Theological Education: State of the Enterprise and the Impact on Economic Challenges Facing Future Ministers

Theological Education: State of the Enterprise and the Impact on Economic Challenges Facing Future Ministers

The Three Big Question: Finance for Future Ministers What are the economic challenges facing future ministers? Whose economic challenges are these? How do the actors involved, both individual and institutional, realize and act to solve the challenges? What are the most effective strategies that can be devised to solve these challenges?

Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Enrollment Financial Capacity Current Responses to Economic Challenges

90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Total Enrollment by Degree Categories Other Adv Acad Adv Prof Acad MA Prof MA MDiv 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total HC Enrollment by School in Fall 2013 and Change Over Last Decade 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Enrollment scale is truncated to 600. About 35% have increased and 65% decreased over the decade. Median change is 14% and median enrollment is 165 HC students.

Total Enrollment by School, 2013 (median = 155 students) 4000 3500 3000 Total Enrollment 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 25 th 50 th 75 th M Schools 9 schools = 25% / 33 schools = 50% / Total Enrollment = 73005 students in 267 schools

Applications, Acceptances, New Enrollees in Degree Programs, Same Set ATS Schools 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 Applications Acceptances New Enrollees 5000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 This reflects the same 208 schools that were part of ATS for the entire two decades. The number of Applications, Acceptances, and New Enrollees has grown about 7 10% during the period.

Average New Enrollees and New Enrollees as Percent of Completions, Last Decade 200 Average New Enrollees 150 100 50 0 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% New Enrollees as Percent of Completions Scale truncated to 200 new enrollees and 200%. Median in last decade is 36 and 123%.

Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Expenditures Financial Capacity Current Responses to Economic Challenges

Adjusted Unrestricted Revenues and Expenses $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 $200 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Millions Adjusted Revenues Expenses Surplus (deficit)

Expense/FTE in Freestanding Schools, 2013 (median = $46,400) $250,000 $200,000 Exp/FTE $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 M Schools

$60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Expenditures per FTE by Ecclesial Family 2012 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 Evangelical Mainline Roman Catholic/Orthodox

The Financial Story: Expenditures for Education, Institutional Support, and Scholarship in ATS Schools $900 $800 $700 $600 Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Education (Instruction, Library, Academic Support) Institutional Support (All Other) Scholarship

Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Revenues

LT Investments in ATS Schools $9 $8 $7 $6 Billions $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 70% Mainline, 20% Evangelical, 10% RC/Orthodox. 40% in 10 schools. 70 schools reported none.

$400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 5% Earnings on 3 Year Rolling Average of LT Investments in ATS Schools Millions 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Giving by Source All ATS Schools $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Millions Other Orgs Fund Raising Religious Orgs Corporations Foundation Other Ind Alumni

Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools $700 $600 Gross Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Net Net + US $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net + ATS Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Freestanding $700 $600 Gross Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Net Net + US $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net + ATS Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Evangelical $400 Millions $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 Gross Net Net + US $100 $50 Net + ATS $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Mainline $250 $200 Gross Millions $150 $100 Net Net + ATS $50 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Net + US Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

Gross and Net Tuition in ATS Schools Roman Catholic/Orthodox $120 $100 Gross Millions $80 $60 $40 Net Net + US $20 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net + ATS Net + ATS = ATS expenditure change upon base year. Net + US = US CPI change upon base year.

Theological Education: The State of the Enterprise Student Debt What is debt load by age group? What student population is particularly susceptible to debt? What is current debt load and changes over time? What are differences between freestanding and related? What is debt rate with crosstab to tuition rate? How does time to completion impact student debt?

Educational Debt Brought to and Incurred in Seminary, ATS and ECFFM Schools, Masters Students 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% More than $40,000 $30,000 to $39,999 $20,000 to $29,999 $10,000 to $19,999 Less than $10,000 None 10% 0% Brought ATS Incurred ATS Brought ECFFM Incurred ECFFM Source: ATS Gradating Student Questionnaire Average of Last Three Years.

Educational Debt Brought to and Incurred in Seminary, Masters Students Incurred 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% None <$10K $10K $20K $20 $30K $30K $40K >$40K Brought >$40K $30K $40K $20 $30K $10K $20K <$10K None Source: ATS Gradating Student Questionnaire Average of Last Three Years.

Educational Incurred in Seminary, by Age Group, ATS Schools, Masters Students 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20 25 26 30 31 35 36 40 41 45 46 50 51 55 56+ >$40K $30K $40K $20K $30K $10 $20K <$10K None Source: ATS Gradating Student Questionnaire Average of Last Three Years.

Theological Education: State of the Enterprise and the Impact on Economic Challenges Facing Future Ministers