Firearm Registration: An Evaluation
Presented to the Annual Convention of the ANPP-NAPP Calgary, Alberta July 11, 2003
Professor Gary A. Mauser Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies Faculty of Business Administration Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC
Brief History of Canadian Firearm Laws Handgun registration - Proclaimed in 1934 C-51 - Proclaimed in 1977 Eg, FAC, unsafe storage C-17 - Proclaimed in 1991 Eg, stiffer rules for the FAC C-68 - Proclaimed in 1995 Eg, registration and licencing
Firearm Registration: an Evaluation Three topics in my presentation: Has it worked? What is the cost? Implications for police Conclusions
Has it worked?
The Politicians Promise: Improved Public Safety The goal of the new regulations is to help keep Canada safe [and]to prevent violence. Allan Rock, Justice Minister, Nov. 27, 1996..the firearms program is improv(ing) public safety in Canada. Martin Cauchon, Justice Minister, Dec. 3, 2002
New Ministry, Same Promise [The firearm registration] system [is] intended to be used to make our streets and communities safer. Wayne Easter, Solicitor General, Jun 3, 2003
Has it worked? Has firearm registration delivered on its promise of public safety? The true test is if violent crime drops
Violent crime, not gun deaths Crime is the traditional concern of the police Gun crime is just a fraction of violent crime The public is not safer if gun crime decreases while violent crime increases
How can firearm regulations help to create a safer society? In theory, firearm registration will: Encourage responsibility among firearm owners By motivating citizen to be responsible By allowing police to check on each citizen Reduce the number of guns and gun owners Increased costs Increase bureaucratic hassle But does it work in practice?
Are Owners Complying? How successful is licencing? How successful is registration?
How Many Gun Owners Are There? Survey Estimates of Households with Firearms 35.0 Percent of households reporting one or more firearm 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0-1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: Mauser (2001)
How Successful is Licencing? Gun Licences and Gun Owners (Millions) Post-1995 Poll Mean (Corr) Gun owners (CFC Estimate) Licences (estimated) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Source: Department of Justice, Mauser (2001)
How Many Owners Not Licenced? 300,000 unlicenced gun owners CFC estimate At least 1.5 Million unlicenced gun owners Post-1995 polls (Mauser)
How Successful is Registration? Firearms in Canada (Millions) Import/Export Estimate Mean Estimate (Mauser) CFC Estimate Registered as of 1 July 03 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: CFC, Surveys, Mauser (2001)
How Many Guns are Unregistered? 1.6 M unregistered guns CFC estimate At least 6 M unregistered guns Post-1995 Polls (Mauser)
Have Firearms Regulations Reduced Violent Crime? Homicide Violent crime What about Suicide (80% of gun deaths)?
Homicide in Canada Canadian Homicide Rate 3.50 Homicides per 100,000 population 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50-1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: Statistics Canada
It Can t be Canadian Gun Laws US Canadian Homicide rates 3.50 12 3.00 10 Canadian homicide rate 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50-1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 8 6 4 US homicide rate CDN US 2 0
Trend in Robbery and Firearm Robbery 140 45 All Robbery Rates 120 100 80 60 40 20 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Firearm Robbery Rates All Robbery Firearm Robbery 0 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Source: Stats Can (Cat 85-205)
Trend in Armed Robbery 140 80 120 70 All Robbery Rate 100 80 60 40 60 50 40 30 20 Armed Robbery Rate All Robbery Armed Robbery 20 10 0 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Source: Stats Can (Cat 85-205)
Violent Crime Trends Violent Crime Rates in Canada and the United States 1200 Offences per 100,000 population 1000 800 600 400 200 CDN US 0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Sources: Juristat, 2002; FBI, 2002
What About Suicide? Firearms and Suicide in Canada 16 6 Total Suicide Rate per 100,000 population 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 5 4 3 2 1 Firearm Suicide Rate per 100,000 population Total Suicide Rate Firearm Suicide Rate 0 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Source: Preville (2003)
What is the Cost?
