ATS PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS BOWL GAMES 12/27-12/29

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1 Volume 36 Bowl Game Issue 1 $30 December 27-29, 2017 Hop from Ft Worth to San Antonio ATS PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS BOWL GAMES 12/27-12/29 BOWL GAMES MATCHUP STATS Overall Off (Yds) Def (Yds) Home/Away Gm# Team SU W/L ATS AF-AA Ru Pa Tot Ru Pa Tot TO ToP SU W/L ATS AF-AA 240 TEX MIZZ UVA NAVY VT OKST STAN TCU WSU MSU WAKE TAM NCST ASU UK NW NMSU USU SU W/L: Straight-Up Win/Loss Record ATS: Against the Spread Record AF-AA: Average Points For - Average Points Against Ru: Rushing Yards Pa: Passing Yards Tot: Total Yards TO: Turnovers ToP: Time of Possession

2 TEXAS BOWL Missouri -2.5 & 60 vs Texas Over Total by 11 Wednesday, December 27, 2017, 9:00 NRG Stadium, Houston, TX - Opening Odds: Missouri - 3, O/U 60.5 It could be a shootout in the Texas Bowl between the Texas Longhorns and Missouri Tigers. The Longhorns come into this game averaging just over 29 points per game, while the Tigers are putting up more than 39 per contest. Texas is 6-6 SU this season and 7-4 ATS. They averaged 29.2 points per game this season, while giving up just over 21 per contest. Texas went under the total in 9 of their 12 games this season. Left tackle Connor Williams and safety DeShon Elliott will skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. They could be joined by Malik Jeff and Kris Boyd. The Longhorns have a major controversy at quarterback, as it is unclear who will start the bowl game. Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger were splitting the reps in bowl practice. Ehlinger started the last game against Texas Tech, so he would figure to have the edge. He has had more mobility, as he ran it 29 times for 208 yards and one touchdown. Missouri finished 7-5 SU this season and they were 7-5 against the spread. They had a good season under head coach Barry Odom with a potent offense led by quarterback Drew Lock who led the country with 44 TD passes. Missouri scored over 39 points per game but they gave up nearly 32 points per contest. The Tigers went over in 7 of their 12 games this season. The Missouri defense wasn t very good this season and they will have a new defensive coordinator for the bowl game, as secondary coach Ryan Walters will take the job. One concern for Missouri is that offensive coordinator Josh Heupel left to take the head job at Central Florida. It could be that tight ends coach Joe Finley calls the plays in the game. The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. the SEC. The Tigers are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games in December. The Under is in the Longhorns last 57 games overall. The Over is 5-2 in the Tigers last 7 nonconference games. This is an interesting bowl game between two teams that should put up a lot of points. Texas should not have much trouble moving the ball against a poor Missouri defense and the Tigers are definitely going to move the ball against Texas. The Longhorns should be going with Ehlinger at quarterback and his mobility should give the Tigers trouble. On the other side, there is no question that Lock should be able to move the ball effectively. I will take this game over the 60 total. Texas Bowl Score Prediction: Missouri 37, Texas 34 MILITARY BOWL NAVY Pk & 55 Over Virginia by 4 + Over Total By 11 Thursday, December 28, 2017, 1:30 Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD - Opening Odds: Pick & O/U 55 It is rare in a bowl game where a team has a true home field advantage, but that will be the case in the Military Bowlbeing played at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. While Navy will have the home field edge, Virginia will have some crowd support, as Charlottesville, Virginia is just a couple hours away. Virginia and Navy both come into this game on losing streaks, as Virginia has lost three straight, while Navy has also dropped three in a row. The Cavaliers finished the season at 6-6 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. Virginia averaged about 24 points per game but gave up nearly 27 per contest. The Cavaliers are led on offense by quarterback Kurt Benkert who threw for 3,062 yards and 25 TDs. He goes up against a Navy defense that allowed nearly 28 points per game this season. The Cavaliers are led on defense by Quin Blanding and Micah Kiser, who are both expected to go in the 2018 NFL Draft. Kiser has led the team in tackles the last three seasons, while Blanding was second. The Midshipmen also finished at 6-6 SU and they were ATS. They scored about 29 points per game, while giving up about 28 per contest. They went under the total in 8 of their 12 games this season. Navy is all about running the football, as they average 343 yards per game, 2nd in the country. Quarterback Zach Abey threw for just 805 yards this season but he ran for 1,325 yards. This game will be all about Virginia finding a way to slow down the run and they were 78th in the country this season against the run, giving