The. FP Fantasy KIT. Ultimate Footy Dream Team AFL Fantasy

Transcription

1 The FP Fantasy KIT 2017 Ultimate Footy Dream Team AFL Fantasy

2 Contents Introduction DT Winner Q&A Old Faces, New Places Injury Roundup Draft Strategy Keeper League Strategy Classic Strategy Sleepers & Undervalued Players Busts & Overvalued Players Beyond Draft Class Must Have - Defender Midfielder Ruck Forward Overall Draft Rankings Top 300 Player Profiles - Defenders - Midfielders Rucks Forwards

3 Introduction Welcome to our brand new FP Fantasy Kit 2017! Fantasy draft leagues have long been a major part of what we do at Footy Prophet but you will have noticed recently that we are increasing our coverage of other fantasy football formats. We continue that trend in our new FP Fantasy Kit which includes a brilliant four page strategy article for Dream Team and AFL Fantasy. We ve once again used the innovative statistical projection model, value-based drafting (VBD) to compare and rank each player. Not only have we used VBD to rank players within their position, we ve also utilised it to provide you with overall rankings for the top 300 players. So no matter what selection you have in your draft, you ll always know who to pick. They say knowledge is power and this rings true when it comes to fantasy drafts. That s why the team at Footy Prophet have provided detailed and positionally-ranked profiles of 285 players heading into the 2017 season. All of your favourite features return in 2017 as well as a few new ones. We ve taken a thorough look at draft sleepers, draft busts, beyond the 18th round targets and the 2016 draft class. We have three strategy pieces covering fantasy drafts, keeper leagues and classic fantasy. Perhaps best of all, however, is Matt McGrath s exclusive interview with the 2016 Dream Team winner, Anthony! There s a few nuggets of strategy gold in there so keep reading. It is important to acknowledge that this draft kit is a collaborative achievement of all those who have contributed to its production. In particular, this resource is only possible because of the hard work and dedication of the entire Footy Prophet team. Remember to check out our website at year round for all the latest AFL & AFLW news, opinions plus a raft of fantasy advice for both draft and classic formats. We hope you enjoy our new look FP Fantasy Kit! The 2017 FP Fantasy Kit Team Project Managers - Sarah Lucken & Jack O Neill Editors - Jamie Radford, Damien Peck & Damon Adams Contributing Writers Damon Adams Dan Batten David Cardamone Matthew Donald Elliott Hoffman Matthew James Sam Kimber Ben Maughan Clint Mills Matt McGrath Alex Mulholland Nic Negrepontis Costa Nomikoudis Dem Panopoulos Jamie Radford Anthony Wingard Special Thanks - Anthony - Coach of Cobra Kai FC want to ask us a question? Follow Footy Prophet on Facebook & twitter 3

4 A Year Out of the Box Cobra Kai FC - Dream Team s 2016 Winner The past 12 months of football was nothing short of incredible, which translated to an equally outstanding season of both Real Dream Team and AFL Fantasy. Patience, determination and luck were all qualities embodied by Anthony, Coach of Cobra Kai FC, who enjoyed a fantasy season to remember. Finishing an impressive sixth in AFL Fantasy, Anthony s Cobras went even better in RDT, standing atop all others at the close of 2016, and scoring himself $20,000 of cold hard cash in the process. What was your overall starting strategy for 2016? Go hard early. It is far harder to chase down the leaders when teams start looking the same later in the season. Back in a few undervalued players around the $450,000 to $500,000 mark who you think can become keepers. Who were the players that stood out in the pre-season for you, and did those selections pay off? Max Gawn and Zach Merrett. What were your best, unique pick/s of 2016 that made your team stand out? Although I didn t finish with all these guys, they helped massively from the beginning - Zach Merrett, Jasper Pittard, Ollie Wines, Jack Viney. I was able to nail the rookie picks too. On the subject of trading, how did you negotiate the balance of using your trades during the season? I went strong early with the trades. Fixing problems is critical. No point carrying dead weight. From weeks 3-8 I did two trades a week. It did mean I was down to 1 trade for the last 5 rounds, but I was well out in front by then. At what point did you realise you were a real chance to take out the overall prize, and what was the feeling like? I was fifth by Round 6. And never lower than third for the rest of the season. I stayed first for the last six rounds. It was pretty surreal, I had never been close before. I lived overseas for many years, so couldn t follow things as closely as I would have liked. Watching more games helped a lot. With Real Dream Team just recently opened, how s your team shaping up in the early stages? All speculation at this stage, but I m actually quite comfortable with my team structure as it is now. Are you willing to give away your point of difference player/s for 2017? I m willing to back in Hamish Hartlett and Chad Wingard from Port to have big seasons. I also think Callum Mills can avoid the second year blues. So there you have it, an aggressive approach, and nailing those few big risers right out of the gates were the catalysts for Anthony s dominant fantasy season. We d like to thank him for sharing some of the secrets of how he did so. Will you heed his words and follow this path in 2017? 4

