INVESTING IN SUSTAINABLE FISHING CAN SPARK GLOBAL FISHERIES RECOVERY

Source: FAO Status of World Fisheries & Aquaculture 2014

Source: Pauly and Zeller, 2016

Modified from V. Hickey; Source: FishStat model projection

overexploited fully exploited collapsed developing rebuilding Modified from Lubchenco; FAO data, Pauly 2013 Nature, adapted from Pauly 2007 AMBIO

WHAT IF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IN FISHERIES WAS POSSIBLE? http://www.edf.org/oceanupside

Gulf of Mexico Red Snapper New management implemented Source: http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/sustainable_fisheries/gulf_fisheries/red_snapper/overview/

TODAY S PANELISTS: RAY HILBORN, University of Washington NIGEL EDWARDS, Icelandic Seachill CHRISTOPHER KNOWLES, European Investment Bank

Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn + Collaborators 1 EBM Tools Webinar December 2, 2015 1 Including Trevor Branch, Reniel Cabral, Tyler Clavelle, Steve Gaines, Amanda Leland, Mike Melnychuk, Dan Ovando, Doug Rader, Kent Strauss, Cody Szuwalski, Matt Elliott and CEA. Thanks to Helmsley Trust, Waitt Foundation, & Packard Foundation for financial support. Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Focal Questions What are the effects of global fishery recover? Food? Profit? Conservation? What are the distributional effects? What is the timing-to-recovery? Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Project Scope Compile Database RAM, FAO, SOFIA databases Remove overlapping and unusable stocks Estimate Current Status Panel regression model & Catch-MSY Biological parameters NEI stocks Develop Policy Options Value maximization Optimize with Catch Shares F MSY Business as usual (BAU) Project Policy Outcomes For all stocks Project to 2048 Discount rate=5% Project Flowchart Upside from Recovering Global Fisheries Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Analyze Upside Relative to today and to BAU Harvest Profits (NPV) Biomass Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Global Wild Fish Production Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Biology: Fish Growth Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Bioeconomics: Optimal Condition Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Institutional Reforms Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Policies Business as Usual (BAU) Reformed fisheries -economic maximization RAM fisheries (not reformed) continued fishing mortality rate Other fisheries bionomic equilibrium BAU conservation concern Only stocks of conservation concern FMSY Rights based management RBFM Economic optimization

A Model of Global Fishery Reform Stock-by-stock analysis (4,718 fisheries worldwide) Economics data, ecological data Current status estimates Projections under different management scenarios Effects and tradeoffs between: Food Profits Conservation Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Global Coverage of Database Included 77% 23% Unaccounted Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Major Tuna species

Small Pelagics

Whitefish

Kobe Plots for select regions Globa l Northeast Pacific 3 2 1 F FMSY Northeast Atlantic Western Central Pacific 3 2 1 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 B B MSY 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Upside Results by Country (Relative to BAU) Change Annual Profit ($ Billion) Change in Annual Profit ($ Billion) 14 Change in Catch (MMT) 0 1 5 12 10 8 6 4 2 0.2 4.4 MSY (MMT, of conservation concern) China Chin a Mala ysia Thailand Viet Nam S. Korea Taiwan Indonesia India Japan Philippines 4 3 2 1 0 A 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10 20 30 0 Change in Biomass (MMT) 0 Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Overall Global Upside Results Annual Profit ($ Billions) 80 RBFM 70.6 RBFM 64.1 60 F MSY F MSY 73.1 64.1 40 BA U 58.2 Today 62.4 20 BA U 54.6 0 Policy applied to stocks of conservation concern Policy applied to all stocks 400 600 800 1000 Biomass (MMT) Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn 1200 Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Timing of Recovery % Stocks above B/Bmsy of 0.8 Mean time to recovery = 10 years 100 80 60 Profit/year ($ Billion) 10 80 RBF M F MSY 40 20 0 49 88 Total harvest (MMT) BAU (conservation concern) BAU (all stocks) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Intensity of fisheries management Research Management landings data body size or age data surveys to monitor trends in abundance stock assessments objectives and fishery management plan regulations to limit fishing pressure capacity to adjust regulations and fishing pressure Enforcement dockside monitoring and at-sea observers penalties and compliance protection of sensitive habitats discarding and by-catch measures Socioeconomics controls on access and entry transparency community involvement capacity-enhancing subsidies

% change, 2050 RBFM relative to status quo projections for 2050 % change under fishery reform Predicted changes from fishery reform 400% 300% R² = 0.66 Catch Biomass Profits 200% 100% 0% R² = 0.60 R² = 0.57-100% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Intensity of Fisheries Management FGI

Management Costs Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Summary of Results Global triple-bottom-line is possible 2 : Harvest increases 20 MMT Biomass increases 792 MMT Profit increase $68 Billion Median recovery time is 10 years Consistent set of management interventions achieve results Countries and types of fisheries that have not yet reformed fisheries have the most to gain 2 These results are relative to BAU and scaled-up for missing data. Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

Thank You! Christopher Costello and Ray Hilborn Ocean Prosperity and the Effects of Fishery Recovery

INVESTING IN SUSTAINABLE FISHING CAN SPARK GLOBAL FISHERIES RECOVERY Nigel Edwards 1 st February 2016

Outline Who we are and what we do Time line of Fisheries Improvement Collaboration delivers change in the sea The importance of local Looking ahead with confidence

300m Wetfish Smoked Coated Ready To Eat 1100 Employees Grimsby UK 4 Sites

Icelandic Seachill Delivery - Trust

Timeline of Fisheries Improvement 1995-2004 Scientists show global challenge of fisheries MSC Born Certification begins 2005-2009 FIPs Private sector / NGO / regulator partnerships formed Sunken Billions Report 2010 16 EU IUU Regulation New models for funding transition to sustainability CFP reform Responsible Fishing Scheme

Well Managed Fisheries - Northeast Arctic cod stocks at an all-time high Fishing mortality at the lowest level since 1990 comparable with levels seen in the late 1940s

Project Inshore

Thank you nigeledwards@icelandic.co.uk

Finance for climate action Over EUR 90bn for climate action in 2011-2015 (EUR 20.6bn in 2015) EUR 200m to the fisheries sector in last five years EIB Climate Action financing 2011-2015 Annual lending tripled between 2010 and 2014, with 95% of loans made within the EU and 5% outside the EU.