Internet Appendix for Industry Interdependencies and Cross-Industry Return Predictability
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1 Internet Appendx for Industry Interdependences and Cross-Industry Return Predctablty June 2, 2014 Ths Internet Appendx reports the complete set of addtonal results descrbed n the paper. Tables AI and AII report complete results for the prncpal component predctve regresson specfcatons that nclude an autoregressve term and the lagged market return, respectvely, dscussed n Secton I.A of the paper. Tables AIII and AIV do lkewse for the target-relevant factor specfcatons dscussed n Secton I.B of the paper. Table AVI reports complete results for the adaptve LASSO specfcaton that ncludes lagged economc varables dscussed n Secton I.C of the paper. The followng s the set of economc varables from Goyal and Welch (2008) used n Tables III and V of the paper and Table AVI below. Log dvdend-prce rato (DP): log of a twelve-month movng sum of dvdends pad on the S&P 500 ndex mnus the log of stock prces (S&P 500 ndex). Log dvdend yeld (DY): log of a twelve-month movng sum of dvdends mnus the log of lagged stock prces. Log earnngs-prce rato (EP): log of a twelve-month movng sum of earnngs on the S&P 500 ndex mnus the log of stock prces. Log dvdend-payout rato (DE): log of a twelve-month movng sum of dvdends mnus the log of a twelve-month movng sum of earnngs. 1
2 Equty rsk premum volatlty (RVOL): based on a twelve-month movng standard devaton estmator (Mele (2007)). Book-to-market rato (BM): book-to-market value rato for the DJIA. Net equty expanson (NTIS): rato of a twelve-month movng sum of net equty ssues by NYSE-lsted stocks to the total end-of-year market captalzaton of NYSE stocks. Treasury bll rate (TBL): nterest rate on a three-month Treasury bll (secondary market). Long-term yeld (LTY): long-term government bond yeld. Long-term return (LTR): return on long-term government bonds. Term spread (TMS): long-term yeld mnus the Treasury bll rate. Default yeld spread (DFY): d erence between Moody s BAA- and AAA-rated corporate bond yelds. Default return spread (DFR): long-term corporate bond return mnus the long-term government bond return. Inflaton (INFL): calculated from the CPI for all urban consumers; we use an extra lag for nflaton to account for the delay n CPI releases. REFERENCE Mele, Antono, 2007, Asymmetrc stock market volatlty and the cyclcal behavor of expected returns, Journal of Fnancal Economcs 86,
3 Table AI Prncpal Component Predctve Regresson Results wth Autoregressve Term, Monthly Industry Portfolo Excess Returns, 1960: :12 The table reports ordnary least squares estmates of b IND,k (k = 1,2,3) and bar and the R 2 statstc for the predctve regresson model, R,t+1 = a + P 3 k=1 bind ˆF IND + b AR,k k,t R,t + ",t+1, where R,t+1 s the excess return on ndustry portfolo and ˆF 1,t IND, ˆF 2,t IND, and ˆF 3, IND t are the frst three prncpal component extracted from all 30 ndustry portfolo excess returns. The prncpal components are standardzed to have zero mean and unt varance. Brackets report heteroskedastcty-robust t-statstcs;,, ndcate sgnfcance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectvely. Parentheses below the R 2 statstcs reports adjusted R 2 statstcs. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12),1,2,3 ˆb AR R 2,1,2,3 ˆb AR R 2 FOOD % CARRY % [0.61] [ 1.77] [ 1.28] [ 0.05] (1.22%) [1.14] [ 0.25] [ 2.26] [0.82] (2.16%) BEER % MINES % [2.59] [ 3.58] [ 0.26] [ 2.10] (2.13%) [1.54] [0.06] [ 0.39] [ 0.60] (0.14%) SMOKE % COAL % [0.97] [ 1.60] [0.59] [ 0.18] (0.24%) [ 0.57] [0.12] [ 2.49] [1.69] (1.39%) GAMES % OIL % [2.85] [ 0.55] [ 2.67] [ 0.96] (3.74%) [0.71] [1.51] [ 0.85] [ 0.48] (0.56%) BOOKS % UTIL % [1.03] [ 1.68] [ 2.02] [1.21] (4.51%) [ 1.95] [0.01] [ 2.45] [2.83] (1.12%) HSHLD % TELCM % [2.73] [ 3.61] [ 1.52] [ 1.89] (2.63%) [ 0.45] [ 1.04] [ 1.09] [0.90] (0.12%)
