HTR Report Thoroughbred Handicapping Newsletter Jan/Feb 2016 Brought to you by Ken Massa Handicapping Technology and Research Contents [1] Front Page [2] Year in Review 2015 K=1 Overlays Longshot Plays Fr1 Bombs Razor Sharp [8] Handicapping with HTR TSpot Review New MSpot [11] Tournament Strategy Saturday for the Money [12] Back Page Announcements The HTR Report newsletter is converted from a Microsoft Word Document to a.pdf file for viewing with the free Adobe Reader. The newsletter may be viewed while on-line or the file can be downloaded to your computer hard-drive for off-line reading and printing. The newsletter is available bi-monthly. The current edition of the HTR Report is available on the Internet from our members web site only. The newsletter is included as part of a paid subscription to HTR s monthly download service ($119/mo). All proprietary rights to this material belong to HTR alone. No portion of this product may be reproduced, copied or transmitted on the Internet without the express written consent of Ken Massa. All articles and information in this newsletter are written by Ken Massa unless otherwise stated. Test data files are provided with permission from Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp. The test results, analysis and opinions found herein are those of HTR only - Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp are not responsible for the written contents of this newsletter and cannot be held accountable for any claims made in it.
HTR Report 2 Year in Review Assessing 2015 / Forward to 2016 This annual first-of-the-year newsletter issue is probably the most enjoyable for me to research. The data sample is a slam dunk, with a date setting from Jan 1 - Dec 31. A review of the previous year's results is a great way to accelerate the learning curve and readiness for the coming year. First we want to thank of all our subscribers for another amazing 12 months on HTR. Last year we introduced some great new concepts that are profiting our members. Here are some of the highlights, the first two will be covered with more depth in this issue. TSpot MSpot Robot3 Filtering and Report Enhancements MaxVel Modeler New Options HTR-Tour Ultimate Longshot List Upgrade The last three options, along with our HTR2/Export allow our users the very best research and data testing opportunities in the industry. We don't hide any weaknesses with our ratings. In fact, understanding how difficult it is turn a profit is imperative. Feedback is the process of learning when something doesn't work as much as when it does. The (K) rating is the perfect guinea pig for the HTR handicapping laboratory. The (K) rating is the prime contender selector in HTR. It is a rating with very few ties and a single top selection in every race. Steady statistical results over two decades have proven its value. The top ranked (K=1) has won about 30% of the races without fail in almost any reasonable test sample for two decades. At one time, the ROI was well over 0.90 (-10%). For the last several years the ROI has declined and is now at 0.84 (-16%) due to over betting of favorites and shrinking field size in most dirt races. Does K=1 still hold any value for making money? Let's explore that by looking through the year 2015. We'll track the best K=1 plays and explore the rating for possible value. All the test data in this issue is based on races run from Jan 1, 2015 - Dec. 31, 2015 with a purse of $10,000 or more. The total races tested are over 32,500 for the year. We'll define a "Longshot" in these pages as any horse at odds 8/1 or more. A "cap" winner, as all tournament players know, is a horse that won at odds of 20/1 or better. K=1 Review 2015 Although the overall ROI for K=1 remained paltry at about 0.84 (-16%) during the year 2015, there were a lot of positives to be found with the top (K) plays. There were more than 70 K=1 winners during 2015 paid off at odds of 8/1 or more. That's a big year for the top (K) and every one of them could be considered an overlay with excellent value. Considering the average K=1 winner returns less than $6.00, it is a golden nugget to find one at 8/1 or more. The K=1 overlays are often the result of over-betting on another horse in the same race. Whether it is "chalk fever", "the boys upstairs", "owner sends it in", or "offshore dumping", some horses get hammered far below their fair odds for no logical reason. Most of you are experienced and wise enough to recognize that heavy betting is rarely genuine "inside information" and produces a major loss on the betting dollar. But when it happens, it is a signal to look at another logical contender. Sometimes a K=1 will drift up past 4/1 and become a solid overlay.
