Most See Toughest Work Still Ahead; After bin Laden, Saddam Hussein

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: THE WAR 12/19/01 EMBARGO: 6:30 P.M. BROADCAST, 8 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Thursday, Dec. 20, 2001 Most See Toughest Work Still Ahead; After bin Laden, Saddam Hussein Despite the collapse of Taliban and Al Qaeda forces, most Americans believe the toughest work in the war on terrorism is yet to come. And most set a high standard for success: Not only Osama bin Laden s capture, but the toppling of Iraq s Saddam Hussein. Sixty-four percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say the United States must capture or kill the elusive bin Laden for the war on terrorism to be a success. They divide more or less evenly on whether killing or capturing him is preferable. But it doesn t end there: Sixty-one percent also say the war won t be a success unless the United States ousts Saddam Hussein, long a bugaboo in U.S. public opinion. More, 72 percent, support U.S. military action against Iraq to achieve that aim. And three-quarters support striking suspected terrorist bases in Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. The desire to oust Hussein reflects his longstanding, deep unpopularity in this country, dating at least to the Persian Gulf War. In a 1998 Gallup poll 96 percent of Americans expressed an unfavorable opinion of the Iraqi leader; that s been surpassed only by bin Laden, at 97 percent unfavorable last month. 70% 60% 64% For the War on Terrorism to Succeed: ABC News/Washington Post poll 61% 50% 40% 30% 34% Yes No 33% 20% 10% 0% Must bin Laden be caught? Must Saddam be ousted?

2 For war on terrorism to succeed: Yes No Must bin Laden be caught? 64% 34 Must Saddam Hussein be ousted? AIN T OVER Partly for these reasons, vast majorities believe the hardest part of U.S. efforts remains ahead. Even in Afghanistan, 80 percent say the most difficult part of U.S. military efforts is yet to come. In terms of the broader campaign against terrorism, this rises to 88 percent. On the search for bin Laden, most Americans are cautiously optimistic: 70 percent think the United States ultimately will capture or kill him. But that s down from 81 percent back on Sept. 27, before the Afghanistan campaign began. And just 32 percent are very confident the United States will get bin Laden, despite the recent assurances of George W. Bush and other administration officials. BUSH Bush s ratings continue to defy gravity: His job approval rating is an extraordinary 86 percent, a level it s maintained steadily since Sept. 11. As many approve of his handling of the war on terrorism. In an apparent halo effect, 67 percent even approve of his handling of the economy, despite the recession. Bush has averaged a 72-percent job approval rating in his first year in office, putting him in the top rank alongside his father, John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. The war on terrorism is the reason: Bush s average approval rating pre-sept. 11 was just 58 percent, but since Sept. 11 it s averaged 89 percent. CIVIL RIGHTS Most also continue to back the administration s anti-terrorism efforts at home, rejecting suggestions that civil rights are being inadequately safeguarded. Three-quarters say the government is doing enough to protect the rights of average Americans, and two-thirds say it s adequately protecting Arab-Americans and American Muslims. (These are down slightly, though, since late November.) In an example of the way public opinion has rallied to the federal government s side, this poll finds a 16-point drop in belief that government activities in general pose a threat to your constitutional rights. Thirty-nine percent feel that this is the case, down from 55 percent in a 1995 poll. And fewer, 21 percent, see a serious threat. *LA Times Does the federal gov t threaten your rights? Yes Net Seriously Not seriously No % * 55 na na 42

3 Indeed if anything there seems room for the government to be more aggressive, not less so. Fifty-nine percent of Americans say the government is doing all it reasonably can to try to prevent further attacks, but that s down from a peak of 71 percent in early October. Suspicion of government activities as a threat to constitutional rights is higher among nonwhites, Democrats and liberals. However, majorities in all three groups also say the government is doing enough to protect the rights of average Americans. 70% Do the Activities of the Gov't Threaten Your Rights? ABC News/Washington Post and LA Times polls 60% 55% 59% 50% 40% 42% Yes No 39% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 Today ARABS This poll also finds a decline in suspicion of people of Arab descent. Right after the Sept. 11 attacks, 43 percent of Americans said they d be more suspicious of people who appeared to be of Arab descent. In mid-october it was 38 percent, and now it s 31 percent. More suspicious of Arabs 12/19 31% 10/9 38 9/13 43 ANOTHER ATTACK While most Americans remain worried about the chance of further terrorist attacks, that concern has dropped by more than 15 points since its Sept. 11 peak, and high-level concern people who are very worried is down even further. Seventy percent now say they re worried about more major attacks, down from a peak of 87 percent on Sept. 11. And 27 percent are very worried, down from 49 percent.

4 100% 90% Concern There Will Be More Terrorist Attacks ABC News/Washington Post polls 87% 80% 70% 60% 77% Concerned Concerned "Great deal" 70% 50% 49% 40% 35% 30% 27% 20% 10% 0% 9/11/01 10/15/01 12/19/01 CONGRESS Boosted by approval of his handling of the war, Bush enjoys the upper hand in public opinion vis-à-vis the Democrats in Congress. Fifty-four percent say the country should go in the direction Bush wants to lead, compared to 28 percent who prefer the Democrats direction. It was an even split, by contrast, just before Sept. 11. It s not clear, though, how the debate over economic stimulus will play out in public opinion. Customarily absent war all political figures lose support in difficult economic times, but especially the president, as with Bush s father after the Gulf War. At the same time, the economy is the chief concern Americans cite for Congress to handle (the war on terrorism apparently being seen more as an administration job). And majorities identify three areas in which Congress is not doing enough: health care, the economy and education (that last despite passage of the education bill). Congress has a 59 percent approval rating, compared to 45 percent in a Sept. 9 ABC/Post poll. That s its all-time high in decades of opinion polling. GROUPS Bush s broad approval rating does not signal the death of partisanship; it still shows up in strong approval. While 87 percent of Republicans approve strongly of Bush s work in office, that dives to 39 percent of Democrats. And his strong approval is 33 points higher among conservatives than among liberals, 25 points higher among whites than among nonwhites and 13 points higher among men than among women.

