NY Wind Overview and 216 Operation Tolu Dina Supervisor, Operations Analysis & Services MIWG October 16, 217, Rensselaer, NY DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
Agenda Overview of NY Wind Wind Curtailment Statistics Analysis of a month with wind curtailments Oct 216 Analysis of negative LBMP drivers for the year 216 Questions 2
Introduction To address market interest in the grid impact of wind as a renewable source of generation To inform the marketplace on wind trends 3
Overview 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 NY Installed Wind Capacity 1,414 1,348 1,274 1,274 1,162 1,634 1,73 1,746 1,754 1,827 MW 1, 8 6 4 2 425 279 48 48 48 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 4
NY wind generation profile GWh 6 5 4 3 2 1 NYCA Wind Plants - Monthly Production Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 455 367 411 443 288 187 235 184 237 362 466 339 215 48 338 434 389 313 216 18 192 186 384 48 395 216 476 432 382 253 234 27 214 21 192 322 366 53 217 412 453 457 392 332 32 185 214 215 216 217 5
NY wind Capacity Factor profile 5% NYCA Wind Generation - Capacity Factor CF 4% 3% 2% 1% % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 36% 32% 32% 36% 23% 15% 18% 14% 19% 28% 38% 26% 215 37% 29% 34% 31% 24% 17% 14% 15% 15% 3% 33% 31% 216 37% 36% 3% 2% 18% 22% 17% 16% 15% 25% 29% 41% 217 32% 39% 34% 3% 25% 25% 14% 214 215 216 217 6
NY wind 216 Capacity Factor distribution 1 9 8 Daily Capacity Factor Distribution for 216 Frequency (days) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% More Capacity Factor 7
NY wind 216 RTD (1min) Forecast variability RTD (1min) Wind Forecast Variability for 216 Frequency (RT Interval Count) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 47,18 46,291 1 2 4 19 18 1,78 1,945 162 18 11 2 1-35 -3-25 -2-15 -1-5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 More Bin Frequency 8
NY wind 216 RTD (1min) Forecast variability 6 RTD (1min) Wind Forecast Variability Metrics MW 4 2 216 232 252 253 28 238 178 25 29 141 131 157 16 17 13 13 12 14 14 13 11 13 14 18-2 -4-168 -196-185 -143-131 -227-218 -151-183 -248-131 -119-6 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Avg Wind Variation ABS Avg Wind Variation Min Wind Variation Max Wind Variation 9
Economic Wind Curtailment GWh 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 NYCA Wind Plants- Annual Production & Economic Curtailments 29 37 22 3974 3915 388 214 215 216 NYCA Wind Generation NYCA Estimated Curtailed Wind Energy 1
NY Wind Economic Curtailment profile Curtailed MWh Thousands 2 15 1 5 NYCA Wind Plants - Monthly Estimated Curtailed Energy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 11,211 5,339 424 1,584 413 734 711 257 487 2,823 2,332 3,132 215 2,41 1,38 745 1,311 5,526 832 77 256 576 14,561 8,176 1,872 216 1,262 658 4,75 1,657 1,919 2,58 162 21 1,51 5,822 93 2,91 217 467 1,657 7,44 8,715 4,946 3,89 56 214 215 216 217 11
NY Wind Economic Curtailment profile % of Monthly Production 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% NYCA Wind Plants - Monthly Estimated Curtailed Energy % % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 2.5% 1.5%.1%.4%.1%.4%.3%.1%.2%.8%.5%.9% 215.4%.4%.2%.3% 1.8%.4%.%.1%.3% 3.8% 2.%.5% 216.3%.2% 1.2%.7%.8%.9%.1%.1%.5% 1.8%.%.4% 217.1%.4% 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.%.3% 214 215 216 217 12
NY Wind Economic Curtailment duration Curtailed Hours NYCA Wind Plants Monthly Curtailed Energy Duration 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 143 87 1 2 12 9 1 6 15 43 29 18 215 32 23 12 27 58 14 3 6 14 122 85 38 216 28 12 92 37 36 32 7 7 26 6 3 33 217 8 2 83 8 64 34 12 214 215 216 217 13
NY Zonal Economic Wind Curtailments Curtailed MWh Thousands 6 5 4 3 2 1 NYCA Zones- Monthly Estimated Curtailed Energy for 216 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WEST 28 31 18 1 24 1 1 12 16 7 2 23 GENESSEE CENTRAL 46 323 3,191 44 319 1,24 142 66 27 111 34 43 NORTH 427 22 1,178 1,52 1,69 1,293 2 14 696 5,576 37 597 MOHAWK VALLEY 41 12 318 92 497 1 1 18 53 118 7 1,22 14
Case Study October 216. 15
Case Study October 216 Thousands 35 3 25 October 216 Daily NY Wind Production and Estimated Economic Curtailment Wind Production Est. Curtailed Wind 2 15 1 5 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 MWh 16
