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1 weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 10 NFL WEEK 9 NCAAF WEEK 10

2 Football Weekly INDEX Rotation Schedule...2 NFL VI Picks...3 VegasInsider NFL Strength Ratings...4 NFL Top Weekly Trends...5 NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown...6 NFL Offensive Stats with Most Meaning So Far in NFL Matchups...10 College Football VI Picks...15 VegasInsider College Football Strength Ratings...16 College Football Head-to-Head Series Breakdown...18 College Football Matchups...22 College Football Top Weekly Trends...35 Betting on Hot Spread Teams Late in the Season...36 Football Line Moves...37 WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY Thanks for downloading issue #10 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. This week it is most important that we distinguish the word FOOTBALL, as for the first time, our sister product, the Vegas Insider Basketball Weekly is available for download as well. See the VI website for details as we tipoff the basketball season with coverage of the NBA s opening week. Look for college hoops to join the ranks in next week s basketball issue. But, since you re reading this, we know you re a football enthusiast, so let s get back to it. Issue #10 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly covers the 10th week of the college schedule and the 9th week of the NFL slate. We have several great features on tap for you in this week s issue. For the NFL, our feature article takes a look at various offensive stats compiled so far this season and their impact on straight up & against the spread success. You might be surprised by the findings. In the college ranks, we break down the hottest spread covering teams so far in 2012 and analyze whether or not it s too late for you to take advantage of their prowess. For those of you following along all season, picks were hit or miss last week, some hot, some not. VI Jason came back down to earth hard in college but stayed very hot in the NFL. His 2-8 mark allowed VI Jim to retake the in-house lead after he correctly named eight out of 10 winners himself. Jason tallied seven wins in the NFL, including a sweep of his three NFL Best Bet selections. Over the last two weeks, Jason is now ATS in the NFL games. In the first few weeks of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly we fielded many questions from readers wanting to know which STRENGTH RATING would be the best one to follow. Our answer on the best one was vague, as we wanted you to follow the POWER RATINGS, EFFECTIVE STRENGTH, and FORECASTER to form your own opinion. We were convinced that the BETTORS RATINGS would be the best fade option and remain steadfast to that opinion since they are based heavily on public thinking. However, the EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS have clearly differentiated themselves this season as the cream of the ratings crop. After 7-3 weeks in both college and pro, they are now a combined 19-games over.500 for the season. So continue to follow them and profit. Thanks again for reading. Your continued support has allowed us to expand our offerings even more quickly than we could have hoped. Keep your thoughts & feedback coming. Best of luck this week from the entire Vegas Insider Staff! VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 1

3 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 SCHEDULE Football Weekly ROTATION SCHEDULE NFL WEEK 9 continued continued THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2012 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, RICE KANSAS CITY VIRGINIA P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL P: 9:30AM C: 11:30AM E: 12:30PM 396 TULANE SAN DIEGO NC STATE HAWAII ARIZONA ST P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM WEEK 10 P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM ESPN 398 FRESNO ST THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1, OREGON ST ARIZONA E MICHIGAN MISSOURI P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM ESPNU P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 400 UCLA OHIO U FLORIDA NEW MEXICO VIRGINIA TECH NEBRASKA 0-1 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:0-5 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPN P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC 402 UNLV MIAMI FL MICHIGAN ST SAN DIEGO ST ADDED GAME 353 TCU P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM CBSC 307 MIDDLE TENN ST P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 404 BOISE ST P: 6:15PM C: 8:15PM E: 9:15PM ESPNU 354 WEST VIRGINIA -7-7 ADDED GAMES 308 W KENTUCKY ILLINOIS FLA ATLANTIC P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBSC FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2, OHIO ST NAVY WASHINGTON PITTSBURGH FLA INTERNATIONA P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN2 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM NBC P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 310 CALIFORNIA NOTRE DAME SOUTH ALABAMA TX-SAN ANTONIO TROY SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2012 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FSN 311 PENN ST LOUISIANA TECH TENNESSEE P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 361 SAN JOSE ST ARKANSAS ST PURDUE P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM 313 AIR FORCE IDAHO NORTH TEXAS P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM CBSC 363 SMU LA LAFAYETTE ARMY P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM CBSC P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM 315 AKRON UCF LA MONROE P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM 365 CONNECTICUT KENT ST P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPNU NFL WEEK VANDERBILT SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2012 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU 367 W MICHIGAN BYES: NE, NYJ, SF, STL 318 KENTUCKY P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 415 DENVER MASSACHUSETTS C MICHIGAN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 369 MIAMI OHIO CINCINNATI N ILLINOIS P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 417 ARIZONA TEMPLE BUFFALO P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ABC 371 OLE MISS GREEN BAY LOUISVILLE P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 419 MIAMI BOSTON COLLEGE GEORGIA P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 373 SYRACUSE INDIANAPOLIS WAKE FOREST P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 421 BALTIMORE HOUSTON CINCINNATI -7-5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FSN 375 WASHINGTON ST CLEVELAND EAST CAROLINA P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 423 BUFFALO IOWA UTAH P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 377 UAB HOUSTON INDIANA P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM 425 CAROLINA GEORGIA TECH SOUTHERN MISS P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 9:30AM C: 11:30AM E: 12:30PM 379 MEMPHIS WASHINGTON MARYLAND P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM 427 DETT CLEMSON MARSHALL P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2 381 MICHIGAN JACKSONVILLE DUKE P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 429 CHICAGO TULSA MINNESOTA P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 9:20AM C: 11:20AM E: 12:20PM 383 OKLAHOMA ST TENNESSEE ARKANSAS P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 431 MINNESOTA NEW MEXICO ST KANSAS ST -8-9 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM P: 9:30AM C: 11:30AM E: 12:30PM 385 TEXAS SEATTLE AUBURN P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 433 TAMPA BAY STANFORD TEXAS TECH P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM FX 387 TEXAS A&M OAKLAND COLORADO P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 435 PITTSBURGH TEXAS ST MISSISSIPPI ST P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM 389 KANSAS NY GIANTS UTAH ST P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM FSN 437 DALLAS ALABAMA BAYLOR P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM CBS 391 OKLAHOMA ATLANTA LSU P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 343 COLORADO ST IOWA ST MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2012 P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM 393 OREGON PHILADELPHIA WYOMING P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM FOX P: 5:40PM C: 7:40PM E: 8:40PM ESPN 394 USC NEW ORLEANS THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

4 Football Weekly NFL VI PICKS VI Jim (50%) (54%)* VI Jason (56%) (58%)* VI Paul (46%) (45%)* Power Ratings (47%) Effective Strength (51%) November 4, (419) MIAMI at (420) INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) Forecaster (47%) Bettors Ratings (44%) Consensus (45%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Indianapolis Miami Miami* Indianapolis Miami Indianapolis Indianapolis Indianapolis NFL VI PICKS November 4, (419) MIAMI at (420) INDIANAPOLIS - TOTAL (42.5) UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER November 4, (423) BUFFALO at (424) HOUSTON (-10) Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston Buffalo Houston November 4, (423) BUFFALO at (424) HOUSTON - TOTAL (47.5) OVER* UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER November 4, (431) MINNESOTA at (432) SEATTLE (-5) Seattle* Minnesota* Minnesota* Minnesota Seattle Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota November 4, (431) MINNESOTA at (432) SEATTLE - TOTAL (39) UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER November 4, (433) TAMPA BAY at (434) OAKLAND (-1) Tampa Bay Oakland* Oakland Oakland Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Oakland Oakland November 4, (433) TAMPA BAY at (434) OAKLAND - TOTAL (45.5) OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER OVER November 4, (437) DALLAS at (438) ATLANTA (-4) Dallas* Atlanta* Dallas* Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta November 4, (437) DALLAS at (438) ATLANTA - TOTAL (47) UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER VI Jim says Minnesota appears to be starting to hit the wall after the unexpected good start. Teams are figuring out Christian Ponder and the offense, not as if it ever really got hot anyhow. This week s game at Seattle might be the toughest defense his team has faced to date, allowing just 16.7 PPG. Plus, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson seems to be getting more and more comfortable as the season wears on. With him producing and Marshawn Lynch pounding it on the ground, this is suddenly a balanced team on the upswing. That is not good news for Minnesota, as the Vikings are allowing a balanced 156 yards on the ground and 222 thru the air over their last three games. Throw in the difficult environment in Seattle and you have the makings for a comfortable home win. VI Jason says Efficiency is the only thing keeping Oakland from being a pretty darn good football team right now. The Raiders yards per point numbers are ranked near the bottom of the league both offensively and defensively. Frankly, I don t put a whole lot of stock into those figures because in my mind, they are often accumulated through fluke happenings. The way I see it, the Raiders are outgaining their opponents on a play-by-play basis and that is the best indicator of an eventual quality team. Tampa Bay meanwhile is getting gashed by opponents and only staying competitive because of occasional big plays in the passing game. I just don t think that type of luck will last. On top of that, this number is a slap in the face to Oakland. Look for QB Carson Palmer and RB Darren McFadden to put up big games as the Raiders roll. VI Paul says Even the spread on this Dallas and Atlanta battle tells you the Cowboys are better than their record indicates. The Falcons are 7-0, yet they lack the air of invisibility similar to Green Bay last season, with an underwhelming defense that ranks 20th at the halfway point of the season. Coincidently, the Dallas defense has been consistent all year when not placed in impossible situations by it offense, ranking fourth overall. Here is a number which is very important to think about, Because the Cowboys are such a public team, they receive few breaks from the oddsmakers. However, since 2009, Dallas is 6-1 ATS when catching 3.5 or more points. Bet the Boys to cover. VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 3

5 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFL STRENGTH RATINGS VEGASINSIDER Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in VegasInsider Weekly. In the chart below, you ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power NFL STRENGTH Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength RATINGS (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors Ratings (Bettors Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total. BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 301 KANSAS CITY UNDER SAN DIEGO SD DENVER DEN CINCINNATI OVER ARIZONA UNDER GREEN BAY MIAMI INDIANAPOLIS BALTIMORE OVER CLEVELAND BUFFALO OVER HOUSTON HOU 40.7 HOU 34.2 HOU CAROLINA OVER WASHINGTON WAS 31.7 WAS DETT JACKSONVILLE CHICAGO CHI TENNESSEE MINNESOTA SEATTLE TAMPA BAY TB 26.4 TB OAKLAND PITTSBURGH NY GIANTS NYG DALLAS ATLANTA ATL 27.1 ATL PHILADELPHIA NEW ORLEANS THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

6 Football Weekly NFL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS TEAMS TO PLAY ON 45.1% (437) DALLAS AT (438) ATLANTA ATLANTA IS 19-6 ATS(L25G) at Home as Fav Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(cs) ( $1240 Profit with a 45.1% ) TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST 18.6% (427) DETT AT (428) JACKSONVILLE DETT IS ATS(L50G) In November ( $1020 Profit with a 18.6% ) NFL TOP TRENDS 37.5% (431) MINNESOTA AT (432) SEATTLE SEATTLE IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) at Home AT CENTURYLINK FIELD ( $1030 Profit with a 37.5% ) 60.4% (433) TAMPA BAY AT (434) OAKLAND OAKLAND IS 4-21 ATS(L25G) as Fav AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 40%+ WINNING PCT(L25G) ( $1660 Profit with a 60.4% ) 37.5% (439) PHILADELPHIA AT (440) NEW ORLEANS PHILADELPHIA IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) as Dog Conference games ( $1030 Profit with a 37.5% ) 56.7% (431) MINNESOTA AT (432) SEATTLE MINNESOTA IS ATS(L25G) on Road Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.2 yards per play(cs) ( $1560 Profit with a 56.7% ) GAMES TO PLAY OVER 25.5% (415) DENVER AT (416) CINCINNATI DENVER IS OVER(L50G) on Road Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(cs) ( $980 Profit with a 25.5% ) GAMES TO PLAY UNDER 45.1% (301) KANSAS CITY AT (302) SAN DIEGO SAN DIEGO IS 19-6 UNDER(L25G) at Home Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(cs) ( $1240 Profit with a 45.1% ) 37.5% (427) DETT AT (428) JACKSONVILLE JACKSONVILLE IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(l50g) ( $1030 Profit with a 37.5% ) 26.7% (419) MIAMI AT (420) INDIANAPOLIS INDIANAPOLIS IS UNDER(L50G) Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per(cs) ( $1350 Profit with a 26.7% ) 22.4% (425) CAROLINA AT (426) WASHINGTON CAROLINA IS OVER(L50G) on Road Conference games ( $1230 Profit with a 22.4% ) 16.2% (433) TAMPA BAY AT (434) OAKLAND OAKLAND IS UNDER(L50G) Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(l25g) ( $750 Profit with a 16.2% ) 5 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