4 Table AI (contnued) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12),1,2,3 ˆb AR R 2,1,2,3 ˆb AR R 2 CLTHS % SERVS % [0.26] [ 1.55] [ 1.68] [1.48] (3.73%) [0.08] [ 1.60] [ 0.74] [0.71] (0.60%) HLTH % BUSEQ % [1.58] [ 2.75] [ 0.56] [ 1.57] (1.21%) [0.19] [ 1.32] [0.10] [0.78] (0.29%) CHEMS % PAPER % [ 0.19] [ 0.94] [ 2.25] [0.84] (0.61%) [1.81] [ 1.97] [ 2.46] [ 1.37] (2.03%) TXTLS % TRANS % [2.17] [ 1.25] [ 2.79] [ 0.13] (4.73%) [0.29] [ 1.12] [ 1.43] [0.85] (0.83%) CNSTR % WHLSL % [1.37] [ 1.51] [ 1.83] [ 0.01] (2.22%) [1.36] [ 0.58] [ 2.44] [0.46] (2.92%) STEEL % RTAIL % [2.08] [0.96] [ 0.60] [ 1.28] (0.46%) [ 0.17] [ 2.15] [ 0.79] [1.28] (2.66%) FABPR % MEALS % [0.33] [ 0.14] [ 1.12] [0.53] (0.80%) [1.19] [ 2.52] [ 3.69] [0.82] (5.18%) ELCEQ % FIN % [2.04] [ 0.86] [ 1.69] [ 1.50] (0.84%) [ 1.25] [ 0.72] [ 1.99] [2.41] (2.55%) AUTOS % OTHER % [2.15] [ 0.48] [ 2.30] [ 0.42] (2.42%) [1.12] [ 0.56] [ 2.20] [0.56] (1.81%)
5 Table AII Prncpal Component Predctve Regresson Results wth Lagged Market Excess Return, Monthly Industry Portfolo Excess Returns, 1960: :12 The table reports ordnary least squares estmates of b IND,k (k = 1,2,3) and bmkt and the R 2 statstc for the predctve regresson model, R,t+1 = a + P 3 k=1 bind ˆF IND + b MKT,k k,t MKT t + ",t+1, where R,t+1 s the excess return on ndustry portfolo ; ˆF 1,t IND, ˆF 2,t IND, and ˆF 3, IND t are the frst three prncpal component extracted from all 30 ndustry portfolo excess returns; and MKT t s the excess return on the S&P 500 ndex. The prncpal components and market return are standardzed to have zero mean and unt varance. Brackets report heteroskedastcty-robust t-statstcs;,, ndcate sgnfcance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectvely. Parentheses below the R 2 statstcs reports adjusted R 2 statstcs. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12),1,2,3 ˆb MKT R 2,1,2,3 ˆb MKT R 2 FOOD % CARRY % [2.66] [ 2.47] [ 0.98] [ 2.34] (2.17%) [0.35] [ 0.15] [ 2.30] [0.54] (2.11%) BEER % MINES % [1.22] [ 2.60] [ 0.77] [ 0.86] (1.36%) [0.72] [ 0.36] [ 0.63] [ 0.16] (0.07%) SMOKE % COAL % [3.24] [ 2.06] [1.10] [ 2.95] (1.94%) [0.57] [1.07] [ 1.66] [ 0.39] (0.85%) GAMES % OIL % [1.56] [ 0.59] [ 2.31] [ 0.35] (3.60%) [0.82] [1.42] [ 1.68] [ 0.69] (0.59%) BOOKS % UTIL % [1.53] [ 1.89] [ 2.43] [ 0.27] (4.27%) [ 1.21] [ 0.50] [ 0.94] [1.26] ( 0.11%) HSHLD % TELCM % [1.06] [ 2.62] [ 1.42] [ 0.50] (2.06%) [ 0.35] [ 1.14] [ 1.11] [0.44] ( 0.03%)
6 Table AII (contnued) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12),1,2,3 ˆb MKT R 2,1,2,3 ˆb MKT R 2 CLTHS % SERVS % [1.30] [ 1.69] [ 2.24] [ 0.41] (3.28%) [1.00] [ 1.58] [ 0.77] [ 0.62] (0.57%) HLTH % BUSEQ % [1.26] [ 2.38] [ 0.84] [ 1.08] (0.96%) [ 0.06] [ 1.04] [ 0.24] [0.44] (0.19%) CHEMS % PAPER % [0.61] [ 0.71] [ 2.01] [ 0.29] (0.52%) [0.66] [ 1.96] [ 2.26] [ 0.22] (1.70%) TXTLS % TRANS % [0.89] [ 1.23] [ 2.76] [0.41] (4.74%) [0.97] [ 1.07] [ 1.56] [ 0.41] (0.74%) CNSTR % WHLSL % [0.81] [ 1.49] [ 1.78] [0.12] (2.22%) [2.28] [ 0.66] [ 2.13] [ 1.23] (3.15%) STEEL % RTAIL % [0.05] [0.10] [ 0.59] [0.49] (0.13%) [0.54] [ 2.89] [ 1.46] [0.09] (2.38%) FABPR % MEALS % [0.46] [0.24] [ 1.16] [0.23] (0.75%) [2.04] [ 2.91] [ 3.65] [ 1.12] (5.24%) ELCEQ % FIN % [0.37] [ 1.00] [ 1.37] [0.05] (0.43%) [0.75] [ 1.34] [ 1.76] [ 0.12] (1.24%) AUTOS % OTHER % [0.21] [ 0.54] [ 2.21] [0.73] (2.48%) [1.72] [ 0.66] [ 1.93] [ 0.87] (1.89%)
