Adapting to Climate Change In Coastal Environments Peter Nimmrichter, P.Eng. AMEC Earth and Environmental, Mississauga, Ontario 19/11/2007 1
The Great Lakes Watershed The Great Lakes cover an area of 244,160 km 2 with a total shoreline length of 17,000 km. The watershed area that drains into the Great Lakes is relatively small at 522,000 km 2. 19/11/2007 2
The Coastal Zone Beaches The coastal zone has a wide variety of shoreline types from extensive sandy beaches at places like Sandbanks and Presqu ile on Lake Ontario, Long Point on Lake Erie, Wasaga Beach on Lake Huron. Sand Banks PP, Lake Ontario Sauble Beach, Lake Huron Wasaga Beach, Georgian Bay 19/11/2007 3
The Coastal Zone Rocky Shorelines Rocky shorelines with vertical limestone cliffs on the Bruce Peninsula to rocky shorelines along much of the northern part of Lake Huron and Lake Superior. Lake Huron Pukaskwa National Park, Lake Superior Georgian Bay 19/11/2007 4
The Coastal Zone Wetlands Prior to European colonization of the Great Lakes basin, wetlands were extensive and numerous and ranged from extensive deciduous swamps at the west end of Lake Erie, to major cattail and shallow water marshes at places like Point Pelee, Bay of Quinte, Cootes Paradise in Hamilton and extensive wild rice beds in northern parts of Lakes Huron and Superior. Georgian Bay Islands National Park MacGregor Point Provincial Park on Lake Huron Northeast Coast Lake Michigan Long Point Lake Erie Bad River Reservation Lake Superior Point Pelee National Park Lake Erie 19/11/2007 5
Years of Changes to the Coastal Zone Numerous changes have been made to the coastal zone of the Great Lakes in the past 200 years. deforestation extensive modification of shorelines particularly on Lakes Ontario and Erie. creation of harbours numerous water control devices from small dams to large dams and major control structures to facilitate shipping. creation of canals particularly Welland Canal to bypass Niagara Falls. pollution from industry, agriculture and residential 19/11/2007 6
Years of Changes to Fisheries Ecosystems have been changed with the exploitation of fisheries, the introduction of new species, so that the present coastal aquatic ecosystem bears little resemblance to the natural condition, certainly in the southern Lakes. More than 150 invasive species (25 fish species) have become established since the 1800 s 19/11/2007 7
Fisheries & the Great Lakes Temperature requirements of typical Lake Ontario fish of the three major thermal groupings. Thermal Habitat Thermal grouping Species Spawning Optimum Preferred Mean warmwater bluegill 23.7 30.2 31.3 30.8 white perch 20.1 28.8 29.8 29.0 smallmouth bass 18.0 27.0 27.4 27.2 Mean 20.6 28.7 29.5 29.0 coolwater yellow perch 9.3 22.5 23.3 22.9 walleye 8.0 22.6 21.7 22.2 northern pike 6.9 20.0 23.5 21.8 Mean 8.1 21.7 22.8 22.3 coldwater brook trout 8.7 15.0 13.0 14.0 lake whitefish 5.7 15.2 11.1 13.2 lake trout 10.6 11.7 11.2 11.5 Mean 8.3 14.0 11.8 12.9 (Casselman, 2005) 19/11/2007 8
Climate Change in the Coastal Zone Climate is forecast to change, and the various models suggest that in the Great Lakes Region there will be: Increasing air temperature Increasing water temperature Decreasing ice cover Increasing precipitation Increasing evaporation and evapotranspiration Decreasing water levels Temperature ( C) 14 Maximum 14 12 12 10 Mean 10 8 8 6 6 Minimum 4 4 2 2 0 0 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year 16 Delhi CDA/CS Annual Temperature 16 19/11/2007 9
Coastal Study Sites on the Great Lakes Project identified 12 Sites around the Great Lakes, three each on Lake Ontario, Erie, Huron and Superior. 1. Bay of Quinte / Presqu ile 2. Toronto 3. Hamilton 4. Long Point 5. Point Pelee 6. Lake St Clair 7. Goderich 8. Bruce Penninsula 9. Georgian Bay 10. Pukaswa National Park 11. Thunder Bay 12. Heritage Coast 19/11/2007 10
Presqu ile Provincial Park Lake Ontario Lengthening shoulder seasons when seasonal workers not available Winter and spring fall storms major damage to trees and require more labour than available. Increasing beach areas with low water levels. Connections of important islands to mainland with low water levels. Water access for private residences 19/11/2007 11
