Wind Power. Kevin Clifford METR 112 April 19, 2011

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1 Wind Power Kevin Clifford METR 112 April 19, 2011

2 Outline Introduction Wind Turbines Determining Wind Power Output The Price of Wind Power Wind Power Availability across the World and US California Wind Power California Wind Power Meteorology Forecasting Wind Power Wind Power and Climate Change The Future of Wind Power

3 Introduction Introduction Video 1Pf 7zk

4 Introduction: Wind Energy is actually a form of solar energy... The earth receives 1.74 x watts of power (per hour) from the sun About 1 2 % of this energy is converted to wind energy This is about times more than the energy converted to biomass by all plants on earth (photosynthesis) Differential heating of the earth s surface and atmosphere induces vertical and horizontal air currents that are affected by the earth s rotation and contours of the land WIND. Sea Breeze Onshore Wind

5 Wind Power: Using Wind Turbines to Convert Kinetic Energy to Electrical Energy

6 Wind Turbines (that work) HAWT: Horizontal Axis VAWT: Vertical Axis

7 Wind Turbines (flights of fancy)

8 Wind Turbine Design

9 Size and Applications Large Turbines ( kw) Installed in Windfarm Arrays Totaling MW Central Station Wind Farms Distributed Power Community Wind $1,000/kW; Designed for Low Cost of Energy Requires 6 m/s (13 mph) Average Sites Small Turbines ( kw) Installed in Rural Residential On-Grid and Off-Grid Homes Farms Remote Application $2,500-5,000/kW; Designed for Reliability / Low Requires 4 m/s (9 mph) Average Sites Maintenance

10 What is a kwh? Average household uses ~11,000 kwh annually Device Wattage Hours used medium window unit AC kwh 1000 watts one hour 1 kwh 1 wind turbine produces ~ 2750 MWh annually (but can vary greatly depending on location and turbine model) One turbine can power 250+ homes a year! large window unit AC small window unit AC 42" ceiling fan on low speed light bulb CFL light bulb 1500 watts one hour 1.5 kwh 500 watts one hour 0.5 kwh 24 watts ten hours 0.24 kwh 100 watts 730 hours (i.e., all month) 73 kwh 25 watts 730 hours 18 kwh

11 Determining Wind Power Output Wind kinetic energy: E mairv Wind power: P wind = k = ρ airπr v Electrical power: C b.35 (<.593 Betz limit ) Max value of N g.75 generator efficiency generated P = = ρ πr de dt N t.95 transmission efficiency 1 4 P = C air 2 v 3 1 b N g N t P wind ( ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 ) v v 2 v v1 v1 v1

12 Optimization Wind Power Production Site selection Altitude, wind strength, constancy, grid access, Turbine selection Design (HAWTs vs VAWTs), vendor, size, quantity, Local topography (hills, ridges, ) Turbulence caused by other turbines Prevailing wind strengths, direction, variance Ground stability (support massive turbines) Grid upgrades: extensions, surge capacity, Non power constraints/preferences Environmental (birds, aesthetics, power lines, ) Cause radar clutter (e.g. near airports, air bases) World s Largest Wind Turbine (7+Megawatts, 400+ feet tall)

13 Wind Power Pricing 12 COE ( /kwh [constant 2000 $]) High wind speed sites Low wind speed sites Bulk Power Competitive Price Band

14 Wind Power Pricing Cost of wind: $.02 $.06/kWh Cost of coal $.02 $.03 (other fossils are more) Cost of solar $.25/kWh Photon Consulting may reach $.10 by 2012 Photon Consulting

15 Wind Power across the World Top Wind Power Producers (2008) Country Wind TWh Total TWh % Wind Germany % USA 35 4,180 < 1% Spain % India % Denmark %

