Walkability The Pathway to Atlanta s Future Growth April 19, 2017 1
Walkability The Pathway to Atlanta s Future Growth This report was prepared by the ULI Atlanta s Livable Communities Council Working Group on Walk-UPS in October 2015. Marc Pollack, Chair Ken Bleakly Sharon Gay Bob Hughes Noel Khalil Ray Kimsey Cheri Morris Malaika Rivers John Sibley Matt Smith Jim Stokes Scott Selig Monte Wilson Research by Geoff Koski 2
Panelists Moderator: Jonathan Gelber, AICP, Senior Consultant, Bleakly Advisory Group Panelists: Ken Bleakly, AICP, President, Bleakly Advisory Group Terry Morris, President, Morris & Fellows Real Estate Services Brantley Day, AICP, Director of Community Development, City of Woodstock 3
ULI Atlanta is a district council of the national Urban Land Institute. ULI is a non-profit education and resource group supported by a diverse membership base of experts. Their mission is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities worldwide. ULI Atlanta 800+ members, One of the largest and most active district worldwide ULI. Offering 20 high-quality educational programs a year Technical Advisory Panels stocked with expert members who advise local communities. 4
LIVABLE COMMUNITIES COALITION Originally established in 2005 by Metro Atlanta Chamber, moved to ULI in 2013. Spin-off of the Metro Atlanta Chamber s Quality Growth Task Force, 50 diverse from local governments, the state legislature, businesses, developers, universities, and civic and environmental groups. LCC has worked to support greater density, walkability, housing choices and mixed-use developments in appropriate regional and transportation centers. LCC is focused on TOD and walkable communities. The Livable Communities Council's (LCC) mission Improve metro Atlanta s quality of life through smart growth Focus on Transit Oriented Development (TOD) and walkable communities. Play an explicit role in advising on development around existing and future transit Make tangible impacts on land use. 5
Walkability: The Planner s Perspective 6
Walkability: The Other Perspectives Developers Property Owners Commercial Tenants Brokers Loan Officers Bankers The people who control most of the land. The people who control most of the money. 7
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What is Walkability? Jeff Speck, in Walkable City, defines four principles of Walkablilty: Useful most aspects of daily life are located close at hand and organized in a way that walking serves them well Safe means that the street has been designed to give pedestrians and bicyclists a fighting chance... they must not only be safe but feel safe Comfortable buildings and landscape shape urban streets into outdoor living rooms in contrast to wide open spaces Interesting sidewalks are lined by unique buildings with friendly faces and signs of humanity abound. These ideas are simple in concept but challenging in execution. The true potential of walkability is only achieved by getting all four principles working in unison. 9
Why is Walkablity important? It seems like planning jargon, but it is far more significant: Walkability is a development pattern that is already redefining our downtowns, town centers, and commercial districts 10
Why is Walkablity important? Walkability capitalizes on dramatic demographic Capitalizes and generational dramatic demographic changes and generational changes; 11
Why is Walkablity important? Walkability provides lifestyle and health benefits to its participants 12
Why is Walkablity important? Walkability generates the higher rents and development values that off-set higher development costs 13
Why is Walkablity important? Walkability accelerates growth in local government revenues 14
Why is Walkablity important? Walkability creates efficiencies in providing local services. 15
Walkability has become the Dominant Development Pattern In 2012 Christopher Leinberger, a analyzed the presence of Walkable Urban Places or WalkUPs From 1992-2000, 14% of all development in metro Atlanta was in WalkUPs. 2001 to 2008: just 26% 2009 to 2013 : 60% of all development in metro Atlanta was in WalkUPs. 16
Age 60+ Age 30-59 Age 0-29 Younger Generations will Continue to Drive Demand Demographics = Destiny Long-term future real estate demand from younger generations will continue The youngest generation (Age 0-25) comprises 1/3 of the population, as national birth rates continue to exceed those for Gen X. Atlanta is unique in that Gen X has an outsized influence here due to 1990s and 2000s inmigration. Current Population by Age USA & Atlanta Metro Region Kids - Late Millennials First Millennials - Gen X Boomers ATL USA ATL USA ATL USA Atlanta USA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Source: US Census, American Community Survey 17