7 Table AIII Target-Relevant Factor Predctve Regresson Results wth Autoregressve Term, Monthly Industry Portfolo Excess Returns, 1960: :12 The table reports ordnary least squares estmates of b IND and b AR and the R 2 statstc for the predctve regresson model, R,t+1 = a + b IND Ĝ IND,t + b AR R,t + ",t+1, where R,t+1 s the excess return on ndustry portfolo and Ĝ IND, t s the target-relevant factor extracted from all 30 ndustry portfolo excess returns. The target-relevant factor s estmated usng the Kelly and Prutt (2012) three-pass regresson flter. The target-relevant factor s standardzed to have zero mean and unt varance. Parentheses report heteroskedastcty-robust t-statstcs;,, ndcate sgnfcance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectvely. Parentheses below the R 2 statstcs reports adjusted R 2 statstcs. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) ˆb AR R 2 ˆb AR R 2 ˆb AR R 2 FOOD % CNSTR % TELCM % [3.53] [0.87] (2.65%) [3.52] [1.61] (3.91%) [3.48] [0.11] (2.54%) BEER % STEEL % SERVS % [3.36] [0.20] (1.88%) [2.80] [ 0.47] (1.67%) [2.77] [0.59] (1.77%) SMOKE % FABPR % BUSEQ % [3.80] [0.86] (3.35%) [2.82] [0.41] (2.26%) [3.74] [0.32] (3.18%) GAMES % ELCEQ % PAPER % [3.30] [0.95] (4.08%) [3.05] [ 0.24] (1.79%) [3.63] [0.16] (3.01%) BOOKS % AUTOS % TRANS % [2.98] [2.23] (5.33%) [3.23] [0.35] (3.90%) [3.56] [0.89] (2.74%) HSHLD % CARRY % WHLSL % [3.53] [0.62] (2.94%) [3.67] [1.51] (3.42%) [4.18] [1.44] (4.37%) CLTHS % MINES % RTAIL % [3.25] [1.84] (5.14%) [3.81] [0.75] (2.09%) [3.20] [1.73] (3.72%) HLTH % COAL % MEALS % [3.56] [ 0.03] (1.98%) [2.73] [ 0.73] (2.53%) [4.86] [1.69] (6.49%) CHEMS % OIL % FIN % [3.14] [0.47] (2.05%) [4.40] [ 0.80] (2.67%) [3.28] [1.78] (3.75%) TXTLS % UTIL % OTHER % [4.12] [0.60] (5.84%) [4.39] [1.66] (4.15%) [3.86] [1.05] (3.24%)
8 Table AIV Target-Relevant Factor Predctve Regresson Results wth Lagged Market Excess Return, Monthly Industry Portfolo Excess Returns, 1960: :12 The table reports ordnary least squares estmates of b IND and b MKT and the R 2 statstc for the predctve regresson model, R,t+1 = a + b IND Ĝ IND,t + b MKT MKT t + ",t+1, where R,t+1 s the excess return on ndustry portfolo, Ĝ IND,t s the target-relevant factor extracted from all 30 ndustry portfolo excess returns, and MKT t s the excess return on the S&P 500 ndex. The target-relevant factor s estmated usng the Kelly and Prutt (2012) three-pass regresson flter. The target-relevant factor and market excess return are standardzed to have zero mean and unt varance. Parentheses report heteroskedastcty-robust t-statstcs;,, ndcate sgnfcance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectvely. Parentheses below the R 2 statstcs reports adjusted R 2 statstcs. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) ˆb MKT R 2 ˆb MKT R 2 ˆb MKT R 2 FOOD % CNSTR % TELCM % [3.74] [0.34] (2.48%) [3.55] [1.87] (4.06%) [3.69] [0.15] (2.54%) BEER % STEEL % SERVS % [3.37] [1.11] (2.10%) [2.52] [0.51] (1.65%) [3.04] [0.49] (1.74%) SMOKE % FABPR % BUSEQ % [3.99] [0.75] (3.34%) [3.13] [0.64] (2.30%) [3.81] [0.88] (3.32%) GAMES % ELCEQ % PAPER % [3.75] [1.98] (4.62%) [3.00] [0.48] (1.83%) [3.56] [0.71] (3.11%) BOOKS % AUTOS % TRANS % [3.91] [2.15] (5.09%) [3.27] [1.46] (4.29%) [3.83] [0.78] (2.72%) HSHLD % CARRY % WHLSL % [3.60] [1.35] (3.25%) [3.74] [1.66] (3.50%) [4.45] [1.24] (4.28%) CLTHS % MINES % RTAIL % [4.15] [1.53] (4.96%) [3.00] [0.55] (2.02%) [4.00] [1.51] (3.59%) HLTH % COAL % MEALS % [3.62] [0.33] (2.02%) [2.98] [ 1.23] (2.72%) [5.48] [1.54] (6.29%) CHEMS % OIL % FIN % [3.19] [0.17] (2.00%) [4.59] [ 1.25] (2.85%) [3.63] [0.88] (3.20%) TXTLS % UTIL % OTHER % [3.87] [2.05] (6.69%) [4.31] [0.35] (3.69%) [3.93] [0.84] (3.19%)
