY 7 MARYLAND (-4) Central Florida 2:00 PM The Terrapins are 2-0 on the season with an impressive win at Texas standing out. With 114 points Maryland s offense has delivered on the ground with an outrageous 8.0 yards per rush so far this season. Kasim Hill now leads the offense after starter Tyrrell Pigrome was injured and the defense could be suspect following allowing 30 points per game last season and sitting near that clip this season despite facing a FCS foe already. Momentum for a great season opening win has been lost with the past two games cancelled for UCF. The Knights haven t played since August 31 but this is a matchup they will be motivated for having lost in a very competitive double-overtime game hosting Maryland last season. UCF BY 3 LOUISVILLE (-38½) Kent State The Cardinals again fell short against Clemson, and the lopsided final score probably could have been worse as Louisville allowed over 600 yards and the Cardinals only scored seven points through three quarters. Kent State has scored just three points vs. FBS competition this season as the Flashes are in a tough spot in the fifth season under Paul Haynes as improvement was expected. MAC play will offer better opportunities as the schedule has been brutal including also facing Clemson in Week 1. Louisville seems like a risky team to lay points with given that the defense has allowed 110 points this season but the Cardinals scored 70 and 59 against smaller conference foes last season. Kent could find the scoreboard enough to cover with an inflated spread and a possible letdown for the Cards. LOUISVILLE BY 35 EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2½) Ohio 1:00 PM The Bobcats scored a power 5 win over Kansas last week at home, bouncing back after losing badly on national TV vs. Purdue. Last season s win for the Eagles in this series was a huge turning point for the program as it marked the first time Eastern Michigan had won two MAC games in a season since The Eagles are 2-0 this season heading into their MAC opener, off last week after scoring a win over Rutgers in Week 2. For a pair of teams squarely in the MAC race this is a key crossover game with little margin for error in what figures to be tightly packed conference races. This situation seems to favor the host, a program that was so bad for so long that they still don t draw great valuation against a more proven Ohio program. The stats slightly favored Ohio last season but that was in Athens. EM BY 4 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-2½) Miami, OH It is hard to envision a more depressing defeat than Miami s fate last week. Looking to snap a losing streak vs. rival Cincinnati the Redhawks led throughout only to watch a 17-6 lead disappear in the final three minutes with pressure clearly showing in some terrible late decisions. Even with the tough breaks Miami had a throw to the red zone late that was nearly completed and then had to watch the officials puzzlingly picking up the pass interference flag that was on the ground. Central Michigan bested Kansas two weeks ago with a great offensive showing but last week fell back to earth with a lopsided loss at Syracuse. Miami won in this matchup last season with clear advantages in a late season home matchup. This situation should favor the host with Miami s offense disappointing so far. CM BY 7 VIRGINIA TECH (-26) Old Dominion 1:00 PM In a big opportunity to host an ACC team Old Dominion was wiped out last week in a lopsided loss vs. North Carolina. The Monarchs remain on track to compete well in Conference USA but this will be a difficult follow-up test for a team that has had to replace a lot of key players from last season s 10-win squad. An early deficit was easily overcome by the Hokies last week to move to 3-0. Next week s game with Clemson looms large as Virginia Tech looks to make a move back to the national consciousness. The statistics for new quarterback Josh Jackson are glowing through three weeks but the Hokies have been held in check on the ground as Travon McMillian leads the team with only 121 rushing yards. The Old Dominion defense could offer some resistance and this looks like a spot to fade the heavy favorite. VT BY 17 Georgia State (-3) CHARLOTTE 3:00 PM These winless teams grade as two of the very worst in the nation. Charlotte lost against North Carolina A&T last week surrendering over 400 yards and committing three turnovers against FCS competition. Georgia State lost to FCS Tennessee State in the opening week before getting shutout by Penn State last week. Georgia State is in a coaching transition but does have some returning players from a team that was reasonably competitive despite a 3-9 record last season. The Panthers have been a strong ATS performer on the road in their short FBS history but the Panthers also have a prominent home game up next week as Charlotte has a shot. CHARLOTTE BY 3 