HTR Report 3 Year in Review Best of K=1 We will analyze K=1 in this article by looking through a full year of data and then a top-10 list of the best K=1 plays of 2015. Four key statistical categories we'll cover for K=1 are listed below. 1. K=1 or top-ranked (K). One in every race and about 30% winners. 2. K110+ is a K=1 with a (K) Rating of 110 or more. They win close to 40%. 3. HF (Hyper-Favorite). A high percentage K=1 spot play hits 50% winners. 4. K=1 longshots (8/1 odds or more). Rarely found, usually a big overlay. Here are the stats for each in 2015 with K=1 in these categories. K=1 All Races Purse $10,000+ Year 2015 Item Plays Win ITM WROI AvgWin High I.V. K=1 All 32573 31% 66% 0.84 $5.40 $38 2.45 K=1 K110+ 11602 38% 74% 0.84 $4.40 $23 2.83 K=1 HF 1702 51% 84% 0.90 $3.50 $13 3.58 K=1 8/1+ 869 09% 30% 0.91 $21.60 $38 0.76 Analysis Steady and rising win rate for the K=1 in 2015 hitting over 31% now, but the ROI suffers as most of the winners are over-bet favorites. The extreme K=1 favorites (HF) produce a better ROI due to hitting more than 50% winners as do the rare 8/1+ longshots. Flat bet profits with K=1 are achieved with a few categories in tandem with "Lone $$", TSpot, MSpot and "Price Play". Best K=1 Plays 2015 Dec 13, 2015; GP-1, #7 Syrisong $38.00 This is a ridiculous overlay at 18/1. Not only K=1, but it was also a $$ with a 6/1 MLO. There is no particular explanation for the fat price as the horse had strong connections, good pace & speed figures and top pedigree. This value play of the year was likely caused by over-betting on the favorite. May 23, 2015; CBY-4, #7 Score More $30.00 Here is an amazing overlay with odds of 14/1 in a short field. Not only is it K=1, but it also had the enviable combination of Fr1=1 + Razor Sharp workout. A weak jockey may have helped the odds. Apr 2, 2015; OP-7; #2 Saturdaynight; $22.60 (K=110) There were many K=1 winners that paid better than this one, but it is notable here because it was the highest paying K110+ play of 2015 at a major track. The horse also had the top PAC-PER numbers in the field as well as a strong trainer and jockey combo. Go figure. A typical K110+ is sent off around 7/5 odds. There was no heavy favorite in this race to distort the wagering. It was a huge mistake by the public that resulted in a massive overlay. Aug 21, 2015; MTH-3; #3 Lady Vivien; $21.40 This one is included because it has the highest ratio of tote odds to MLO of all the K=1 winners. The MLO was 3/1 and the final odds were 9.7 to 1. There were no scratches or changes or unusual betting in this race. It is extremely rare to find a K=1 that is sent off at odds that are over 3 times its MLO. There were just a handful of them during all of 2015. If you are lucky enough to spot one, don't hesitate to bet on it!
HTR Report 4 Year in Review HTR Longshot Plays of the Year Within HTR software we have a few primary Live Longshot flags and several Secondary factors that are also beneficial for spotting contenders at decent odds. As always, we define our longshot plays as horses with odds 8/1 and up. Primary Live Longshot Flags That Use Multiple Factors $$ / Lone$$ / Price Play Tour / Bomb KAT 6+ Improve Rating 3+ Tour Buzz 3+ On Demand TSpot / MSpot (new) Secondary Longshot Indicators that are based on a Single Rating $ Most any factor rank= 1 ( HTR= 1, k2=1, Fr1=1, etc.) Fr1 Specialty Ratings (Fr1 Dominant / Advantage / 60) Razor Sharp / Lone Razor / Double Razor / Fit & Ready Luck BTL PED=1 / PED 450+ The items listed in the Secondary group are used in combination to create the ratings in the Primary group. The Primary group combines two or more of the key rankings or ratings, while the Secondary group is primarily a single factor or rank. We will discuss several of the live longshot factors individually later in this issue. For now let's look at a list of the key plays during 2015 that were quickly identified with multiple elements from the above lists. Longshot Plays of the Year 2015 Oct 21, BEL-6, #4 On Tenterhooks; $68 (33/1 odds) This winner had just about all of the above: TSpot, $$, Bomb, KAT=9, BTL, HTR=1, Fr1 Dom, k2=1, and more. The MLO was 15/1 before scratches, the AML was just 8/1. Perhaps the best longshot play of the year for HTR members. June 14, SA-8, #2 Amarant; $89.40 (43/1 odds) $$, Bomb, KAT=7, Razor Sharp, Fr1-60. A 6 month layoff might have deterred some from betting the horse but it had been a proven winner in the past with 4 wins in 10 starts. The AML was just 12/1 on the 40/1 shot. Feb 13, GP-1, #7 Darnley Bay, $46.80 (22/1 odds) $$, Bomb, BTL, KAT=8, k2=1, PED=1 / PED 450+, Improve 4+, On Demand and more. This one paid over the 'cap' but not as much as many other longshot plays that could have chosen for the "best" list. The reason I include it here is because it was such a total standout in a relatively small field at GP this day. Its KAT and PED ratings were rated well above the other entrants. Nov 28, CD-6, #7 Covert Gem, $61.00 (29/1 odds) $$, Bomb, KAT=7, HTR=1, Razor, Fr1=1 and more. I included this one because it was a Wet-track winner. If the price is right, bet a multiple-longshot-flag horses on any surface.