16 Wind Power across the US Installed Wind Power capacity has increase 10x since the mid 90s

17 U.S. Power capacity additions

18 Wind Power Capacity by State

19

20 Wind Power and California

21 California Wind Power Meteorology

22 Late Spring Mid Fall Synoptic Conditions Stable Marine Air Penetration (Zaremba and Carroll, 1999)

23 Acceleration Due to Vertical Compression Tropopause (Barry et al., 1992) Coastal Range Pacific Ocean Central Valley

24 Gravity Wave Formation Background flow = 10 m/s Background flow = 15 m/s Vertical cross sections of potential temperature (solid lines, contour interval 2 K) and horizontal wind speed (shading). Simulations for (a) Fr ~ 1 and (b) Fr < 1. With increased background wind speed, maximum wind perturbation becomes localized to the mountain crest. (Zangl, 2003)

25 Both Gap and Gravity Waves Background flow = 10 m/s 12 m/s 15 m/s Horizontal cross section at a constant height of 250m for simulation (a) Fr= 1.15 and (b) Fr = With increasing air stability, the acceleration due to vertical compression, gap flow acceleration and gravity wave formation cause high wind speeds in the exit of the mountain saddle. (Zangl, 2003)

26 Forecasting Wind Power: CA Majority of wind power produced in CA is within mountainous terrain However, predicting atmospheric conditions in mountainous regions can be very difficult This is a major issue since power produced by renewable sources cannot be used unless the power network is prepared to receive it Still looking for new ways to increase accuracy of wind power prediction for mountain areas

27 Wind Power Modeling WRF wind power modeling High temporal and spatial resolution modeling using domain nesting Better suited for resolving the near surface atmospheric conditions in complex terrain (Rife et al. 2004; Zagar et al. 2006; Jimenez et al. 2010) Our Findings: WRF is statistically much more accurate than other currently used forecasting system Following figures show a typical summer day

28 Wind Power Modeling

29 Wind Power Modeling The comparison sites used for WRF evaluation are from the RAWS (triangles), METAR (circles), CARB (squares), CWOP (stars), and LLNL (diamonds) observation networks. The six white blob Areas are comparison regions of the Altamont Pass wind farm.

30 Wind Power Modeling 11:00 AM Winds and CF decrease through morning hours Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

31 Wind Power Modeling 2:00 PM Winds and CF reach minimum in early afternoon Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

32 Wind Power Modeling 5:00 PM Winds and CF increase by 2-5 m s -1 and 0.2 to 0.3 Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

33 Wind Power Modeling 8:00 PM Winds increases an additional 4-6 m s -1 and CF of >0.9 Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

34 Wind Power Modeling 11:00 PM Further winds and CF increase near peak values Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

35 Wind Power Modeling 2:00 AM (next day) Winds and CF decrease back down to 2000 LT levels Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

36 Wind Power Modeling 5:00 AM (next day) Winds and CF continue to decrease Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

37 Wind Power Modeling 8:00 AM (next day) Winds and CF continue to decrease Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

38 Wind Power Modeling 11:00 AM (next day) Winds are once again light low CF Elevation contoured every 100 m starting at 0 m AMSL (white). (a) Hub height equivalent winds. Wind barbs, 10 m s 1 ; half barb, 5 m s 1. Winds > 6 m s 1 are shaded in increments of 2 m s 1. (b) Hub height CF. CFs > 0.5 are shaded in increments of 0.1. Dashed line marks location of Altamont Pass western ridgeline crest.

39 Wind Power and Climate Change

40 Wind Power and Climate Change

41 Wind Power and Climate Change Wind is caused by differential heating Global warming not only increases temperature of the globe, but also reduces northsouth differential heating This causes a decrease in wind and available wind power with time Wind turbines across the globe will be less effficient less wind power If we reduce anthropogenic sources of global warming, wind power capture remains effective. If we wait too long, future wind turbine installation will be in vain.

42 Wind Power and Climate Change

43 Wind Power and Climate Change Wind turbines convert kinetic energy from wind to electrical energy Deficit of kinetic energy (wind) is created downstream of a wind turbine Less wind = less evaporative cooling With less evaporative cooling, temperatures increase 1 o C Skeptics: Wind turbines increase global warming Climatologists: It only affects very local air temperatures Kinetic energy deficit does not persist far downwind The local temperature increases are far overshadowed by temperatures increases caused by climate change Using wind power instead of green house gas emitting energy sources will not result in any further global warming Helps combat global warming Finding should not be misconstrued as a debate against wind power

44 The Future of Wind Power

45 Questions?

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