5 Old Faces, New Places PLAYER FROM TO ANALYSIS Jarryd Lyons Adelaide Gold Coast A change of scenery could lead to increased scores. Pearce Hanley Brisbane Gold Coast More midfield time could be on the cards which is a positive. Zach Tuohy Carlton Geelong Better options around at this stage. Jack Frost Collingwood Brisbane Awkward price-tag better suited players around. Jarrod Witts Collingwood Gold Coast Could be an R3 for your SuperCoach side. Will get first chance. Marley Williams Collingwood Nth Melbourne Plenty of opportunities at North Melbourne for him. Michael Hibberd Essendon Melbourne Worth consideration at his price, given his potential output. Michael Barlow Fremantle Gold Coast Needs consistency but will do a job for his price, draft sleeper. Chris Mayne Fremantle Collingwood Interesting POD at his new club, but little upside. Josh Caddy Geelong Richmond Risky given his price but should get plenty of midfield minutes Jaeger O Meara Gold Coast Hawthorn Won t play Rd 1 but on his return demands a midfield position. Dion Prestia Gold Coast Richmond Can only get better with age, worth considering. Jack Steele GWS St Kilda Will play more games, which should lead to more continuity. Brad Hill Hawthorn Fremantle Uptick in scoring, but not enough to warrant immediate selection. Jordan Lewis Hawthorn Melbourne Watch JLT Series closely. Can perform but pricey. Sam Mitchell Hawthorn West Coast Age the concern but still expected to perform & score well. Brett Deledio Richmond GWS Pre-season calf injury. Sleeper in draft formats. Tom Mitchell Sydney Hawthorn Ball magnet in a midfield lacking star power. Nathan Hrovat Bulldogs Nth Melbourne Strong pre-season, will play. Mid-pricer worth considering. Koby Stevens Bulldogs St Kilda Established player, big body. Needs to secure his position. Daniel Wells Nth Melbourne Collingwood Priced high and an interrupted pre-season. Ricky Henderson Adelaide Hawthorn Tough backline to break into. Better options out there. Jarrod Pickett GWS Carlton Yet to play, so will be a cash cow if he gets named Round 1 Will Hoskin-Elliott GWS Collingwood Expected to fit into Pies 22. Athletic forward. Cheap & a smokey. Tyrone Vickery Richmond Hawthorn Roughead returning, will fight for his position. Rucking a bonus. Toby Nankervis Sydney Richmond Battling Hampson for first opportunity but behind 8-ball currently. Nathan Vardy Geelong West Coast Unlikely to play with Lycett and Giles both ahead of him. Avoid. 5

6 player club INJURY Return Injury Roundup player club INJURY Return Brad Crouch AD Hamstring Early Season Scott Thompson AD Shoulder Early Season Dayne Beams BR Knee TBC Jarrod Berry BR Knee Late JLT Sam Skinner BR Knee Mid Season Alex Withereden BR Leg Indefinite Ciaran Byrne CA Knee Indefinite Patrick Cripps CA Back Early Season Andrew Gallucci CA Shoulder Mid Season Andrew Phillips CA Foot Early Season Tom Langdon COL Back TBC Callum Brown COL Illness TBC Sam McLarty COL Shoulder Early Season Brayden Sier COL Back Early Season Tom Bellchambers ESS Knee Early Season Cale Hooker ESS Hamstring Late JLT Michael Hurley ESS Ankle Early JLT Alex Morgan ESS Ankle Late JLT Harley Bennell FRE Calf Early Season Zac Clarke FRE Knee Early Season Alex Pearce FRE Leg Indefinite Aaron Sandilands FRE Calf Late JLT Josh Cowan GEE Hamstring Early Season Cory Gregson GEE Foot Mid Season Esava Ratugolea GEE Calf/Achilles Late JLT Gary Ablett GCS Shoulder Late JLT Jarrod Harbrow GCS Ankle Mid Season Michael Rischitelli GCS Knee Mid Season Tom Nicholls GCS Calf Late JLT Shane Mumford GWS Elbow Early Season Brett Deledio GWS Calf Early Season Jon Ceglar HAW Knee Late Season Jaeger O Meara HAW Knee Early Season Dean Kent MEL Back Early Season Dom Tyson MEL Knee Early Season Ben Kennedy MEL Ankle Early Season Paul Ahern NTH Knee 2018 Jed Anderson NTH Shoulder Early Season Ben Brown NTH Knee Late JLT Majak Daw NTH Knee Early JLT Taylor Garner NTH Hip Early Season Todd Goldstein NTH Ankle Early JLT Ben Jacobs NTH Foot Early JLT Oscar Junker NTH Leg Mid Season Daniel Nielson NTH Quad Early JLT Jy Simpkin NTH Leg Early JLT Sam Wright NTH Ankles Early JLT Dougal Howard PA Knee Mid Season Angus Monfries PA Shoulder Late JLT Jesse Palmer PA Groin Early Season Steve Morris RI Knee Mid Season Dion Prestia RI Knee Early JLT Hugh Goddard STK Achilles June Alex Johnson SYD Hamstring Mid Season Jeremy Laidler SYD Elbow Early Season Luke Parker SYD Knee Late JLT Tom Papley SYD Knee Early Season Callum Sinclair SYD Knee Late JLT Liam Duggan WCE Hamstring Late JLT Jonathon Giles WCE Hand TBC Scott Lycett WCE Knee Early JLT Nic Naitanui WCE Knee 2018 Willie Rioli WCE Hamstring Mid Season Simon Tunbridge WCE Knee June Kieran Collins WB Shoulder/Hip Late JLT Caleb Daniel WB Shoulder Late JLT Josh Prudden WB Knee Early Season Matt Suckling WB Achilles Early Season Jack Redpath WB Knee Mid Season Mitch Wallis WB Leg TBC 6