Presqu ile Provincial Park Lake Ontario 19/11/2007 12
Presqu ile Provincial Park Water Level Effects Climate change models suggest that the levels of Lake Ontario will likely drop Small changes in lake levels will result in dramatically different shoreline configurations 19/11/2007 13
Presqu ile Provincial Park Water Level Effects Significant landform development in the past 200+ years 1790 1878 1998 19/11/2007 14
Presqu ile Provincial Park Changing Shoreline Configuration Presqu ile s shoreline with a one meter drop in lake levels. 19/11/2007 15
Presqu ile Provincial Park Ecologically Significant Shoreline Changes Marsh extends into Presqu ile Bay Beach grows to the west Islands connect to the mainland. 19/11/2007 16
Presqu ile Provincial Park Temperature Effect Courtesy of Paul Gray, MNR 19/11/2007 17
Sturgeon Bay Georgian Bay, Lake Huron Increasing residential use Lower water levels, difficult water access for some properties Warmer water temperatures, resulting in anoxic hypolimnion in summer and fish kills Increased water temperatures combined with increasing phosphorous resulting in increased blue green algal blooms 19/11/2007 18
Sturgeon Bay Georgian Bay, Lake Huron 19/11/2007 19
Sturgeon Bay Water Level Effects Spring overturn, moderate P levels Early summer, formation of thermocline Mid summer, thermocline lowered, reduced hypolimnion, high P Late summer, limited hypolimnion, high P levels, low O 2, fish kills Courtesy of Karl Scheifer, EcoMetrix 19/11/2007 20
Sturgeon Bay Temperature and Nutrient Effect Courtesy of Paul Gray, MNR Courtesy of Karl Scheifer, EcoMetrix 19/11/2007 21
Long Point Lake Erie Longer shoulder seasons may increase warmweather operating season Increased temperatures may allow expansion of Carolinian species and promote the spread of Lyme disease Increasing water temperatures will stress native species and promote invasives 19/11/2007 22
Long Point Water Level Effects Conditions under High Historic Water Levels (1978) Conditions under Low Historic Water Levels (1964) High Water Level under Climate Change Low Water Level under Climate Change Data Courtesy of Susan Doka, DFO 19/11/2007 23
Long Point Water Level Effects on Wetlands Conditions under High Historic Water Level (1978) Conditions under Low Historic Water Level (1964) High Water Level Condition under Climate Change Low Water Condition Level under Climate Change Data Courtesy of Susan Doka, DFO 19/11/2007 24
Long Point Temperature Effects Reduced ice cover Opportunity for increased over wintering of waterfowl Increased potential for snow and ice storms Increasing water temperatures will stress native species and promote invasives Water intakes Courtesy of Paul Gray, MNR 19/11/2007 25
Tools for Adaptation to Climate Change Regulations Changes in behaviour Technology 19/11/2007 26
Coastal Restoration Options Include efforts to restore badly damaged ecosystems and shorelines Bluffers Park, Lake Ontario LaSalle Park, Lake Ontario Presqu ile Park, Lake Ontario Cootes Paradise, Lake Ontario 19/11/2007 27
Conclusions Expectation of warming in coastal areas of the Great Lakes. Receding water levels and disproportionate heating of shallow areas may result in more extensive habitat changes in coastal areas These changes may provide opportunities for warm-water (including invasive species) to proliferate. Native, cold-water species would retreat from these areas. 19/11/2007 28
Conclusions (cont d) Variability of coastal climate Consider that all components of system should be maintained Plan for the future in consideration of Wetlands, Fish, Wildlife Human industry / Habitation Aesthetics / Wild Places 19/11/2007 29
Climate Change Action Fund Coastal Zone Project Partners Partners with AMEC are: Meteorological Services Canada Canadian Wildlife Service Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Toronto and Region Conservation Authority Town of Caledon Ecometrix Incorporated Environment Canada Canadian Wildlife Service Environnement Canada Service canadien de la faune 19/11/2007 30
Thank you Adapting To Climate Change In Coastal Environments Mr. Peter Nimmrichter, P.Eng. AMEC Earth and Environmental, Mississauga, Ontario 19/11/2007 31