Climate Science Regional Action Plan (DRAFT)

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Climate Science Regional Action Plan (DRAFT) Southeast Fisheries Science Center Ecosystem Science Program Review Sunny Snider March 2016 Team & contributors: Mandy Karnauskas, John Lamkin, Roldan Munoz, Eric Hoffmayer, John Walter, Shannon Calay, John Quinlan, David Carter, Akbar Marvasti, Matt McPherson, Lance Garrison, Chris Sasso, Margaret Miller, Heidi Lovett, Karla Gore, Mike Jepson, Jennifer Cudney, Allison Moulding, Chris Kelble, Sang-ki Lee

Increase the production, delivery and use of climaterelated information in fulfilling NOAA Fisheries mandates U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 2

Regional Action Plans Develop with key partners Councils, States, & other partners Customize for each region Inform future planning and budgeting Build and expand partnerships and leverage resources U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 3

Regional Action Plans Develop with key partners Councils, States, & other partners Customize for each region Inform future planning and budgeting Build and expand partnerships and leverage resources U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 4

Southeast Regional Action Plan Draft plan for Gulf of Mexico - a great time for input! Scheduling, staging, prioritizing actions Thorough assessment of funding requirements Identify additional partners U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 5

1. Climate-Informed Reference Points 2. Robust Management Strategies 3. Adaptive Management Processes 4. Robust Projections of Future Conditions 5. Information on Mechanisms of Change 6. Status, Trends and Early Warnings 7. Science Infrastructure to Deliver Actionable Information U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 6

7. Science Infrastructure to Deliver Actionable Information Strategic planning for climate science Build and strengthen capacity Infrastructure Strengthen partnerships Citizen Science NOAA Ship Gordon Gunter U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 7

6. Status, Trends and Early Warnings Critical baseline data Ecosystem Status Report Early warning toolbox U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 8

5. Information on Mechanisms of Change Vulnerability Assessments Research & Monitoring U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 9

4. Robust Projections of Future Conditions Larval habitat: 2090s RCP 8.5 Predictive Modeling Application of existing models Standard modeling toolbox Muhling et al. 2015 Probability of occurrence May 2012 Bluefin tuna larval cruise, photo by K. Davis U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 10

3. Adaptive Management Processes Quantify management tradeoffs under climate change scenarios Respond to events in real time Predicted future stock productivity High Low Buffer between OFL and ACL Large Small Strengthen dialogue, e.g., what trends are fishermen observing? Marine Resource Education Program (Tampa, FL) U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 11

2. Robust Management Strategies Prob. avoid overfishing 1 Management Strategy Evaluations Catch forage fish Catch other large predators 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Prob. avoid collapse Net Present Value Define management objectives collaboratively Biomass forage fish Stability of the catch Ecosystem Considerations Summary (e.g., AKFSC) Biomass other large predators U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 12

1. Climate-Informed Reference Points Consider climate as we develop reference points. Share ideas, models, approaches among regions May 2012 Bluefin tuna larval cruise, photo by Katie Davis U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 13

Next Steps Refine action items Input from Councils, States, and other partners Incorporate South Atlantic and Caribbean ecosystems Public comment (summer 2016) Finalize all regional plans by October 2016 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 14

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