Between the Market and the Moon Requirements for Lunar Tourism Eric Dahlstrom InternationalSpace.com Emeline Paat-Dahlstrom Space Adventures, Ltd. 20 September 2005 International Lunar Conference Toronto, Canada
20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 2
Someday soon, tourists will.. Ride vehicles that cost billions of dollars to develop.. Enter dangerous realms where they would die in seconds, if they were not protected from.. Temperature extremes, lack of oxygen, lack of pressure, explosive propellants, extreme forces from propulsion, etc. They will depend on the crew and each other to survive. And they will not be deterred by the constant threat of death - in spite of the history of well-known accidents. For these brave explorers, one thought will drive them. Motivate them. Fill their dreams. 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 3
Do you have any more pretzels? 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 4
Today: 1 Million Tourists Above 30,000 Feet Unprotected, they would die within seconds 600 mph airspeed, lack of oxygen, low air pressure, extreme cold Commercial air travel has achieved a balance Safe Aircraft Design, construction, testing, maintenance, procedures, inspections Short safety briefing..your oxygen mask.. Quick instructions for fellow passengers in critical roles Do you understand, and are you willing and able, to perform the duties required by sitting in this exit row? Plus, a little fantasy..your flotation device.. 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 5
To the Moon Apollo: Humans can fly to the Moon (Using 1960 s technology!) Current technology should allow us to get there cheaper Compare: Slide rules and mainframes personal computers (All Apollo computations = 1 minute on current a PC) 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 6
This has been done before Pioneering technology Expensive, high technology Commercial products Mass-produced, low cost 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Government Influence Autos Air travel Computers Internet Comsats Cell phones VCR, CD, DVD, etc. Only human space travel is stuck 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 7
Zero-Gravity Flights Zero-G Corp Boeing 727 Zero-G on IL-76 Short Safety Briefing 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 8
Orbital Spaceflight International Space Station Mark Shuttleworth on ISS Soyuz Launch Vehicle Months of Cosmonaut Training 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 9
20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 10
Exploration Missions How does space tourism relate to the plans for exploration missions? 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 11
Khrushchev s Revenge: The Space Race will Continue! The Centralized, Command-Economy of Communism versus Market-driven, Free-Enterprise Capitalism Unfortunately, our government is now on the wrong side. And NASA s 5-year Plans now take 13 years.. Russia/Energia Klipper Design Being built for the Market US/Lockheed-Martin CEV Design Proposal Will only be built if the Government Commands 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 12
Khrushchev s Revenge: The Space Race will Continue! The Centralized, Command-Economy of Communism versus Market-driven, Free-Enterprise Capitalism Unfortunately, our government is now on the wrong side. And NASA s 5-year Plans now take 13 years.. Sorry. Can you make it an Apollo on Steroids? Russia/Energia Klipper Design Being built for the Market US/Lockheed-Martin CEV Design Proposal Will only be built if the Government Commands 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 13
Exploration Missions are Important To push the boundaries, test new technologies, accomplish what individuals and private enterprise cannot do.. 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 14
Exploration Missions But explorers might want to stay a little farther ahead of the tourists.. 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 15
Space Tourism Timeline 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Vostok Mercury Voskod Gemini Soyuz S1 Apollo S2 S3 Skylab S4 S5 Salyut 6 Salyut 7 Shuttle Bu Mir Shuttle ISS CZ ISS Shuttle ISS CEV to ISS? CEV 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 DSE DSE Lunar Tourism CEV? Mir Shuttle ISS Columbia ISS Shuttle? ISS? CEV to ISS? Space Adventures Tito Shuttleworth Olsen Bigelow prize ($50M) SA-1 Orbital Tourism Virgin Galactic X-Prize ($10M) XCOR Arrow Rocketplane Ascender davinci C21 etc SpaceShipOne X-Prize Cup Suborbital Tourism 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 16
Environmental Factors for Space Development 61 70 89 03 05 Environmental Factor - -? Government (policy, budget, capabilities, interests, motivations) - Technical (knowledge base, technology, processes, costs). Legal & regulatory environment.. Economy -..? Public opinion (perceptions, assumptions, media, education).. Financial resources Corporate (capabilities, workforce skills, motivations). Entrepreneurial environment x... International (cooperation, competition, security) 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 17
What is a Tourist Destination? 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 18
The Two Most Popular Tourist Destinations Today A Florida Swamp Car stuck in Florida swamp, 1930 A Nevada Desert Las Vegas Nevada, 1842 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 19
The Two Most Popular Tourist Destinations Today A Florida Swamp Disneyworld & Orlando: $20B/year Car stuck in Florida swamp, 1930 Walt Disney announces the Florida Project 1965 A Nevada Desert Las Vegas: $34B/year Las Vegas Nevada, 1842 Las Vegas Nevada, 2004 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 20
What Next? 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 21
Images of Space Tourism 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Space Tourism Society (2002) Shimizu Space Hotel (1989) 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) 2001: A Space 20 Sept Odyssey 2005 InternationalSpace.com (1968) Adventure Tourism (2002) Lunar Hotel Design (2001) 22
A Vision of Space Tourism in 2030 ~150 Orbital Hotels ~5M passengers/year ($20k to LEO) (only first 2% of $40T market) Patrick Collins (2000), spacefuture.com 20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 23
20 Sept 2005 InternationalSpace.com 24