7 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD 6 NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN For every issue of the Vegas Insider Weekly this season, we ll take a look at each upcoming NFL matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week s breakdowns, in rotation number order. NOVEMBER 1, 2012 (301) KANSAS CITY at (302) SAN DIEGO San Diego won in Kansas City back in September and will now look to extend a 4-game home winning streak against the Chiefs on Thursday night. The secret to the Chargers success in the series has been offense, as they have scored at least 20 point in all but one of the L10 games. Even still though, UNDER the total is on a 6-2 run when these team play in San Diego. NOVEMBER 4, 2012 (415) DENVER at (416) CINCINNATI Including last season when Denver (-3) edged Cincinnati at Mile High, underdogs have been the flavor of choice in this AFC series. They have covered the spread in four straight games, and six of seven dating back to 98. The L3 times these teams have played in Cincinnati were all UNDER the total. (417) ARIZONA at (418) GREEN BAY Arizona hosted Green Bay in back-to-back weeks in 2010, first to wrap up the 09 regular season and then in the wildcard playoffs. The teams split those games with the Cardinals winning the more important one. Prior to that, the most recent meeting was in 06, when the Packers (-4) last hosted the Cardinals, winning Underdogs are on a 4-1 ATS run in this set. (419) MIAMI at (420) INDIANAPOLIS Miami and Indianapolis have only met one time since the 2006 season, but prior to that, this was a heavily trended series in the AFC. The Colts won that 09 game as 3-point road favorites, slowing a string of 8-1 ATS by underdogs. Including that game, road teams are also on a significant surge of 9-2 ATS. For good measure, OVER the total also comes in at 5-1 in the L6. (421) BALTIMORE at (422) CLEVELAND Baltimore extended its winning streak over Cleveland to nine games overall, but the Browns have covered the spread in each of the L2 matchups. Those two most recent games were in Baltimore, and now road teams are a perfect 6-0 ATS going back to November 09. UNDER the total is 4-0 in the L4 and 6-1 in L7 as well. (423) BUFFALO at (424) HOUSTON The Bills and Texans have played just twice previously in Houston and visiting Buffalo won both times. The most recent game was in 06 however, a decision. Since that game, the teams have met just one other time, at Orchard Park, a Texans victory. Road teams are ATS all-time in this AFC series. (425) CAROLINA at (426) WASHINGTON Carolina has visited Washington just one time in the L10 season, losing back in 06. The most recent meeting between these NFC foes was a year ago in Charlotte, a win for the Panthers (-3). Amazingly, that was the FIRST time the favorite covered in this head-to-head series after nine straight underdog ATS wins. (427) DETT at (428) JACKSONVILLE Since the Lions pounded Jacksonville 44-0 in the latter s inaugural season of 95, the Jaguars have responded with three straight head-to-head victories, both SU & ATS. All three of those games went OVER the total, with Jacksonville putting up 32.7 PPG on its own. Overall, favorites have covered all four previous games in this series. (429) CHICAGO at (430) TENNESSEE Chicago will be looking to extend the winning streak of road teams in its series with the Titans franchise to five straight games ATS on Sunday. The most recent game between these teams was in Chicago, a Tennessee triumph in 08. The Bears are 2-0 SU & ATS all-time in Nashville, winning by a combined total of 5 points. (431) MINNESOTA at (432) SEATTLE Minnesota has beaten Seattle in both games the teams have played over the course of the L8 seasons, once at home and once on the road. The average victory margin in those games was a whopping 22.0 PPG as well. On that front, only one of the L6 games between these teams was decided by less than 18 points. (433) TAMPA BAY at (434) OAKLAND Tampa Bay whipped Oakland in the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, but the Raiders have responded with back-to-back series wins since. The most recent meeting was in Tampa in 08, a upset win by the Raiders (+11). OVER the total is in the L6 games of this AFC-NFC set. (435) PITTSBURGH at (436) NY GIANTS Road teams have won three of the L4 meetings outright between the Steelers and Giants, including most recently in 08, a decision for New York in the Steel City. Pittsburgh won in its last trip to the Meadowlands in 04, 33-30, but the Giants covered as 10-point home dogs. In all, the G-Men have covered three straight in the series. (437) DALLAS at (438) ATLANTA In a week that seems to have many unfamiliar matchups, Dallas and Atlanta will wrap up Sunday with just their third head-to-head game since 03. That was the last time the Falcons beat the Cowboys. Favorites are on a 4-1 ATS run in this series, and OVER the total has won in three straight. NOVEMBER 5, 2012 (439) PHILADELPHIA at (440) NEW ORLEANS Philadelphia and New Orleans have played a high scoring series of late, with OVER the total converting in five straight games, with 51 being the fewest combined points scored in that span. The Saints won the most recent meeting in Philly in 09, but prior to that, the Eagles were on a run of 7-1 ATS in head-to-head play. Underdogs and road teams are both 7-3 ATS in L10 of this series. THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

8 Football Weekly NFL OFFENSIVE STATS WITH MOST MEANING SO FAR IN 2012 With the NFL heading into Week 9 of the 2012 schedule this weekend, many of the league s 32 teams have already played half of their regular season games. For most teams, their strengths and weaknesses have been defined. Their personality traits are readily distinguishable. Some teams rely heavily on their quarterbacks. Others play a ground game and lean on their defense heavier. Still others weigh heavily on the turnover game. Whatever the case, every bettor at this point, and of course the oddsmakers too, has a good idea of what a team is all about. It is at this point every year where we like to break down the statistics and find out if anything has changed in the NFL this season. For instance, for the last several years, a few key offensive stats, and a few key defensive stats typically define teams success. The more successful teams are able to generate big plays through the air, thus driving up their points scored and their yards per pass attempts numbers while limiting their yards per point offensively. This is typically a key recipe. Struggling teams have been defined by the opposite. What we do each year is tabulate the won-lost records, both outright and against the spread, of the teams that rank at the top and bottom of the NFL in various stat categories. This will generally give us a good idea of which stats are most important to success, and which are least important. We also go through the log of games and track the ATS records of teams with edges in those stats, starting in Week 4 when teams have enough games under their belt to give their season stats some credence. It is an interesting exercise to say the least, and could be an eye opener for those of you out there that still think pounding the ball on the ground and controlling possession is how to judge teams. This week we look at the offensive statistics. Next week we ll flip it to the other side and look at the key defensive numbers. As you think about the reasoning behind the records in the charts below, consider how oddsmakers might take these numbers into account when creating the great equalizer, the pointspread. POINTS PER GAME You might be thinking to yourself as you look at the chart showing the success levels of the top 5 and bottom 5 scoring teams in the league that naturally the records should be very good and very bad respectively. However, even oddsmakers are having trouble keeping up this season, as the top 5 have produced a higher than normal 64% rate against the spread. The bottom 5 is still hovering around the normal cover rate of 46%. Note however, that had you played all of the teams with offensive scoring edges in Weeks 4-8 that you would have won just 45% of your games. So while being an elite scoring team in the top 5 has proven successful ATS, simply having a scoring edge has not. YARDS PER POINT Points Per Game Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 New England Houston NY Giants Denver Atlanta Total Best (76%) (64%) 28 Seattle Kansas City Philadelphia St Louis Jacksonville Total Worst (32%) (46%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (45%) Yards Per Point Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 Houston Chicago Atlanta Green Bay New England Total Best (78%) (59%) 28 Carolina Indianapolis Dallas Philadelphia Kansas City Total Worst (34%) (38%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (57%) Many professional handicappers love the yards per point statistic because it takes into account some otherwise immeasurable factors in a football game, such as field position, turnover impact, and efficiency. Sure some of these stats are kept, but rarely are they built into any type of modeling individually. In any case, yards per point offense is almost always a high ranking stat in this study. This year is no different, with a 34% outright margin in the cumulative top 5 and bottom 5 and a 21% margin against the spread. In addition, the teams with edges in offensive yards per point compiled a record of in weeks 4-8. If you re interested, the teams with yards per point edges on this week s slate are San Diego, Denver, Green Bay, Miami, Baltimore, Houston, Washington, Jacksonville, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Atlanta, and New Orleans. VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION NFL OFFENSIVE STATS 7

9 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFL OFFENSIVE STATS 8 YARDS PER PLAY Yards Per Play Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 Washington NY Giants San Francisco Denver Tampa Bay Total Best (57%) (58%) 28 Miami San Diego NY Jets Arizona Jacksonville Total Worst (42%) (52%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (49%) The yards per play statistics quantify how powerful an offense is better than any other figure. There is nothing fluke about it since teams run about 62 plays per game, meaning 62 sample per game to build a resume on. That is why it is somewhat surprising to us that there is only a 15% difference in the winning percentage of the top 5 and bottom 5 teams in this statistical category. What is equally strange is that two of the top 5 teams have losing records after eight weeks, Washington and Tampa Bay. Still, with a 58% cover rate thus far, it s certainly not a waste of effort to at least note these teams week-in and week-out. The combined record of the teams with edges were has been just ATS to date. THIRD DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGE 3rd Down Conversion Percentage Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 Pittsburgh 51.92% New England 48.72% Atlanta 46.59% Houston 45.19% Denver 44.32% Total Best (72%) (61%) 28 Cleveland 31.53% Washington 29.90% Oakland 29.03% Cincinnati 28.41% Jacksonville 27.37% Total Worst (32%) (47%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (49%) Converting third downs is essential in NFL football, as it can be the difference in scoring on a drive or ending it early with a punt. Teams that sustain drives with third down conversions naturally have success. The combined of the top 5 teams in the NFL in this stat were SU & ATS after eight weeks, good for 72% SU & 61% ATS. However, in a one-on-one basis, teams with edges in this stat are actually a game below.500 ATS, so it has proven more fruitful to simply find the best teams and wager them. Look at the list of teams at the top, other than Pittsburgh, it s a virtual who s who of NFL success this season. TIME OF POSSESSION Time Of Possession Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 Houston 35: Pittsburgh 34: Dallas 32: San Diego 32: San Francisco 31: Total Best (60%) (51%) 28 Jacksonville 27: New Orleans 26: Tennessee 26: Cleveland 26: Baltimore 26: Total Worst (35%) (43%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (41%) Time of possession has been anything but a success predictor, as like we said earlier, most of the best teams in the league make their mark by hitting big plays through the air. Most defenses at the professional level have the speed and schemes to stop running attacks, even the best of them, so being able to keep a team off balance with big gains via the pass is essential. Houston and San Francisco are anomaly s at the top, but that makes us question their long term success prospects. That said, the Texans certainly would seem to have the quarterback and wide receivers to excel through the air as well. At this point in the season, or at least weeks 4-8, you would have actually been better off fading the teams with a better average time of possession in any given matchup. Those teams are just ATS, for 41%. RUSHING YARDS PER GAME Rushing Yards Per Game Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 San Francisco Washington Kansas City Buffalo New England Total Best (46%) (49%) 28 Jacksonville Dallas Cleveland Oakland New Orleans Total Worst (31%) (47%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (46%) Rushing yardage may be a huge part of the winning fantasy football team, but it is always a heavily overrated aspect of NFL football. This year is no exception. The top 5 rushing teams in the NFL actually combine for a losing record at this point, SU & ATS. Ask teams like Kansas City and Buffalo how much their ability to run the football has helped them win games in The other thing you ll want to note when analyzing the rushing yards per game chart is that there is very little difference at being able to run the ball when it comes to covering pointspreads. The top 5 are 49% ATS, the worst 5 are 47%. Teams with an edge on a game-to-game basis are 46%. Don t let anyone try to convince you that rushing yards are a critical stat. THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