7 Draft Strategy You know all of the players, you've got a good understanding of the coaches in your league, and you have your draft order set. Now it's time to put all that knowledge to good use and develop a winning draft strategy. SELECT THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE It's important to go into your draft with a fairly fluid draft strategy. This is because you want to be in a position to pick the sliders, or the best player left on the draft board at any particular point in proceedings. Although it's important your team is relatively balanced, don't miss the chance to pick up the best player left on the board for balance alone, as you'll end up regretting it. You also might go into your draft thinking that you want a certain player, but don't feel the need to get them too early. This in itself could ruin the balance of your team and set you off course. No matter how many particular players you want in your side still only select them in an appropriate draft position. WHAT THE DRAFT IS LIKE THIS YEAR What I ve taken from the Footy Prophet way too early mock draft is midfielders run deep with plenty of value in this particular position later in the draft to take advantage of. In the ruck department, Gawn, Grundy and Goldstein are in a tier of their own. Following that, you could probably throw a blanket over five to six others. So if you're in your draft and those first three are taken before your selection, don't feel the need to take another ruckman, as the chances are the comparative value of players that you can take at other positions is much higher. As with most years, defenders are the weakest position in terms of depth. After pick 20 the relative depth at the position gets a bit dicey. I'd advise to try and grab three of the top 20 ranked backs. This will give you a strong base to build your backline around for the rest of the year. In terms of the forward position it's the weakest it has been in several years. A lot of the highest scoring forwards from last year lost their status in We have got a few new forwards such as Jackson Macrae, Isaac Smith and Josh Caddy who are all attractive options. Considering the lack of depth of forward and defenders, I'd suggest to go with a strategy to only take two or three midfielders in your first nine picks. There is just so much value to be had later in the draft in that position, whereas forwards and defenders will dry up after round 10 to 12. 7

8 Draft Strategy PICK 2 OR 9? USE THE NATURAL ADVANTAGE Believe it or not these are my favourite positions to draft as you get the luxury of taking two players relatively quickly. I love these positions because with the help of a handy draft day tip, you can take exactly the two players you want with each selection the vast majority of times, while at the same time making things difficult for whoever is drafting from Picks 1 or 10. EXAMPLE: I have second pick in a standard 10 team snake draft, and the coach with the first selction has taken a MID, DEF and MID with picks one, 20 and 21. We know from this they should be keen on a forward to balance out their team. So in the fourth round at pick 39 if I like both a midfielder and forward, I will take the forward knowing that the midfielder is likely to get back around to me at pick 42 because of the way the coach with pick one has drafted. Using this simple trick can give you a distinct advantage over the coach with the first selection. PREPARE Do your own preparation and research, have your own strategy and stick to it. If you're fully prepared for any outcome on draft day you will put yourself in the best possible position to pick a quality team. 8

9 Keeper Leagues Coming into the 2017 AFL season, fantasy coaches across the country have a plethora of options available to them. Whether it is a salary cap format, draft or any other, all types of leagues provide an outlet for that competitive edge in us all, while also enabling us to fulfil our fantasies of being a coach at the highest level. However, of all the fantasy formats available, keeper leagues are the closest you can get to the real thing, and by far the most enjoyable with continuity and reward. Unlike single season leagues, keepers allow coaches to build a side over a number of years in the hope of assembling a team that will take them to sustained success. And while any fantasy premiership in itself is a reason for celebration and pride, a three or four-peat is an achievement you can reminisce about well into your old age. Rivalries can be formed over a number of years, while weaknesses can be found in opposition coaches and taken advantage of, and of course the opportunity to constantly remind your rivals of your successes for perpetuity. REMEMBER IT S A KEEPER LEAGUE For those who have never taken part in this particular format of fantasy footy, the most important aspect for coaches new to keeper leagues to take into account is that it is exactly that a keeper league. Going into your inaugural season, a first up premiership while nice, is not the be all and end all. There is plenty of time to build a successful side, and therefore more drafting strategies open to coaches in your leagues initial and most important draft. Unlike you automatically would in a single season league, don t look at a player ruled out for the season as excess baggage, but instead as a new recruit for the following year. Dumping a Nat Fyfe onto waivers a month into the season because of a broken leg will only come back to haunt you later on down the track. PREPARING FOR YOUR FIRST DRAFT Although your league will have a draft of some kind each season, the first is by far the most important, as it will give you the core group of players you are likely to have for the next few seasons. This is where coaches need to decide on the timing of their side s premiership window. Do you go flat out for your league s inaugural title, or bide your time in the hope you can create a dynasty in coming seasons? Many coaches will choose the former and select their squads in a very similar, if not identical way they would in a single season draft. Taking the best available player (in their opinion), dependent upon field position, regardless of age. However, age is a major factor coaches new to keeper leagues also need to wrap their heads around. While drafting a Gary Ablett Jr, Leigh Montagna or Matthew Boyd in 2017 may assist in winning that admittedly valuable first-up premiership, when these players retire from football, they also retire from your fantasy side leaving you with the reality of no compensation in return. 9