up yards per game. Navy s defense isn t that good but they benefit from the offense controlling the clock and keeping them off the field. The experience edge in bowl games is with Navy, as they play on a regular basis, while Virginia hasn t had a bowl game since 2011 and Virginia has not won a bowl game since The edge should be with Navy simply because they are playing at home. I am taking the Midshipmen at a pick because of the home field edge, but it is hard to get too excited about taking either of these teams. I think there is more value on the total. I am surprised the total is in the 50 s, as neither of these teams has a good offense. Virginia has gone under in two of their last three games, while Navy has gone under in their last three contests. I will also go under the total in this game. Military Bowl Score Prediction: Navy 24, Virginia 20

3 CAMPING WORLD BOWL Virginia T. +5 & 62 Over Oklahoma St by 4 + Over Total by 10 Thursday, December 28, 2017, 5:15 Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL - Opening Odds: Cowboys -5.5, O/U 62. The high scoring offense of the Oklahoma State Cowboys goes up against the stout defense of the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Cowboys averaged 46.2 points per game this season, third-best in the nation, while the Hokies allowed just 13.5 points per contest, fifth-best in the country. The Cowboys are led on offense by quarterback Mason Rudolph who threw for 4,553 yards this season, while the Hokies are led on defense by linebacker Tremaine Edwards who had 102 tackles and 5.5 sacks this season. Both the Cowboys and the Hokies went 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS this season and each team is ranked in the top 25 in the country, as the Cowboys are ranked No. 19, while the Hokies are ranked No. 22. The Cowboys are all about offense, as they scored 556 points this season. They averaged 7.4 yards per play. They can move the ball through the air with Rudolph and they can also run it effectively, as they averaged 4.8 yards per carry. The Cowboys will be going up against a very good Virginia Tech defense that was 15th against the run and 21st against the pass. The Hokies were 5th best in the country in fewest points allowed. On the other side of the ball, the Hokies were very balanced, as they were 61st in passing yards and 63rd in rushing yards. Quarterback Josh Jackson is just a redshirt freshman but he was very effective this season, throwing for 2,743 yards with a quarterback rating of He goes up against a weak Oklahoma State defense that allowed 361 points this season. The Cowboys gave up an average of 5.5 yards per play. Oklahoma State was particularly bad against the pass, ranking 119th in the country. The Cowboys averaged just over 46 points per game this season while giving up about 30 per contest and as you might expect they went over the total in 9 of their 12 games. The Hokies averaged nearly 29 points per game this season, while giving up just over 13 per contest and somewhat predictably they went under the total eight times, over just three times. I lean toward Virginia Tech plus the points in this game but I think the better play is on the total. The Cowboys simply can t stop anyone and Virginia Tech really didn t stop any good teams this season, as they allowed 31 points to Clemson and 28 to Georgia Tech and Miami. This total opened up at 63 and was bet down to 62 but bettors snatched up that 62 quickly and the odds are back up to 63. I just can t see either of these two quarterbacks getting slowed down by the opposing defense, so I will take the 5.5 points with Virginia Tech and take the game over the total of 62. Camping World Bowl Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Oklahoma State 34 ALAMO BOWL TCU -2.5 & 49 Over Stanford by 11 + Under Total by 6 Thursday, December 28, 2017, 9:00 Alamodome, San Antonio, TX - Opening Odds: TCU -2.5, O/U 49. It is a matchup of top 15 teams in the Alamo Bowl. The game features two offenses that average more than 30 points per game and offenses that love to run the ball. The Cardinal have Bryce Love who ran for nearly 2,000 yards, while TCU has four players who rushed for over 250 yards, including quarterback Kenny Hill. TCU is hoping that their top running back Darius Anderson is available for this game. He is listed as a game-time decision according to head coach Gary Patterson. Anderson had 768 yards and eight TDs this season. TCU comes into this game at 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS. They are scoring 33.2 points per game, while giving up 17.6 points per game. They went under in 10 of their 13 games this season. Stanford is 9-4 SU and 6-6 ATS. They are scoring 32 points per game, while giving up just over 21 per contest. The Cardinal will have offensive coordinator Mike Bloomgren for this game even though he has taken the head coaching job at Rice. Bloomgren said he will stay to run the offense in the bowl game. What we do know is that he will be calling the number of Bryce Love a lot. Love averaged 8.3 yards per