5 There s also a big difference between the parties in Bush s approval on handling the economy: 90 percent among Republicans, 44 percent among Democrats. There are no such differences on whether the United States needs to get bin Laden for the war on terrorism to succeed; like-sized majorities across these groups say yes. Nonwhites, Democrats and liberals are less apt, though, to prefer he be killed than captured. METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec among a random national sample of 755 adults. The results have a 3.5-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: Media contact: Todd Polkes, (212) Here are the full results (*=less than 0.5 percent) 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 12/19/ /27/ /6/ /9/ /27/ /13/ /9/ /12/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling the nation s economy? Approve Disapprove No opinion 12/19/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/ Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is doing its job? Approve Disapprove No opinion

6 12/19/ /9/ /30/ /22/ /31/ /2/ /6/ /14/ /14/ /20/ /19/ /13/ Call for full trend. 4. Do you think the country should go in the direction (Bush wants to lead it), go in the direction (the Democrats in Congress want to lead it), or what? Other Neither No dif. No Bush Democrats (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) opin. 12/19/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ What would you say is the one most important problem you would like to see Congress deal with next year? Economy/Unemployment 34 Terrorism/Fear of war/homeland security 13 No opinion 9 Education 8 Health care/prescription drug benefits 8 Social Security/Medicare 6 Other 6 Taxes 5 Poverty/Homelessness/Hunger 3 Environmental issues 2 Morality/Family decline 2 Foreign policy/immigration reform 2 Government/military spending/national debt 1 War on drugs 1 6. Based on what you know or have heard, do you think Congress has paid too much, too little, or about the right amount of attention to (INSERT ITEM). How about (NEXT ITEM)? 12/19/01 Too Too About the No much little right amount opin. a. Terrorist threats in this country b. The war in Afghanistan c. The economy d. Education e. Health care Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the U.S. campaign against terrorism? Do you approve/disapprove STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin.

7 12/19/ /15/ In terms of U.S. military action in Afghanistan, do you think the most difficult part is (over), or do you think the most difficult part is (yet to come)? Over Yet to come No opin. 12/19/ How about in terms of the broader U.S. war on terrorism - do you think the most difficult part is (over), or do you think the most difficult part is (yet to come)? Over Yet to come No opin. 12/19/ How confident are you that the United States will capture or kill Osama Bin Laden: are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident? Confident Not confident No NET Very Somewhat NET Not too At all opin. 12/19/ /6/ /27/ Do you think (the United States has to capture or kill Osama bin Laden for the war on terrorism to be a success), or do you think (the war on terrorism can be a success without Osama bin Laden being killed or captured)? US must capture/ War can succeed No kill bin Laden without bin Laden opin. 12/19/ /6/ Which would you personally prefer - having bin Laden (killed), or (captured)? Killed Captured Neither (vol) No opin. 12/19/ Would you favor or oppose: a. having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power? Favor Oppose No opin. 12/19/ /27/ /11/94* /15/93** /21/92 RV /9/ /22/ /5/ /15/ *10/11/94 and previous: Gallup **1/15/93 and previous: Would you support or oppose having U.S. forces resume military action...?

8 b. U.S. military strikes against suspected terrorist bases in other countries, such as Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen? Favor Oppose No opin. 12/19/ Do you think (the United States has to remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power for the war on terrorism to be a success), or do you think (the war on terrorism can be a success without removing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power)? Must remove Can succeed No Hussein w/o removing opin. 12/19/ On another subject, these days do you think the activities of the federal government pose a threat to your constitutional rights, or not? Is that as serious threat, or not serious? Threat No NET Serious Not serious No opin. 12/19/ /30/95* 55 NA NA 42 3 *LA Times Poll 16. How concerned are you about the possibility there will be more major terrorist attacks in the United States - is that something that worries you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all? Concerned Not concerned---- No NET Grt.deal Somewhat NET Not much None op. 12/19/ /15/ /9/ * 10/7/ /27/01* * 9/11/ /13/ * 6/2/ * 8/5/ * 4/20/ /27/01 and previous: "How concerned are you about the possibility there will be more major terrorist attacks in this country " 17. Do you think the United States is doing all it reasonably can do to try to prevent further terrorist attacks, or do you think it should do more? US doing US should No all it can do more opin. 12/19/ /27/ /6/ /15/ /9/ As it conducts the war on terrorism, do you think the United States government is doing enough to protect the rights of (READ ITEM), or not? How about the rights of (NEXT ITEM)? 12/19/01 Yes No No opin.

9 a. Average Americans b. Arab-Americans and American Muslims Trend: a. Average Americans Yes No No opin. 12/19/ /27/ b. Arab-Americans and American Muslims Yes No No opin. 12/19/ /27/ Have September's terrorist attacks made you personally more suspicious of people who you think are of Arab descent, or not? Yes No No opin. 12/19/ /9/01** /13/01* **"last month's terrorist attacks" * Do you think the attacks this week will make you personally more suspicious 20 to 33 HELD FOR RELEASE. ***END***