10 Keeper League Strategy Other coaches are not going to be interested in trading in any player who more than likely won t be running around the following season. So while one or two veterans in your side can be extremely productive in your first year, any more could very well leave your squad with gaping holes in the next. Those holes will be hard to fill. As although every AFL player will be available in your league s initial draft, in the second season and beyond, the player pool will be far smaller. In a 10-team league with 20 keepers, 200 of the best fantasy talent will be unavailable in each and every future draft. As such, where players are taken in keeper drafts can be far different to that of single leagues, or from where they are actually ranked. In 2017 six of the highest ranked defenders are more than 30-years-old, with Carlton s Sam Docherty the exception at 23-years-old and ranked fifth. While in single season leagues the top defenders will be taken fairly closely to their ranking, in the majority of first-year keeper leagues, Docherty, Rory Laird (23/8th) and Jason Johannisen (24/9th) are likely to be the first three defenders taken or at least should be. Whichever way as a coach you choose to go in your league s first draft, whether it be for long or short-term goals, those unwanted future holes can be easily avoided by creating in your initial draft, then always maintaining a balanced squad in terms of both player positions and age. TRADING AND WAIVERS Perhaps the two most notable differences when it comes to trading players in keeper leagues compared to single season competitions is familiarity with your fellow coaches, as well as the opportunity to pick up a quality player who is injured at a vital time. As you will know more about the personal foibles and weaknesses of your opposition coaches as the seasons roll on, you may find yourself in a position to take advantage of them someday. However, also keep in mind the same applies to you. Being an ongoing league, if you are out of contention with a few rounds to go don t completely give up on your season, as an opportunity may be just waiting to present itself. If any of those teams still vying for a premiership lose one of their guns to injury, it is the perfect situation in which to offer that sides coach far less for that player than he is actually worth. There is not a lot of difference in how waivers is used in keeper leagues, although first and second year players who have impressed during the season are often picked up at its conclusion before waivers is closed for the year. 10

11 Keeper League Strategy SOCIAL ASPECT AND OFF SEASON While many single-year league seasons can be sociable, with pages or chat rooms set up for the year, by their very nature, keeper leagues tend to be even more so. Up against the same opposition year in year out relationships and rivalries are formed that often even transcend the league. And of course leagues established by groups of friends allows those friends to remain in touch and maintain a commonality no matter where their future lies in terms of living or work. Finally, perhaps the most attractive aspect of keeper leagues at least for those of us who are fantasy fanatics the off-season can still provide us with a bit of a fix. Trading can continue, and even drafts can take place if coaches are prepared to do so off-site and away from their chosen brand of keeper fantasy footy. And of course the banter can always continue. If you ve been playing a draft style form of fantasy for the past few seasons, or even just the one and enjoyed the experience, there s been no better time to test yourself as a coach in what is the closest fantasy format to the real thing. Get a bunch of friends together to create your own league with your own rules, or join one of the many that are now (or will be) available on the various fantasy sites in the coming weeks. Good luck with your first foray into keeper leagues in

12 Starting Structure: Which Is Best? Classic Strategy The structure you adopt with your starting side is one of the most important decisions you will make in your fantasy season. Choose right and you ll have an excellent platform from which to set up your year. Choose wrong and you ll be playing catch up from the get go - virtually ruling yourself out of the running for overall ranking as early as Rounds 2/3. So to help give you a bit more context, I ve taken a quick look at the two prevailing and most commonly-used starting strategies when it comes to salary-based fantasy football - Mid-pricers and Guns n Rookies. Prices throughout the article will be displayed as: (Real Dream Team Price / AFL Fantasy Price) THE CASE FOR: MID-PRICE STRATEGY More balance. It can often make you nervous looking at your starting side seeing a jump of more than $300K from your fourth player to your fifth. Slotting in a known player who has real potential and is priced somewhere in the middle of the field can often add a real element of balance to your side. Bear in mind though you ll need to be happy with not only your players, but the structure of your entire team. A mid-priced player is a good way to spread the starting salary among your side, and often looks great to start with. More potential to get bargains and thus save money on keepers has given us an ever-growing number of bargains, including several banned Bombers such as Jobe Watson ($474,200/$477,000) and Michael Hibberd (now at the Demons - $424,800/$428,000). Another is newly appointed Hawthorn captain and redemption story Jarryd Roughead ($366,200/$373,000). All three of these players appear likely to return to their past premium status (or near enough) and are a fraction of the cost of those who performed well in Cash generation and higher point-scoring early. Assuming you select the right players, this strategy can pay off - especially early. While most teams will be forced to play rookies who may struggle to score 70 points a game, your mid-pricers could be scoring you 85+ consistently, whilst rising in price and allowing you to upgrade them at the right time. For example, playing Jarryd Roughead over, say Jarrod Pickett in the forward line, could net you an extra 30 points a game, which could be crucial to your overall ranking aspirations early. 12

13 Starting Structure: Which Is Best? Classic Strategy Less reliance of on-field rookies. While there will always be the Andrew McGrath ($219,800/$250,000) types who are likely to come in and average 75+ from day one, there are seldom more than a select few reliable rookies to start with each season. Having to play more than two in each line could give you real headaches early on, as you could be forced you to use trades simply based on which kid gets a run in any given week. As mid-pricers are usually guys who will play each week in a reasonably decent scoring role (if you ve done your research), this will offset that rookie reliance early in the piece. Risk/Reward and pay off when unique, awkwardly-priced player performs. If you had started with Seb Ross in 2016 (priced at average of 70.8), then you would have been patting yourself on the back as he went on to average 98.4 for the year - netting yourself a unique, mid-priced (eventual) premium for a bargain price. It takes a lot of belief, but there are ample examples of big payoffs that can set up your season early. IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER Mid-priced players have to exceed expectations to pay off. The chances of one or two hyped risky players paying off is reasonably high. So when you have a team that has four to five (or more) of these guys in the lineup, you re really hedging your bets. In order to be a true success, your mid-pricer should be putting up premiumesque numbers and consolidating himself as a season-long keeper. Getting these right is very difficult, so takes an even greater element of foresight and luck. EXAMPLE (AFL FANTASY) - WHICH WOULD YOU CHOOSE? Option 1 (GnR) Luke Parker ($663K) + Will Brodie ($234K) = $897K for approx. 175 points per game Option 2 (Mid-price) Jobe Watson ($477K) + Blake Acres ($431K) = $904K for approx. 180 points per game 13