carry this season. He has had a 50+ yard rush a total of 12 times this season, an NCAA record. This game is likely going to come down to how TCU does stopping the run because we know Stanford is going to feed Love on a regular basis. TCU was 4th in the country against the run, allowing less than 100 yards per game. How can Stanford win unless Love has a big game? It seems unlikely he is going to have a huge game against the TCU defense. This is the key matchup for me and it is why I like the Horned Frogs in this game. I also think there could be some value on the total. TCU has been a really good team to bet under the total this season, going under in 10 of their 13 games, so it is a little surprising that the total line is going up. Probably because of the dome setting. Stanford doesn t have an explosive offense. This has all the looks of a game where both teams look to run the ball and that means tick, tick, tick. I am taking TCU -2.5 and will also take the Alamo Bowl to go under the 49 total. Alamo Bowl Score Prediction: TCU 27, Stanford 16

4 HOLIDAY BOWL Michigan St +2 & 46 Over Wash. St by 6 + Under Total by 6 Thursday, December 28, 2017, 9:00 SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA - Odds: Washington State -2, O/U 45 The Michigan State Spartans will look to slow down the high scoring offense of the Washington State Cougars. The Spartans gave up just 20.3 points per game this season, 23rd best in the country, while the Cougars scored 31.4 points per game, 42nd in the country. Both of these teams are ranked in the Top 25, as the Spartans are ranked No. 16, while the Cougars are ranked No. 18. Both Washington State and Michigan State went 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS this season. The Cougars averaged just over 31 points per game, while giving up about 24 points per contest. The Cougars went under in 7 of their 12 games this season. Washington State is led by quarterback Luke Falk who threw for 3,593 yards. The problem for the Cougars is that you never know what you are going to get with the offense. In their last six games they scored just 3 points in a loss to California, just 28 in a win over Colorado, 37 in a loss to Arizona, just 24 against Stanford, 33 against Utah and only 14 against Washington. It also doesn t help that Washington State is without their top two receivers in Tavares Martin Jr. and Isaiah Johnson-Mack who were both dismissed from the team. The Cougars played in the Holiday Bowl last season and were beaten by a Minnesota team that appeared to be in disarray. Washington State head coach Mike Leach is hoping that this year s Holiday Bowl turns into a shootout because that type of game would favor his squad. The Spartans scored just over 23 points per game and gave up just over 20 per contest. Michigan State relies heavily on quarterback Brian Lewerke who threw for 2,580 yards. He was also second on the team in rushing with 486 yards and five touchdowns. Michigan State went under the total in 7 of their 12 games this season. Can you trust a Mike Leach team laying points? The Cougars don t have their top two receivers and despite the big numbers Falk has put up this season, he has been wildly inconsistent. I like the Spartans + 2 in this contest. The total is also of interest, as despite what Leach has said, this could be a low scoring game. The Spartans are very good on defense and surprisingly, the Cougars are also good on defense. I will also take this contest under the 45 total. Holiday Bowl Score Prediction: Michigan State 23, Washington State 17 BELK BOWL Wake Forest -3 & 64 Over Texas AM by 11 + Over Total by 7 Friday, December 29, 2017, 1:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC - Opening Odds: Wake Forest -3, O/U 64 How will the Texas A&M Aggies handle playing for an interim head coach as they take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons? The Aggies hired Jimbo Fisher and signed him up to a huge 10-year, $75 million dollar deal to replace the fired Kevin Sumlin, but Fisher will not be coaching the bowl game. Jeff Banks, who is the special team s coordinator and tight ends coach, will be the interim coach for the bowl game. The Demon Deacons went 7-5 SU this season and ATS. Wake Forest averaged over 33 points per game this and gave up more than 26 per contest, so this game could be high scoring. The Demon Deacons have quarterback John Wolford who is a dual-threat. He led the team with 10 rushing TDs and was second on the team in rushing with 615 yards. He had a rushing TD in eight of his first nine games this season. Wolford also threw for nearly 3,000 yards this season. A&M went 7-5 SU this season and ATS. They will be playing in a school-record ninth straight bowl game but they have lost their last two bowl games. They will have an interim head coach, so it's yet to be seen how the team will respond to the entire situation. The Aggies feature quarterback Nick Starkel who goes against a rotten Wake Forest secondary that was 103rd in the country against the pass. Starkel is 2-2 as a starter since