Chinese and foreign men s decathlon performance comparison and structural factor correlation test based on SPSS regression model

Transcription

1 ISSN : Volume 10 Issue 3 Chnese and foregn men s decathlon performance comparson and structural factor correlaton test based on SPSS regresson model Pengfe Zhang*, Jngjng Lu Insttute of Physcal Educaton, Baoshan Unversty, Baoshan , Yunnan, (CHINA) BTAIJ, 10(3), 2014 [ ] ABSTRACT By consultng lots of documents, adopt grey correlaton analyss and factor analyss to make research on Chnese and foregn decathlon athletes total performances and each sngle tem performance nternal relatons and athletes performance nternal structure, and do comparatve analyss, fnd out Chnese athletes and world level athletes performance man gaps, whch provdes certan theoretcal bass for Chnese men s decathlon tranng plan desgnng, athletes scentfc selecton and athletcs development. Rey correlaton analyss result shows that Chnese athletes each sngle tem to total performance nfluences ranked by correlaton degree as 110m hurdle>100m>long jump>400m> hgh jump> pole vault>shot put> javeln throw> dscus throw>1500m; and world rank as: 110m hurdle> long jump>100m>400m>pole vault>hgh jump>javeln throw>shot put>dscus throw>1500m. It s clear that domestc athletes stll keep larger some paces wth foregn excellent athletes by comparng n hgher specal technque requrement pole vault and javeln throw the two events; factor analyss result shows that durng Chnese and foregn excellent athletes performance structures, 100m,400m, 110m hurdle the three sngle tems take largest effects, they can be called as speed, explosve power factor; dscus throw, javeln throw and shot put the three tems take the secondary effects, whch can be called as strength factors; hgh jump effects are the thrd ones, whch can be called as smart factor. All the four factors are related to speed qualty, thereupon t reveals that men s decathlon s core featured wth speed Trade Scence Inc. - INDIA KEYWORDS Grey correlaton analyss,factor analyss, regresson model, decathlon INTRODUCTION Wth Olympc Games as well as other major sportng events successful hostng n Chna, Chnese sports have come a long way, but athletcs backward level stll s the key factor that restrcts Chnese sports compettve levels mprovng, especally for athletcs events decathlon compettve level and world athletcs level generate huge dfferences, and accordng to data analyss, though Chnese decathlon athletes catch up wth and surpass world advanced level n short term s stll a longterm objectve, only f we can correctly fnd out Chnese decathlon backward nternal causes, make mprovement, learn from each other strong ponts to make up for shortcomngs, acheve leadng poston n Asa durng short-term can be completely realzed.

