GEARY BRT SIMULATION VISSIM Calibration and Existing Conditions Results

GEARY BRT SIMULATION VISSIM Calibration and Existing Conditions Results Geary BRT Citizens Advisory Committee February 17, 2011 www.gearybrt.org

Presentation Objectives 1. Overview of modeling process 2. Describe calibration/validation process 3. Present calibration/validation results 4. Answer questions Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 2

Overview of Modeling Process Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 3

Model Development Process and Calibration Build model based on collected and observed data Geometry Signal timing Traffic volumes Pedestrian/bicycle volumes Transit routes On-street parking Schedule reliability Alighting/boardings Then adjust model parameters to approximate observed conditions Buses pulling into bays Vehicles yielding to buses Vehicle queues / congested areas Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 4

Transit Operating Speeds Entire Corridor (Transbay Terminal to 48 th Avenue) Daily Average Speed (mph) PM Peak Average Speed (mph) EB WB EB WB 38 8.1 8.4 7.2 8.1 38L 9.0 8.7 8.6 8.3 Source: SFMTA, 2007 APC Data Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 5

Geary Study Simulation Network Masonic Fillmore Laguna Divisadero Ave. St. St.nd///Ave. Webster Presidio Gough St. St. Ave. Park 22 Presidio Blvd.St. Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 6

Calibration and Validation Process Average bus and auto travel times* Average bus and auto volumes* Are vehicle queues/congestion consistent with observations? Link volumes for more than 85% of cases meet the following criteria: Average travel times within 15% - For volumes less than 700vph, within 100vph - For volumes between 700 and 2,700vph, within 15% - For volumes greater than 2,700vph, within 400vph (or 1min, if higher) for more than 85% of measured travel time Link volumes for more than 85% of cases have a GEH statistic less than 5 (a measure of how well the model replicates actual conditions) paths Sum of link volumes within 5% Sum of link volumes have a GEH statistic less than 4 * Caltrans and the FHWA suggest the following validation criteria: (Guidelines for Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software, California Department of Transportation, 2002; Volume III - Guidelines for Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software, Federal Highway Administration, 2003). Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 7

Calibration and Validation Process Average bus and auto travel times* Average bus and auto volumes* Are vehicle queues/congestion consistent with observations? Average travel times within 15% (or 1min, if higher) for more than 85% of measured travel time paths Link volumes for more than 85% of cases meet the following criteria: - For volumes less than 700vph, within 100vph - For volumes between 700 and 2,700vph, within 15% - For volumes greater than 2,700vph, within 400vph Link volumes for more than 85% of cases have a GEH statistic less than 5 (a measure of how well the model replicates actual conditions) Sum of link volumes within 5% Sum of link volumes have a GEH statistic less than 4 * Caltrans and the FHWA suggest the following validation criteria: (Guidelines for Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software, California Department of Transportation, 2002; Volume III - Guidelines for Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software, Federal Highway Administration, 2003). Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 8

Transit Travel Time Calibration/Validation Bus travel times for Muni lines 38 and 38L were analyzed along three segments of the corridor Park Presidio Blvd. Presidio Ave. Fillmore St. Van Ness Ave. Geary Blvd. Direction Eastbound Westbound Muni Line Reported Travel Time Modeled Percent Difference 38 21:00 21:52 4.2% 38L 18:06 19:25 7.2% 38 21:36 21:48 0.9% 38L 18:24 19:39 6.8% Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 9

Transit Travel Time Section 1 Park Presidio Blvd. to Presidio Ave. Direction Eastbound Westbound Muni Line Reported Travel Time Modeled Difference (seconds) 38 10:42 10:27 15 38L 8:42 8:36 6 38 9:54 10:47 53 38L 8:12 9:48 96 Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 10

Auto Travel Time Calibration/Validation Auto travel times were analyzed along six segments of the corridor Park Presidio Blvd. Masonic Ave. Webster St. 22 nd Ave. Arguello Blvd. Divisadero St. Van Ness Ave. Geary Blvd. Direction Reported Travel Time Modeled Percent Difference Eastbound 15:17 13:31-11.6% Westbound 12:31 14:41 17.4% Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 11

Auto Travel Time Section 5 Divisadero St. to Webster St. Direction Reported Travel Time Modeled Difference (seconds) Eastbound 2:20 1:48-32 Westbound 1:03 1:06 3 Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 12

Travel Time Calibration/Validation Summary 92% of Travel Time segments in agreement Bus Travel Time Calibrated Auto Travel Time Calibrated Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 13

Modeled Auto and Transit Travel Times Bus: Van Ness to Park Presidio Auto: Van Ness to 22nd Westbound Average Travel Time (min) PM Peak Hour Average Speed (mph) 38 Bus 21 22 7 8 38L Bus 19 20 8 9 Auto 14 15 13 14 Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 14

Modeled Auto and Transit Travel Times Bus: Park Presidio to Van Ness Auto: 22 nd to Van Ness Eastbound Average Travel Time (min) PM Peak Hour Average Speed (mph) 38 Bus 21 22 7 8 38L Bus 19 20 8 9 Auto 13 14 14 15 Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 15

Areas of Transit Congestion Congested areas are defined as those where transit speeds are 6mph Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 16

Volume Calibration/Validation Link volumes for more than 85% of cases meet the following criteria: - For volumes less than 700vph, within 100vph PASS - For volumes between 700 and 2,700vph, within 15% PASS - For volumes greater than 2,700vph, within 400vph PASS Link volumes for more than 85% of cases have a GEH statistic less than 5 PASS Sum of link volumes within 5% PASS Sum of link volumes have a GEH statistic less than 4 PASS Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 17

Volume Calibration/Validation Summary All bus and auto volume validation measures in agreement Volumes Calibrated Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 18

Evaluation Measures Transit Operations and Performance Bus travel times and delay Traffic Operations and Diversions Auto travel times and intersection delay Congestion/queues Diversion to parallel facilities? Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 19

Next Steps Develop Synchro Model for East of Van Ness Analysis Develop Year 2015 and 2035 Baseline Models Develop Year 2015 and 2035 Project Alternatives Models Geary Boulevard BRT EIR/EIS 20

QUESTIONS or COMMENTS? Eric Womeldorff Fehr & Peers e.womeldorff@fehrandpeers.com www.gearybrt.org