10 Football Weekly YARDS PER RUSH ATTEMPT Yards Per Rush Attempt Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 San Francisco Washington Buffalo Kansas City Baltimore Total Best (47%) (42%) 28 Green Bay Oakland New Orleans Arizona Dallas Total Worst (47%) (42%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (44%) While the total number of yards a team gains on the ground have proven unimportant, the amount they gain per rush is even worse. In fact, if a team rushes for more yards per attempt, it s a better bet that they are on that list because teams are playing prevent defense against them and allowing free yardage. Ironically, the top 5 and bottom 5 lists combined to share identical won-lost marks both outright and against the spread. On a matchup basis, teams rushing for more yards per try were just ATS in weeks 4-8. Don t put too much emphasis on this stat category or it will hurt your profit margins. PASSING YARDS PER GAME Passing Yards Per Game Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 New Orleans Detroit Dallas Denver New England Total Best (47%) (50%) 28 San Francisco Buffalo Chicago Seattle Jacksonville Total Worst (53%) (54%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (56%) The chart illustrating the top 5 and bottom 5 teams in the NFL in terms of passing yardage per game is quite interesting in that the upper teams actually have a worse record than the bottom teams. They also cover the spread with less regularity so far this season. This is somewhat abnormal but certainly not shocking. Most of the teams that are on the top list are there because they are playing catch up week after week. Their ATS records are respectable because they are the type of back door teams that you want to keep on your radar because it is hard to put them away. On the opposite list, the worst five teams in the NFL in passing yards per game are often playing from in front, so less need to put up big numbers via the passing game, note San Francisco and Chicago. One thing that has proven reliable here is that teams that can pass for more yardage are a reasonably good bet at any number, as edge teams have compiled a record of ATS over the last five weeks. YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT Yards Per Pass Attempt Rank Team OffPPG SU W-L ATS W-L 1 Denver Tampa Bay NY Giants Washington Carolina Total Best (46%) (56%) 28 Cleveland NY Jets Kansas City Arizona Jacksonville Total Worst (30%) (47%) * Combined ATS record of teams with edges in Weeks 4-8: (50%) The yards per pass attempt top 5 list is down from recent years, at least in terms of outright success, as teams like New England, Green Bay, and New Orleans are missing. This is typically where you will find the teams with the best quarterbacks, and consequently, the best records in football. At this point in 2012, you find teams with reasonably good ATS records, but little more to show. In fact, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Carolina are oddly present on the list. Don t expect that to remain so for long. On the bottom side of the NFL ranking in PYA you will in fact find the league s worst offensive units. No surprise here. Teams on this list are just to date and almost all of them have a quarterback controversy or at least situation to deal with. The ATS record of in weeks 4-8 for teams with edges in this normally potent stat is unusual, and I wouldn t expect it to hold. Keep an eye on the teams at the top as they will be changing in all likelihood. The teams that wind up there will have been good bets in weeks 9-17, mark our words. NFL OFFENSIVE STATS 9 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

11 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 NFL MATCHUPS Football Weekly (301) KANSAS CITY [SU:1-6 ATS:2-5] AT (302) SAN DIEGO ( ) [SU:3-4 ATS:3-4] NOVEMBER 1, :25 PM on NFL - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA) Offensive Offensive Statistics Statistics KANSAS CITY [4.8] [5.9] [4.6] [8.2] SAN DIEGO [3.8] [6.3] [3.6] [6.6] NFL MATCHUPS Kansas City was supposedly desperate to change their ways after a 1-5 start and handed Brady Quinn the keys to start the Chiefs engine. A mere dozen plays into the game against Oakland, Quinn was back on the sidelines with reported concussion and K.C. was on their way to four turnovers and a loss. Kansas City has to regroup again, this time on a short week and is 3-11 ATS off a division home game. Norv Turner is certain San Diego is different than last year s club which lost six in a row. He better hope so or Turner will be looking for new work. The Chargers are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. KANSAS CITY IS UNDER(L25G) Against decent-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(l25g) SAN DIEGO IS UNDER(L25G) at Home division games SAN DIEGO IS 17-8 ATS(L25G) at Home Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(cs) (415) DENVER ( ) [SU:4-3 ATS:4-3] AT (416) CINCINNATI [SU:3-4 ATS:2-4-1] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on CBS - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH) DENVER [4.0] [7.9] [3.7] [5.9] CINCINNATI [3.9] [7.4] [4.4] [7.0] If Denver can play four quarters like they against New Orleans last the AFC West race is over and the Broncos are a real threat in their conference. Peyton Manning and the offensive is synchingup, but it was the defense that was story. Denver heads into a hornet s nest with Cincinnati struggling yet is 8-2 ATS in the first of two road encounters. The Bengals have failed to win or cover their last three games with issues on both sides of the ball. The bye week afforded them time to devote to problem solving, seeking a running game and stopping the run. Cincy is 6-15 ATS after a division defeat. CINCINNATI IS ATS(L25G) Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1 yards per attempt(cs) DENVER IS 19-6 OVER(L25G) on Road Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(cs) CINCINNATI IS OVER(L25G) All Games (417) ARIZONA [SU:4-4 ATS:3-4-1] AT (418) GREEN BAY (-11 44) [SU:5-3 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on FOX - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI) ARIZONA [3.5] [5.5] [4.1] [6.2] GREEN BAY [3.7] [6.8] [4.1] [6.3] The Packers certainly missed having six starters out of the lineup in their closer than presumed victory over Jacksonville. The defense picked up in the second half and Clay Matthews has to be thrilled taking on Arizona s sieve-like offensive line this week. Aaron Rodgers and the offense will have to do more if Green Bay is to improve upon 21-4 ATS mark off a non-conference clash. Arizona has lost four straight games after its undefeated start and the wheels seem to be falling off. They are dealing with a rash of injuries on top of any execution problems they were already enduring. The Cardinals, who have also lost their last five games against the spread, have scored just 12.3 PPG in three road contests. The Packers are 16-1 in their L17 regular season home games. GREEN BAY IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) at Home Conference games GREEN BAY IS ATS(L25G) VS NFC-WEST ARIZONA IS ATS(L10G) on Road Conference games 10 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

12 Football Weekly NFL MATCHUPS (419) MIAMI ( ) [SU:4-3 ATS:4-2-1] AT (420) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:4-3 ATS:4-3] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on CBS - LUCAS OIL STADIUM (INDIANAPOLIS, IN) MIAMI [3.7] [6.7] [3.5] [6.4] INDIANAPOLIS [3.9] [6.5] [4.8] [7.0] The Dolphins will be in a role they are extremely comfortable with, playing on the road. Miami is 15-5 ATS the last three years away from home and with a victory; they place themselves in the middle of the AFC race to the postseason. The Fins running offense has been anemic lately and could flourish with the Colts allowing 4.8 yards a carry. Miami is only 2-8 ATS after playing the Jets. Indianapolis has doubled last year s win total and has more than half the season to have it blossom. The Colts are deceiving because many consider them a young team with Andrew Luck, however, there is ample veteran leadership on this club. Indy is 0-6 ATS hosting Miami. INDIANAPOLIS IS ATS(L25G) Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS) MIAMI IS ATS(L25G) As favorite INDIANAPOLIS IS 18-7 UNDER(L25G) Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per(cs) (421) BALTIMORE ( ) [SU:5-2 ATS:2-5] AT (422) CLEVELAND [SU:2-6 ATS:4-3-1] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on CBS - CLEVELAND BROWNS STADIUM (CLEVELAND, OH) NFL MATCHUPS BALTIMORE [4.7] [6.9] [4.0] [7.1] CLEVELAND [3.9] [6.1] [4.4] [6.6] Baltimore s bye week has given them time to improve for the remainder of the season with their defensive losses and general shortcomings, which has them 28th in total defense. Joe Flacco has to elevate his play on the road, with the Ravens averaging just 15 points per contest. The Birds are 9-1 ATS off a bye. Has new ownership in Cleveland put everybody on notice? It seems so with the Browns winning two of their last three. As crazy has this sounds, look for Cleveland to pound Baltimore with Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty, with the Ravens bludgeoned for YPG in their last three. The Browns are 0-4 SU and ATS when the Purple and Black have visited. BALTIMORE IS 8-17 ATS(L25G) Against low-scoring teams averaging 17 PPG or less(l25g) BALTIMORE IS ATS(L25G) as Fav In November BALTIMORE IS UNDER(L25G) Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.0 yards per attempt(l50g) (423) BUFFALO [SU:3-4 ATS:3-4] AT (424) HOUSTON ( ) [SU:6-1 ATS:5-2] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on CBS - RELIANT STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX) BUFFALO [5.3] [6.4] [6.0] [7.2] HOUSTON [4.0] [7.1] [3.9] [5.6] The bye week for both of these AFC clubs just put off the inevitable question. How will Buffalo s 32nd rated run defense, halt Houston s No. 6 rushing attack? Coach Chan Gailey has been questioned on the defenses lack of production in spite of spending large dollars to shore this area up and his response has been, I am not interested in bucks. I am interested in production. The Bills are 17-5 ATS away after allowing 35 or more points. After a stinker against Green Bay, the Texans gave a commanding performance versus Baltimore to reestablish themselves in the AFC. This is meaningful contest to Houston, who will play four of next five away and are 15-4 ATS in conference. HOUSTON IS ATS(L25G) All Games BUFFALO IS ATS(L25G) Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per carry(cs) BUFFALO IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(l50g) 11 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

13 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 NFL MATCHUPS Football Weekly (425) CAROLINA [SU:1-6 ATS:3-4] AT (426) WASHINGTON (-3 47) [SU:3-5 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on FOX - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD) CAROLINA [4.3] [7.5] [4.1] [6.8] WASHINGTON [5.3] [7.5] [4.1] [7.6] NFL MATCHUPS It is becoming increasing more difficult to think Ron Rivera will back as Carolina s head coach next season with the Panthers 1-10 (6-5 ATS) in games decided by a touchdown or less, including eight straight setbacks. Whether it s back luck or dumb luck, Carolina finds a way to lose. The Cats are 10-1 ATS away in the second quadrant of their schedule vs. opponent off a SU & ATS defeat. With five division matchups after the bye, Washington cannot afford a 3-6 record with their break coming. The Redskins offense is surpassing expectations with RG3 leading the way, nevertheless, the 29th rated defense holds the Redskins back. The Skins are 0-9 ATS since 2008 as home favorites. WASHINGTON IS ATS(L25G) AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 30%+ WINNING PCT(CS) CAROLINA IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(cs) WASHINGTON IS 17-8 UNDER(L25G) at Home Conference games (427) DETT ( ) [SU:3-4 ATS:3-4] AT (428) JACKSONVILLE [SU:1-6 ATS:3-3-1] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on FOX - EVERBANK FIELD (JACKSONVILLE, FL) DETT [4.0] [6.7] [4.4] [6.3] JACKSONVILLE [3.8] [5.0] [4.2] [6.8] With their season about to slip away, Detroit engineered a game-winning drive against one of the best defenses in the NFL to come-from-behind against Seattle, giving them an opportunity to be.500 at the halfway juncture. All the Lions players acknowledged the importance of the victory, but only if it leads to another. Detroit is 2-17 ATS on the road facing non-division teams off two losses. Jacksonville coaches insist they are better than 1-6, if not for not doing the little things. Yet, like in life, everything counts and penalties, dropped passes or missed assignments add up to defeats. Can the Jaguars make a statement? They are 7-0 ATS having lost four out of their last five games. DETT IS ATS(L25G) In November JACKSONVILLE IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(l50g) DETT IS 20-5 OVER(L25G) Non-conference games (429) CHICAGO ( ) [SU:6-1 ATS:4-3] AT (430) TENNESSEE [SU:3-5 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 4, :00 PM on FOX - LP FIELD (NASHVILLE, TN) CHICAGO [4.3] [6.3] [3.8] [5.9] TENNESSEE [4.4] [6.4] [4.4] [7.7] Of the Bears 21 touchdowns this season, 28.5 percent have come by the defense, directly leading to three of their victories. Keeping up this pace seems impossible, but as wily as this group of Chicago defenders is, anything seems possible. Jay Cutler is not always at his best, but when needed, he s finding Brandon Marshall. Da Bears are 1-8 ATS on the road after three or more consecutive wins. The Titans are 31st in points allowed and it was this group that caused Tennessee to lose in OT at Indianapolis with late game failures. At 3-5, facing one of the best teams in the NFL, the position in not enviable, yet the Titans are ATS vs. the NFC. TENNESSEE IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(cs) CHICAGO IS 16-9 OVER(L25G) as favorite of 7 or less points CHICAGO IS ATS(L25G) as Fav Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5 PPG(CS) 12 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