2 442 Chnese and foregn men s decathlon performance comparson and structurall BTAIJ, 10(3) 2014 The one gets athletcs gets the world such words explan athletcs mportant role n sports compettve court, men s decathlon s always named as the kng of athletcs, whle someone call t as ronman competton event. Athletcs men s decathlon has been formally set up n the 5 th Olympc Games n 1912, untl now the event settng hasn t changed, whch s composed of 100m, long jump, shot put, hgh jump, 400m, 110m hurdle, dscus throw, pole vault, javeln throw and 1500m. Usually factor analyss generated factors can fnally acheve namng explanatory by all knds of ways. Factors namng soluton to each sngle tem, t s mpossble to arrve at completely balance, system and thngs are composed of multple factors, mbalanced development and dynamc changes among factors decde complex n predcton of system and thngs. Based on that, ths paper accordng to Chnese and foregn 28 excellent allround athletes competton performance, adopts SPSS software respectvely makng factor analyss and establshng every sngle tem performance and total performance multple lnear regresson predcton model, n the hope of better explorng decathlon nternal elements structures and project rules features. CHINESE AND FOREIGN MEN S DECATH- LON TOTAL PERFORMANCES AND EACH SINGLE ITEM PERFORMANCES INTER- NAL RELATIONS GREY CORRELATION ANALYSIS By collected the 11 th natonal games data, select Chnese and world top 14 excellent men s decathlon athletes as research objects, ther performance total scores and each sngle tem score as followng TABLE 1, TABLE 2 show, t bascally represents Chnese and foregn men s decathlon top level. Accordng to grey system theory, t can regard decathlon as a grey system, and make grey correlaton analyss of selected research objects performance. By correlaton degree analyss, t s clear that every sngle tem performance effects on total performance as well as ts poston n all-round tranng. TABLE 1: Chnese 14 excellent men s decathlon athletes each sngle tem performance and total performance By observng TABLE 1, TABLE 2, t s clear that athletes each sngle tem performance and total performance has the same dmenson, t s no need to make dmensonless wth data. Select each athlete total performance x ( ) as reference sequence: 0 k x0 { x0 ( k) k 1,2,, n} { x0 (1), x0 (2),, x0 ( n)} (From whch k represents the k athlete) Select each athlete each sngle tem performance x (k) as comparson sequence: x { x ( k) k 1,2,, n} { x (1), x (2),, x ( n)} (From whch represents the sngle tem) It can get the k athlete comparson sequence x to reference sequence x correlaton coeffcent: 0 mn mn x0 (t) xs (t) max max x0 (t) xs (t) s t s t (k) x (k) x (k) max max x (t) x (t) (1) 0 0 s s t Among them, [ 0,1 ] s resoluton coeffcent. It s called formula (1) mn mnx 0( t ) x ( t ) as two-level mnmum dfference, s t s max maxx 0( t ) x ( t ) two-level maxmum dfference. Generally speakng, the bgger resoluton coeffcent s, the bgger resoluton rate would be; the smaller s, the smaller resoluton rate would be. Formula (1) defned correlaton coeffcents data turn to be excessve dspersve not convenent to compare, therefore t can adopt average correlaton degree to make comparson. r n k 1 (k) n ( s t r s sequence x to reference sequence x 0 correlaton degree) (2) Accordng to Chnese and world excellent men s decathlon athletes sports performance data table n 2012 (TABLE 1, TABLE 2) data, apply MATLAB software programmng calculaton, t gets Chnese and world excellent athletes all-round performances and each sngle tem ones correlaton degree as followng TABLE 3, TABLE 4 show: s

3 BTAIJ, 10(3) 2014 Pengfe Zhang and Jngjng Lu 443 TABLE 1 : Chnese 14 excellent men s decathlon athletes each sngle tem performance and total performance Rank Athlete 1500m Javeln throw Pole vault 110m hurdle 100m 400m Shot put Hgh jump Long jump Dscus throw Total performance 1 Q Ha-Feng Yu Bng Zhu Heng-Jun Lu Ha-Bo Hao Mng Wang Jan-Bo Zhao De-Nng Lu Huan-Yong Guo We-Zhao L Ya-Gu Ln Qng-Quan Yang Wen-Lang Tang Jun Zhou Bn TABLE 2 : World 14 excellent men s decathlon athletes each sngle tem performance and total performance data table Rank Athlete Country 1500m Javeln throw Pole vault 110m hurdle 100m 400m Shot put Hgh jump Long jump Dscus throw Total performance 1 Ashton Eaton Amerca Trey Hardee Amerca Leonel Suarez Cuba Hans van Alphen Belgum Warner Canada Rco Fremuth Germany Oleksy Kasyanov Ukrane SergeySvrdov Russa Kerzen South Afrca Pascal Behrenbruch Germany Eelco Netherlands Newdck New Zealand Barrolhet Chle Gazta Cuba TABLE 3 : Chnese excellent athletes all-round performance and each sngle tem correlaton degree Item 110m hurdle 100m Long jump 400m Hgh jump Correlaton degree Rank Item Pole vault Shot put Javeln throw Dscus throw 1500m Correlaton degree Rank From TABLE 3, TABLE 4, t s clear that Ch- nese athletes each sngle tem to total performance n-