14 Starting Structure: Which Is Best? Classic Strategy THE CASE FOR: GUNS N ROOKIES Tried and tested model of most winners. It s well known that the GnR method of starting structures is the most popular for good reason. Sure, it means you ll often overlook some juicy mid-priced players, however it does offer the path of least risk in the process. Starting with more of the best from day one with less risk of burning trades. If you start with 3-4 true premium players in each position (1-2 in the ruck) then you re giving yourself a solid, consistent platform from day one - up to 14 players whom you can rely on (barring injury) for the whole season. No trades and low risk. This does require you to pick carefully however and back your chosen topliners in for the whole campaign. In avoiding high-risk, unproven, not-quite premium players, you can use your trades to focus on fixing any early rookie mistakes then sit and wait for them to increase in value. Highest scope for cash generation, Starting with so many players at the lower price-bracket leads to an easier path for upgrades - giving us a team full of premiums earlier and with less hassle. Plus, the best money-makers are almost always rookie-priced, with the likes of Josh Smith ($+325.6K), Josh Dunkley ($+318.9K) and Daniel Wells ($+254.4K) the top earners of No risk of mid-price busts taking up trades at crucial upgrading time. Statistically, your mid-price players have less than 50% chance (generous) of paying off and remaining in your side past the mid-season point. As long as you re okay with leaving out some of the hyped preseason players, you should use less fix-up trades when at least a few of these calls don t come off. Even two or three extra trades saved in the opening six weeks (Dream Team) could have a huge difference come the run home when most coaches are flush out of trades in the bank. IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER Is my team really only Guns n Rookies? Maintaining a true GnR structure is difficult given almost every team will still have at least 1 player who is priced below traditional premiums in that position. But I would still consider a team with 1 or 2 non-traditional mid-pricers a GnR structure e.g. you might start with Marc Murphy (former-premium but injury-affected) who doesn t really count as a mid-pricer despite appearing so in price alone. 14

15 Starting Structure: Which Is Best? Classic Strategy FINAL WORD Ultimately, you ll have to choose which team structure you feel most comfortable with. It may even be a combination of both models, with just two or three mid-price players then sticking to the traditional method everywhere else. For mine, it s more about picking the right rookies early. That involves nailing one or two reliable under-priced players if there are any (Roughead, Heppell etc), and fitting is as many reliable premiums as you can who you believe will be in the top rung of their position come seasons end. My advice? Do your research, don t be afraid to go against the grain, but more importantly make a plan and back yourself. Below is my current RDT team, and as can be seen is mainly GnR with a few calculated mid-priced forwards thrown in. GOOD LUCK! 15

16 Sleepers & Undervalued Players Sleepers A player referred to as a sleeper isn t necessarily the hottest breakout candidate on the radar, but rather a player who will go later in the draft that could turn out to be a steal! oleg markov DEF 2016 Avg: Games: 8 The second year running defender should be able to build on an impressive first season for the Tigers. Markov was given a regular starting spot in the second half of 2016 and thrived in a role off half back. With tons of natural ability, composure and poise for a kid his age, Richmond should continue to use him in a fantasy friendly half back role. Markov is definitely worth taking a chance on after the 18th round, but could very well be in your starting team during the regular season. rory lobb FWD 2016 Avg: Games: 22 The 211cm Giant was recently quoted as saying that he has set his sights on the number one ruck role at the Giants. While Lobb's natural ability and agility for a big man will hold him in good stead in that position, a healthy Shane Mumford will likely hold down that spot for the foreseeable future. However, the Giants will look to Lobb to rotate through the ruck more frequently in 2017 which should result in a higher fantasy output - particularly with the change in the no third man up rule. mason wood FWD 2016 Avg: Games: 8 Young Kangaroo forward Mason Wood has all the tricks and skill you could wish for in a young footballer. He caught the attention of the footballing world in the first half of the 2016 season with impressive performances and was rewarded with a new contract. Wood averaged 74 fantasy points before succumbing to injury in the second half of the season. With no Petrie and Harvey in the Kangaroos forward line, an opportunity will present itself to Wood to step up, which he very well could do for your fantasy side. will hoskin-elliott FWD 2016 Avg: Games: 2 Collingwood traded in Hoskin-Elliott during the off season from GWS after limited opportunities at senior level, and will slot straight into the Magpies forward line alongside Darcy Moore, Chris Mayne, Alex Fasolo and Jamie Elliott. Hoskin-Elliott has always presented as a difficult match up for opposition defenses due to his leaping marking ability for a small to medium forward, a trait he shares with fellow Magpies forwards Fasolo and Elliott. He has also been a handy fantasy scorer in the past when given opportunity, and has averaged 100 in the NEAFL in recent years. He is definitely worth a punt as a forward line sleeper in your 16