14 Football Weekly NFL MATCHUPS (431) MINNESOTA [SU:5-3 ATS:3-3-2] AT (432) SEATTLE ( ) [SU:4-4 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 4, :05 PM on FOX - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA) MINNESOTA [4.7] [6.3] [3.9] [6.0] SEATTLE [4.3] [6.5] [3.7] [6.0] The NFL is a cruel league. One week after a putrid performance at home against Tampa Bay, Minnesota plays at one of the toughest venues in the NFL with questions aplenty. Is Christian Ponder really making progress and where has the run defense disappeared to the last three weeks? Seattle will provide a salty test. The Vikings are 2-12 ATS as road dogs vs. NFC foe off a SU loss and non-cover. Is the Seattle defense starting to crack slightly? After permitting 400+ yards in two of their last three outings, it is a legitimate concern. Minnesota does not present the same passing offensive threat and the Seahawks are 8-0 ATS as favorites off back-to-back losses. MINNESOTA IS ATS(L10G) as Dog Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.2 yards per play(cs) SEATTLE IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) AT CENTURYLINK FIELD SEATTLE IS UNDER(L25G) Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per carry(l50g) (433) TAMPA BAY [SU:3-4 ATS:5-2] AT (434) OAKLAND ( ) [SU:3-4 ATS:3-4] NOVEMBER 4, :05 PM on FOX - O.CO COLISEUM (OAKLAND, CA) NFL MATCHUPS TAMPA BAY [4.1] [7.8] [3.5] [8.1] OAKLAND [3.7] [6.9] [3.9] [6.8] Only in the NFL can a team have a minus 48-point differential and be a game out of first place in their division. Yet here are the Oakland Raiders after consecutive wins, with Carson Palmer being more comfortable with his receivers and Darren McFadden showing more patience in the zoneblocking scheme. Oakland is ATS when favored by three points or less at home. Tampa Bay will be without its top two corners due to league suspensions for a banned substance. This could place the Bucs in peril unless the Tampa Bay defensive line takes control by shutting down the run and they hurry Palmer. The Buccaneers are ATS in non-conference action since OAKLAND IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) VS Opp With 2000 or more travel miles OAKLAND IS 6-19 ATS(L25G) as Fav All Games TAMPA BAY IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(CS) (435) PITTSBURGH [SU:4-3 ATS:3-4] AT (436) NY GIANTS ( ) [SU:6-2 ATS:4-3-1] NOVEMBER 4, :25 PM on CBS - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ) PITTSBURGH [3.7] [7.1] [4.1] [5.7] NY GIANTS [4.4] [7.6] [4.6] [7.8] The Steelers are above.500 for the first time in 2012 and face their most severe test to this point of the season in New Jersey. Ben Roethlisberger has the hang of the new offense designed for him to get rid the ball more swiftly, to move the chains and avoid hits. The running game is rounding into form with 235-pound Jonathan Dwyer toting the rock effectively. Pittsburgh is unsavory 1-8 ATS off a home winner. The Giants have never been big on style points and they are 26th against the pass. Eli Manning is masking this development with late game heroics; however, this cannot go on all season. The G-Men are 23-9 ATS off a division road win. NY GIANTS IS ATS(L25G) at Home as Fav All Games PITTSBURGH IS 17-8 UNDER(L25G) on Road AS underdog of 7 or less points PITTSBURGH IS ATS(L25G) Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(cs) 13 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

15 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 NFL MATCHUPS Football Weekly (437) DALLAS [SU:3-4 ATS:3-4] AT (438) ATLANTA ( ) [SU:7-0 ATS:5-2] NOVEMBER 4, :30 PM on NBC - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA) DALLAS [3.6] [7.1] [4.0] [6.7] ATLANTA [3.8] [7.2] [5.1] [6.7] NFL MATCHUPS Dallas is adopting an old adage We have met the enemy, it is us. Though the Cowboys were within a fingernail of beating the Giants, when you commit six turnovers, you not deserve to win. At 3-4, traveling to the last undefeated team in the league is a tall order; however, Jerry s kids are 8-1 ATS of late against the NFC South. Give the Atlanta front office their due; they have transitioned away from a power running team into a dynamic passing club, stuffed with options to match Matt Ryan s abilities. Michael Turner is effective, but lacks the previous burst. Showcase game for the Falcons who are a bizarre 0-10 ATS at home off consecutive wins vs. under.500 opponent. ATLANTA IS ATS(L50G) as Fav All Games DALLAS IS ATS(L25G) All Games DALLAS IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS) (439) PHILADELPHIA [SU:3-4 ATS:1-5-1] AT (440) NEW ORLEANS (-3 52) [SU:2-5 ATS:3-4] NOVEMBER 5, :40 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA) PHILADELPHIA [4.0] [6.4] [4.0] [6.3] NEW ORLEANS [3.7] [7.0] [5.0] [8.7] There is a very good chance ESPN might go to all day coverage for this Monday night matchup with all the storylines surrounding these to floundering clubs. Andy Reid is not on the hot seat, he s in the middle of the frying pan. Michael Vick tumultuous play has his current and future in doubt in Philadelphia and the Eagles defense has forced two turnovers in the last five games. The Saints are in even worse shape, though their coach will be back next year. New Orleans is less than 25 yards away from surrendering (insert white flag) 500 YPG. The Saints have no running game at 72.6 YPC and are wholly dependent on Drew Brees to save them. Yikes! NEW ORLEANS IS 9-1 OVER(L10G) Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per attempt(l25g) NEW ORLEANS IS 6-19 ATS(L25G) at Home Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(cs) PHILADELPHIA IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) on Road as Dog Conference games 14 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

16 Football Weekly VI PICKS VI Jim (55%) (37%)* VI Jason (51%) (48%)* VI Paul (47%) (48%)* Power Ratings (49%) Effective Strength (60%) November 1, (305) VIRGINIA TECH at (306) MIAMI FL (+2.5) Miami FL Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Forecaster (54%) Bettors Ratings (49%) Miami FL Miami FL Miami FL Virginia November 2, (309) WASHINGTON at (310) CALIFORNIA (-4.5) Tech Consensus (51%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Virginia Washington California California California Washington California California California Tech November 3, (317) VANDERBILT at (318) KENTUCKY (+7.5) Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky Vanderbilt Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky November 3, (329) GEORGIA TECH at (330) MARYLAND (+7.5) Maryland Georgia Tech Georgia Tech Maryland Maryland Maryland Georgia Tech Maryland November 3, (341) ALABAMA at (342) LSU (+9.5) Alabama Alabama LSU LSU Alabama LSU LSU LSU VI PICKS November 3, (351) NEBRASKA at (352) MICHIGAN ST (+1) Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska Michigan St Michigan St Michigan St Nebraska Nebraska November 3, (365) CONNECTICUT at (366) SOUTH FLORIDA (-8) Connecticut South Florida South Florida Connecticut South Florida South Florida Connecticut South Florida November 3, (373) SYRACUSE at (374) CINCINNATI (-5) Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati November 3, (387) TEXAS A&M at (388) MISSISSIPPI ST (+6.5) Texas A&M Texas A&M Texas A&M Mississippi St Texas A&M Texas A&M Mississippi St Texas A&M November 3, (403) SAN DIEGO ST at (404) BOISE ST (-14) Boise St Boise St Boise St Boise St Boise St San Diego St Boise St Boise St VI Jim says Maryland will be turning to a freshman linebacker to play quarterback this weekend against Georgia Tech after an unusual rash of injuries has struck the top four QB s on the roster at the outset of the season. Oddsmakers have adjusted for this situation heavily as many of the statistical numbers and power ratings indicate that Tech should be favored by 2-points or less. Instead the last mnumber I saw was minus-7.5. On the surface that type of move would make sense, but to me it is a mass overreaction and ignoring other factor. First, the linebacker being used is Shawn Petty, who by the way was an all-state high school quarterback and has been practicing with the offense for a couple of weeks already. Second, Tech is a bad team at this point, having allowed 40 or more points in four of the L5 games. It would be easy to write off the Terps. I see them rallying to the cause in front of the home folks. VI Jason says Saturday s game in East Lansing is a big one in the Big Ten standings, as Nebraska can virtually wrap up a berth in the conference title game with a win against Michigan State. The Cornhuskers have put themselves in favorable position thanks to back-to-back wins over Michigan and Northwestern. This game won t be easy as the Spartans have been awfully tough on defense, holding all but one opponent to 20 points or less on the season while averaging 15.0 PPG allowed. The problem is that the offense can t keep up with Nebraska s. The Cornhuskers are averaging just shy of 500 yards per game and 40 points per game. Even if they are held to just half of that, I m not sure Michigan State can keep up. Cornhuskers QB Taylor Martinez figures to play with his ankle injury and he will be the difference. There is a reason Nebraska is favored, look for them to wrap up the Legends Division here. VI Paul says Mississippi State thought they really had a chance to give Alabama a run, they were sadly mistaken and that carries over into this contest. While oddsmakers are aware teams losing their first game of the season after starting 7-0 or better and are installed as favorites in next contest is a good play against wager, it still works. Texas A&M knows they could have beaten LSU at home and has a great opportunity to keep building momentum before No. 1 Alabama visits College Station next Saturday. Points will not be an issue for either squad with the total score approaching 60. The Aggies play hard all four quarters and cover the number for a spread winner. VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 15

17 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 VEGASINSIDER Football Weekly Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in VegasInsider Weekly. In the chart below, you ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house STRENGTH RATINGS ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors Ratings (Bettors Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total. STRENGTH RATINGS 16 BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 303 E MICHIGAN OVER OHIO U OHIO 305 VIRGINIA TECH OVER MIAMI FL MIA MIDDLE TENN ST W KENTUCKY WASHINGTON CALIFORNIA PENN ST OVER PURDUE PUR 313 AIR FORCE AF 40.6 OVER ARMY AKRON AKR OVER 22.7 AKR 316 KENT ST VANDERBILT OVER OVER 318 KENTUCKY MASSACHUSETTS N ILLINOIS NIU TEMPLE OVER LOUISVILLE BOSTON COLLEGE BC WAKE FOREST HOUSTON UNDER UNDER 326 EAST CAROLINA ECU IOWA OVER IOWA 328 INDIANA IND GEORGIA TECH OVER OVER 330 MARYLAND MAR 24.0 MAR CLEMSON OVER 40.6 OVER DUKE TULSA OVER ARKANSAS NEW MEXICO ST NMST AUBURN AUB 337 STANFORD STA COLORADO OVER 15.8 COL TEXAS ST UNIV TST UTAH ST ALABAMA ALA LSU LSU 23.4 OVER LSU 343 COLORADO ST WYOMING VIRGINIA OVER NC STATE NCST 36.9 NCST ARIZONA ST OVER OREGON ST MISSOURI OVER FLORIDA FLO 39.2 FLO THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

18 Football Weekly BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 351 NEBRASKA OVER OVER 352 MICHIGAN ST TCU TCU 38.7 TCU 24.7 UNDER 354 WEST VIRGINIA OVER ILLINOIS OVER OVER 356 OHIO ST OHST PITTSBURGH OVER OVER 358 NOTRE DAME ND 39.1 ND ND 359 TX-SAN ANTONIO TXSA 18.1 UNDER 360 LOUISIANA TECH OVER SAN JOSE ST SJST 42.3 SJST IDAHO OVER 20.6 IDA 363 SMU OVER UCF CONNECTICUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA W MICHIGAN C MICHIGAN MIAMI OHIO UNDER 370 BUFFALO OLE MISS OVER 28.8 OVER GEORGIA GEO 373 SYRACUSE OVER OVER 374 CINCINNATI CIN 375 WASHINGTON ST OVER OVER 376 UTAH UAB UAB SOUTHERN MISS SM 28.2 UNDER SM 379 MEMPHIS MEM MARSHALL UNDER MICHIGAN OVER OVER 382 MINNESOTA MIN OKLAHOMA ST OVER OKST 384 KANSAS ST KST UNDER 385 TEXAS OVER 28.4 TEX 386 TEXAS TECH TT 28.5 UNDER 387 TEXAS A&M TA&M MISSISSIPPI ST OVER KANSAS UNDER 28.5 OVER BAYLOR BAY 391 OKLAHOMA OVER UNDER 392 IOWA ST OREGON ORE 32.4 UNDER 33.2 UNDER 394 USC OVER 31.8 USC 32.2 USC 395 RICE RICE 34.3 RICE 32.9 RICE 396 TULANE UNDER 22.9 UNDER 24.0 UNDER 397 HAWAII OVER 16.0 HAW 398 FRESNO ST FRST ARIZONA UCLA NEW MEXICO NM UNLV SAN DIEGO ST OVER BOISE ST FLA ATLANTIC NAVY FLA INTERNATIONAL S ALABAMA TROY TROY TENNESSEE OVER ARKANSAS ST UNDER NORTH TEXAS LA LAFAYETTE OVER 28.1 OVER LA MONROE LAM VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION STRENGTH RATINGS 17