4 444 Chnese and foregn men s decathlon performance comparson and structurall BTAIJ, 10(3) 2014 TABLE 4 : World excellent athletes all-round performance and each sngle tem correlaton degree Item 110m hurdle Long jump 100m 400m Pole vault Correlaton degree Rank Item Hgh jump Javeln throw Shot put Dscus throw 1500m Correlaton degree Rank fluences rank by correlaton degree s: 110m hurdle>100m>long jump>400m> hgh jump> pole vault>shot put> javeln throw> dscus throw>1500m; and world rank s 110m hurdle>long jump>100m>400m>pole vault>hgh jump>javeln throw>shot put>dscus throw>1500m. Compared wth foregn athletes rankng, ten sngle tems 110m hurdle, 400m, dscuss throw and 1500 meters rankng are the same, they respectvely rank n the frst, fourth, nnth and tenth, domestc top three also are long jump, 100m and 110m hurdle but there are dfferences n the rank, these three tems all requre horzontal speed takes absolute advantages; foregn pole vault, javeln throw are respectvely rankng n the front of hgh jump, shot put, whle t s opposte at home. It s clear that domestc athletes stll keep larger some paces wth foregn excellent athletes by comparng n hgher specal technque requrement pole vault and javeln throw the two events, whch shows that Chnese athletes have shortcomngs n hgh speed, quck rhythm techncal motons completon abltes, t should be taken serously by Chnese all-round coaches. CHINESE AND FOREIGN MEN S DECATH- LON PERFORMANCE FACTOR ANALYSIS To athletes, t s mpossble to acheve each tem fully balance. Due to connectons exst among tems, and each tem development status decdes athletes total performances, the model accordng to statstcal prncple and method, use SPSS19 statstcs software makng statstcs and handlng wth 28 Chnese and foregn men s decathlon athletes sports performances and each sngle tem performance, and makes research on each large type tem level to total performance effect. Correlaton coeffcent matrx test The model adopts KMO test to make factor analyss ftness testng, nput TABLE 1, TABLE 2 data nto SPSS software, runnng, and then gets as followng TABLE 5: From TABLE 5, t s clear that KMO test result s that above 0.5 ndcates data wth poor partal correlaton and t s ft for factor analyss. Bartlett Value= , P<0.001, shows that correlaton matrx s not a unt matrx; t can carry out factor analyss. Factor analyss Extract prncpal component Frst t should convert every varable value nto standard value. In prncple, the number of factors s the same as that of orgnal varables, but after extractng man factors, f rest varance s qute small, t can abandon other factors so as to acheve the purpose of smplfyng data. The model sets 10 tems as varable, n order, 1500m, javeln throw, pole vault, 110m hurdle, 100m,400m, shot put, hgh jump, long jump, dscus throw. Regard athlete total performance as sample observaton value, apply SPSS to make factor analyss, t can get as followng TABLE 6: From TABLE 6, t s clear accordng to professonal knowledge judgment, t selects four prncpal components. The four prncpal components accumulaton contrbuton rate arrves at % that above 80 %, therefore, t can be thought that the four TABLE 5 : KMO and bartlett test Samplng suffcent degrees Kaser-Meyer-Olkn measurement. Bartlett sphercty degree test.765 approxmate to ch-square df 45 Sg..000

5 BTAIJ, 10(3) 2014 Pengfe Zhang and Jngjng Lu 445 Component Component prncpal components loaded sports sngle tem s decathlon athletes scorng uppermost tem. Factor rotaton TABLE 6 : Each tem varance and accumulaton contrbuton rate Intal feature value Generally, after extractng ntal factors, t cannot make effectve explanaton on factors. At ths tme, t tends to requre makng factor rotaton (rotaton); t makes factor soluton sgnfcance more easly to explan by coordnate transformaton. The purpose of axs rotaton s to change subjects szes n each factor load; when rotatng axs, t adjusts each factor load szes accordng to subjects and factors structural relatons close level; after axs rotatng, let varable every factor load get bgger (close to 1) or smaller (close to 0), whch s dfferent from the status that each factor has almost same load before axs rotatng, t lets common factors namng Explanatory total varance Extract squaresum and load n Total Varance % Accumulaton % Total Varance % Accumulaton % TABLE 7 : Explanatory total varance Rotatonal square sum load n Total Varance % Accumulaton % TABLE 8 : Factor load after rotaton Rotatonal component matrx a Component m m m hurdle Long jump Dscus throw Javeln throw Shot put Hgh jump m Pole vault Extract method: Prncpal component; Rotaton method: Kaser standardzed orthogonal rotaton method.; a. Rotaton convergent after 5 tmes teraton and explanatory varables get more easly. After axs rotatng, every common factor feature value wll change but every varable commonalty wll not change. Extracted each prncpal component accumulaton contrbuton rate after factor rotaton s as followng TABLE 7: From TABLE 7, t s clear that extracted each prncpal component accumulaton rate after factor rotaton doesn t change and stll s %, but feature values tend to concentrate and values all above 1. By orthogonal varmax rotaton, after 5 tmes rotatng, t gets as followng TABLE 8:

