Date: October 18, 2016 Regarding: Vehicle Thefts with Keys in the United States - (Public Dissemination) Prepared By: Olivia Ortiz, Strategic Analyst and Josh Cahill, Strategic Analyst Section 1: Introduction This ForeCAST SM Report analyzes the National Crime Information Center (NCIC) vehicle theft data to identify trends and patterns regarding vehicle thefts in the United States where the vehicle was taken with the keys. Vehicle thefts included in this analysis are those where it is believed that the vehicle s key was used to steal the vehicle. Theft scenarios include opportunistic thefts while a vehicle is being warmed up in the winter with keys in the ignition, instances where thieves simply drove off because owners left keys in the vehicle console, and other thefts where the vehicle was stolen through use of the keys. The vehicles included in this study are passenger vehicles of all model years. Vehicle thefts with keys were identified by using the NCIC text fields available to NICB. Terms indicating the vehicle was stolen with the keys were used as search criteria. Thefts not containing these terms were not included in the data set. This report includes an overall look at vehicle thefts with keys and details the top 10 theft states and theft core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). This report also studies the trend in model years stolen. In addition, the report takes a similar look at unrecovered vehicle thefts with keys, including the top 10 unrecovered theft states, and CBSAs. The last section of this report analyzes trends and patterns in vehicle thefts with keys with relation to dates of theft. Section 2: Executive Summary There were 147,434 vehicle thefts with keys reported stolen in the United States between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015 1. The analysis in this report shows that California has the highest number of vehicle thefts with keys by state (22,580). The Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV CBSA has the highest number of thefts (7,815) by CBSA while the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI CBSA has the highest number of unrecovered thefts (452) by CBSA. Vehicle thefts with keys increased by 31% from 2013 to 2015 with thefts spiking in the fall and winter months each year. Section 3: Top Theft States and CBSAs California had the most vehicle thefts with keys at 22,580 thefts, followed by Texas with 11,003 thefts, and Florida with 9,952 thefts. The graph below shows the top 10 thefts states for vehicle thefts with keys. As a whole, the top 10 theft states represent 59% of the vehicle thefts with keys. 1 Only NCIC entries with 17 character vehicle identification numbers (VINs) were included in this report.
Page 2 of 6 Top 10 States for Thefts with Keys 25,000 22,580 20,000 15,000 10,000 11,003 9,952 8,623 8,073 7,037 5,000 5,405 5,258 4,872 4,550 - CA TX FL OH NV MI GA IL WI IN Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV has the CBSA with highest number of thefts at 7,815. The Detroit- Warren-Dearborn, MI CBSA had 4,380 vehicle thefts with keys, followed by Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA CBSA with 4,118 thefts. Top 10 CBSAs for Thefts with Keys Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Cleveland-Elyria, OH 4,380 4,118 3,847 3,365 3,095 3,087 2,997 2,810 2,634 7,815-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Section 4: Vehicle Year Model Patterns The chart below illustrates the vehicle thefts with keys by model year. From the 2002 model year to 2009, there is a significant drop, suggesting that older models are more likely to be stolen with keys. The chart below illustrates the vehicle theft pattern in 2000-2016 models only.
Page 3 of 6 10,000 Vehicle Thefts with Keys by Model Year during Period of 9,000 8,586 8,986 8,915 8,609 8,000 7,000 8,244 8,806 8,402 7,639 7,409 6,000 6,344 5,965 5,664 5,000 4,704 4,000 4,564 3,901 3,533 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Section 5: Unrecovered Thefts Of the 147,434 vehicle thefts with keys in this analysis, 8,759 (or 6%) were still unrecovered at the time this data was pulled. The chart below details the top 10 theft states for unrecovered vehicle thefts with keys. By state, Texas had the highest number of unrecovered thefts with 939, followed by California with 729, and Indiana with 619. 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - Top 10 States For Unrecovered Thefts with Keys 939 729 619 597 484 439 405 401 TX CA IN MI FL OH NJ GA MO PA 347 303
Page 4 of 6 By CBSA, the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI CBSA had the most unrecovered thefts with 452. The next highest CBSAs were Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA with 305 and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE- MD with 299. Top 10 CBSAs for Unrecovered Thefts with Keys Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Oklahoma City, OK Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 143 137 205 265 256 248 278 305 299 452 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Section 6: Thefts and Date Relations The table below shows a breakdown of vehicle thefts with keys by month and year. Not only was there an overall spike in thefts with keys for 2015, an increase of thefts during the start of cooler temperatures is shown.
Page 5 of 6 The daily average number of vehicle thefts with keys from is 135 thefts per day. The table below illustrates the top 10 dates where the most thefts occurred. It is interesting to note that all the top dates occur when the weather is traditionally colder. Additionally, all the top dates of thefts with keys occurred in 2015. Top 10 Theft Dates during with the Highest Number of Vehicle Thefts with Keys Reported Date Number of Thefts December 31, 2015 210 December 14, 2015 204 December 28, 2015 203 November 21, 2015 202 December 21, 2015 201 December 30, 2015 197 November 20, 2015 197 December 18, 2015 196 November 22, 2015 196 December 23, 2015 196 The graph below illustrates the pattern of thefts by day of the week. Saturday is the day of the week where most thefts occur.
Page 6 of 6 22,500 Vehicle Thefts with Keys by Day of the Week from 2013-2015 22,000 21,500 21,851 21,652 22,081 21,000 20,500 20,859 20,784 20,000 19,500 20,067 20,140 19,000 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Section 6: Conclusion Between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015, 147,434 vehicle thefts with keys were reported. California had the most vehicle thefts with keys by state with 22,580 thefts reported, followed by Texas with 11,003, and Florida with 9,952. In addition, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV CBSA had the most vehicle thefts with keys with 7,815. The Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI CBSA had 4,380 vehicle thefts with keys, with Atlanta- Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA coming in third with 4,118 thefts. Out of the 147,434 vehicle thefts with keys, 6% were unrecovered. By state, Texas had the most unrecovered vehicle thefts with keys with 939. California came in second with 729 unrecovered thefts and Indiana was third with 619 unrecovered thefts with keys. By CBSA, the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI CBSA has the most unrecovered thefts at 452, followed by the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA CBSA with 305. From 2013 to 2015, thefts of vehicles with keys increased overall with thefts spiking in the fall/winter months each year. When looking at theft totals for the days of the week, Saturdays topped the list during the period of analysis with 22,081 in all.