October 216: Daily Zonal Estimated Curtailment 3,5 Daily Estimated Economic Curtailment by Zone 3, 2,5 MWh 2, 1,5 1, 5 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 WEST GENESSEE CENTRAL NORTH MOHAWK VALLEY 17
October 216: Daily Zonal Estimated Curtailment Daily Economic Curtailment duration North Zone Duration (Hours) 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 18
October 216: Daily Zonal Estimated Curtailment Daily Estimated Economic Curtailment by Limiting Constraint 35 3 25 MWh 2 15 1 5 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/1 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/2 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/3 1/31 MOSES SOUTH MARCY 765 MARCY 345 1 DULEY 23 PLATSBRG 23 1 ADIRNDCK 23 MOSES 23 1 PACKARD 23 SAWYER 23 1 PACKARD 23 SAWYER 23 1 CENTRAL EAST - VC ADIRNDCK 23 PORTER 23 1 PLATSBRG 23 RYAN 23 1 19
October 216 Transmission Outages Higher levels of wind curtailment in the North were coincident with scheduled outages of the Chateaugay-Massena 756kV (#74), Massena-Marcy 765kV (#MSU1), and Moses-Massena 23kV (#MMS1/MMS2) transmission lines. On 1/3-1/6/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments was the Edic-Marcy 345kV. The correlated outage was that of the Marcy-Fraser Annex-Coopers 345kV (#UCC2-41) from 1/3/216 7: to 1/9/216 15:3 scheduled continuously. On 1/13/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments was the Moses-Adirondack 23kV (#MA1). The correlated outage was that of the Moses-Adirondack 23kV (#MA2) from 1/11/216 7:-1/14/216 15:3 scheduled continuously. On 1/18 & 1/19/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments was the Moses South interface. The correlated outage was that of the Massena-Marcy 765kV (#MSU1) from 1/17/216 1: to 1/22/216 19: scheduled continuously which impacts the Moses South TTC by 2,65MW reducing it from the TTC with all lines in service of 3,15MW to 5MW. On 1/22-1/25/216 the limiting constraint resulting in wind curtailments were the Marcy 765/345kV bank AT1, the Adirondack-Chases Lake-Porter line. The correlated outages were the Marcy 765/345kV bank AT2 from 1/17/216 1: to 1/28/216 15:3 scheduled continuously, the CHAT_DC_GC1 & GC2 from 1/17/216 1: to 1/25/216 17:3 scheduled continuously, and the Adirondack-Porter 23kV (#12) from 1/24/216 HB23 to 1/25/216 HB15 forced continuously. Similarly, as noted in the October 216 Operations metrics reports highlights, higher levels of wind curtailments in the North Country that month were coincident with the scheduled outages of the Chateauguay-Massena 765kV (#74), Massena-Marcy 765kV (#MSU1), and Moses- Massena 23kV (#MMS1/MMS2) transmission lines. 2
October 216 Negative LBMP We do observe a correlation between wind curtailments and negative zonal LBMP 8% of the North zone RTD intervals in October 216 had negative LBMPs 77% of those RTD intervals were coincident with wind curtailments 17% of these RTD intervals were coincident with oversupply of energy The wind curtailments were driven by scheduled and unscheduled transmission facility outages. Oversupply of energy, usually in off-peak hours, is the other primary driver of negative LBMP. 21
Year 216 Negative LBMP Similar to the October 216 analysis, there is a correlation between wind curtailments and negative zonal LBMP 9% of the North zone RTD intervals in 216 had negative LBMPs 3% of those RTD intervals were coincident with wind curtailments 7% of these RTD intervals were coincident with oversupply of energy The wind curtailments were driven by scheduled and unscheduled transmission facility outages. Oversupply of energy, usually in off-peak hours, is the other primary driver of negative LBMP. 22
216: North Zone Negative RTD LBMP 6 Hourly Negative LBMP breakout 5 Duration (Hours) 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 NEG RTD LBMP NEG RTD LBMP_WIND CURTAIL 23
Annual Negative RTD LBMP by Zone Duration (Hours) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 WEST GENESE CENTRL NORTH MHK VL CAPITL HUD VL MILLWD DUNWOD LONGIL N.Y.C. 212 12 18 12 49 13 3 3 3 3 3 3 213 49 56 49 29 49 22 21 21 2 2 2 214 47 52 47 185 48 31 31 31 31 31 31 215 62 111 88 42 76 24 24 23 23 23 24 216 147 355 239 756 193 28 28 28 28 27 41 212 213 214 215 216 24
Questions? 25
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