6 446 Chnese and foregn men s decathlon performance comparson and structurall BTAIJ, 10(3) 2014 Model R R Square From TABLE 8, t s clear the frst prncpal component larger load varables are 100m, 400m, 110m hurdle, and long jump. Second prncpal component larger load varables are dscus throw, javeln throw, and shot put. The thrd prncpal component larger load varable s hgh jump. The fourth prncpal component larger load varable s pole vault. Factor analyss result TABLE 9 : Model Summary b Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estmate a a. Predctors: (Constant), dscus throw, 110m hurdle, hgh jump, pole vault, long jump, javeln throw, 1500m, 100m, shot put, 400m; b. Dependent Varable: total performance Model TABLE 10 : ANOVA b Sum of Squares df Mean Square a. Predctors: (Constant), dscus throw, 110m hurdle, hgh jump, pole vault, long jump, javeln throw, 1500m, 100m, shot put, 400m; b. Dependent Varable: total performance F Sg. Regresson 1.135E a 1 Resdual Total 1.145E7 27 From factor analyss result, t s clear that durng Chnese and foregn excellent athletes performance structures, 100m, 400m, 110m hurdle the three sngle tems take largest effects, they can be called as speed, explosve power factor; dscus throw, javeln throw and shot put the three tems take the secondary effects, whch can be called as strength factors; hgh jump effects are the thrd ones, whch can be called as smart factor; the mnmum effects tem s 1500m, t can be called as speed endurance factor. The four factors structure can explan that Chnese and foregn excellent athletes stll focus on absolute speed tranng durng tranng; dscus throw, javeln throw and shot put that rank n the second factors not only requre athletes have suffcent guarantee n absolute strength, but also they have hgh correlatons wth ndvdual speed qualty, though they are not remarkable n scorng contrbuton rate aspect throwng type events by comparng wth other types events, under present all-round sport gudng thought of balanced development, elmnate weak events, the type factor effects are self-evdent; only hgh jump one tem ranks n the thrd factor, due to hgh jump s power generated by horzontal speed and vertcal speed common functons mutual transformaton, meanwhle t also has specal requrements on athletes body shape, specally classfes t as one type; n speed endurance factor, t smlarly has requrements on athletes body shape that are dfferent from the frst, second factor requrements, but the four types of factors always correlated to speed qualty, therefore, men s decathlon wth the core speed conforms to current development trend. To men s decathlon athletes, they should comprehensve develop each tem physcal qualty, especally for speed, strength and technque, and n future tranng, t should focus on strengthen techncal aspect tranng on the bass of speed, strength consoldaton. MULTIPLE REGRESSION PREDICTION MODEL Gven all-round tems 10 sngle tem performances are ndependent varables, total performance s dependent varables. Adopt enter ndependent together to make lnear regresson, apply SPSS software handlng Model TABLE 11 : Coeffcents a Unstandardzed Coeffcents Standardzed Coeffcents B Std. Error Beta t Sg. (Constant) m Javeln throw Pole vault m hurdle m m Shot put Hgh jump Long jump Dscus throw a. Dependent Varable: Total performance

7 BTAIJ, 10(3) 2014 Pengfe Zhang and Jngjng Lu 447 wth TABLE 1, t can get as followng TABLE 9, TABLE 10 and TABLE 11: TABLE 9 s model s goodness of ft test; from table t s clear that both square coeffcent and after adjustng square coeffcent arrve at above 0.99 that shows model has hgh fttng goodness. TABLE 10 s model varance test, from table, t s clear that F , sgnfcance correlaton probablty s a , whch turns sgnfcant dfferences. TABLE 11 s regresson calculaton process each equaton coeffcent table, from table, t s clear that t Test shows sgnfcant level. Accordng to TABLE 11, t can get relatve each tem all-round non-standard regresson model: Y X X X X X X X X X X TABLE 12 : Compare predcted value wth actual value Accuracy rate average value X1 X 10 are ndependent varables, whch respectvely correspondng represents 1500m, javeln throw, pole vault, 110m hurdle, 100m, 400m, shot put, hgh jump, long jump, dscus throw each tem performance;y s dependent varable, t represents decathlon total performance) Name Predcted total performance Actual total performance Predcton accuracy rate Q Ha-Feng , Yu Bng , Zhu Heng-Jun , Lu Ha-Bo , Hao Mng , Wang Jan-Bo , Zhao De-Nng , Lu Huan-Yong , Guo We-Zhao , L Ya-Gu , Ln Qng-Quan , Yang Wen-Lang , Tang Jun , Zhou Bn , Ashton Eaton , Trey Hardee , Leonel Suarez , Hans van Alphen , Warner , Rco Fremuth , Oleksy Kasyanov , SergeySvrdov , Kerzen , Pascal Behrenbruch , EelcoSntncolaas , Newdck , Barrolhet , Gazta ,

