What does El Niño mean for South Africa this year and what to expect?
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1 What does El Niño mean for South Africa this year and what to expect? Seminar El Niño 19 November 2015; Johannesburg By Mnikeli Ndabambi General Manager: Operations South African Weather Service Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
2 Introduction El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important and universally dominant mode of climate variability. ENSO may lead to large-scale changes in sea-level pressures, sea-surface temperatures, precipitation and winds across many other regions of the world. Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of September 1997 (El Niño of 1997/98) Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of November 1988 (La Niña of 1988/89) Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
3 Introduction About 50%-60% of the time most part of South Africa receives below-normal rainfall during El Niño (based on historical observed analysis) ENSO has long been known to have impacts on the seasonal-tointerannual rainfall variability of South Africa. For example, during most of the strongest El Niño events (e.g. 1982/83, 1991/92 and 2006/07) drought conditions occurred, while La Niña events caused excessive seasonal flooding (e.g. 1999/2000 and 2010/11). Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
4 El Niño 2015 vs 1997? Courtesy: NOAA These two El Niño episodes are among the strongest in historical record (in the last 50yrs) in their ocean heat content Most drought in SA generally associated with El Niño episodes However, South Africa never experienced drought in 1997/98 as severe as in 2015/16 (i.e., not all droughts or Floods necessary explained by ENSO) Other modes of climate variability may also explain SA climate system such as the Southern Annular mode (SAM), India Ocean Dipole (IOD) which tend to reinforce or counteract the impact of El Niño on South Africa Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
5 El-Niño 2015 vs 1997? However, in 1997/98 ocean-wide cooling while in 2015/16 ocean-wide warming over the Indian Ocean Warming of the ocean enhance convection rainfall over the ocean and subsidence over the sub-continent Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
6 Seasonal outlook 2015/16 Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
7 Climate Watch Advisory
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9 1900/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2015 Rainfall Anomaly (mm) 500 Mean seasonal rainfall anomaly (mm) for the Free State (Jul Jun 2015) [Drought years (<80% of normal) are indicated in orange]
10 1900/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2015 Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Mean seasonal rainfall anomaly (mm) for North West (Jul Jun 2015) [Drought years (<80% of normal) are indicated in orange]
11 1903/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2014 Rainfall Anomaly (mm) 800 Mean seasonal rainfall anomaly (mm) for the Limpopo Province (Jul Jun 2014) [Drought years (<80% of normal) are indicated in orange]
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17 What to Expect in South Africa and Southern Africa Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
18 Ruacana-Namibia
19 Victoria falls-zimbabwe
20 What to Expect in South Africa Below normal rainfall is predicted. o Above normal temperatures predicted Most Severe drought, which is already being experienced is during this El Nino Episode of 2015 Possible Socio Economic impacts Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
21 Direct drought induced socio-economic losses include the following: Reduced crop, ranch land, and forest productivity, Increased fire hazards, Reduced dam water levels and therefore water shortages (water rationing/ cuts) Increased livestock, wildlife and fishery mortality rates, Power challenges in heavy industry sector, Increased insect infestations and plant diseases, Decline in agricultural yield and agro-dependent industries, Increased unemployment in the agricultural sector and all drought- affected industries, Strain on financial institutions (capital shortfalls, credit risks, lesser agricultural sector loans and repayment challenges), Loss of revenue to the state and local governments (from reduced tax base), Increase in basic commodity and food prices Lowered living standards especially for subsistence farming communities Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
22 Who is most likely to suffer the most? Drought effects will be felt by: - Municipalities, Business Community, Agricultural enterprises, - Households and Individuals, - Government (at National, Regional and Local level). - Everyone (you and me) In South Africa, worst affected regions are: - KwaZulu-Natal, the Free State, Limpopo, North West and the Northern Cape, where farmers growing white and yellow maize, soya beans and sunflower have already incurred major losses. We have already observed impacted livestock farming. A report released by the UN s food and nutrition working group in September month found this drought the country s worst since 1992 had caused a decline in maize production that had already led to an increase in food prices of 6.4%. Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
23 Concluding Remarks El Niño 2015 and 1997 are strikingly similar The atmospheric response difference (2015 being most severe drought) in Southern Africa may be more explained by differences over the Indian Ocean. Prediction of the 2015 El Niño impact on our region is so far successful and is noted quite ahead of time (since August 2015). Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
24 Thank you! Doc Ref no: SAWS-RES-El-Nino-Seminar
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