his return, throwing 10 TDs against five picks. The Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. The Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Aggies are ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC. The obvious question in the Belk Bowl is how motivated will Texas A&M be to win for an interim coach. I lean toward taking Wake Forest in this contest simply because of all of the uncertainty on the A&M sideline and the fact that Wake Forest was excellent this season in the red zone, scoring 47 times in 50 chances. They go against a bad Texas A&M defense in the red zone, as the Aggies were tied for 112th in the country in red zone defense. So I like my chances with the Demon Deacons QB Wolford -3. I think there's another play in this game on the total. Wake Forest has a good dualthreat quarterback and A&M has shown no ability to stop those types of quarterbacks this season. Overall, the A&M defense simply isn t very good, as they gave up more than 28 points per game. The one thing that Wake Forest can do is score, as they averaged more than 33 points per game this season. I can t see anything other than a shootout in this contest, so I will go over the total of 64 in this game. Belk Bowl Score Prediction: Wake Forest 41, Texas A&M 30

5 SUN BOWL NC State -6 & 59 Over Arizona St by 13 + Over Total by 10 Friday, December 29, 2017, 3:00 Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX - Opening Odds: NC State -6, O/U 59. The Sun Devils fired head coach Todd Graham but they have allowed Graham and his staff to coach the bowl game. New head coach Herm Edwards has been focused on recruiting and he has not been involved in bowl preparation. Arizona State finished 7-5 SU and 7-5 ATS, while NC State was 8-4 SU and ATS. The Sun Devils scored almost 32 points per game this season but they couldn t stop anyone, as they gave up about 31 points per contest. Quarterback Manny Wilkins threw for 2,918 yards with 17 TDs and five interceptions. The question for Arizona State is how motivated they will be to send out Graham with a win. Most of the time when a new coach is hired, the outgoing coach does not stay on to coach the game and an interim coach takes over. That is not the case here. Even though Graham did a quality job with ASU, he is not a coach who really gets a lot of love from his players, so it seems unlikely they are going to have a ton of motivation to play for him in this contest. The Sun Devils will also need a new defensive coordinator, as Phil Bennett announced that he will be leaving after this game. NC State averaged just over 30 points per game this season, while they gave up about 25 points per game. The Wolfpack are led by Bradley Chubb who is the ACC defensive player of the year. He is second in the country with 25 tackles for loss. Chubb is a lock to go in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft and many people believe he will be the first defensive player taken. There is a chance that Chubb might decide to skip the bowl game to avoid injury. On offense the Wolfpack are led by quarterback Ryan Finley who threw for 3,196 yards and running back Nyheim Hines who ran for 1,040 yards. Why is Arizona State going to show up with a big effort in this game? The coaching staff is undergoing massive changes on both sides of the ball and yet Graham is still in charge. It makes no sense. I am not thrilled about laying nearly a touchdown with NC State but I want no part of ASU in this game, so I will take the Wolfpack -6. It is hard to envision anything other than a high scoring game. The one thing that ASU can do is score, as they averaged almost 32 points per game. They went over the total in five of their last six games. The ASU defense is going to have a new coordinator next season, so they aren t going to stop NC State. Regardless, both teams should have a good chance to score at least 30 points and that will mean I will take this game over the total. Sun Bowl Score Prediction: NC State 41, Arizona State 28 MUSIC CITY BOWL Northwestern -7 & 51 Over Kentucky by 13 + Over Total by 10 Friday, December 29, 2017, 4:30 Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN - Opening Odds: Northwestern -7, O/U 51. Kentucky comes into this game at 7-5 SU but they are just 3-9 ATS, while Northwestern is 9-3 SU and 9-3 ATS. Northwestern finished in second place in the West Division and comes into this game having won seven straight games, but they could have a serious letdown as they were hoping for a better bowl game. Northwestern is getting some definite respect from the oddsmakers, as they are a 7-point favorite. Kentucky comes into this game having lost three of four and four of six and it was ugly in the last two games, as they were blown out by Georgia and Louisville. Kentucky is scoring just about 26 points per game and giving up about 28 per contest. They went over in six of their 12 games this season. The Wildcats were good against the run this season, as they allowed about 162 yards per game but they were terrible against the pass, allowing yards per contest. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson is the key player, as he threw for 2,809 yards this season with 15 TDs but he also threw 12 interceptions. Northwestern would like to run the ball with Justin Jackson who had 1,154 yards but the one thing Kentucky can do pretty well is stop the run. On the other side of the ball Kentucky will be giving it to Snell and hoping he has a big day. It won t be easy, as Northwestern has the No. 9 rush defense in the country. Kentucky should throw the ball with Stephen Johnson against the worst pass defense in the Big Ten but Johnson only threw for about 2,000 yards this season. Northwestern forced 23 turnovers but committed 18. Kentucky has lost their last three bowl games. Kentucky is ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Kentucky is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games on grass and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. Northwestern is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Northwestern is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. If you look simply at the stats, then the choice in this game is definitely Northwestern, as they have the better record, the better offense and the better defense. They also have almost all of the trends in their favor. The possibility of a major letdown playing in the Music City Bowl is possible, as they were hoping for much more. Nevertheless, I have to go with the stats in lieu of a possibility. Therefore, I'm laying the points with NU, and also playing the game over the total. Music City Bowl Score Prediction: Northwestern 37, Kentucky 24

6 ARIZONA BOWL New Mexico St +5 & 61 Over Utah St by 6 + Over Total by 9 Friday, December 29, 2017, 5:30 Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ - Opening Odds: Utah State -4, O/U 61. The New Mexico State Aggies will have a big edge in crowd support in the Arizona Bowl, as they take on the Utah State Aggies. The Aggies will be playing in a bowl game for the first time in 57 years and their fans have snatched up tickets for this game in Tucson, Arizona, about four hours away from Las Cruces, New Mexico. New Mexico State is coming into this bowl game with a lot of excitement surrounding the program and the team is relatively healthy and eligible. New Mexico State went 6-6 SU and ATS this season. They averaged almost 30 points per game and gave up just over 30 points per contest. They actually went under in seven of their 12 games this season. New Mexico State has a potent passing attack that was 4th in the country, averaging yards per game. Quarterback Tyler Rogers threw for 3,825 yards this season. Utah State went 6-6 SU and 6-6 ATS. They averaged 31 points per game and gave up 27 per contest. They went over in nine of their 12 games this season. Utah State was balanced, as they averaged yards per game through the air and yards per game on the ground. The Aggies were solid against the pass this season, giving up just yards per game but they were awful against the run, giving up yards per game. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings between New Mexico State and Utah State. New Mexico State is ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. Utah State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Sun Belt. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. The Over is 22-8 in New Mexico State s last 30 non-conference games. The Over is in their last 53 games on grass. The Under is 20-9 in Utah State s last 29 games on grass. I think both the side and the total are worth playing in this contest. These teams look very evenly matched, as they both went 6-6 on the season. There is no question that New Mexico State is going to have a huge edge in crowd support and in a close game that can be a factor. I will take the points with New Mexico State in a game I think they can win outright. I also think the total is worth playing, as neither of these teams has a defense. They both allowed a lot of points per game and I can t see either offense getting slowed down. I expect this total to go higher before game day, as it would not surprise me to see it move to 64. As of this writing the total is 61 and I will take the game over that number. This could also be a good game to make a 2 teamer with New Mexico State plus the points and the game over the total. Just saying. Arizona Bowl Score Prediction: New Mexico State 38, Utah State 32 Bowl Games Featured TV Network Time / ET Texas Bowl Texas vs. Missouri 12/27/2017 9:00 PM Military Bowl Virginia vs. Navy 12/28/2017 1:30 PM Camping World Bowl Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma St. 12/28/2017 5:15 PM Alamo Bowl Stanford vs. TCU 12/28/2017 9:00 PM Holiday Bowl Washington St. vs. Michigan St. FS1 12/28/2017 9:00 PM Belk Bowl Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M 12/29/2017 1:00 PM Sun Bowl NC State vs. Arizona St. CBS HD 12/29/2017 3:00 PM Music City Bowl Kentucky vs. Northwestern 12/29/2017 4:30 PM Arizona Bowl New Mexico St. vs. Utah St. CBS Sports Network 12/29/2017 5:30 PM