8 448 Chnese and foregn men s decathlon performance comparson and structurall BTAIJ, 10(3) 2014 Input Chnese and foregn excellent all-round athletes each sngle tem performance nto predcton model, t gets predcton total performance, and make comparson between predcted value and actual value. It can get as followng TABLE 12: From TABLE 12, t s clear that model predcton accuracy average value s ; therefore model predcton accuracy s very hgh. The predcton equaton completely can predct Chnese and foregn excellent decathlon athletes total performance. CONCLUSIONS Grey theory correlaton analyss method s scentfc reasonable, easy, especally n multple factors, multple levels comprehensve research analyss, accordng to correlaton degree szes, t can further fnd out Chnese and foregn gap, meanwhle t can provde relable and feasble evdence and reference for mprovng and promotng Chnese decathlon even to other sports levels. Rey correlaton analyss result shows that Chnese athletes each sngle tem to total performance nfluences rank by correlaton degree s: 110m hurdle>100m>long jump>400m> hgh jump> pole vault>shot put> javeln throw> dscus throw>1500m; and world rank s 110m hurdle>long jump>100m>400m>pole vault>hgh jump>javeln throw>shot put>dscus throw>1500m. Compared wth foregn athletes rankng, ten sngle tems 110m hurdle, 400m, dscuss throw and 1500 meters rankng are the same, they respectvely rank n the frst, fourth, nnth and tenth, domestc top three also are long jump, 100m and 110m hurdle but there are dfferences n the rank, these three tems all requre horzontal speed takes absolute advantages; foregn pole vault, javeln throw are respectvely rankng n the front of hgh jump, shot put, whle t s opposte at home. It s clear that domestc athletes stll keep larger some paces wth foregn excellent athletes by comparng n hgher specal technque requrement pole vault and javeln throw the two events, whch shows that Chnese athletes have shortcomngs n hgh speed, quck rhythm techncal motons completon abltes, t should be taken serously by Chnese all-round coaches. It suggests that Chnese coaches further strengthen athletes physcal tranng, further mprove athletes contnuous game abltes, let athletes each sub tem performance get coordnate and balanced development. From factor analyss result, t s clear that durng Chnese and foregn excellent athletes performance structures, 100m, 400m, 110m hurdle the three sngle tems take largest effects, they can be called as speed, explosve power factor; dscus throw, javeln throw and shot put the three tems take the secondary effects, whch can be called as strength factors; hgh jump effects are the thrd ones, whch can be called as smart factor; the mnmum effects tem s 1500m, t can be called as speed endurance factor. The four factors structure can explan that Chnese and foregn excellent athletes stll focus on absolute speed tranng durng tranng; dscus throw, javeln throw and shot put that rank n the second factors not only requre athletes have suffcent guarantee n absolute strength, but also they have hgh correlatons wth ndvdual speed qualty, though they are not remarkable n scorng contrbuton rate aspect throwng type events by comparng wth other types events, under present all-round sport gudng thought of balanced development, elmnate weak events, the type factor effects are self-evdent; only hgh jump one tem ranks n the thrd factor, due to hgh jump s power generated by horzontal speed and vertcal speed common functons mutual transformaton, meanwhle t also has specal requrements on athletes body shape, specally classfes t as one type; n speed endurance factor, t smlarly has requrements on athletes body shape that are dfferent from the frst, second factor requrements, but the four types of factors always correlated to speed qualty, therefore, men s decathlon wth the core speed conforms to current development trend. All-round sports tranng s a long-term and complcated work, t asks hgh for athletes physcal ablty and contnuous game ablty. Coaches should be good at learnng, summarzng experences, apply advanced tranng methods and ways nto scentfc tranng, strengthen theoretcal learnng, update deals, correctly learn themselves status and athletes themselves tranng features, further mprove athletes contnuous game abltes, let athletes each sub tem performance get coordnate and balanced development. Strengthen coaches mutual exchangng, go abroad to learn foregn advanced tranng methods, desgn reasonable and effectve tranng method by combnng wth Chnese athletes them-

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