HTR Report 5 Year in Review Fr1 = 1 Fr1 is the fundamental marker for bias detection within HTR. Top ranked (Fr1=1) longshots tend to win in bunches when the track is favorable to early speed. While the public often catches on to an obvious inside-early-speed bias on the Dirt, they will not always comprehend when Fr1=1 is on a roll because it is a lot more complicated than merely observing that horses are winning "wire-to-wire". This is particularly true with Routes, Poly and Turf races. Fr1=1 is an essential ingredient in dozens of factors, spot plays and longshot flags within HTR. TSpot / Turf Sprint MSpot $$ and $ Tour/Bomb HTR Consensus Fr1 Dominant / Advantage / Fr160 Buzz / KAT / Improve ratings During 2015, these factors worked in tandem with Fr1=1 to produce the highest ROI with at least 500 plays/year. The number of plays is shown in ( ). 1. MSpot (1666) 2. bx (625) 3. Razor Sharp (2064) 4. Fit & Ready (848) 5. KAT 9 or 10 (1455) 6. TSpot (1263) 7. Wk 85+ (2652) 8. Lone Luck (3026) 9. Claim Last (1478) 10. Buzz 3+ (4475) High Priced Fr1=1 Winners 2015 July 19, PID-1, #2 Oak Harbor, $104 (51/1 odds) Fr1=1, Fr1 Dominant, Lone $$, Luck. Good choice for Fr1=1 play of the year. The race was a mile on Poly. The horse had many negatives related to trainer and jockey and that lifted the odds. The horse won wire to wire. Nov 8, CD-5, #1 Purimeter, $91.80 (44/1 odds) Fr1=1, Fr160, Lone$$, Bomb. This is a classic HTR Fr1 bomb play in a dirt sprint. Did not go wire to wire and had never been on the lead in past starts. This is the type of Fr1=1 that fools the public. Nov. 17, PRX-7, #7 Up All Night, $89.00 (43/1 odds) Fr1=1, Fr1 Advantage, Lone$$, Luck. A small field of seven going 1-Mile on Dirt. The horse was a standout Fr1 play in a field with all the entrants showing weak Fr3. So why the high odds? Ridiculously heavy betting on the favorite raised the odds on all the other horses. Bombs Away: the highest odds Fr1=1 winners of the year were Mar 16, SUN-7 and May 25, GG-9. But both seem like flukes and it s hard to imagine a wager on them. A key observation with Fr1=1 bomb winners is that most are "Lone$$". This means they are the one and only "$$" play in their field and will also be marked "Price Play" on the Program screen.