INDIANA (-23) Georgia Southern Sitting at 0-2 Georgia Southern seems likely to fall to 0-4 by early October with this tough matchup and facing one of the Sun Belt favorites to open the conference season. Georgia Southern regressed considerably in the first season under Tyson Summers and this year s squad lacks experience. The Hoosiers were also off last week with a scheduled game with Florida International cancelled and this will be the last tune-up before the Big Ten season. Indiana can t afford to overlook any possible wins with a tough conference slate upcoming and the quarterback situation will be worth watching. Senior Richard Lagow started slowly vs. Virginia and gave way to Peyton Ramsey who led the team the rest of the way. A program that was successful with an option attack has struggled changing schemes, rushing for just 2.6 yards per carry so far this season. INDIANA BY 27 BUFFALO (-3) Florida Atlantic After spending much of the week after the competitive loss to Wisconsin in Madison, Florida Atlantic returned home and picked up a dominant 45-0 win vs. FCS competition. Buffalo also had a competitive showing with a Big Ten West foe this season and the Bulls have impressed defensively with only 48 points allowed in three weeks despite facing two 2016 bowl teams. Buffalo won when these teams met in Boca Raton in 2015 but the Owls have gone through a transformation since then while Buffalo hasn t been as competitive since Lance Leipold s first season. Going back on the road after a hectic two weeks isn t likely ideal for Florida Atlantic with Buffalo s experienced defense looking like a threat. BUFFALO BY 7 NEBRASKA (-14) Rutgers Allowing two early defensive touchdowns is impossible to overcome but Nebraska now sits in a desperate spot coming off a humiliating home loss. Rutgers is an ideal draw given the struggles the Knights had last season but this year s team has offered some promise and will enter this game confident coming off last week s dominant FBS win. Kyle Bolin and Tanner Lee both have lousy numbers as plugging in a transfer quarterback isn t always as smooth as expected. Rutgers didn t win a Big Ten game last season but Nebraska s rebuilding defense will be at risk. Ultimately a Huskers bounceback is worth supporting after a tough early slate and this line would have been twice as high before the season started. NEBRASKA BY 21 MIAMI, FL (-13) Toledo A month into the season Miami will finally play its first FBS game of the season after Hurricane Irma forced the postponement of a pair of big early season road tests. Toledo visits as the final game ahead of the ACC season and a foe that is more formidable than a usual tune-up test from the MAC. The Rockets are 3-0 with 138 points scored but also 88 points allowed this season. A Rockets squad with at least nine wins five of the past six seasons will embrace this opportunity as the program upset Arkansas two years ago and lost by just two at BYU last season. With a new quarterback and some unproven players Miami could be at risk this week. MIAMI BY 10

4 Washington (-10) COLORADO 9:00 PM These teams have matching 3-0 marks following meeting in last season s Pac-12 championship. Washington won that game and the Huskies remain a national contender though with no credit given for a very light opening schedule. Washington hasn t run the ball with dominance so far this season averaging just 4.3 yards per rush while Colorado s defense deserves credit for holding its two FBS foes to just three points each. The light early slates offer many questions about the capability of these teams but the Buffaloes have little experience back from last season s defense as the early numbers are surprising and likely unsustainable. Look for Washington to assert itself as a national threat this week. WASHINGTON BY 24 NEW MEXICO STATE (-18) Utep 7:00 PM The opening blowout loss at Oklahoma was forgivable but UTEP has offered uncompetitive outings at home the past two weeks as well. The Miners fired their offensive coordinator last weekend but it may be just a short term move ahead of sweeping changes for the program. Losing quarterback Ryan Metz has been a great challenge but against far from elite defenses the production has been among the worst in the nation. New Mexico State has enjoyed an encouraging start to the season sitting at 1-2 but with single-score defeats against Troy and Arizona State. Tyler Rogers has 10 touchdown passes to lead the offense and the defense has offered some hope for improvement this season. Supporting UTEP in this situation on road isn t advised but laying more than two touchdowns with a program that has 12 wins since 2012 is also hard to stomach. NEW MEXICO STATE BY 21 NAVY (-11½) Cincinnati The Bearcats have shown some potential on defense and sitting at 2-1 despite the struggling offense makes for a promising start to the Luke Fickell era in Cincinnati. Last