19 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly HEAD-TO-HEAD 18 COLLEGE FOOTBALL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN For every issue of the Vegas Insider Weekly this season, we ll take a look at each upcoming college football matchup from a head-tohead series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week s breakdowns, in rotation number order. NOVEMBER 1, 2012 (303) E MICHIGAN at (304) OHIO U This will be just the second time since the 2007 season that Eastern Michigan and Ohio U will be facing one another. In the only recent meeting, in 2010, the visiting Bobcats scored a win in Ypsilanti. Overall, Ohio U is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since (305) VIRGINIA TECH at (306) MIAMI FL Virginia Tech has beaten Miami FL in seven of the L9 series meetings, both SU & ATS, and also owns a record of 9-2 ATS in 11 meetings since 01. It s typically been better to be the road team in this ACC set as well, 6-2 ATS in the L8. (307) MIDDLE TENN ST at (308) W KENTUCKY Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee State on the road last season, 36-33, ending a 3-game losing streak at the hands of the Blue Raiders. However, MTSU won both of the prior meetings outright at WKU, splitting them ATS. NOVEMBER 2, 2012 (309) WASHINGTON at (310) CALIFORNIA Washington will be looking for its fourth straight head-to-head win both SU & ATS over California when the teams meet on Friday night in Berkeley. The last time that the Bears won in this series was in 08, at home, Underdogs are on a 5-1 ATS run in the series. NOVEMBER 3, 2012 (311) PENN ST at (312) PURDUE Purdue hasn t beaten Penn State in football since the 2004 season but does own a ATS mark in the L3 series games. Last year s game was a decision in Happy Valley, a game that pushed on the total. Prior to that, seven straight games in this Big Ten set went UNDER the total. (313) AIR FORCE at (314) ARMY The 2005 season was the last time that Army beat Air Force, as the Falcons are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the series since. The lone cover for the Knights was a year ago however, as Air Force failed to cover a hefty 16.5-point number in a home win. Road teams are on a run of 10-2 in this service academy rivalry since (315) AKRON at (316) KENT ST Kent State held Akron to 223 yards in a 35-3 victory on the road last November. The game was rare for this series not only in the lopsided scoring margin, but also in the fact that it ended a stretch of ATS for underdogs. Akron is ATS in its L6 trips to Kent. (317) VANDERBILT at (318) KENTUCKY Vanderbilt scored a rare easy SEC win last November at home versus Kentucky, winning 38-8 as a 13-point favorite. Prior to that, Kentucky had gone 6-1 SU & ATS in this rivalry. Favorites are on a 5-1 ATS run between these teams. (319) MASSACHUSETTS at (320) N ILLINOIS Massachusetts heads to DeKalb this weekend still in search of a first victory in this inaugural FBS season. The Minutemen have lost two MAC road games already, but split them ATS. (321) TEMPLE at (322) LOUISVILLE Temple and Louisville squared off in two vastly different games in the 03 & 06 seasons. In the earlier affair, the Owls were game, covering a 13-point line in a loss at Louisville. Three years later, the Cardinals walloped Temple 62-0 on the road as part of their 12-1 Orange Bowl season. (323) BOSTON COLLEGE at (324) WAKE FOREST Every one of the nine contests that Boston College and Wake Forest have played against one another as ACC rivals have been decided by 10 points or less. The latest encounter was a Wake win in Boston last October. That game snapped a 4-game SU & ATS losing streak in the series for the Demon Deacons. (325) HOUSTON at (326) EAST CAROLINA Houston blasted East Carolina 56-3 a year ago in its 13-1 campaign, outgaining the Pirates while easily covering a 12-point line at home. That resulted snapped a string of four straight ATS wins by the underdogs in this C-USA series, as well as four straight OVER s on the total. (327) IOWA at (328) INDIANA Since Indiana scored rare back-to-back wins over Iowa in 2006 & 2007, the Hawkeyes have responded with four straight wins in head-tohead play. The ATS ledger is split in that span 2/2, with Indiana on a 2-game run in that regard. This has been a fairly high scoring Big Ten set as well, with OVER the total on a 6-1 run since 05. (329) GEORGIA TECH at (330) MARYLAND Although Georgia Tech has won nearly twice as many games as Maryland (25 to 13) over the L3 seasons, the Terps have proven quite competitive in the head-to-head series during that span. Maryland is 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS, scoring a upset at home in Underdogs have covered five straight games in this ACC rivalry. THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

20 Football Weekly (331) CLEMSON at (332) DUKE Cross-division ACC foes Clemson and Duke haven t faced one another since the 2008 season and the Tigers will be looking for a fourth straight head-to-head victory on Saturday. Clemson outscored Duke by 30.0 PPG in that stretch, winning ATS on all three occasions. (333) TULSA at (334) ARKANSAS The Arkansas-Tulsa series has a bit of regional rivalry to it, although the Razorbacks are looking for an 18th straight win in the set. The most recent game in 08 may have been Tulsa s best shot ever at a win, as they were actually favored by 7-points in Fayetteville but lost (335) NEW MEXICO ST at (336) AUBURN You might actually be surprised to find out that there was actually a recent meeting between New Mexico State and Auburn, and that was in 07. In hindsight, that September game may have been one of oddsmakers worst misses of the season, as an eventual 9-4 Tigers team beat a 4-9 Aggies team while favored by just 16.5-points at home. (337) STANFORD at (338) COLORADO Many teams have feasted upon Colorado in their early time so far in the Pac 12, and Stanford was no different, whipping the Buffaloes 48-7 at home last October. In that game, the Cardinal (-29.5) and QB Andrew Luck netted a season-high 392 yards thru the air. (339) TEXAS ST UNIV at (340) UTAH ST Texas State continues its most difficult stretch of conference games in its first year of WAC play with a trip to Logan, UT to take on the Aggies. It will be the first ever series meeting between the teams. (341) ALABAMA at (342) LSU There s a little game going on in Baton Rouge this weekend which experts are going to have their eye on. After all, it s a rematch of last year s BCS title game and is likely to have a huge impact on who plays in that game this season. Bama & LSU split the two games last season with LSU winning in Tuscaloosa in the regular season 9-6. The Tide are ATS in the L8 of the series, and held LSU to just those 9 points in the two contests last year. (343) COLORADO ST at (344) WYOMING Wyoming has won three straight games against Colorado State, including a 44-0 decision the last time the teams met in Laramie in Favorites have typically been the better side to back in this Mountain West series, going 6-2 ATS since 04. (347) ARIZONA ST at (348) OREGON ST Oregon State is on a 3-game ATS winning streak versus Arizona State, and hasn t lost outright to the Sun Devils at home since 2004, also a current 3-game winning streak. This has been a high scoring Pac 12 series overall, with five of the L6 games going OVER the total. (349) MISSOURI at (350) FLORIDA The inaugural season for Missouri in the SEC has not been easy, and it s going to get a lot tougher yet, with three conference road trips remaining on the 2012 slate. The Tigers haven t faced Florida since the series one and only meeting back in the 1955 Sugar Bowl, a decision in favor of Missouri. (351) NEBRASKA at (352) MICHIGAN ST Nebraska has met Michigan State twice in the L10 seasons, holding the Spartans to a total of 6 points while garnering two easy wins and two easy UNDER s. Last year s game was 24-3 in Lincoln and marked Michigan State s only regular season Big Ten loss as they were held to just 187 yards of offense. (353) TCU at (354) WEST VIRGINIA The rigors of the Big 12 schedule finally took their toll on West Virginia as the Mountaineers lost back-to-back games heading into their bye this past weekend. They are now 0-2 ATS in conference play at home as they host TCU. The only prior meeting between these teams was in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl, a WVU win. (355) ILLINOIS at (356) OHIO ST Ohio State has won four straight games over Illinois while going 3-1 ATS since the Illini pulled a huge upset in Columbus in 2007 as 15-point dogs. Illinois has scored just 40 points in those L4 games, and all of the most recent three contests went UNDER the total. (357) PITTSBURGH at (358) NOTRE DAME Notre Dame has beaten Pittsburgh in three of the L4 games but by no means has any game been easy. In fact, the total point margin in those contests was 17 points and the most decisive was a decision won by the Irish the last time the teams played in South Bend in Underdogs are on a run of ATS in the series. (359) TX-SAN ANTONIO at (360) LOUISIANA TECH Louisiana Tech looks to continue its march towards the WAC championship by hosting newcomer Texas-San Antonio on Saturday. It will be the first ever series meeting between the schools although UTSA HC Larry Coker recorded two easy wins by a count of 96-9 over the Bulldogs while with Miami. HEAD-TO-HEAD (345) VIRGINIA at (346) NC STATE NC State won in Charlottesville last October after the teams had gone four seasons without playing one another. That result was a rare road win in this ACC set, as home teams had gone 6-0 SU & ATS since (361) SAN JOSE ST at (362) IDAHO Idaho has won three straight games versus San Jose State and is 3-1 ATS in the L4 meetings. However, the series has been very tight, with none of those four games being decided by more than 6 points. Not surprisingly, underdogs are on a 4-game ATS winning streak in the set. VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 19

21 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly HEAD-TO-HEAD (363) SMU at (364) UCF SMU got a bit of payback on UCF from the Conference USA title game defeat in 2010 by winning last year at home as a 3.5-point favorite. It was the fourth straight time since these teams became conference rivals that the chalk was the winning side against the spread. (365) CONNECTICUT at (366) SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut has beaten South Florida in three straight head-to-head games but last year s decision in Storrs was the most decisive of the trio. In fact, of the L5 meetings between these Big East rivals, all were decided by 7-points or less. UNDER the total is on a 4-1 run in the series. (367) W MICHIGAN at (368) C MICHIGAN Western Michigan ended five years of frustration versus rival Central Michigan with a win in Kalamazoo last September. Prior to that, the Chippewas had won every year since 2006 while going ATS in the series. Favored teams are on a ATS run in this MAC set. (369) MIAMI OHIO at (370) BUFFALO Miami Ohio is looking for a third straight victory over Buffalo when the teams meet on Saturday. The more prominent trend in this series revolves around the total however, as OVER the total is on a 6-1 run since 05. (371) OLE MISS at (372) GEORGIA Ole Miss won in Athens in 96 but has lost nine straight head-to-head games against Georgia since. The total has seen a pattern as well, with five of the L6 games going UNDER. (373) SYRACUSE at (374) CINCINNATI Syracuse will be looking to extend a run of 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS by road teams in its series with Cincinnati when the teams meet on Saturday. One of those wins was an impressive 31-7 upset by the Orange in Cincy in 2010 as 5.5-point dogs. UNDER the total has also converted in eight of the L9 games of this Big East set. span and dogs have covered four straight. UNDER the total is also on a 5-game winning streak. (381) MICHIGAN at (382) MINNESOTA Since Minnesota made things real interesting with Michigan in the middle of the last decade, the Wolverines have certainly swung the series tide back in their favor by winning four straight games in easy fashion. Michigan is 4-0 SU & ATS versus the Gophers since 06 with an average victory margin of 29.8 PPG. Last year s result was a 58-0 laugher in Ann Arbor as Michigan won the yardage battle (383) OKLAHOMA ST at (384) KANSAS ST Oklahoma State and Kansas State put up 97 points in their clash a year ago and the Cowboys won by 7 at home. Many people expect similar production this week, and that would mean a sixth OVER the total in seven tires of this series. Underdogs have fared well to going 4-1 ATS in the L5. (385) TEXAS at (386) TEXAS TECH Texas win over Texas Tech last November in Austin marked the eighth win in nine tries for the Longhorns in this series. Some of the games have been close however, as illustrated by Tech s 4-5 ATS mark in that span. (387) TEXAS A&M at (388) MISSISSIPPI ST Texas A&M and Mississippi State will meet for the first time as SEC West Division rivals and for the first time since the Bulldogs epic OT win in the 2000 Independence Bowl game. State will be looking for its sixth straight ATS win at home in SEC play. (389) KANSAS at (390) BAYLOR Strangely, two of the last four games between Kansas and Baylor were decided by a single point, while the other two games were each 48-point wins by the hosts. Baylor owns a 3-1 SU edge in that span, but the Jayhawks have cashed three of the four betting tickets. Last year s game was a Bears (-20) win in Lawrence. 20 (375) WASHINGTON ST at (376) UTAH Utah edged Washington State in overtime last year, It was the first ever conference meeting between the schools and the third meeting all-time. Hosts are 0-3 in that span. This year s game is in Salt Lake where the Cougars won in (377) UAB at (378) SOUTHERN MISS UAB has been a thorn in Southern Miss side over the L3 years, pulling outright upsets each time out. I guess you could call it payback for the thumping USM put on the Blazers back in 08. Overall, underdogs are on a strong run of 9-3 ATS in the L12 meetings of this series. (379) MEMPHIS at (380) MARSHALL Marshall has beaten Memphis four straight times, but considering the Tigers won a total of 11 games in that span, the total point margin of 29 points could be a concern for Herd backers. Memphis is actually 3-1 ATS in that (391) OKLAHOMA at (392) IOWA ST To say that Oklahoma s defense has dominated Iowa State over the last decade would be considered a vast understatement. The Cyclones have scored a total of 32 points in six losses (2-4 ATS) to the Sooners. Four straight games have gone UNDER the total as a result. The teams haven t played in Ames since 07. (393) OREGON at (394) USC USC s huge upset win in Eugene last November stands as the backdrop for this week s critical Pac 12 tilt at the Coliseum. Prior to that game last year, the Ducks had recorded two straight blowout victories over the Trojans. Dating back to 02, favorites are on a 6-2 ATS run in this series. (395) RICE at (396) TULANE Rice and Tulane have split six head-to-head meetings since 2006 while the Green Wave THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

