Advanced Metrics Matchup Guide

Transcription

1 Advanced Metrics Matchup Guide 11/19/15 All weekly metrics are based on same season data. These metrics are designed to give you an early glimpse at what offenses will face when they step onto the field. They look at the strengths and weaknesses of the offense, and compare/contrast to the strengths and weaknesses of the defense. The goal is to identify mismatches. Mismatches may be of less interest to us if they get priced correctly by the DFS site. But if pricing is not adjusted properly, each week there should be some value to be found, and this metrics matchup guide will put us in the right direction early in the week to identify such value. The first page includes an efficiency based Head to Head matchup. AO is Away Offense, while AD is Away Defense. HO and HD are similar. This page also includes pace of play on the far right column. YPPT is yards per point, YPPA is yards per pass attempt. Most other metrics are easily understood. The next several pages discuss individual positions in greater detail. And lastly, there is a play tendency report. This looks at how often teams call pass plays vs run plays in close games. But it also examines when winning or losing. This should allow you some insight into game script. Good luck this week with your lineup analysis and choices, and I ll be back with the podcast and article later this week. Best, Warren

2 Efficiency Based Head to Head Matchup Red Zone 3rd Down "Yds Per" Stats YPPT YPPA Total O v D Total Efficiency ST Passing Pass Pro Rushing A H A O H D H O A D A O H D H O A D A O H D H O A D A O H D H O A D A O H D H O A D A H A O H D H O A D A O H D H O A D A O H D H O A D 11/19/2015 Tennessee Jacksonville /22/2015 Washington Carolina /22/2015 Oakland Detroit /22/2015 Dallas Miami /22/2015 Indianapolis Atlanta /22/2015 St. Louis Baltimore /22/2015 NY Jets Houston /22/2015 Green Bay Minnesota /22/2015 Tampa Bay Philadelphia /22/2015 Denver Chicago /22/2015 Cincinnati Arizona /22/2015 San Francisco Seattle /22/2015 Kansas City San Diego /23/2015 Buffalo New England

3 DEFENSES VS QUARTERBACKS Def Vs QB Def Vs QB Passing Rushing Fantasy Fantasy per Game Passing Rushing Fantasy Fantasy per Game A Off H Def CP YPA TD Int Sk Att Yds TD FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt H Off A Def CP YPA TD Int Sk Att Yds TD FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt 11/19/2015 Tennessee Jacksonville 67% Jacksonville Tennessee 64% /22/2015 Washington Carolina 57% Carolina Washington 64% /22/2015 Oakland Detroit 70% Detroit Oakland 64% /22/2015 Dallas Miami 63% Miami Dallas 65% /22/2015 Indianapolis Atlanta 65% Atlanta Indianapolis 61% /22/2015 St. Louis Baltimore 65% Baltimore St. Louis 70% /22/2015 NY Jets Houston 62% Houston NY Jets 57% /22/2015 Green Bay Minnesota 63% Minnesota Green Bay 58% /22/2015 Tampa Bay Philadelphia 64% Philadelphia Tampa Bay 69% /22/2015 Denver Chicago 61% Chicago Denver 61% /22/2015 Cincinnati Arizona 58% Arizona Cincinnati 64% /22/2015 San Francisco Seattle 69% Seattle San Francisco 63% /22/2015 Kansas City San Diego 65% San Diego Kansas City 57% /23/2015 Buffalo New England 61% New England Buffalo 58%

4 DEFENSES VS RUNNINGBACKS Def Vs RB Rushing Receiving Fantasy Fantasy per Game Rushing Def Vs RB Receiving Fantasy Fantasy per Game A Off H Def YPA Tot Yds TD Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt H Off A Def YPA Tot Yds TD Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt 11/19/2015 Tennessee Jacksonville Jacksonville Tennessee /22/2015 Washington Carolina Carolina Washington /22/2015 Oakland Detroit Detroit Oakland /22/2015 Dallas Miami Miami Dallas /22/2015 Indianapolis Atlanta Atlanta Indianapolis /22/2015 St. Louis Baltimore Baltimore St. Louis /22/2015 NY Jets Houston Houston NY Jets /22/2015 Green Bay Minnesota Minnesota Green Bay /22/2015 Tampa Bay Philadelphia Philadelphia Tampa Bay /22/2015 Denver Chicago Chicago Denver /22/2015 Cincinnati Arizona Arizona Cincinnati /22/2015 San Francisco Seattle Seattle San Francisco /22/2015 Kansas City San Diego San Diego Kansas City /23/2015 Buffalo New England New England Buffalo