week s win was a comeback for the ages to retain the Victory Bell and now facing a third straight road game could make for a challenging emotional spot. Navy and Cincinnati haven t yet met as AAC foes and the Midshipmen have had two weeks to prepare for this game following a narrow win in the conference opener. Navy may not have the same potential on offense as last season s unit that scored 38 points per game but a veteran defense could improve after a season of regression in The Bearcats look like a team to fade after last week s miracle. NAVY BY 17 OHIO STATE (-40) Unlv UNLV s opening loss to Howard was inexcusable but the Rebels might continue to find attractive pricing moving forward because of it. UNLV delivered an impressive win at Idaho two weeks ago and has had two weeks to game plan for trying to create its own historic upset. Last week s win is likely what one can expect from the Buckeyes in an early season lull in the schedule after a pair of big games to start the season. The Buckeyes weren t threatened but also led by just 10 well into the second half, lacking great energy. The Big Ten opener is up next and another flat performance should be expected at an even greater price this week. It might be hard to get great focus from the Buckeyes especially with an early start game. OSU BY 35 Notre Dame (-3½) MICHIGAN STATE 7:00 PM Michigan State is 2-0 looking for a bounce-back season after a big fall in The Spartans haven t lit up the scoreboard but the defense has impressed in beating two MAC squads before a bye week ahead of this big series. Michigan State won early last season at Notre Dame before both teams went on to have miserable seasons. Notre Dame has done significant late scoring this season to pad the numbers in wins vs. Temple and Boston College. The Irish were just short of a 3-0 start and this will be a fourth big game in four weeks and a second straight road game. The Spartans have had a lot of success in this series that seems to mean more to the Big Ten school but this is a very short number given that the Spartans haven t faced anyone of substance yet. NOTRE DAME BY 7 WYOMING (-7) Hawai i 9:15 PM The Warriors have had two weeks in between road games making a trip to Wyoming this week with what should be a hungry Cowboys squad. After a great 2016 season Wyoming has struggled with just 43 points scored and really not being even competitive in a pair of big games with Iowa and Oregon. Hawai i won when these teams last met in 2014 but Wyoming was 6-1 at home last season, though not close in last week s home game with the Ducks. Hawai i is often undervalued on the road with the long travel factored in but this team has competed well offensively, gaining 5.5 yards per rush which makes for an appealing underdog. WYOMING BY 3 TULSA (-12½) New Mexico 1 The Lobos have lost a pair of tight games the past two weeks and they should expect to be dogged the next two games as 1-4 looks realistic for a squad down to backup quarterbacks. Tulsa presents a difficult matchup with the Golden Hurricane winning in this matchup two years ago. Tulsa enters this game off a narrow loss to Toledo in a wild affair featuring 105 points. Like New Mexico, Tulsa likely deserves better than 1-2 start but the reality is one these 2016 bowl teams will leave this game 1-3. New Mexico s ability to run the ball makes them a threat as a double-digit underdog as Tulsa has allowed 155 points in three games. New Mexico played Thursday to allow for extra days ahead of this game as well. TULSA BY 7 LSU (-23½) Syracuse The Orange bounced back with win over Central Michigan last week and a prolific passing attack will seek a major upset this week against a well regarded defense. Two years ago LSU had trouble pulling away in this matchup with a win at Syracuse and the emotional state of the Tigers could be questioned after a stunning blowout loss last week against Mississippi State. Last week LSU allowed 465 yards and 5.9 yards per rush, unheard of numbers against LSU in the recent history of the program as a bounce-back should be expected. Danny Etling only has one touchdown pass and just 58 percent completions but the opportunity should be there this week as LSU s defense will force quick possessions from the pass-happy Orange attack and the Syracuse defense will wear down. LSU BY 27 TROY (-15½) Akron 5:00 PM It seemed like Akron might have caught Iowa State in a favorable situation last week but the Zips were handily outclassed, though it was still a onescore game into the second half. Troy was tested on the road last week but held on to open the Sun Belt season 1-0 vs. a potentially improved New Mexico State squad. Two veteran quarterbacks face off for offenses that lean towards passing the ball. Troy has a huge opportunity with LSU up next on the schedule as this could be a dangerous game. TROY BY 11 MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (NL) Bowling