The Economic Outlook The Fall Forum Darrin Webb, State Economist University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning dwebb@mississippi.edu (601)432 6556 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 1
Growth In Real GDP 2.4% 2.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 2.2% 1.8% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.2% 3.1% 0.7% 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 2
112 Index of Coincident Indicators 110 108 Index 2004=100 106 104 102 100 98 96 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 The Mississippi Index of Coincident Indicators reflects economic conditions existing in a given month. The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and reindexed to 2004. The Index is based on changes in nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, average manufacturing workweek length and wage and salary disbursements. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 3
Regional Comparison of August Coincident Index Percentage Growth Since Recession Trough 140.0% 130.0% 120.0% 110.0% 116.5% 115.6% 124.0% 127.1% 121.4% 112.0% 114.6% 125.3% 116.9% 130.5% 133.5% 131.2% 121.9% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% US September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 4
6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Annual Growth in Real GDP for SE States 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% Avg. Annual Growth in Nonfarm Employment for SE States 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 5
and US Employment Growth Y/Y % Change by Month 4.0% 3.0% US 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 6
2.74% CA 3.41% OR 3.14% WA --0.06% AK 2.63% NV 3.38% ID 2.88% AZ 3.30% UT Nonfarm Employment January August 2015 2016 0.51% MT --3.06% WY 0.47% NM 2.14% HI 2.76% CO --3.53% ND 1.64% SD 1.30% NE 1.57% --0.19% KS --0.35% 1.28% MN U.S. Average 1.81% Decline Between 0% and 1.0% Between 1.0% and 2.25% Greater than 2.25% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 7 1.40% IA 0.87% MO 2.02% --0.81% 1.52% WI 0.88% IL 1.16% 1.37% IN MI 2.17% 2.71% 0.98% 1.53% 1.50% OH 2.95% -0.41% WV 1.68% VT 2.49% 3.21% 1.01% PA 2.19% VA 2.13% 1.75% NH 1.33% NY 0.73% ME 1.66% NJ 2.89% DE 2.00% MD 1.85% MA 1.16% RI 0.86% CT
Nonfarm Employment 1,200 1,150 1,161.8 May 00 1,161.8 Feb 08 1,147.5 Aug 16 Thousands 1,100 1,050 1,000 1,110.9 Jun 03 1,084.2 Jan 10 950 900 850 800 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 8
Where are the Jobs? Mississippi has added an average 13,100 jobs in 2016 over 2015 Trade, Transportation & Utlities Leisure & Hospitality Government Education & Health Services Manufacturing Construction Information Other Services Financial Activities Mining and logging Professional & Business Services 2,138 925 938 137 150 563 2,125 2,837 2,675 4,213 4,975 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 9
Jobs Gained (Lost) By County 2015 2016* 32 Counties Lost Employment 49 Counties Gained Employment 1 County Saw No Change Greater than 200 Loss Less than 200 Loss No Change Less than 200 Gained Greater than 200 Gained * The average employment for the January to July period is compared for both years. -39 Adams -14 Wilkinson -541 Warren -49 Claiborne 1,566 Tunica -37-24 Coahoma Quitman 269 Bolivar 17 Sunflower -526 Leflore -349 Washington 13 Sharkey -17 Issaquena -20 Jefferson -30 Franklin 14 Amite -103 Humphreys 96 Yazoo 903 Madison 1,447 Hinds 116 Copiah 89 Lincoln 50 Tallahatchie 0 Pike 1,729 De Soto -40 Carroll -7 Holmes 231 Tate 90 Panola 50 Simpson 23 Yalobusha -1-74 154 Benton Marshall Tippah -83 Attala -60 Leake 37 Smith -34 19 Covington 31 Jefferson Lawrence Davis 17-83 Marion Walthall -16 Pearl River -53 Hancock -40 Calhoun 104 Grenada -56 11 Webster Montgomery 601 Rankin 1,037 Lafayette 120 Scott 113 Choctaw 39 Chickasaw 67 Winston 271 Neshoba -81 Newton -113 Jasper -294 Jones 517 Union 497 Pontotoc 103 Stone 571 Harrison 110 Clay 194 Oktibbeha 497 834 193 Lamar ForrestPerry 37 Alcorn -13 Prentiss 1,656 Lee 19 Monroe 321 Kemper -224 Lauderdale -200 Wayne 156 Lowndes 61 Noxubee -21 Clarke 4 Greene 77 George -289 Jackson 233 Tishomingo 189 Itawamba September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 10
Which counties are back to their pre recession level? Percentage of Jobs Gained (Lost) By County 2007 2015* Loss Gain -15% Adams -21% Wilkinson -6% Warren -15% Claiborne 7% Tunica -10% -30% Coahoma Quitman -13% Bolivar -23% Sunflower -26% Leflore -19% Washington -32% Sharkey -46% Issaquena -19% Jefferson -6% Franklin -13% Amite -46% Humphreys -8% Yazoo 13% Madison -7% Hinds -6% Copiah 1% Lincoln -2% Tallahatchie -5% Pike 8% De Soto -4% Simpson 6% -5% 4% Benton Marshall Tippah -4% Attala -2% Leake -22% -10% Covington -7% Jefferson Lawrence Davis 3% Calhoun.09% Grenada 18% -4% Webster Montgomery -32% Carroll -15% Holmes 0.29% Tate -10% Panola 0.1% Rankin -5% Yalobusha -3% -13% Marion Walthall 10% Lafayette -1% Scott 1% Smith 11% Choctaw -0.39% Chickasaw -12% Winston -24% Neshoba -8% Newton -16% Jasper -15% Jones 14% Union 7% Pontotoc 8% Clay 14% Oktibbeha 20% -11% -17% Lamar ForrestPerry 4% Alcorn 1% Prentiss 7% Lee -4% Monroe -14% Kemper -4% Lauderdale -13% Wayne -3% Lowndes 3% Noxubee -14% Clarke -11% Greene 3% Tishomingo 4% Itawamba * The average employment is compared for both years. 5% Pearl River 1% Hancock -18% Stone -2% Harrison -3% George -2% Jackson September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 11