17 Sleepers & Undervalued Players undervalued A player is undervalued when they are going later in the draft than they should be, and if all coaches had access to the right information would be taken higher than where they actually selected. Generally, players are undervalued when they change positions from a forward or back to a pure midfielder. brad ebert MID 2016 Avg: Games: 21 In our recent FP way too early mock draft Ebert was taken at pick 157. This is way too late for a player that averaged over 100 points per game as little as two seasons ago. Ebert will have the added advantage of having Paddy Ryder palming the ball down to him again this year, which he appeared to sorely miss last season. The last season the two played together in 2015 Ebert averaged 102 points per game, yet during Ryder s absence last year his average fell to a very disappointing 84. trent cotchin MID 2016 Avg: Games: 20 The Tigers captain has never been as popular a selection in fantasy as his ability says he should be. This is due to a number of factors, but the main one being that he's borne the brunt of the tag in the Tigers midfield. However, with Dustin Martin now considered by most as Richmond s best player and the likelihood of him spending more time in the middle of the ground, teams will look to shut him down first. The Tigers also have more depth as well as quality in the midfield this year due to the signing of both Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy during the trade period. These factors will contribute to boost Cotchin s scoring liam shiels MID 2016 Avg: Games: 16 Shiels is a player worth targeting in the 2017 draft. With the absence of Mitchell and Lewis from the Hawks midfield the likes of Shiels and also Isaac Smith will be called upon to step up. A gap in the midfield has emerged, and Shiels should be ready to take the next step in his career and fill the void. Let's not forget it was only in 2015 that Shiels averaged 97 fantasy points. A repeat of that wouldn't be a surprise, but for where he is being drafted would be a bargain. jamie elliott FWD 2016: DNP 2015 Avg: Games: 20 A back injury sidelined Elliott for the entire 2016 season so it's easy to forget the sort of player he is, how good he is to watch, and his ability to rack up fantasy points for your team. Elliott, affectionately known to the Collingwood faithful as Billy, is reportedly tearing up the track in pre-season training and is fit and rearing to go in Elliott has game breaking ability and will form an integral part of the Magpies forward line. Due to injury risk he'll be undervalued, but is worth a punt as your fourth or fifth forward. 17

18 Busts & Overvalued Players Busts levi greenwood FWD/MID 2016 Avg: Games: 21 Greenwood looks a tempting choice considering he has forward status in all fantasy formats. However, it may be best to steer clear from the former Kangaroo this year as his position in Collingwood s best 22 is hardly guaranteed. The Magpies have shown they prefer Crisp to Greenwood in a run with role, and was put in the forward line last year to boost inside 50 tackling pressure which was the worst in the league. However, with the Magpies having traded in Chris Mayne for that specific purpose, it is difficult to see where Greenwood will fit in. Greenwood was dropped to the VFL only once in 2016, however expect him to spend more time in the seconds in this year if Collingwood remain pretty much injury free. nick graham FWD/MID 2016 Avg: Games: 12 Fantasy points in the VFL don't always translate to the same in AFL football. Graham has been highly rated in the fantasy community for a number of years now due to his ability to rack up fantasy points at the lower level, but has struggled for consistency in the AFL and has been in and out of the senior side team as a result. Circumstances haven't changed enough at the Blues to suggest any more opportunities will present themselves to Graham to make him a viable midfield selection in fantasy. kieren jack MID 2016 Avg: Games: 21 The Sydney midfielder is often a reasonably high draft pick due to being one of the Swan s big four midfielders alongside Hannebery, Kennedy and Parker. His contribution to the Swans from a football sense can't be understated, however, his fantasy stats over the last few years can't be ignored. He averaged 100 fantasy points in 2013, 98 in 2014, 94 in 2015 and 92 in They're definitely going backwards, so if you are drafting him hoping for a 100-point or thereabouts average, I think you're going to be disappointed. Particularly with the likes of Heeney and Mills looking for more midfield minutes. 18

19 Overvalued Busts & Overvalued Players jake lloyd DEF/MID 2016 Avg: Games: 22 Dubbed as a potential breakout and high draft pick by many due to his back status, I'm not sold on Lloyd as a selection within the first six rounds of your draft. He played all 22 games last year with an average of 86 with considerable midfield time off a wing. However, with high draft picks Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney both gunning for spots in the Swans midfield and the likes of Kennedy, Hannebery, Parker and Jack filling the existing midfield spots it's hard to see Lloyds midfield time increasing. If anything I see it going backwards and Lloyd reverting to a pure half back role. He's not the worst selection after the sixth of seventh round, however earlier than that might be a stretch. matt suckling DEF 2016 Avg: Games: 15 The Bulldogs defender will be looking forward to a strong year after missing out on the Bulldog s historic run to a premiership in Suckling will be joined by his Captain Bob Murphy, who will also be determined to make a strong comeback from almost an entire season because of his own injury. Suckling s place in the side is not on solid ground however, with the Dogs teeming with defensive options such as Shane Biggs, Jason Johannisen and Robert Murphy playing a similar role. Suckling does have more flexibility and can be used in other areas of the ground, however with the midfield at the Dogs running so deep. it's hard to see where exactly Suckling fits in at the Dogs. For this reason, he is a player worth steering clear of until he can secure a permanent role in the Bulldog s 2017 line up. brayden fiorini MID 2016 Avg: Games: 2 The Gold Coast second year midfielder is highly respected in fantasy circles, largely due to his ball winning ability. Although injured for the majority of the 2016 season, he made his debut in the penultimate game of the season and made an instant impact, averaging 112 fantasy points thanks to an incredible 166 in Round 23. Despite his obvious promise it is important to remember that those games were rather meaningless for the Suns and their opponents, so Fiorini was gifted a chance in the midfield. In 2017, Fiorini will have to earn his spot in the Sun s midfield while in addition, will have to maintain consistency across the full season against strong teams playing for something. A lot of drafters will look at the average and be fooled into selecting him, but just remember, he's only a kid in his second year, so don't make the mistake of overvaluing him. 19