Green Brent Stockstill couldn t go for the Blue Raiders last week and backup John Urzua struggled as Middle Tennessee State followed up the big win over Syracuse with a lopsided loss at Minnesota. Bowling Green won 10 games in 2015 including beating two Big Ten schools but the program has fallen on tough times, now 0-3 with lopsided losses to the Big Ten as well as FBS South Dakota. Bowling Green lost by 20 in this matchup last season although the yardage was nearly even. If Stockstill is out again the Blue Raiders will be tough to support, although Bowling Green quarterback James Morgan has completed just over 42 percent of his passes this season. MTSU BY 10 Auburn (-18½) MISSOURI Following the hard fought loss to Clemson Auburn was not at its best last week. Fortunately playing FCS Mercer the Tigers were able to overcome five turnovers to avoid a colossal upset, mired in a one-score game into the fourth quarter. Jarrett Stidham only had five incomplete passes last week but he has as many interceptions as touchdowns as Auburn s quarterback as buzz as potential Heisman dark horse feels comical even this early in the season. After a disappointing SEC opener Missouri made some staff changes but the result last week was even worse, losing 35-3 at home against Purdue. The Tigers are already an early candidate for being one of the biggest disappointments in the SEC as year two for Barry Odom seemed to offer some promise. Allowing 43 points against a FCS foe in the opener should have been a red flag but the offense scored 72 under Drew Lock. Look for Auburn to have better bounce-back potential. AUBURN BY 21 HOUSTON (-6) Texas Tech Texas Tech nearly let a huge lead slip away last week as there are still major concerns for the defense. Ahead of a very tough Big XII opener the Red Raiders hit the road for a dangerous game in Houston. Both of these teams have just two games under their belt as Major Applewhite is 2-0 in his coaching debut. These coaches were opposing quarterbacks in the Big XII in the late 90s and early 00s and this is a big non-conference test on both sides. Houston is in a transition but many prominent players remain from a team that went 22-5 the past two years, now 6-0 vs. power five schools counting this season s narrow win over Arizona. With some concerns arising after a big revenge win, the Red Raiders may be vulnerable this week as this is the most prominent game of the season for the Cougars. HOUSTON BY 8 SMU (-4½) Arkansas State SMU competed well at TCU last week, leading 19-7 early before falling apart. This could be a dangerous game on the schedule with Arkansas State hungry for an opportunity after playing right with Nebraska in a seven-point loss and losing a chance vs. Miami to the storm. Arkansas State has been consistently successful for nearly a decade with only one losing ATS season since Arkansas State posted nearly 500 yards against Nebraska and SMU has allowed 102 points in three games this season. Look for the Red Wolves to be a threat in this game with last week s closer than the final score defeat likely a tough one to take for the Mustangs. SMU BY 3 Alabama (-18½) VANDERBILT This game wasn t expected to be one of the bigger games on Alabama s schedule but this might be one of the top ranked Tide s toughest tests until November. Vanderbilt has impressed with a 3-0 start and the defense has allowed just 13 points with last week s narrow win over Kansas State a huge win for Derek Mason in his fourth season in Nashville. The Commodores could easily slide to 3-3 despite the great start as they have Florida and Georgia following this very difficult game. These teams haven t met since 2011 and while Vanderbilt hasn t won since 1984 in this series they have had ATS success with a run. Alabama has lost ATS the past two weeks and next week s game with Mississippi likely carries more weight since the Rebels have been a recent nemesis, accounting for half of Alabama s losses the past two years. ALABAMA BY 14

5 TULANE (-4) Army Tulane lost against Navy two weeks ago but they handled the triple-option with some success in a tight game. Last week the Wave were overmatched at Oklahoma playing without their QB but this could be a favorable opportunity at home. Army lost hosting Tulane two years ago and the Wave look like a team that can compete in the AAC with Willie Fritz featuring a strong track record. Army will have a tough time matching last season s 8-win season and last week s game with Ohio State was a big draw, with the Knights hanging around into the second half. This will be a 2nd straight road game and Army still has just four S/U road wins since TULANE BY 6 OKLAHOMA STATE (-12½) Tcu The Cowboys have dominated in a 3-0 start, making noise last week with a blowout win at Pittsburgh. Mason Rudolph has 11 touchdowns and over 1,100 yards already this season as a serious Heisman candidate but the Cowboys will be tested in the middle of the season. TCU is 3-0 after overcoming a slow start last week and the Frogs will be out to avenge ugly losses the past two seasons in this series, including allowing 541 yards last season in a 31-6 defeat at home. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 16 WESTERN KENTUCKY (-9½) Ball State 2016 Conference USA champion Western Kentucky sits 0-1 in league play after a tough narrow loss last week. It has been a difficult transition season so far as one the top scoring offenses in the nation in recent years has been held in check with just 70 points through three weeks. Both teams lost to Illinois already this season but Ball State was much closer to victory in their matchup and the Cardinals have won back-to-back games, though last week s FCS victory wasn t terribly impressive. BALL STATE BY 3 NORTH TEXAS (-10) Uab 5:30 PM The Mean Green gave Iowa a competitive game last week but it was a second straight defeat. Mason Fine has good numbers leading the offense but he left last week s game to injury as the ground attack may be leaned on. UAB s roster is light on experience after sitting out the past two years but the Blazers delivered a nice win last week. Going on the road could be more of a challenge and the two wins this season have come against a FCS foe and a team transitioning to the FBS level. NORTH TEXAS BY 13 Texas San Antonio (-13) TEXAS STATE These programs entered the FBS level in the same season but have met just once, in 2012 with the Roadrunners winning Following a win over Baylor UTSA survived a flat spot last week with a dominant FCS win, sitting at 2-0 and looking like a threat in Conference USA. Dalton Sturm is completing 81 percent of his passes for a great start. Texas State has covered the past two weeks, giving Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State a tough game last week as the Bobcats could be in line for improvement this season even if the offense hasn t offered great potential. UTSA BY 10 San Diego State (-3½) AIR FORCE South Florida has been pegged as the top group of five threat but now with two Pac-12 wins San Diego State certainly has accomplished more heading into the Mountain West season. Besting Arizona State is nice but a win over Stanford certainly deserves attention as Rocky Long s typical strong running game and quality defense have carried the Aztecs. Handling that success could be a challenge with some tough games ahead. Air Force held its own at Michigan last week in a tight low scoring game. These teams last met in the 2015 MWC Championship with the Aztecs winning SDSU BY 3 Texas A&M (-2½) Arkansas At A&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas The Aggies have the top turnover margin in the nation yet it has been a struggle for the 2-1 Aggies, stuck in tight games vs. lesser competition the past two weeks since blowing a huge lead in the opener vs. UCLA. Texas A&M won last season in this matchup but quarterback play has been a challenge with Kellen Mond connecting at just a 50 percent clip. Arkansas played closer with TCU than the 28-7 final suggests and with two weeks to prepare the Razorbacks should be at their best this week even if the early numbers have been unintimidating. ARKANSAS BY 3 RICE (-2½) Florida International The Owls have taken on a difficult schedule starting 1-2 and this should be a manageable opportunity to climb to 2-0 in Conference USA play though QB Sam Glaesmann is a question mark after leaving last week s game. FIU has had a long layoff with last week s game cancelled. These teams last met in 2014 with a Rice win in Miami and the Owls appear to have more promise this season with this being a transition year for FIU. Rice has been committed to running the ball with 122 attempts in three games, gaining 4.8 yards per rush and that should be a formula for success. RICE BY 10 SOUTH ALABAMA (-4) Idaho 1:00 PM The Jaguars took their lumps against Mississippi and Oklahoma State and looked good last week in a FCS victory. Late last season Idaho bested South Alabama in Moscow though the Jaguars had statistical edges. After a win vs. FCS competition, Idaho s final year at the FBS level looks unlikely to match last season s success. The defense has surrendered 81 points the past two weeks and quarterback Matt Linehan isn t quite on last season s pace with four interceptions already. USA BY 10 UL-Monroe (NL) UL-LAFAYETTE 4:00 PM The road team has had great success in this rivalry as Louisiana-Monroe will be seeking its first win after competitive showings vs. Memphis and Southern Miss, losing by 8 and 11 respectively. Louisiana squeaked out a FCS win in the opening week but has allowed 111 points in two losses since. The offense has been there but the defense has run out of gas, and QB Jordan Davis was hurt last week. Coming off a 30-3 late season loss in this matchup last