Three Kinds of Costs Implementation costs Enforcement costs Opportunity costs
Implementation Costs of Registration Auditor General estimated that the Department of Justice costs would be At least one billion dollars by 04-05 Auditor General s Report, Dec. 2002
Unknown Additional Costs Federal government did not fully cooperate with Auditor General AG did not examine other cooperating agencies, e.g., Solicitor General Customs These unknown costs may total another Billion dollars
Enforcement Costs of Registration Easily cost still another billion dollars Between 300,000 and 1.5 M owners in noncompliance Enforcement costs per conviction At least $3,000 Up to $10,000 A possible total of three billion dollars
Opportunity Costs of Registration We could have spent these billions on: More police, better salaries Fighting organized crime Fighting terrorism Expanded corrections
Slow Decline in Police Officers per Capita Police Officers per Capita 250.0 Police per 100,000 population 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0-1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Source: Can Sim
Police Budgets (Not Adjusted for Inflation) Total Expenditures on Police $8,000,000 $7,000,000 Expenditures (000) (Not adjusted for Inflation) $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $- 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: Statistics Canada
Real Police Expenditures are Flat (weighted by CPI) Expenditures for Police Personnel (Weighted by CPI) $120.00 $100.00 Budget per Officer $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 Police Officers Total Personnel $20.00 $- 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: Statistics Canada, 2002
Fighting Organized Crime Prosecutions are difficult, expensive Funding very limited Charges infrequent
Fighting Terrorism Screening immigrants and visitors to Canada Tracking illegal immigrants with deportation orders Budgets are extremely limited
Some Facts about Terrorists 36,000 immigrants ordered deported have been lost Auditor General, April 2003 8,000-10,000 Tamil terrorists in Canada Mackenzie Institute, July 9, 2003
Expanded Corrections Longer prison terms More prison sentences More probation and parole officers More prisons Corrections budget flat for past decade (after accounting for inflation)
Implications for Police
Implications for Police Expansion of the grey market Increase in the black market Increased risk for police Registration violates basic police principles
Increased Risk to Police Inaccurate registry creates False positives False negatives RCMP has concerns about errors in registry and poor screening of gun owners
False negatives When the police are called out to a house where NO firearms are registered, Does no registration mean - no firearm? Few violent criminals will register their guns The police CANNOT trust the registry
False positives When police called out to an address where a firearm is registered, Does a registered gun mean danger? Only the most law-abiding people will register their guns. The gun registry misleads police
Firearm Registration Violates Basic Police Principles
Sir Robert Peel, England The founder of modern policing Introduced the London Bobbies In 1822, he developed basic policing principles
Firearm Registration Violates these Principles The police are the public, and the public are the police The police need the willing cooperation of the public to enforce the laws
Implications for Police Firearm registration undermines support for the police Firearm registration reduces public willingness to cooperate with the police Policing resembles military occupation forces
Conclusions Firearm registration has not increased public safety Firearm registration is diverting billions of dollars away from legitimate police activities
Conclusions Firearm registration undermines support for the police Firearm registration increases the risk for police
PEEL S NINE PRINCIPLES OF POLICING: Sir Robert Peel, England (1822)
PEEL S PRINCIPLES OF POLICING 1. To prevent crime and disorder, as an alternative to their repression by military force and by severity of legal punishment. 2. To recognize always that the power of the police to fulfill their functions and duties is dependent on public approval of their existence, actions and behavior, and on their ability to secure and maintain public respect.
PEEL S PRINCIPLES OF POLICING 3. To recognize always that to secure and maintain the respect and approval of the public means also the securing of willing cooperation of the public in the task of securing observance of laws. 4. To recognize always that the extent to which the cooperation of the public can be secured diminishes, proportionately, the necessity of the use of physical force and compulsion for achieving police objectives.
PEEL S PRINCIPLES OF POLICING 5. To seek and to preserve public favour, not by pandering to public opinion, but by constantly demonstrating absolutely impartial service to law, in complete independence of policy, and without regard to the justice or injustices of the substance of individual laws; ; and by ready offering of individual sacrifice in protecting and preserving life.
PEEL S PRINCIPLES OF POLICING 6. To use physical force only when the exercise of persuasion, advice and warning is found to be insufficient to obtain public cooperation to an extent necessary to secure observance of law or to restore order; and to use only the minimum degree of physical force which is necessary on any particular occasion for achieving a police objective.
PEEL S PRINCIPLES OF POLICING 7. To maintain at all time a relationship with the public that gives reality to the historic tradition that the police are the public and that the public are the police; the police being only members of the public who are paid to give full-time attention to duties which are incumbent on every citizen, in the interests of community welfare and existence.
PEEL S PRINCIPLES OF POLICING 8. To recognize always the need for strict adherence to police-executive functions, and to refrain from even seeming to usurp the powers of the judiciary of avenging individuals or the state, and of authoritatively judging guilt and punishing the guilty.
PEEL S PRINCIPLES OF POLICING 9. To recognize always that the test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, and not the visible evidence of police action in dealing with them.