HTR Report 6 Year in Review Razor Sharp Love him or hate him, trainer Bob Baffert is a master of the Razor Sharp workout. American Pharoah probably worked a dozen "Razors" during his historic 2015 campaign. Virtually all of Baffert's successful stakes horses have multiple Razor Sharp drills to their credit. Despite a high win rate with his Razor Sharp runners, Baffert has a poor ROI with them because his best horses are heavily bet. No question that Razor Sharp is a plum in the basket for HTR members seeking live longshots, fit horses and a tournament play. Razor Sharp workouts are not easily understood by the public. The designation in HTR has very specific criteria that goes beyond "bullet work". Most traditional handicappers do not know how to quantify workouts as part of their approach. They may observe them and attach significance to fast workouts, but they have trouble correlating them to upcoming race ability. That's why "Razor Sharp" is vital to us because it instantly defines 'fitness'. Fitness and potential improvement are the prime movers of value plays and longshot winners. Razor Sharp workouts are more powerful when they are part of an overall improvement resume for the horse. One or more Razor Sharp drills combined with other changes, such as Freshening or Equipment addition, will turnaround most thoroughbreds in a hurry. The three ratings listed below incorporate Razor Sharp into the formula. All of these are quickly spotted in the HTR-Tour program or can be utilized for spot plays with Robot3. Buzz (ideal = 3+) Improve (ideal = 3+) KAT (ideal = 7+) The Buzz highlights handicapping factors that portend a winning effort. The Improve rating is based solely on factors since the horse's last outing. The KAT was designed to combine the Buzz + Improve factors into a rating scaled from 1 to 10. In all cases, the higher the score the better and test results prove the significance of incrementally higher ratings in each case. Razor Sharp is one of the most important components of all these ratings. Let's look at the results with Razor Sharp when a strong Buzz, Improve or KAT ratings as well as the new TSpot and MSpot. Razor Sharp All Races Purse $10,000+ Year 2015 Item Plays Win ITM WROI AvgWin High I.V. All Razors 13840 18% 45% 0.91 $10.30 $138 1.47 Buzz 3+ 4380 25% 56% 0.88 $7.0 $135 2.02 Improve 3+ 6284 17% 43% 0.93 $11.20 $89 1.39 KAT 7+ 5391 23% 53% 0.95 $8.10 $89 1.89 TSpot 835 19% 43% 1.19 $12.30 $66 1.75 MSpot 1340 20% 47% 0.98 $10.00 $61 1.72 Analysis Betting every Razor Sharp play during 2015 (13,840 of them) resulted in a robust ROI of 0.91 with average winner paying over 4/1 odds. Consider that Razors tend to cluster in similar types of races, particularly at the major tracks with the highest purse levels. This means there were often two or more Razor Sharp horses entered in the same field which can water down the stats. A strong Buzz rating (3+) with Razor Sharp significantly raises the Win, ITM and I.V., but they were apparently too easy to spot and the public over bets them and the ROI drops a bit. The Improve rating (3+) and KAT (7+) promote a much better money return than the Buzz and with large sample sizes. TSpot and MSpot have excellent returns with Razor Sharp in tow.
HTR Report 7 Year in Review Razor Sharp Best of 2015 Let's spend another page on Razor Sharp owing to its power within HTR and then we'll end the article with a "best" list for 2015 Razor plays. The new "Top-10 List" from the Robot3 2016 version produces some fascinating insight into Razor Sharp and its durability and predictability as a true measure of thoroughbred fitness and readiness. Here are the Top-10 ROI returns with Razor Sharp during 2015. Razor Sharp Top-10 ROI List 2015 Factor Plays WROI bx 00296 1.46 Bad T+J 00232 1.28 TSpot 00835 1.19 Bad Fr3 01174 1.16 Fr1 60 Solo 00332 1.15 HTR=9+ 00648 1.12 Stretchout 01342 1.10 Fr1 60+ 00768 1.09 Appr Jock 00539 1.08 Bad Trainer 00829 1.08 K=9 00937 1.03 Analysis This is about as diverse and an unusual a Top-10 as you'll find for any factor in HTR. Notice that half the items are high negatives such as K=9, HTR=9, Bad Fr3, Bad T+J and Bad Trainer that return a heavy losing ROI on their own. So the power of a Razor Sharp workout as a definitive fitness indicator is apparent despite a horse that looks bad on paper otherwise. To produce a positive ROI with a low% factor such as K=9 (usually wins 3%) requires consistent hits with high priced winners. The Fr1 60 plays are extra productive with Razors as is TSpot. The Stretchout (Sprint to Route) is a real gem to pull from this list. Many bettors are hesitant to back horses extending to two-turns, but the bonus of the Razor drill meets the challenge. High Priced Razor Sharp Winners 2015 Sunday May 10, 2015 was the day to bet on any and all Razor Sharp horses. SA-9 BEL-5 GP-6 HST-8 HST-5 BEL-7 $137 winner $135 winner $36 winner $27 winner $17 winner $19 Place / 25/1 odds Below are a couple of others to look at for some additional insights into Razor Sharp. Dec 11, AQU-7, #6 Taoiseach, $101.50 (49/1 odds) This winner was a 2yr that had just broken its maiden. Razor Sharp works are fairly rare among 2yr, so when you spot one, pay attention as it is a sign of definite potential for the youngster. Oct 12, SA-8, #4 Macro Acess, $73.20 (35/1 odds) This horse had just been gelded. When you spot a Razor Sharp combined with an important change such as new gelding, L1, L2, bx, bo, you can assume the horse drilled the Razor as a result of the change. This is a highly positive improvement signal.