5 DEFENSES VS WIDE RECEIVERS Def Vs WR Receiving Vs #1 WR Vs #2 WR Vs Other WR Fantasy Fantasy per Game Def Vs WR Receiving Vs #1 WR Vs #2 WR Vs Other WR Fantasy Fantasy per Game A Off H Def Tgt Rec Yds TD Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt H Off A Def Tgt Rec Yds TD Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt 11/19/2015 Tennessee Jacksonville Jacksonville Tennessee /22/2015 Washington Carolina Carolina Washington /22/2015 Oakland Detroit Detroit Oakland /22/2015 Dallas Miami Miami Dallas /22/2015 Indianapolis Atlanta Atlanta Indianapolis /22/2015 St. Louis Baltimore Baltimore St. Louis /22/2015 NY Jets Houston Houston NY Jets /22/2015 Green Bay Minnesota Minnesota Green Bay /22/2015 Tampa Bay Philadelphia Philadelphia Tampa Bay /22/2015 Denver Chicago Chicago Denver /22/2015 Cincinnati Arizona Arizona Cincinnati /22/2015 San Francisco Seattle Seattle San Francisco /22/2015 Kansas City San Diego San Diego Kansas City /23/2015 Buffalo New England New England Buffalo

6 DEFENSES VS TIGHT ENDS Def Vs TE Def Vs TE Receiving Efficiency Fantasy Fantasy per Game Receiving Efficiency Fantasy Fantasy per Game A Off H Def Tgt Rec Yds TD Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt H Off A Def Tgt Rec Yds TD Eff Rk Pa/G Yd/G FantPt DKPt FDPt FantPt DKPt FDPt 11/19/2015 Tennessee Jacksonville Jacksonville Tennessee /22/2015 Washington Carolina Carolina Washington /22/2015 Oakland Detroit Detroit Oakland /22/2015 Dallas Miami Miami Dallas /22/2015 Indianapolis Atlanta Atlanta Indianapolis /22/2015 St. Louis Baltimore Baltimore St. Louis /22/2015 NY Jets Houston Houston NY Jets /22/2015 Green Bay Minnesota Minnesota Green Bay /22/2015 Tampa Bay Philadelphia Philadelphia Tampa Bay /22/2015 Denver Chicago Chicago Denver /22/2015 Cincinnati Arizona Arizona Cincinnati /22/2015 San Francisco Seattle Seattle San Francisco /22/2015 Kansas City San Diego San Diego Kansas City /23/2015 Buffalo New England New England Buffalo

7 Play Tendency Report All Scores When Winning 1 Score Games When Losing Team Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk NWE % 28 65% % 31 61% % 32 72% % 30 73% 3 SDG % 31 67% % 32 65% % 31 65% % 15 67% 18 DEN % 26 64% % 27 57% % 30 65% % 32 76% 1 MIA % 30 65% % 6 44% % 29 64% % 29 72% 4 NOR % 21 62% % 25 56% % 28 64% % 13 66% 20 NYG % 20 61% % 23 55% % 27 63% % 17 67% 16 BAL % 25 64% % 28 57% % 26 62% % 14 66% 19 OAK % 24 63% % 26 57% % 25 62% % 20 70% 13 JAX % 27 64% % 18 49% % 24 62% % 27 72% 6 CLE % 29 65% % 13 46% % 23 62% % 21 70% 12 DET % 32 70% % 29 59% % 22 62% % 31 75% 2 ATL % 17 60% % 10 45% % 21 60% % 11 65% 22 PHI % 15 59% % 14 46% % 20 60% % 16 67% 17 HOU % 23 63% % 20 50% % 19 60% % 19 69% 14 GNB % 18 60% % 21 52% % 18 59% % 22 70% 11 TEN % 16 60% % 15 46% % 17 59% % 10 65% 23 ARI % 12 56% % 17 49% % 16 58% % 25 71% 8 PIT % 13 58% % 30 59% % 15 58% % 1 55% 31 NYJ % 11 56% % 9 45% % 14 57% % 23 70% 10 WAS % 19 60% % 12 46% % 13 57% % 28 72% 5 CIN % 7 54% % 16 47% % 12 56% % 24 71% 9 KAN % 14 58% % 22 53% % 11 56% % 18 69% 15 IND % 22 63% % 8 45% % 10 55% % 26 71% 7 STL % 4 53% % 4 42% % 9 55% % 4 58% 29 DAL % 10 55% % 24 55% % 8 54% % 6 59% 27 CHI % 9 55% % 5 43% % 7 54% % 5 58% 28 TAM % 6 53% % 3 42% % 6 52% % 8 61% 25 MIN % 2 51% % 2 42% % 5 51% % 12 65% 21 SEA % 5 53% % 19 50% % 4 51% % 3 56% 30 CAR % 1 49% % 11 45% % 3 51% % 1 55% 31 BUF % 3 52% % 1 37% % 1 50% % 9 62% 24 SFO % 8 55% % 7 45% % 1 50% % 7 60% 26 NFL AVG 41% 59% 50% 50% 42% 58% 34% 66%