20 Beyond 18 It s often said that it s your last few draft picks that determine whether or not you ll win your league. Beyond the 18th round (depending on your league setup) you should have your starting team ready to go. But when you re picking your bench players, you want to be picking players who have got the potential to see vast improvement in Here s a few guys who could be league winners for you in Nathan Freeman MID 2016 Avg: N/A 2016 Games: N/A Where do you draft a player that hasn t played a single game in his three years in the AFL system and has been riddled with hamstring injuries? To be fair you might not take them at all. Freeman is the sort of player you take when you are in the last round of your draft and every name that was on your planning sheet has been crossed off, and you are just waiting out time until you can reward yourself with a beer. At worst, he hurts himself again and you use him as your spare waiver pick-up spot in your squad. But for a junior who showed the ability to get plenty of the ball, and whose club desperately wants to get some value out of trading for him, he may turn out to be a decent pick up. Cam Ellis-Yolmen FWD/MID 2016 Avg: Games: was a long year in the SANFL for Ellis-Yolman, playing just two games as he was kept out of the Crows side mostly because no one really got injured. A new year sees Scott Thompson slowing down, Brad Crouch visiting the doctor again, and Jarryd Lyons out the door, and these factors may provide Ellis- Yolmen the opportunity he s been waiting for. Playing 11 games in 2015 for an average of 68.8 doesn t sound too impressive, but he showed some ceiling with four 90 plus scores in that period. Available for selection as a forward, he should find himself playing through the centre where the Crows are lacking bigger bodies. If the stars align, CEY could be a handy addition to your fantasy forward line in the latter rounds of the draft. Pearce Hanley MID 2016 Avg: Games: 22 You ve never been able to rely on the Irishman for consistent scoring. Even during his barnstorming 2014 season, his fantasy scores would suffer when the tags were sent his way. The last two seasons have seen Hanley suffer through injury and poor form, and now with his off season move to the Suns, the unknown as to whether he can regain some of that magic will see him slip down the draft board. A fresh start is likely to be good for him, and there s always the added benefit that space on the half back line could bring about the opportunity for a positional change during the year - just don t jump too early on draft day for that reason alone! 20

21 Aaron Sandilands RUC 2016 Avg: Games: 5 Beyond 18 At 34 and increasingly injury prone (after missing most of last year he s just picked up another calf injury), no one is going to take the risk on the 211cm Docker in the first half of the draft. However, for a historically consistent scorer who can collect hit-outs to his heart s content (particularly with the removal of the third man up), he s the man for those people who want to completely ignore the early ruck run and spend their first few rounds investing in other lines. Just make sure you have a backup option that will get games when Sandi inevitably misses games. Jamie MacMillan DEF 2016 Avg: Games: 22 Over the years, there hasn t been a lot of fantasy players at the Kangaroos worth getting excited about, and sometimes that bias against clubs can lead to people overlooking enticing options. Macmillan shouldn t be around after Round 18 in most drafts, but in some he will be. Here s why you should grab him - while his scores have a big standard deviation, his ceiling is improving as his game develops, and his overall average for the year will more than justify his selection. Three of his four 100+ career scores have come from his past five games. As a last defensive starter in your squad, he shouldn t disappoint. Mav Weller FWD 2016 Avg: Games: 22 Let s review the stats. Weller played all 22 games last year. Although he averaged 73.5 for the season, in his last 10 appearances after being moved further up the ground, his average jumped to His average was also given a shot in the arm whenever the Saints won, and with the team on the up, this may bode well for his 2017 form line. Freed up from his role chasing tail, he presents as an attractive option that will likely be available in the latter rounds of your draft. Weller isn t flashy, but slot him into the last forward position and he should get the job done. Tom Cutler DEF 2016 Avg: Games: 15 Tom Cutler was a waiver specialist in many leagues last year, and in some games handsomely rewarded those who took a chance on him. His 28 possession, 13 mark and two goal game in Round 12 against Fremantle gave us a glimpse of his potential. Averaging over his last 10 games of the year, and with Pearce Hanley s departure providing more opportunity, he s a great option if available late. 21

22 Beyond 18 Kyle Langford FWD/MID 2016 Avg: Games: 17 Playing eight games in his debut season in 2015, the suspension of so many experienced players in 2016 was an opportunity to quickly develop his game at senior level. Posting an average of 70.1 from 17 games last year, Langford started to assert himself in a role at half-forward which produced six scores of 80 plus, including his maiden fantasy ton from a three goal effort in Round 23 against Carlton. With ongoing development, he could be a great out-of-the-box pick in the final rounds. The problem is, the Bombers lineup in 2017 is incredibly difficult to judge. Watch the pre-season closely and if his role looks set, he s worth your consideration. LiN Jong FWD/MID 2016 Avg: Games: 75.9 Poor Lin Jong. That vision of him watching from the sidelines as the Bulldogs won their way to the 2016 premiership as he nursed his shoulder, was one of the sadder sights of the 2016 season. Previously regarded as a fringe player, he featured in every home and away match after the bye, averaging 83.3 from 10 games. With Stevens and Hrovat leaving, some may consider that his place will be solidified, but Wallis return needs to also be considered. He can be played as a forward, which lowers the expectation on his output. If you think he will get consistent games in 2017, consider taking the plunge. Jack Redden MID 2016 Avg: Games: 15 Jack Redden did not endear himself to many people in Anyone who invested in a draft format copped a 32-point drop from his 2015 average of 97. His woeful form will be in the forefront of many coaches minds on draft day, but what must be remembered is that in his eight year career he s averaged over 103 in three of those seasons and over 94 in five. Sam Mitchell arriving at the club perhaps doesn t help his job security, but after a reportedly very strong pre-season if he looks to be getting inside mid time during the Eagle s JLT games, there s many worse players you could take a punt on. 22