22 Football Weekly own a 4-2 ATS edge in the series. Last year s game was unusually low scoring by series standards, a 19-7 decision won by host Rice (-14). In that game, the Owls won despite gaining just 237 yards of offense and being outgained by 53 yards. (397) HAWAII at (398) FRESNO ST For whatever the reason, home field advantage has meant very little in the headto-head series between Fresno State and Hawaii in recent years. In fact, it s been better to be the road team, 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS since 05. Three of those games were outright upsets as well, including Fresno s win on the Island last November. (399) ARIZONA at (400) UCLA The Arizona-UCLA series has been one-sided of late, with the Wildcats being on the preferred side. They are 5-0 SU & ATS versus the Bruins since 2006 with all five games being decided by at least a TD margin. Going back one year further, favorites are on a ATS surge in this Pac 12 set. (401) NEW MEXICO at (402) UNLV The New Mexico-UNLV series has been a tough one to call lately, and why shouldn t it be, as during most of that stretch, the teams were battling to avoid the basement of the Mountain West Conference. The L6 games of the series have been split evenly 3/3, both SU & ATS. Home teams and favorites both own a slight 4-2 ATS edge in that span. (403) SAN DIEGO ST at (404) BOISE ST Boise State rebounded from its only loss of the 2011 season by beating San Diego State on the road It was the Aztecs who deservedly got the ATS victory however, playing as 18.5-point dogs, while nearly outgaining the Broncos (405) FLA ATLANTIC at (406) NAVY Navy and Florida Atlantic meet for the first time ever this weekend. The Middies are 1-2 ATS at home this season and have two home games left. They are in search of their first winning ATS mark as hosts since 03. (407) FLA INTERNATIONAL at (408) S ALABAMA It s been a disappointing season for FIU in 2012 coming off back-to-back bowl seasons. For South Alabama, it s been an encouraging first season in FBS football. The two teams meet for the first time ever, with the Jaguars looking to end a 4-game ATS losing streak at home. (409) TROY at (410) TENNESSEE Tennessee takes a break from what has been a brutal trek through the SEC schedule with a non-conference matchup versus Troy. It will be the first time the schools have squared off on the gridiron. The Vols are looking to improve their 0-4 ATS mark at home in (411) ARKANSAS ST at (412) NORTH TEXAS Arkansas State carries a seven game winning streak (4-3 ATS) in head-to-head play versus North Texas into the teams showdown in Denton on Saturday. Last year s game was a decision in which the Mean Green allowed a Sun Belt-high 540 yards to ASU (-17.5). (413) LA LAFAYETTE at (414) LA MONROE The Monroe-Lafayette rivalry is as fierce as any in the Sun Belt Conference, as it establishes in-state bragging rights for the winning team. Like most solid rivalries, underdogs and road teams have fared well. Dogs are on a 10-2 ATS run since 2000 in the series and visitors are just a game worse at 9-3 ATS in that span. HEAD-TO-HEAD 21 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

23 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (303) E MICHIGAN [SU:1-7 ATS:3-5] AT (304) OHIO U ( ) [SU:7-1 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 1, :00 PM on ESPNU - PEDEN STADIUM (ATHENS, OH) Offensive Offensive Statistics Statistics E MICHIGAN [4.5] [6.9] [6.3] [7.1] OHIO U [4.4] [7.8] [4.0] [6.1] OHIO IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(cs) (305) VIRGINIA TECH ( ) [SU:4-4 ATS:2-6] AT (306) MIAMI FL [SU:4-4 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 1, :30 PM on ESPN - SUN LIFE STADIUM (MIAMI, FL) VIRGINIA TECH [4.3] [7.6] [4.1] [6.7] MIAMI FL [4.2] [7.1] [5.2] [8.5] MATCHUPS The difference between the ACC Coastal Division and the Atlantic might like choosing between Rosie O Donnell and Sofia Vergara, but somebody has to win the Coastal and one of these teams takes a step forward. Virginia Tech has struggled all year on offense, however, faces Miami who ranks 120th in total defense. The Hokies are 12-5 and 13-4 ATS against the Hurricanes since Miami has lost three in a row, yet covered the last two. The Canes running game will have to produce more to win this contest, having rushed for 85 or fewer yards in three of their last four outings. The U is only 1-10 ATS with rest facing a conference foe. VIRGINIA TECH IS 16-9 UNDER(L25G) Conference games MIAMI FL IS UNDER(L10G) In November VIRGINIA TECH IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) In November (307) MIDDLE TENN ST [SU:5-3 ATS:5-3] AT (308) W KENTUCKY (-9 54) [SU:6-2 ATS:7-1] NOVEMBER 1, :15 PM on ESPNU - LT SMITH STADIUM (BOWLING GREEN, KY) MIDDLE TENN ST [4.5] [8.3] [4.5] [8.2] W KENTUCKY [4.5] [8.2] [3.3] [6.7] MIDDLE TENN ST IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(cs) (309) WASHINGTON [SU:4-4 ATS:4-4] AT (310) CALIFORNIA ( ) [SU:3-6 ATS:3-6] NOVEMBER 2, :00 PM on ESPN2 - CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUM (BERKELEY, CA) WASHINGTON [3.7] [5.7] [4.8] [7.3] CALIFORNIA [4.6] [7.4] [4.2] [6.4] In this Pac-12 matchup, the only aspect of interest other than the point spread is can either team become bowl eligible. A great deal of this telecast will feature the future employment of Jeff Tedford at Cal. The Bears have dropped five of six and still have both Oregon schools on the schedule. California is 2-6 ATS versus Washington since The Huskies at least feel better about themselves after knocking off their second ranked team at home in Oregon State last Saturday. Washington has to raise their level of play away from home, sporting a 0-3 SU and ATS record, being outscored by 34.6 PPG. The Huskies are 4-13 ATS after a conference win by three points or less. WASHINGTON IS ATS(L25G) on Road Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per point(l25g) CALIFORNIA IS 7-1 UNDER(L10G) at Home All Games WASHINGTON IS 8-2 UNDER(L10G) AS underdog of 7 or less points 22 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

24 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (311) PENN ST ( ) [SU:5-3 ATS:6-2] AT (312) PURDUE [SU:3-5 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPNU - ROSS-ADE STADIUM (WEST LAFAYETTE, IN) PENN ST [3.4] [6.8] [3.6] [6.0] PURDUE [4.4] [6.0] [4.9] [6.9] PURDUE IS 7-2 OVER(L10G) All Games (313) AIR FORCE ( ) [SU:5-3 ATS:3-5] AT (314) ARMY [SU:1-7 ATS:2-6] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on CBSS - MICHIE STADIUM (WEST POINT, NY) AIR FORCE [5.8] [11.3] [5.2] [7.3] ARMY [5.8] [6.5] [5.7] [9.7] AIR FORCE IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 15.3 yards per point(l25g) (315) AKRON [SU:1-8 ATS:4-5] AT (316) KENT ST (-21 58) [SU:7-1 ATS:7-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN3 - DIX STADIUM (KENT, OH) AKRON [3.9] [6.4] [5.1] [7.6] KENT ST [5.0] [6.6] [4.2] [7.1] KENT ST IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) All Games (317) VANDERBILT ( ) [SU:4-4 ATS:4-4] AT (318) KENTUCKY [SU:1-8 ATS:2-7] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPNU - COMMONWEALTH STADIUM (LEXINGTON, KY) MATCHUPS VANDERBILT [4.1] [8.2] [4.5] [5.6] KENTUCKY [3.8] [5.6] [4.2] [7.7] KENTUCKY IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) as Dog Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards per attempt(cs) (319) MASSACHUSETTS [SU:0-8 ATS:2-6] AT (320) N ILLINOIS ( ) [SU:8-1 ATS:7-1-1] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM - HUSKIE STADIUM (DEKALB, IL) MASSACHUSETTS [3.0] [4.8] [5.2] [8.5] N ILLINOIS [5.5] [8.1] [3.6] [6.1] VegasInsider Weekly tries to look into at least one key conference matchup weekly, and frankly, the MAC had nothing to offer this week, thus we decided to test the limits of the football bettor willingness to take or give the points. Northern Illinois is in serious shape to defend its MAC title, with eight straight wins and at last look was 35-point chalk and has covered five in a row. Massachusetts moved up to FBS football and has yet to taste victory (2-6 ATS) and is losing by 30.5 PPG this season. There is little doubt about the outcome, nevertheless, are the Huskies focused enough at home to cover the five touchdowns with Toledo on deck? N ILLINOIS IS ATS(L10G) All Games N ILLINOIS IS 16-9 ATS(L25G) at Home Conference games N ILLINOIS IS 20-9 OVER(L50G) Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 6.0 yards per play(cs) 23 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

25 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (321) TEMPLE [SU:3-4 ATS:3-4] AT (322) LOUISVILLE ( ) [SU:8-0 ATS:3-4-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN3 - PAPA JOHNS CARDINAL STADIUM (LOUISVILLE, KY) TEMPLE [3.8] [6.4] [4.0] [8.4] LOUISVILLE (12) [4.0] [9.0] [4.0] [6.4] TEMPLE IS 9-1 OVER(L10G) Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards per attempt(cs) (323) BOSTON COLLEGE [SU:2-6 ATS:2-6] AT (324) WAKE FOREST ( ) [SU:4-4 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPN3 - GROVES STADIUM (WINSTON-SALEM, NC) BOSTON COLLEGE [2.9] [7.3] [5.0] [7.0] WAKE FOREST [3.2] [6.3] [3.9] [7.7] WAKE FOREST IS 7-2 UNDER(L10G) Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(cs) MATCHUPS (325) HOUSTON ( ) [SU:4-4 ATS:3-5] AT (326) EAST CAROLINA [SU:5-4 ATS:5-4] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - DOWDY-FICKLEN STADIUM (GREENVILLE, NC) HOUSTON [5.0] [6.7] [4.2] [7.2] EAST CAROLINA [3.6] [7.2] [4.3] [8.0] HOUSTON IS 9-1 ATS(L10G) Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 31.5 PPG(L25G) (327) IOWA [SU:4-4 ATS:2-5-1] AT (328) INDIANA (-2 56) [SU:3-5 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN) IOWA [4.0] [5.7] [4.1] [6.8] INDIANA [4.4] [7.0] [4.7] [6.9] INDIANA IS 9-1 OVER(L10G) VS BIG10 (329) GEORGIA TECH ( ) [SU:3-5 ATS:4-4] AT (330) MARYLAND [SU:4-4 ATS:4-3-1] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPN3 - BYRD STADIUM (COLLEGE PARK, MD) GEORGIA TECH [5.8] [9.8] [4.2] [7.4] MARYLAND [2.3] [7.6] [2.3] [6.4] MARYLAND IS ATS(L25G) at Home All Games 24 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