40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Unemployment Claims Three Month Moving Average 250 200 150 100 50 - Initial Unemployment Claims Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Continued Unemployment Claims September 2016 Initial Claims Continued Claims University Research Center, IHL 12
Unemployment Stats 15,000 10,000 5,000 (5,000) (10,000) Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed (seeking employment) Unemployment rate = Share of Labor force that is unemployed (15,000) Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Monthly Chg in Labor Force Monthly Chg in Employment Unemployment rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 13
Index of Leading Indicators 115 110 Index 2004=100 105 100 95 90 85 80 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 The Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators reflects economic conditions expected for the coming months. The index is constructed by the University Research Center and indexed to 2004. There are 7 components of the Index: Initial Unemployment Claims; Income Tax Withholdings; Value of Residential Building Permits; MFG Employment Intensity Index, ISM Index of US MFG Activity; US Consumer Expectations Index and US Retail Sales. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 14
Year Over Year Growth in Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments: Mississippi by Quarter 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Gray Areas Represent National Recessions. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 15
Mississippi Income Tax Withholdings Growth Over Prior Year, Inflation Adjusted 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 9.7% 8.7% 8.9% 8.3% 8.3% 8.0% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 4.9% 5.2% 4.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 3.8% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 16
Per Capita Income $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US US Gap September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 17
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Mississippi Sales Tax Transfers to the General Fund by CY Growth Over Prior Year, Inflation Adjusted 2.8% 1.8% 6.2% 3.6% 1.0% 1.6% 0.4% 5.3% 8.6% 2016* reflects growth through August over Prior year. 6.2% 10.4% 1.3% 2.3% 7.7% 2.0% 3.3% Growth has been modest through the recovery, and was especially anemic in 2015. While growth has improved in 2016, it remains low. 1.7% 2.5% 1.8% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 0.1% 1.3% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 18
260.0 240.0 Manufacturing Employment and Hours Worked WW Length Employment 44 43 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 42 41 40 39 38 37 100.0 36 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Employment, Thousands Hours Worked, 3Mmonth Moving Average September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 19
Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Manufacturing Earnings in Mississippi $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 20
Gaming Revenue, Adjusted for Inflation Millions of 2004 Dollars $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 0.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coast River If current growth is maintained % CHG 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 21
Housing Starts US and 2,500,000 18,000 16,000 2,000,000 14,000 1,500,000 12,000 10,000 1,000,000 8,000 6,000 500,000 4,000 0 US (Left Axis) (Right Axis) 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 22
Growth In Real GDP Historical and University Research Center Projections 8.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 2.2% 5.4% 4.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.8% 2.7% 1.2% 3.1% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.3% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 23
Growth In Nonfarm Employment Historical and University Research Center Projections 2.0% 0.6% 0.8% 2.0% 0.1% 2.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 5.3% 0.5% 4.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 24
Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist dwebb@mississippi.edu (601)432 6556 To subscribe to our publications, including Mississippi s Business and The Mississippi Outlook email Janna Taylor at jtaylor@mississippi.edu. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 25