9 Frst-Pass Coe Table AV cent Estmates for the Three-Pass Regresson Flter, Monthly Industry Portfolo Excess Returns, 1960: :12 The table reports ordnary least squares estmates of 1, j for the bvarate regresson model, R j,t = 0, j + 1, j R,t+1 + e j,t, where R j,t s the excess return on ndustry portfolo j; 0.00 ndcates less than n absolute value. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) j FOOD BEER SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD CLTHS HLTH CHEMS TXTLS FOOD BEER SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD CLTHS HLTH CHEMS TXTLS CNSTR STEEL FABPR ELCEQ AUTOS CARRY MINES COAL OIL UTIL TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER TRANS WHLSL RTAIL MEALS FIN OTHER
10 Table AV (contnued) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) j CNSTR STEEL FABPR ELCEQ AUTOS CARRY MINES COAL OIL UTIL FOOD BEER SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD CLTHS HLTH CHEMS TXTLS CNSTR STEEL FABPR ELCEQ AUTOS CARRY MINES COAL OIL UTIL TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER TRANS WHLSL RTAIL MEALS FIN OTHER
11 Table AV (contnued) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) j TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER TRANS WHLSL RTAIL MEALS FIN OTHER FOOD BEER SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD CLTHS HLTH CHEMS TXTLS CNSTR STEEL FABPR ELCEQ AUTOS CARRY MINES COAL OIL UTIL TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER TRANS WHLSL RTAIL MEALS FIN OTHER
12 Table AVI Adaptve LASSO Predctve Regresson Results, Monthly Industry Portfolo Excess Returns, 1960: :12 The table reports adaptve LASSO estmates of b, j for the general predctve regresson model, R, t+1 = a + P 42 j=1 b, j z j, t + ", t+1, where R, t+1 s the excess return on ndustry portfolo and z j, t s one of 30 ndustry excess returns or 12 economc varables lsted above; ndcates that the lagged ndustry portfolo return was not selected by the adaptve LASSO; ndcates sgnfcance accordng to bootstrapped 90% confdence ntervals. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) j FOOD BEER SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD CLTHS HLTH CHEMS TXTLS FOOD BEER 0.02 SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD CLTHS HLTH 0.02 CHEMS 0.14 TXTLS CNSTR 0.06 STEEL FABPR ELCEQ AUTOS 0.06 CARRY MINES COAL OIL UTIL TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER 0.02 TRANS WHLSL RTAIL MEALS FIN OTHER DP DY EP RVOL BM NTIS TBL LTR TMS DFY 0.62 DFR INFL
13 Table AVI (contnued) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) j CNSTR STEEL FABPR ELCEQ AUTOS CARRY MINES COAL OIL UTIL FOOD BEER SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD CLTHS HLTH CHEMS TXTLS CNSTR 0.15 STEEL FABPR ELCEQ 0.01 AUTOS 0.06 CARRY MINES 0.01 COAL OIL UTIL. TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER 0.12 TRANS WHLSL RTAIL 0.16 MEALS 0.06 FIN OTHER DP DY EP RVOL BM 0.01 NTIS 0.04 TBL LTR TMS DFY DFR INFL
14 Table AVI (contnued) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) j TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER TRANS WHLSL RTAIL MEALS FIN OTHER FOOD 0.12 BEER SMOKE GAMES BOOKS HSHLD 0.09 CLTHS HLTH 0.01 CHEMS 0.02 TXTLS CNSTR STEEL FABPR 0.15 ELCEQ AUTOS 0.02 CARRY 0.03 MINES COAL OIL UTIL TELCM SERVS BUSEQ PAPER TRANS 0.02 WHLSL 0.08 RTAIL MEALS 0.10 FIN OTHER 0.08 DP DY EP RVOL BM NTIS TBL LTR TMS DFY 0.24 DFR INFL
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