26 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (331) CLEMSON (-13 65) [SU:7-1 ATS:6-2] AT (332) DUKE [SU:6-3 ATS:6-3] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN2 - WALLACE WADE STADIUM (DURHAM, NC) CLEMSON (10) [4.1] [8.7] [4.8] [7.5] DUKE [3.6] [6.8] [4.5] [7.6] Clemson knows it s a long shot, but still is holding on to hope they can take the ACC Atlantic Division by winning out and Florida State being upset a second time. This is the Tigers final road game and compared to last year, Clemson appears to getting better, instead of having peaked. Clemson is only 1-5 ATS at Durham recently. Duke was flushed by Florida State 48-7, yet could still take solace in the fact they are still in tied for first place in the Coastal. The road to a divisional crown is not any easier this week, with Clemson just as explosive, thus Duke has force turnovers. The Dukies are just 7-16 ATS in November home games. DUKE IS 7-18 ATS(L25G) VS ranked team CLEMSON IS 16-9 ATS(L25G) VS ACC CLEMSON IS 7-3 UNDER(L10G) on Road All Games (333) TULSA [SU:7-1 ATS:4-4] AT (334) ARKANSAS ( ) [SU:3-5 ATS:2-6] NOVEMBER 3, :21 PM on ESPN3 - RAZORBACK STADIUM (FAYETTEVILLE, AR) TULSA [5.3] [6.6] [3.0] [7.2] ARKANSAS [3.9] [8.2] [3.4] [8.2] ARKANSAS IS ATS(L50G) In November (335) NEW MEXICO ST [SU:1-7 ATS:4-4] AT (336) AUBURN (-23 51) [SU:1-7 ATS:2-6] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPN3 - JORDAN-HARE STADIUM (AUBURN, AL) MATCHUPS NEW MEXICO ST [3.1] [7.3] [5.0] [7.9] AUBURN [3.4] [7.0] [5.1] [7.3] NEW MEXICO ST IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) on Road Against unopportunistic offenses averaging more than yards per point(cs) (337) STANFORD (-28 51) [SU:6-2 ATS:4-4] AT (338) COLORADO [SU:1-7 ATS:1-7] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on FX - FOLSOM FIELD (BOULDER, CO) STANFORD (15) [4.3] [7.0] [2.2] [6.3] COLORADO [3.2] [5.8] [5.3] [9.2] COLORADO IS ATS(L25G) as Dog Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or more(l25g) (339) TEXAS ST [SU:3-4 ATS:5-2] AT (340) UTAH ST ( ) [SU:7-2 ATS:8-0-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - ROMNEY STADIUM (LOGAN, UT) TEXAS ST [4.8] [6.9] [5.5] [7.1] UTAH ST [5.0] [8.1] [2.6] [6.2] UTAH ST IS ATS(L25G) All Games 25 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

27 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (341) ALABAMA ( ) [SU:8-0 ATS:5-3] AT (342) LSU [SU:7-1 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on CBS - TIGER STADIUM (BATON ROUGE, LA) ALABAMA (1) [5.2] [9.7] [1.9] [5.2] LSU (5) [4.9] [7.1] [2.8] [4.7] So much for being tested as Alabama mauled previously undefeated Mississippi State 38-7, setting up this showdown. The Crimson Tide and LSU have split their previous six battles and both universities are 31-4 in their last 35 contests. The Tigers have not been this large of a home underdog since 2001 against then No. 2 Florida and Nick Saban was the LSU coach. LSU has a chance for the upset by hitting big plays in the passing game for points and resorting to trick plays from the Mad Hatter which work positively. The home team is ATS of late and if the Tigers fail to fire on offense, this could look like last season s insipid BCS championship tilt. LSU IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) at Home Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(l25g) ALABAMA IS 9-1 ATS(L10G) Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(l50g) LSU IS ATS(L25G) at Home Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per play(cs) MATCHUPS (343) COLORADO ST [SU:2-6 ATS:2-6] AT (344) WYOMING (-9 52) [SU:1-7 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM - WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM (LARAMIE, WY) COLORADO ST [3.3] [6.9] [4.8] [6.5] WYOMING [3.5] [6.9] [4.8] [7.0] COLORADO ST IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) AS underdog of more than 7 points (345) VIRGINIA [SU:2-6 ATS:0-8] AT (346) NC STATE ( ) [SU:5-3 ATS:2-5-1] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPN3 - CARTER-FINLEY STADIUM (RALEIGH, NC) VIRGINIA [3.7] [7.0] [4.1] [6.7] NC STATE [3.3] [7.4] [3.7] [8.4] VIRGINIA IS 0-10 ATS(L10G) All Games (347) ARIZONA ST [SU:5-3 ATS:5-2-1] AT (348) OREGON ST ( ) [SU:6-1 ATS:5-2] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM - RESER STADIUM (CORVALLIS, OR) ARIZONA ST [4.2] [8.8] [4.0] [5.2] OREGON ST (13) [3.3] [8.0] [2.9] [6.5] Both of these Pac-12 squads may have lost, nonetheless, they can still reach preseason goals by winning out. The loss of DT Will Sutton has dramatically impacted Arizona State s defensive front, which has been gouged for 618 rushing yards the past two weeks. Reports have Sutton possibly ready this week and with how QB Taylor Kelly is playing, the Sun Devils will have chance to improve on ATS road underdog record since Oregon State not only lost at Washington, but has a debate with who should be quarterback. Sean Mannion threw four picks in his return from injury, while backup Cody Vaz almost led the come from behind win. The home team is ATS in this series. OREGON ST IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) Against solid passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards per attempt(cs) OREGON ST IS 7-2 UNDER(L10G) As favorite ARIZONA ST IS ATS(L25G) on Road as Dog Conference games 26 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

28 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (349) MISSOURI [SU:4-4 ATS:2-5-1] AT (350) FLORIDA ( ) [SU:7-1 ATS:6-2] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - BEN HILL GRIFFIN STADIUM (GAINESVILLE, FL) MISSOURI [3.5] [5.8] [3.6] [6.7] FLORIDA (8) [4.4] [7.1] [3.1] [5.3] FLORIDA IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) as Fav Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per play(cs) (351) NEBRASKA ( ) [SU:6-2 ATS:4-4] AT (352) MICHIGAN ST [SU:5-4 ATS:3-6] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPN2 - SPARTAN STADIUM (EAST LANSING, MI) NEBRASKA (21) [5.7] [8.4] [4.2] [5.4] MICHIGAN ST [3.6] [6.2] [3.0] [5.5] Nebraska regained control of its Big Ten destiny with a victory over Michigan and faces the other half of the Wolverine State s tough-minded clubs on the road in East Lansing. After surrendering 63 points to Ohio State, coach Bo Pelini verbally challenged his defense and they have responded. With RB Rex Burkhead expected to be ready after missing the past 2 ½ games, the Cornhuskers are 8-0 ATS after forcing three or more turnovers. Michigan State might have saved its season with OT stunner at Wisconsin. The defense locked up the Badgers and Spartans coaches put the game in the hands of QB Andrew Maxwell and he delivered. Sparty is 12-4 ATS vs. opponents averaging 200+ yards rushing. MICHIGAN ST IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) Against big play passing teams averaging more than 8.3 yards per attempt(cs) NEBRASKA IS ATS(L10G) Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.5 yards per attempt(cs) MICHIGAN ST IS UNDER(L10G) All Games MATCHUPS (353) TCU [SU:5-3 ATS:3-5] AT (354) WEST VIRGINIA (-7 68) [SU:5-2 ATS:2-5] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on FOX - MOUNTAINEER FIELD (MORGANTOWN, WV) TCU [4.1] [7.8] [3.2] [7.4] WEST VIRGINIA (23) [4.6] [8.1] [3.3] [10.0] WEST VIRGINIA IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) as Fav All Games (355) ILLINOIS [SU:2-6 ATS:2-6] AT (356) OHIO ST ( ) [SU:9-0 ATS:4-5] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPN - OHIO STADIUM (COLUMBUS, OH) ILLINOIS [3.4] [6.2] [4.0] [8.2] OHIO ST (6) [5.5] [7.5] [3.6] [6.7] ILLINOIS IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or more(l25g) 27 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

29 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (357) PITTSBURGH [SU:4-4 ATS:5-3] AT (358) NOTRE DAME ( ) [SU:8-0 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on NBC - NOTRE DAME STADIUM (SOUTH BEND, IN) PITTSBURGH [3.9] [9.5] [4.1] [6.8] NOTRE DAME (4) [4.9] [7.3] [3.1] [5.8] Notre Dame put to rest any doubts about how good they are with an impressive win over Oklahoma. The Fighting Irish are 8-0 for the first time in a decade and have to avoid the letdown after significant triumph. The rock of this team is the defense and they have only conceded five red zone scores in 22 attempts. Notre Dame is ATS vs. Pittsburgh, however, the home team is ATS recently. The Panthers have to continue with ball security on the road, having only nine turnovers on the year. Pitt will hope to hit a few big-gainers to stun Notre Dame and is 16-6 ATS after the first month of the season since NOTRE DAME IS 9-1 UNDER(L10G) All Games PITTSBURGH IS 8-2 UNDER(L10G) on Road All Games PITTSBURGH IS ATS(L10G) as Dog Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per attempt(cs) MATCHUPS (359) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO [SU:5-3 ATS:3-3] AT (360) LOUISIANA TECH (-32 73) [SU:7-1 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN3 - JOE AILLET STADIUM (RUSTON, LA) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO [4.2] [7.9] [3.2] [7.6] LOUISIANA TECH (22) [5.5] [8.1] [4.0] [8.1] LOUISIANA TECH IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) In November (361) SAN JOSE ST ( ) [SU:6-2 ATS:6-2] AT (362) IDAHO [SU:1-7 ATS:1-7] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - KIBBIE ACTIVITY CENTER (MOSCOW, ID) SAN JOSE ST [3.2] [9.1] [4.0] [7.1] IDAHO [2.9] [6.1] [5.4] [9.0] IDAHO IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per attempt(cs) (363) SMU [SU:4-4 ATS:5-3] AT (364) UCF (-12 51) [SU:6-2 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on CBBS - BRIGHT HOUSE NETWORKS STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL) SMU [3.9] [5.9] [3.7] [6.8] UCF [4.9] [7.8] [3.9] [5.9] The Mustangs remain in the C-USA West race and cannot afford another loss trying to hunt down division leader Tulsa. The improbable loss to Tulane could end up haunting SMU, much like the costly miscues QB Garrett Gilbert makes in the Run-and Shoot offense. The Ponies are 2-10 ATS away off two straight conference wins. The Central Florida offense is churning in conference action, averaging 41.7 PPG and 6.9 yards per play. The Knights will have to be careful not to make mistakes, since SMU has forced 11 turnovers in their last two contests contributing to their 116 points. UCF is 13-2 and 10-5 ATS playing host to conference schools the past four seasons. SMU IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(l25g) UCF IS UNDER(L50G) at Home Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per point(l25g) UCF IS 16-9 ATS(L25G) at Home VS CUSA 28 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

30 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (365) CONNECTICUT [SU:3-5 ATS:1-5-2] AT (366) SOUTH FLORIDA (-8 46) [SU:2-6 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPNU - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL) CONNECTICUT [2.5] [7.4] [3.0] [6.3] SOUTH FLORIDA [4.8] [7.2] [4.0] [7.7] CONNECTICUT IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) AS underdog of more than 7 points (367) W MICHIGAN ( ) [SU:3-6 ATS:3-6] AT (368) C MICHIGAN [SU:3-5 ATS:2-6] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN3 - KELLY/SHORTS STADIUM (MOUNT PLEASANT, MI) W MICHIGAN [4.4] [6.4] [4.1] [7.0] C MICHIGAN [4.5] [7.4] [5.2] [7.4] C MICHIGAN IS 8-17 ATS(L25G) as Dog All Games (369) MIAMI OHIO [SU:4-4 ATS:2-6] AT (370) BUFFALO (-4 57) [SU:1-7 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - UB STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY) MIAMI OHIO [3.2] [7.3] [5.4] [7.8] BUFFALO [4.6] [6.0] [4.3] [8.1] BUFFALO IS ATS(L25G) Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(l50g) (371) OLE MISS [SU:5-3 ATS:7-1] AT (372) GEORGIA (-14 63) [SU:7-1 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on CBS - SANFORD STADIUM (ATHENS, GA) MATCHUPS OLE MISS [4.6] [8.0] [3.9] [7.0] GEORGIA (7) [5.1] [9.2] [3.8] [7.0] Georgia did part of what they had to do to remove the soft label with their dramatic win over Florida to gain control of the SEC East. The Bulldogs have to complete the deal with two more conference wins and this confrontation might not be easy. One could argue Mark Richt s squad has seldom played with fury and Ole Miss has an offense that can move the ball, averaging 35 PPG against teams not named Alabama. Unquestionably, the Rebels defense is not the same as the Gators, but first-year coach Hugh Freeze has this club 7-1 ATS this year. With Georgia 1-7 ATS as home favorite of four or more off a SU underdog winner, this could be interesting. MISSISSIPPI IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) In November GEORGIA IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) as Fav Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) GEORGIA IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) All Games (373) SYRACUSE [SU:4-4 ATS:3-5] AT (374) CINCINNATI (-5 56) [SU:5-2 ATS:3-3-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN3 - NIPPERT STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH) SYRACUSE [3.9] [8.0] [4.1] [7.0] CINCINNATI [5.7] [7.7] [3.7] [6.8] CINCINNATI IS 7-3 UNDER(L10G) VS BIGEAST 29 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