season the Warhawks should be highly motivated for this game. A bowl bid was on the line in that 2016 finale for Louisiana. UL-M BY 10 Oklahoma (-26) BAYLOR 5:30 PM Baylor has actually won S/U in three of the last six meetings with the Sooners but this spread will be the highest in nearly a decade in the series. When the schedule came out this looked like a potentially dangerous road game but Oklahoma has performed like one of the top teams in the nation while Baylor s rebuilding effort appears severe with a 0-3 start. Last week s game with Duke was a step in the right direction with a competitive showing and value will be with Baylor in many of the upcoming Big XII games. The Bears are still running the ball with some success but the passing game has been a disaster behind both quarterbacks. Oklahoma has the potential to post another huge number and the price isn t quite high enough for the Bears to be alluring enough yet. OU BY 31 Usc (-16) CALIFORNIA The Trojans haven t looked like the national playoff threat some expected to see as they have been in tight battles in two of three games and the Stanford win isn t looking quite as impressive this week. Sam Darnold has six interceptions already despite being the preseason Heisman favorite and California s defense has impressed under new head coach Justin Wilcox. North Carolina and Mississippi might not be as strong as they were two years ago but the Bears being 3-0 through a difficult early schedule is one of the great surprise stories of the season. Pac-12 play will be difficult and Cal figures to be a double-digit underdog at least each of the next three games facing some of the league heavyweights. USC BY 20 WASHINGTON STATE (-28) Nevada 5:00 PM It hasn t always been pretty but Washington State is 3-0 and very likely to be 4-0 when they host USC next Friday night. Nevada competed well against Northwestern and Toledo in a competitive games but last week fell at home against FCS Idaho State. Three turnovers were an issue and the passing game has been shaky so far this season as the Wolfpack have not matched the past success under the pistol. This could be a dangerous game for an erratic Cougars program in-between big Pac-12 clashes while Nevada enters this game motivated off a poor showing. Washington State has lost 10 home games the last three seasons combined. WSU BY 17 Oregon (-14½) ARIZONA STATE 9:00 PM The Ducks are 3-0 for Willie Taggert but the major substance in the schedule is still to come. This game should provide Oregon another big scoring opportunity as the Ducks haven t faced a quality defense yet. Arizona State is on a two-game slide but the Sun Devils are a threat to keep pace, rallying back from a big early deficit last week to force a late tie in an eventual sevenpoint loss at Texas Tech. Given that his team will likely need to keep throwing, Manny Wilkins is on pace to have a highly productive season and he is yet to throw an interception in 101 attempts. Oregon faces a second straight road game and the defense has shown some wear in the second halves of games this season, while Arizona State s fourth quarter scare in the opener has kept the team playing 60 minutes since. OREGON BY 9 STANFORD (-7½) Ucla 9:30 PM Losing to USC and San Diego State in back-to-back weeks isn t overly damaging for Stanford but the statistics in both games offers some concern. While USC posted huge numbers on the Stanford defense, the Cardinal picked up just eight first downs last week, throwing for only 80 yards and providing three turnovers. The momentum gained with UCLA s huge comeback over Texas A&M has been lost with last week s narrow loss at Memphis. Josh Rosen will continue to post big numbers but this will be a second straight road game and actually the first home game for the Cardinal. Off back-to-back defeats David Shaw should have a great game plan in order with the Cardinal winning the past nine meetings (8-1 ATS) in this series including winning a shootout two years ago and a defensive grind last season. The lack of balance on offense should be an issue for the Bruins in this matchup as Stanford can bounce back. STANFORD BY 17 Utah State (-3) SAN JOSE STATE These squads figure to rate near the bottom of the Mountain West and wins in league play will be tough to come by, making this a great opportunity on both sides. The Idaho State team that Utah State beat in week 2 just beat Nevada last week for a promising sign and Wisconsin and Wake Forest look like quality teams this season as the Aggies could recover from a 1-2 start, though a huge game with BYU at home is waiting next week. San Jose State has faced a very tough non-conference schedule, beating a Cal-Poly squad that rates as a quality FCS team but also taking losses to three quality squads. Last week s game with Utah featured a bit of a misleading final as the Utes tacked on a few late scores. SAN JOSE STATE BY 3