HTR Report 8 Handicapping with HTR TSpot 2015 TSpot is the first in a series of "packaged" spot plays to be presented in HTR. The idea is to combine a wide variety of race conditions with multiple HTR factors that target live longshots. Bundled together as one play, the TSpot pattern is virtually impossible to recognize though observation using conventional past-performances. The hope is that the public cannot duplicate the complex data parameters used and the ROI will remain strong for years. Let's take a look at how TSpot performed during 2015 and provide some stats to enhance your knowledge base about the rating. Let's start with a list of tracks that provided TSpot plays the best and worst ROI for the year. TSpot 2015 Best ROI (minimum 30 Plays) Track Plays WROI High HAW 0034 2.39 $92 DMR 0100 2.16 $95 TAM 0079 1.73 $63 WO 0103 1.47 $66 EVD 0037 1.41 $34 FG 0114 1.40 $45 SA 0208 1.39 $46 MTH 0112 1.14 $37 SAR 0089 1.03 $57 BEL 0132 1.01 $68 KEE 0042 0.98 $40 GP 0465 0.92 $98 TSpot 2015 Worst ROI (minimum 30 Plays ROI < 0.70) Track Plays TSpot/WROI High MNR 0095 0.47 $11 PIM 0073 0.53 $13 GG 0147 0.55 $22 IND 0096 0.56 $34 AQU 0058 0.58 $14 CD 0062 0.61 $24 LRL 0158 0.61 $35 HOU 0049 0.63 $15 Analysis TSpot had a tremendous year in Southern California (SA and DMR) and a terrible run at the two Maryland tracks (PIM and LRL). Overall, combining all the top Turf courses in North America, TSpot runners had an excellent showing. The tracks with the lowest ROI were devoid of any big bombs or a consistent number of winners paying over $30. Positive ROI with TSpot is absolutely dependent on hitting a series of winners paying $30 or more. At most tracks, this was the reality. At a few tracks though, the chalk are winning most of the Turf races and TSpot gets left out in the cold and suffers through longs losing streaks. Days of the Week Interesting that TSpot excels on Sat-Sun-Mon race dates and does much worse on the other four weekdays. Many of the Mondays were holidays that carded lots of Turf races at major tracks. The weekends and holidays were better for TSpot and that may be an indicator of higher quality, bigger fields and more competitive turf races scheduled on those dates.
