californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Thursday, June 21, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Well, we killed it on Sunday, didn t we? Eight of ten winners, including the first six races! That enabled you guys/gals to hit a $1467 Pick 5, among other things, for a relatively inexpensive wager. I know a number of you hit that Pick 5, because you told me so. By the way, I love to hear of your successes, feel free to drop me a line so that I can join in the celebratory aura. I reconnoitered the results, and that doggone rest angle seems to have reared its head again. Keep looking at that angle and judge accordingly. As for me, I am practically 100% convinced that a horse racing on short rest, which I define as less than 28 days, has an uphill climb (no pun intended). Put this angle into your handicapping quiver, please. Let s start looking more closely at this angle. Question for you to ponder: Does an immortal (Belmont track announcer Larry Collmus s excited utterance at the end of The Belmont) horse like Justify know that his mission is to beat the pack to the wire, such that he recognizes the win and enjoys it, OR does he just detest getting dirt in his face, propelling him to victory? Horsecallany It is said by the horse whisperers that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. P.S.1 Naturally, I do realize that horses I label as well-rested or the like could possibly be coming off an injury or ailment. However, those many of you who follow the race results closely and go back and reconnoiter as I do also recognize that there is a definite connection between rest, especially lack thereof, and ultimate performance, which factor statistically seems to mitigate against, though not necessarily prevent a win.
P.S. 2 The rest factor in thoroughbred racing may mean more than we think for example, vis-a-vis The Belmont, on paper Gronwkowsi did not look good at all to me yet he finished second, in his U.S. debut, with that wild, huge animated intoxicated crowd screaming at him, less than two lengths behind Justify. Remember, he raced on about ten weeks rest, while the maximum rest for anyone else in the field was 35 days. SPECIAL PROJECTS (reprised, new pricing) I just got a special project for Gulfstream for Sunday s race card. I have decided to reduce my price for any special project from $35 to $30. If any of you happens to be going to a track other than our home tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day s races at the foreign track, if you give me a few days notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The only problem is, since it will probably be a one-off analysis (i.e., you will almost certainly be the only buyer) I would have to charge you $30. Which works out to just about minimum wage for me since I will spend at least four-five hours handicapping and writing, more time proportionately if it is a twelve- race day like Gulfstream often has. Anyway I like to see how my expertise works in other locations, so I am willing to take this kind of thing occasionally on if my schedule allows. Obviously this applies equally if you are simply choosing to BET A FOREIGN TRACK ON- LINE for some reason and want a second opinion. The Anatomy of a Likeable Longshot - Soi Phet I was asked what made you select Soi Phet as a Likeable Longshot? As you know, that horse was my Likeable Longshot in the 9 th race on the 20 th of May and he paid $ 96.40 for a two dollar bet that Sunday. First, I have a good wagering history with him (he has earned me money). He was moving down precipitously out of graded competition. His string of workouts was impressive still for a ten year old horse. He closes out well. And, his average
Beyer rating for races from 2017 to the present (I don t go too far back in the PP s, recent is most relevant as a horse can decline fast, like an NFL running back) was terrific: 90. Frankly, looking at all of that, I don t know what the odds maker/computer was thinking: he was a serious overlay. Thank you odds maker!!! Horsecellany II--- Some Basic Horsie Math/Statistics Keep in mind that each discrete horse race on a race card is an independent event, in that the winner of one race has no tangible effect on the winner of another race. (For this reason, I never state a so-called Best Bet of the day, which makes no sense to me, as we handicappers do not rate a horse in one race against a horse in another.) Given, that, here are the horsie statistics that we need to keep in mind when wagering horizontally. For the purposes of this demonstration, and for simplicity s sake, let us assume there are ten races, and each race has exactly eight entries. The following is the number of possible outcomes for two races up to eight races: Two races- Daily Double= 8 2, 64 Three races- 8 3, 512 Four races- Pick 4= 8 4, 4,096 Five races- Pick 5= 8 5, 32,768 Six races- Pick 6= 8 6, 262,144 (this is why you should never make that bet!) Seven races- 8 7, 2,097,152 Eight races, like californiawinning.com successfully handicapped on Monday: 8 8, 16,777,216 At least two essential, critical points arise out of this exercise. As for the eight races that californiawinning.com correctly predicted the winners of, there were 16,277,216 possible outcomes. Yet, we hit the mark by naming a grand total of 18 horses. Pretty good aim, huh?
Next point: now we see how hard it is even to hit either the Pick 4 (4,096 possible outcomes) or Pick 5 (32,768 possible outcomes). Yet, californiawinning.com accurately predicts both the Pick 4 and Pick 5 with some regularity. Note: Post time today is 12:30 pm PDT and 3:30 pm EDT. Thursday, June 21, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you.
Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLWING ARE TODAY S FREE RACE ANALYSES: RACES 2, 3, 4 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in the free version of californiawinning.com s selections. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!!
TODAY S FREE RACES: RACES 2, 3, 4 RACE 2: Rested Studly Perfection is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the M/L favorite, as he moves down class-wise, has won and hit the board twice in three efforts at RD, his works are very encouraging and he will vie. On the Rocks also moves down a tad, he won his sole effort at RD here fourteen months ago, he will be in the hunt. Dare to Enter is one of four entries with a win at RD, which came here, and he has hi the board in five of six at RD, his connections are good but the rest is awfully short, would seem to render a win here more difficult. RACE 3: This is a true maiden of maidens race, with only one entry having actually raced rather inauspiciously (but see below re: Watch Me Burn) Courteous carries HOF rider Mike Smith (a la Triple Crown, Justify, etc.) and has a top trainer, the filly also sports a series of transcendent works, such as a bullet five furlongs @ 1:00 flat a week ago, that kind of workout so close to race time usually portends a great race, and she is the narrow favorite. True Validity shows very good works and has connections that are quite enviable. She Rocks the Look has sublime connections herself, and shows a series of good works, she could surprise. Likeable Longshot: (there is one for this race, and there are others today, see below on how to view them.thank you) RACE 4: Heloise suffered a not so good debut at sprint distance here, largely due to a bad trip, but once again she carries that talented apprentice with great lineage and a hefty seven-pound weight allowance (collectively, the Espinoza parallax ), she looks like serious competition to me. Tengs Rhythm is the M/L favorite, as she has hit the board in all four lifetime races, albeit sprints, her connections and works are decent and she is good enough to battle in this bland field. Quizlet (M/L 12/1) is one of three horses who have raced at route distances, albeit on the grass just like the other two, her rider, like Heloise s,
is allowed a seven-pound weight allowance, akin to getting a head start in the race. ***** ***** californiawinning.com all rights reserved To see the rest of today s analysis---including the all-important Likeable Longshots --- go to Today s Full Race Card at californiawinning.com and click the $2 button, and use your debit or credit card, or your PayPal account to pay $2, or, if you have a PayPal account, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment there (it s easier) OR Better yet, why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they don t give you a graded handicap, and its less than what the touts charged for their little blue card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay a mere $20 through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Thanks very much. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?