Nationwide: 70% place a high value on walkability when choosing a new community 61% would accept a smaller home in exchange for a shorter commute. 54% of Americans prefer three or more community attributes associated with compact development Source: America in 2013: A ULI Survey 18
24% 23% 27% 34% Generational Preferences for Compact Communities Millennials (Gen Y) and Baby Boomers state higher preference for living in a compact, walkable community. Compact Community Attributes: Shorter commute/smaller home Close to mix of shops Mix of incomes Public transportation options Mix of homes 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Preference for compact community attributes Gen Y (18-34) Gen X (35-47) Baby boomers (48-66) Silent generation (67+) Source: America in 2013: A ULI Survey 19
Atlanta s TOD Supply Atlanta s Supply of Transit-Oriented Development lags National Peers Fewer households near Transit Less density around transit Atlanta likely undersupplied by 12,500-58,000 TOD Households Equivalent to 300 1,400 Acres @ 40/Ac Metro Area % of HH near Transit Avg HHs per Station Area Washington DC 10.6% 5,561 San Francisco 8.6 % 3,371 Atlanta 6.9% 1,388 Based on data from the Center for Neighborhood Technology 20
Built Environment Impacts Lifestyle The lack of walkable supply suppresses demonstrated demand, but not LATENT demand. Less of walkable infrastructure Less housing within walkable infrastructure. Less access to transit 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% % Walk, Bike, Transit to Work, by Age Cohort Non-car transport is far less prevalent in Atlanta (shown in orange) than in peer cities. 0.0% 16-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+ USA Atlanta Boston DC Source: US Census, 2012 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Metro Area MSA Data 21
Do the Math: The Walkability Premium Pricing for office, retail, for-sale and rental housing are up to 50% higher in walkable locations in Atlanta than non-walkable locations. The Atlanta Region has 3.4 Billion SF of Real estate. 22
$ / Sq. Foot Monthly Rent Do the Math: The Walkability Premium The Walkability Premium in Atlanta In 2013 Bleakly collected data on 35 newer apartment projects in the Central Perimeter, Brookhaven, Buckhead, North Midtown areas Very walkable locations, with most errands able to be accomplished on foot, achieve 6% higher rents on a Square foot average to those comparable projects in car dependent and somewhat walkable locations. Similar research in Gwinnett and DeKalb showed a premium of 15% to 50%. $1.44 $1.43 $1.42 $1.41 $1.40 $1.39 $1.38 $1.37 Comparable Monthly Rents $/SF, by Walkability Car Dependent/Somewhat Walkable Very Walkable Walk Score: 48-69 Walk Score: 70-89 Source: Bleakly Advisory Group 23
Do the Math: The Walkability Premium Apartment Rent Premium Compared to Local Market Average Emory Point TOWN: Brookhaven Perimeter Place 182% 157% 133% Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, 2014 24
Do the Math: The Walkability Premium 2 units to the acre Higher unit values (demand-driven) x Higher densities (demand-driven) = Much higher overall values, property values, & tax revenue. 4 units to the acre 25
Do the Math: Property Value Comparison Case 1: Emory Point & Post LaVista @ Briarcliff 26
Do the Math: Property Value Comparison Higher- Density Vertical Mixed Use Emory Point 7.73 Acres 443 Apartments Ground-Level Retail Suburban- Density Horizontal Multi Use LaVista @ Briarcliff 17.98 Acres 888 Apartments Starbucks & Whole Foods 27
Do the Math: Property Value Comparison Higher- Density Vertical Mixed Use Emory Point Taxable Value: $104,776,800 $13,554,567/Acre 2015 Taxes /Acre $246,187 Suburban- Density Horizontal Multi Use LaVista @ Briarcliff Taxable Value: $92,611,490 $5,150,806/Acre 2015 Taxes Acre: $94,520 28
Do the Math: Property Value Comparison Case 2: Downtown Woodstock & The Outlet Shoppes at Atlanta 29
Do the Math: Property Value Comparison Walkable Downtown District Downtown Woodstock 16.18 Acres 150 Parcels 3.4 Acre Park Commercial District Outlet Center The Outlet Shoppes at Atlanta 48.81 Acres 370,000 SF 1,781 Parking Spaces 30
Do the Math: Property Value Comparison Walkable Downtown District Downtown Woodstock Taxable Value: $23,627,960 $1,460,409/Acre Property tax/acre: $31,000 Outlet Center The Outlet Shoppes at Atlanta Taxable Value: $13,381,648 $274,158/Acre Property tax/acre $6,000 31
Walkability: How does your community rank? 32
Thank You & Contact Info Moderator: Jonathan Gelber, AICP, Senior Consultant, Bleakly Advisory Group Panelists: jonathan@blagroup.com Ken Bleakly, AICP, President, Bleakly Advisory Group ken@blagroup.com Terry Morris, President, Morris & Fellows Real Estate Services Terry.Morris@morrisandfellows.com Brantley Day, AICP, Director of Community Development, City of Woodstock bday@woodstockga.gov 33