31 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (375) WASHINGTON ST [SU:2-6 ATS:3-5] AT (376) UTAH (-12 49) [SU:3-5 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on PAC12 - RICE-ECCLES STADIUM (SALT LAKE CITY, UT) WASHINGTON ST [1.6] [6.4] [4.3] [7.3] UTAH [3.1] [6.5] [3.4] [7.7] UTAH IS ATS(L25G) Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 15.3 yards per point(l50g) (377) UAB [SU:1-7 ATS:3-5] AT (378) SOUTHERN MISS (-3 63) [SU:0-8 ATS:2-6] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM - ROBERTS STADIUM (HATTIESBURG, MS) UAB [2.9] [8.1] [4.7] [8.6] SOUTHERN MISS [3.9] [5.9] [4.9] [7.9] SOUTHERN MISS IS 17-8 OVER(L25G) Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5 yards per attempt(l25g) MATCHUPS (379) MEMPHIS [SU:1-7 ATS:3-5] AT (380) MARSHALL ( ) [SU:3-5 ATS:3-4-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - JOAN C. EDWARDS STADIUM (HUNTINGTON, WV) Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics MEMPHIS [3.7] [6.0] [4.5] [7.2] MARSHALL [4.2] [7.1] [5.2] [7.0] MARSHALL IS 7-18 ATS(L25G) as double digit favorite (381) MICHIGAN ( ) [SU:5-3 ATS:3-5] AT (382) MINNESOTA [SU:5-3 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on BTN - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN) MICHIGAN [5.2] [7.2] [3.7] [5.9] MINNESOTA [4.0] [8.0] [5.0] [5.1] MICHIGAN IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per attempt(cs) (383) OKLAHOMA ST [SU:5-2 ATS:4-3] AT (384) KANSAS ST (-9 66) [SU:8-0 ATS:6-1-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ABC - BILL SNYDER STADIUM (MANHATTAN, KS) OKLAHOMA ST [5.6] [9.0] [3.5] [6.0] KANSAS ST (3) [5.4] [9.8] [3.2] [6.3] On the surface this does not feel like much of conflict. However, it s November, where anything can happen in college football and if Oklahoma State can upset Kansas State, they control their destiny to repeat as Big 12 champions. The Cowboys have won their last two games by three or more touchdowns against solid competition, yet is 1-7 ATS at Manhattan. It is becoming abundantly clear; Kansas State is not going way, shellacking all supposed troublesome opponents. Collin Klein and the offense have committed one turnover in the last five games, making the case the Wildcats will not beat themselves. Coach Bill Snyder s club is ATS after a double digit triumph. OKLAHOMA ST IS 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on Road Conference games KANSAS ST IS 17-8 ATS(L25G) Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) OKLAHOMA ST IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) As underdog 30 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

32 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (385) TEXAS [SU:6-2 ATS:3-5] AT (386) TEXAS TECH ( ) [SU:6-2 ATS:6-2] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on ESPN2 - JONES AT&T STADIUM (LUBBOCK, TX) TEXAS [5.0] [8.2] [5.1] [8.2] TEXAS TECH (20) [4.6] [8.0] [3.6] [5.6] TEXAS TECH IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) as Fav On non-grass field (387) TEXAS A&M ( ) [SU:6-2 ATS:4-4] AT (388) MISSISSIPPI ST [SU:7-1 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - DAVIS WADE STADIUM (STARKVILLE, MS) TEXAS A&M (16) [5.8] [7.9] [3.6] [6.6] MISSISSIPPI ST (17) [4.7] [7.4] [4.1] [6.1] The Bulldogs were battered and bruised by Bama and Mississippi State will have to quickly put that beatdown behind them if they want to prove they should still be among the SEC elite. Coach Dan Mullen s crew could not compete in the trenches and will take on an explosive offense team in Texas A&M averaging 45.5 PPG. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS after Alabama the last decade. Redshirt freshman QB Johnny Manziel shook off his miscues against LSU and helped his Aggies bunch extinguish Auburn The Aggies might be catching Miss. State at the right time and the two best offenses the Bulldogs have seen, they have permitted over 30 points each time. MISSISSIPPI ST IS 8-2 UNDER(L10G) Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per play(l25g) MISSISSIPPI ST IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) as Dog Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per attempt(cs) TEXAS A&M IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(l25g) (389) KANSAS [SU:1-7 ATS:3-4-1] AT (390) BAYLOR (-17 71) [SU:3-4 ATS:3-4] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM - FLOYD CASEY STADIUM (WACO, TX) MATCHUPS KANSAS [4.1] [5.9] [5.2] [7.7] BAYLOR [4.5] [9.9] [4.5] [8.1] BAYLOR IS 15-6 OVER(L25G) at Home All Games (391) OKLAHOMA (-11 53) [SU:5-2 ATS:4-3] AT (392) IOWA ST [SU:5-3 ATS:4-3-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ABC - JACK TRICE STADIUM (AMES, IA) OKLAHOMA (14) [5.3] [7.6] [4.0] [5.6] IOWA ST [3.9] [6.1] [3.6] [6.7] Oklahoma fans have to face facts; they have lost two games to better teams, period. If the Sooners win their remaining contests, they finish 10-2 and possibly snag a BCS bowl berth if certain teams ahead of them lose. Oklahoma supporters and players have to let it go and refocus on making this the best season possible and take on team that can play physical football in the Irish and Wildcats mode, without the same talent. The Sooners are just ATS as true away conference faves since Iowa State has given Texas Tech and Kansas State all they could handle at Trice Stadium and are 10-6 ATS versus the Sooners in past 16 get-togethers. IOWA ST IS ATS(L25G) Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(l25g) IOWA ST IS 17-8 UNDER(L25G) VS BIG12 OKLAHOMA IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per point(l25g) 31 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

33 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (393) OREGON ( ) [SU:8-0 ATS:4-4] AT (394) USC [SU:6-2 ATS:2-6] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on FOX - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA) OREGON (2) [6.2] [7.4] [3.7] [5.3] USC (18) [5.0] [8.6] [3.5] [6.2] ESPN s on-air personalities were a little too happy USC s loss dulls the shine for their competitors major matchup, nonetheless, a lot is at stake. Oregon is quiet about being dissed in the polls and can make their case starting this week they should be at least No. 2 in the country. The Ducks are winning by 34-points a contest and have arguably their finest defense under Chip Kelly. Oregon is 19-4 ATS after holding a pair of 14+ point leads at halftime in consecutive games. IF USC couldn t keep up with Arizona, how will stay with Oregon s blinding speed? The truth about the Trojans is Lane Kiffin is an average coach and USC should be 8-0 coming into this encounter. USC IS ATS(L10G) Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) OREGON IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) In November OREGON IS 8-17 ATS(L25G) as Fav Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per carry(cs) MATCHUPS (395) RICE ( ) [SU:3-6 ATS:5-3-1] AT (396) TULANE [SU:2-6 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA) RICE [4.5] [6.6] [5.4] [7.7] TULANE [1.8] [6.4] [5.7] [7.7] RICE IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 6.0 yards per play(cs) (397) HAWAII [SU:1-6 ATS:1-5] AT (398) FRESNO ST ( ) [SU:6-3 ATS:8-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - BULLDOG STADIUM (FRESNO, CA) HAWAII [3.4] [5.2] [5.1] [7.7] FRESNO ST [4.6] [7.5] [4.3] [5.5] FRESNO ST IS 9-1 ATS(L10G) All Games (399) ARIZONA [SU:5-3 ATS:5-3] AT (400) UCLA (-3 71) [SU:6-2 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on PAC12 - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA) ARIZONA (24) [4.9] [7.4] [4.4] [7.3] UCLA (25) [5.0] [7.8] [4.2] [7.1] UCLA IS 18-7 UNDER(L25G) at Home Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per point(l25g) (401) NEW MEXICO [SU:4-5 ATS:5-3] AT (402) UNLV (NL NL) [SU:1-8 ATS:7-1-1] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - SAM BOYD STADIUM (LAS VEGAS, NV) NEW MEXICO [5.8] [4.5] [5.0] [8.0] UNLV [4.2] [6.1] [4.8] [8.3] NEW MEXICO IS 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on Road Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per point(l25g) 32 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

34 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (403) SAN DIEGO ST [SU:6-3 ATS:5-4] AT (404) BOISE ST ( ) [SU:7-1 ATS:5-3] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on CBSS - BRONCO STADIUM (BOISE, ID) SAN DIEGO ST [4.9] [8.1] [3.5] [7.4] BOISE ST (19) [4.6] [7.2] [3.7] [5.5] It is the biggest game of the season to date in the Mountain West, with San Diego State riding a four-game winning streak and Boise State nationally ranked. The Aztecs offense and defense is much better since losing consecutive conflicts in late September and they will have to depend on backup QB Adam Dingwell to play fantastic with Ryan Katz out. S.D. State is a miserable 0-7 ATS after totaling 475 or more yards of offense. Against inferior competition, the Boise State offense has begun to jell, making this a truer test how far they have advanced. A win here keeps the Broncos in the conversation for a BCS bid and they are ATS after visiting winner. BOISE ST IS ATS(L25G) Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or more(cs) BOISE ST IS UNDER(L10G) at Home Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per point(cs) SAN DIEGO ST IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) as Dog Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per play(cs) (405) FLA ATLANTIC [SU:2-6 ATS:6-2] AT (406) NAVY ( ) [SU:5-3 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM on CBBS - NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUM (ANNAPOLIS, MD) FLA ATLANTIC [3.4] [6.3] [4.9] [8.6] NAVY [5.0] [8.1] [4.4] [7.4] FL ATLANTIC IS 1-9 ATS(L10G) In November (407) FLA INTERNATIONAL ( ) [SU:1-8 ATS:3-6] AT (408) S ALABAMA [SU:2-6 ATS:4-4] NOVEMBER 3, :30 PM - LADD-PEEBLES STADIUM (MOBILE, AL) MATCHUPS FLA INTERNATIONAL [3.5] [7.6] [4.4] [7.3] S ALABAMA [3.4] [5.9] [3.7] [7.4] FLORIDA INTL IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29 PPG(CS) (409) TROY [SU:4-4 ATS:4-4] AT (410) TENNESSEE ( ) [SU:3-5 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN3 - NEYLAND STADIUM (KNOXVILLE, TN) TROY [4.3] [7.2] [4.2] [8.1] TENNESSEE [4.5] [7.9] [4.7] [7.8] TENNESSEE IS 8-1 OVER(L10G) All Games (411) ARKANSAS ST (-5 59) [SU:5-3 ATS:4-4] AT (412) NORTH TEXAS [SU:3-5 ATS:3-5] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM - APOGEE STADIUM (DENTON, TX) ARKANSAS ST [5.1] [7.5] [4.4] [6.7] NORTH TEXAS [4.4] [7.7] [5.0] [7.0] ARKANSAS ST IS 18-7 UNDER(L25G) as favorite of 7 or less points 33 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

35 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly MATCHUPS (413) LA LAFAYETTE [SU:4-3 ATS:3-4] AT (414) LA MONROE ( ) [SU:6-2 ATS:6-2] NOVEMBER 3, :00 PM on ESPN3 - MALONE STADIUM (MONROE, LA) LA LAFAYETTE [4.9] [7.7] [3.7] [7.6] LA MONROE [4.7] [7.0] [3.5] [6.9] This is without a doubt the best rivalry in the Sun Belt in the Battle of the Bayou. UL-Monroe might be in first place in the SBC and Lafayette might be off a pair of conference setbacks, but forget everything when these two squads collide. Eight of the last dozen battles have been settled by six points or less and the favorite is 2-12 against the spread. Playing a wicked non-conference slate, UL-Monroe is in position to win its first outright Sun Belt championship, with QB Kolton Browning at the controls. The Warhawks will have to curtail the penalties, even though the Ragin Cajuns have lost three straight to the oddsmakers. The visitor is 13-2 ATS past 15 years. LA LAFAYETTE IS 9-1 ATS(L10G) on Road As underdog LA LAFAYETTE IS 17-8 ATS(L25G) as Dog All Games LA MONROE IS 15-9 OVER(L25G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per point(cs) MATCHUPS 34 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

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