HTR Report 9 Handicapping with HTR TSpot 2015 The tradeoff with a power play such as TSpot is that we have to deal with low Win percentage and long losing streaks. TSpot plays resulted in a few terrible months during 2015, but also had some awesome streaks during other periods. Those of you that research diligently with Robot3, you understand the conundrum that is faced by horseplayers in this era = to achieve an ROI with a 5% profit or more requires betting on horses with relatively low probability of winning and high odds. Let's see if we can improve TSpot win rate while holding a positive ROI. Here are the factors in HTR that combined well with TSpot to raise the Win%. TSpot 2015 Purse $10,000+ Turf Only Item Plays Win WROI High Any TSpot 3230 15% 0.97 $98 K110+ 0084 30% 1.01 $13 K=1 0324 29% 1.00 $21 AML=1 0306 26% 0.96 $16 MSpot 0211 20% 1.31 $68 Razor Sharp 0847 19% 1.18 $66 Analysis TSpot hit a nasty slump during the last few weeks of 2015 and it really hurt the ROI and Win% for the year dropping it to 15% Wins and below break-even profit. That's not an unusual pattern for late November and December though as Turf courses are depleted and fewer tracks are running on grass. Anytime there is a higher rate of favorites winning on Turf, the TSpot will suffer. The win rate is increased dramatically with low odds horses identified with K=1, K110+ and the AML favorite, but profits are tough to squeeze out despite doubling the win percentage. Razor Sharp is the prime mover for TSpot. There were over 840 plays for the year and almost 20% winners with a strong ROI (1.18 or +18%). There are a few MSpot + TSpot to be found throughout the year (Maiden Turf) and they are dynamite for value. Top-5 Highest Paying TSpot Winners During 2015 (Purse $10,000+) 1. Jan 3, GP-6 #8 Noble Prince $98.20 2. Sep 7, DMR-3 #3 No Comparison $95.40 3. Oct 23, HAW-5 #10 Inguagiata $92.40 4. Oct 21, BEL-6 #4 On Tenterhooks $68.00 5. Jul 26, WO-6 #2 Solemn Tribute $66.10 TSpot / MSpot Comparison 2015 Below is a comparison of some key stats with TSpot and MSpot side by side. MSpot discussion follows on the next page. TSpot and MSpot 2015 Purse $10,000+ Statistic TSpot MSpot Plays 3230 4511 Win 15% 19% ITM 40% 46% WROI 0.97 1.04 AvgWin $12.90 $11.10 PROI 0.92 0.90 High $98 $120 I.V. 1.34 1.60
HTR Report 10 Handicapping with HTR MSpot MSpot is new for 2016 and none of us had access to the rating during the year 2015 so we'll dispense with the "best" list but look back at the general results to learn more about it. MSpot is the maiden-race version of TSpot, but it is even more complicated than TSpot because of the huge diversity in maiden race conditions. Reviewing the statistics on the bottom of page-9, notice that the play count is much higher with MSpot than with TSpot. That's because MSpot has access to far more races in the maiden realm. In fact, there are quite a few plays with MSpot with purse less than $10,000, but I did not record that information here because most of us don't bet on them. MSpot produces a higher Win% and ROI than TSpot overall. That's impressive considering the play count is far larger. The advantage to TSpot is that its winners pay big most of the time and there are more bombs. MSpot is more consistent, less volatile to losing streaks, but the big bombs are not as plentiful. MSpot is also a highly stable rating in terms of race conditions. Maiden Claimers do as well as MSW and there is little difference in results between the various distance/surface/age/sex/state-bred categories. Let's look over a list of key ratings in HTR that enhance MSpot. Lone $$ / $$ Most maiden fields have more than 8 horses entered and that usually results in multiple "$$" plays. Any and all "$$" do well with MSpot (1764 Plays, 15% Win, 1.09 ROI), but if there is a single "$$" in the race, or a Lone $$, then the results are even better (912, 16%, 1.15). MLO Favorites Looking for a single in the Pick4/5/6 sequence? We may not know who the actual favorite will be when making those bets early, but you will know who the MLO Favorite is. If the MLO choice has "MSpot" tagged to it, they win a whopping 43% of the time. Fr1=1, Fr2=1, Fr3=1 Top ranked incremental velocity ratings are fundamental to the success of MSpot. All three of them produce excellent results. Any of the Fr1 special ratings (Fr1 Dom, Fr1 60, Fr1 Adv.) are also strong profit tandems with MSpot, and longshots are plentiful. HTR=1 You can't go wrong making bets on horses that combine MSpot and the venerable HTR=1. The Win rate is over 30% and the ROI is strong across the board. There is no downside. FTS / 2TS With any general test sample, FTS lose in droves and cause massive bankroll losses. But if they are tagged with MSpot, they win a strong 16% of their races and break-even ROI. We find very similar results with 2TS (18%, 0.98). Fillies Many handicappers have taught themselves to pass on maiden filly races. The conventional wisdom has always been that they are impossible chaotic races that defy logic. No wonder the ROI is higher with MSpot with fillies. Male and Female maidens win at the same 19% rate with MSpot, yet the Females show a higher ROI.