23 2016 Draft Class - Fantasy Rankings The 2016 AFL Draft is a distant memory for most AFL fans, and with preseason rolling toward another league campaign, it s time for fantasy coaches to dust off the cobwebs and too, prepare for the season ahead. Those in dynasty and keeper Ultimate Footy leagues have already kept tabs on a handful of players throughout the season, and with their new homes now known, a clearer picture has been painted. Below are the latest rookie rankings for the 2016 draft class. RANK PLAYER POSITION TEAM TAC AVG U18* AVG STATE AVG 1 Andrew McGrath DEF ESS Jack Bowes MID/FWD GCS Hugh McCluggage MID/FWD BL Tim Taranto MID/FWD GWS Will Setterfield MID GWS Joe Atley MID PA Sam Petrevski-Seton MID CAR Brad Scheer MID GCS Ben Ainsworth FWD GCS Kobe Mutch MID ESS Oliver Florent MID/FWD SYD Jack Graham MID RIC Harry Perryman MID GWS Will Brodie MID GCS Brandon Parfitt MID/FWD GEE Dylan Clarke MID ESS Jack Scrimshaw DEF GCS Jy Simpkin FWD NM Zac Fisher MID CAR Callum Brown MID/FWD COL *U18 National Championship averages are per 120 minutes. 23

24 2016 Draft Class - Fantasy Rankings Andrew McGrath tops the list for many reasons, most of them obvious. It should be expected that he goes number one in keeper leagues and within the first 18 rounds of a standard seasonal draft. The number one pick tag will carry some emphasis throughout the season, but if anything, that ll mean McGrath will play early. Perhaps the most appealing thing about McGrath is his position. Defenders, especially in dynasty leagues, are invaluable, and considering Callum Mills averaged just 60 at NEAFL level before he was drafted, McGrath already has a leg up having fared much better as a junior. Scott Clayton expects all of Gold Coast s draft class to push for selection in Round One, hence Jack Bowes inclusion so high up the list. Having been brought through their academy system, the Suns have already been able to mould Bowes to fit the system. The concern with Bowes is that he may feature as a specialist forward, similar to Ben Keays at Brisbane this year who also had mammoth numbers as a junior. He ll be available as both a forward and midfielder this season, and despite playing mostly as a midfielder in the NEAFL, Bowes did play as a forward at some stages, returning a score of 51 against the Giants which was also inflated with three goals. Like McGrath and Bowes, Hugh McCluggage is likely to see game time frequently in 2017, with Brisbane desperate for outside pace and goal kicking midfielders. Despite having minimal preseason under his belt heading into 2016, McCluggage still averaged around 115 across the TAC Cup and U18 Championships, where he was named among the best in all 12 of his TAC Cup games. Tim Taranto and Will Setterfield produced mammoth numbers as juniors but at GWS, they will likely have to bide their time in the NEAFL with the generous number of talented midfielders, still vying for positions, around them. Both are safe, top five picks in keeper league drafts, however, it may be safe to wait on them in seasonal leagues. The obvious dark horse early on the list is Joe Atley, who landed at Port Adelaide in November s draft. With an average close to 100 across his 13 top tier U18 games in 2016, Atley has shown a capacity to score albeit with perhaps a low ceiling. He is the prototypical fantasy midfielder hard inside, ball-winning midfielder, who averaged 6.5 tackles in the TAC Cup. Sam Petrevski-Seton is definitely one to watch given he s a strong chance to dress up for Carlton early in the season. While not a renowned ball winner, Petreski-Seton has shown a knack for putting up decent scores, including an average of 90.5 for Claremont s Colts side after returning from U18 Championship duties. He hasn t played a senior WAFL game since 2015, as an underage player, where he averaged from three games. While it s unlikely Brad Scheer will go inside the top ten of keeper league drafts, he ll prove to be a steal for those who take him later on. His numbers across his few TAC Cup and U18 Championship games are impressive (note: Championship games include average for Queensland and not Allies), yet his most telling stat is his NEAFL average. Across six games, Scheer averaged and dipped below 70 just once. With a lack of established small goal kickers in their forward line, Ben Ainsworth s arrival at the Gold Coast could prove a masterstroke in the fantasy footy spectrum. While he s smaller than most others on this list, he s one of the few who will likely remain a forward for future seasons, boosting his value above others. The top ten is rounded out by Essendon s Kobe Mutch who as a junior, was an elite ball-winner. He averaged the most points of any draftee in the TAC Cup this season and the most points of any player from Victoria in the U18 Championships. In keeper league s Mutch will slide late having been taken with pick 42 in the AFL draft. 24