HTR Report 11 Tournament Strategy Tournament Time / Saturday for the Money Some of you will be reading this prior to leaving for Vegas for the NHC Championship. Others can absorb the information below and prepare for almost any contest that takes place on a Saturday. Why a single day of the week for the focus here? Whether it is a live tournament or an online contest, Saturday is when the money is made. It is typically the final day of any major live tournament and the day chosen by most online sites for their key qualifiers and biggest prize money events. It is the day you need to master to become a tournament ace. The major racing circuits in North America are usually featured in the Saturday contests. Let's look at the list of tracks analyzed and no others were used in this testing: DMR and SA; AQU, BEL, SAR; GP, GPW (CRC) and TAM; KEE, ELP and CD; FG and LAD; AP and HAW; LRL and PIM and finally MTH and WO. To give you an edge and pump you up for the tournaments, let's look over the best longshot producers in HTR at the major tracks during Saturday action. Fr1 60 / Fr1 Bias Fr1-60 is absolutely my favorite longshot angle on Saturdays. If you are unaware of what Fr1-60 entails, then read the 2012 Seminar E-Book or the HTR-Pedia. Inherent talent is required to run a 60.00 fps Fr1 or faster and there is a greater tendency for these horses to show up on the weekends when the purses are higher. The reason Fr1-60 produces surprising value is because it is so unique to HTR and cannot be easily deciphered by reading past-performances. Any top-ranked Fr1 plays can get on a roll on Saturdays as well. Often the dirt track is tighter after a day or two of racing earlier in the week and has been rolled with the tractors to produce a more favorable surface for early speed. Any environmental changes can promote a sudden early speed or inside bias too. These include rain (sealed track), hot weather or wind. Pay attention to a possible Fr1 bias by watching the early races on each Saturday card. Claimed Last This is a great value angle to look for during a tournament. A trainer claimed the horse from its last start and now returns it to race on a Saturday. That is a sign of confidence as Saturday cards at major tracks are very competitive. Hopefully there will be one or more other changes in since the claim. Blinkers off (bx), Razor Sharp and a switch to Hot Jockey are excellent sign posts that the trainer is determined to make good on the investment. High scores with the Improve rating (3+) or KAT (7+) will signal that major improvement is pending. Lone $$ We talked about this one earlier in relation to the MSpot, but it is effective on Saturdays at major tracks for flagging a price play from any race. The average winner paid almost $20, but the Win rate hovers around 10%, so it is often a bomb throw. The more HTR goodies that are related to the "$$" horse, the better. Many Fr1=1 plays will have this designation. KAT Rating Saturday cards at the top tracks will feature promising youngsters entered in quality maiden, allowance and stakes races. A strong KAT score (7+) will point out those most likely to move forward. During 2015, KAT=10, the highest KAT score, returned a poor ROI on Saturdays while KAT=9 returned a nice profit. Many KAT=10 are just too obvious and over bet. TSpot and MSpot Both tagged a lot of 'cap' horses on Saturday at the major tracks. TSpot produced a profitable ROI for Win and Place catching many live Turf longshots on the competitive Saturday cards.
HTR Report 12 Announcements and Reminders NHC 2015 - High Five to Our HTR Qualifiers Congrats to our members qualified for the NHC Championship tournament! We have over 20 HTR subscribers ready to compete at the TI in Vegas from Jan 28-30. Good vibes to all our players and we hope you catch lightening this time. If you have news or results to share, please post on our Tournament forum. HTR-Pedia The 2016 Pedia update adds the "TSpot" and "MSpot" to the topic chapters. Software Updates By the time you read this, all of our installation packages will be ready with the latest January 2016 updates for each program == HTR2, HTR-Tour, MaxVel, and Robot3. I'm still working on the HTR-Tablet update and it will be updated for the next newsletter cycle. HTR Handicapping Tech & Research Voicemail: 714-366-1HTR Email: kmsoft@earthlink.net HTR website (software updates): www.htr2.com HTR Report is an on-line newsletter and is published bi-monthly, it is available in the HTR Subscriber Zone around the 15 th of the month. Monthly subscribers can view the current newsletter for no charge online, Adobe Reader software (free) required. Past issues over a year old are available in our website archive library. Products and services from KM Software HTR Unlimited Download: $119/mo unlimited access, all tracks. HTR Software Complimentary, no fee for updates. Bi-Monthly HTR Newsletter Current Issue is included with monthly subscription for members only. Archives of Past Issues are available on the HTR2.com website.