1 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS JANUARY 8, 2018 BOARD OF EDUCATION PRESENTATION JEFF CIMMERER CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER
Pittsford Central School District Enrollment Comparison Between 2016 and 2017 Grades Actual 2016 Actual 2017 Difference by Number of Students K-5 2302 2289-13 6-8 1395 1381-14 9-12 1936 1969 +33 Out of District Placements 52 46-6 Total 5685 5685 Even * Pittsford students enrolled in-district BOCES; Pittsford students enrolled in out-of-district BOCES classes; Pittsford students who attend private special education schools.
School Elementary Enrollment Change Actual Enrollment 2016 Actual Enrollment 2017 Percentage Increase or Decrease Number of Students AC 366 361-1.36% -5 JR 394 367-6.85% -27 MC 733 738 +0.68% +5 PR 425 432 +1.65% +7 TR 384 391 +2.08% +8 Elementary School Total 2302 2289-0.56% -13
Secondary Enrollment Change School Actual Enrollment 2016 Actual Enrollment 2017 Percentage Increase or Decrease Number of Students BRMS 719 715-0.56% -4 CRMS 676 666-1.48% -10 Middle School Total 1395 1381-2.04% -14 MHS 998 1018 +2.02% +20 SHS 938 951 +1.39% +13 High School Total 1936 1969 +1.70% +33
Comparison of Projected to Actual Enrollment 2017 Our predictions 5 years ago Projected for 2017 Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,356 2,289 97.16% 6-8 1,420 1,381 97.25% 9-12 2,026 1,969 97.19% Total 5,802 5,639 (-163) 97.19% (-3% Error) Our predictions 10 years ago Projected for 2017 Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,338 2,289 97.9% 6-8 1,348 1,381 97.55% 9-12 1,956 1,969 99.34% Total 5,642 5,639 (-3) 99.95% (<1% Error)
Our predictions 5 years ago Our Predictions Five Years Ago 2012 Projected for 2017 2017 Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,356 2,289 97.16% 6-8 1,420 1,381 97.25% 9-12 2,026 1,969 97.19% Total 5,802 5,639 97.19%
Our Predictions Ten Years Ago For 2017 Our predictions 10 years ago Projected for 2017 2017 Actual Enrollment Minus Out of District Placements Accuracy K-5 2,338 2,289 97.9% 6-8 1,348 1,381 97.55% 9-12 1,956 1,969 99.34% Total 5,642 5,639 99.95%
Comparison of Projected HDK to Actual Enrollment 2017 Kindergarten Numerical Percent PCSD Building Projected for 2017 Actual 2017 Difference Difference % Accuracy Allen Creek 31 38 7 22.58% 77.42% Jefferson Rd 65 40-25 38.46% 61.54% Mendon Center 101 65-36 35.64% 64.36% Park Rd 56 50-6 10.71% 89.29% Thornell Rd 57 53-4 7.02% 92.98% Total 310 246-64 20.65% 79.35%
Turnover Rate and Projections Transition Difference in Cohort Size From BEDS Day 2016 to BEDS 2017 5 Year Historical Average K go 1 101 91 1 go 2 26 14 2 go 3 23 16 3 go 4 22 13 4 go 5 21 15 5 go 6 13 3 6 go 7 27 12 7 go 8 2-2 8 go 9 10 6 9 go 10 7 3 10 go 11-8 -4 11 go 12-1 3 For Example K Class of 2017 or Graduation Class of 2029 246 + 91 = 337 337 + 14 = 351 351 + 16 = 367 367 + 13 = 380 380 + 15 = 395 395 + 3 = 398 398 + 12 = 410 410-2 = 408 408 + 6 = 414 414 + 3 = 417 417-4 = 413 413 + 3 = 416
Elementary Projections by School Actual Projected 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ACE 361 366 352 352 348 371 JRE 367 371 385 394 408 414 MCE 738 741 735 730 736 722 PRE 432 431 455 470 485 502 TRE 391 424 441 459 503 524 Blue = Growth Maroon = Decline Black= Stable
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Elementary Projections by School Number of Students Projected by Year 432 391 367 361 738 722 524 502 414 371 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MCE PRE JRE TRE ACE
HDK Kindergarten Projections by Year By School 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 65 53 50 40 38 89 87 90 90 91 72 71 73 73 74 68 67 69 69 70 54 53 55 55 56 52 51 53 52 53 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MCE PRE ACE JRE TRE
HDK Building Kindergarten Projections Actual Projections 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ACE 38 52 51 53 52 53 JRE 40 54 53 55 55 56 MCE 65 89 87 90 90 91 PRE 50 68 67 69 69 70 TRE 53 72 71 73 73 74
Secondary Projections by School Actual Projected 2017 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 BRMS 715 695 717 712 699 698 CRMS 666 664 657 653 640 640 MHS 1018 983 993 978 950 978 SHS 951 938 947 930 901 899
Secondary Projections by School Number of Students Projected by Year 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 1018 978 951 899 715 698 666 640 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MHS SHS BRMS CRMS
10-Year Enrollment Projections by Level 2289 1969 1381 Elementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools 2,670 1,813 1,485 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total K-5 2289 2,334 2,369 2,405 2,480 2,533 2,632 2,642 2,659 2,664 2,670 Total 6-8 1381 1,359 1,374 1,365 1,339 1,338 1,280 1,351 1,387 1,481 1,485 Total 9-12 1969 1,955 1,939 1,929 1,869 1,850 1,876 1,827 1,829 1,782 1,813
Private School Enrollment 2017 Within District Boundaries St. Louis - 138 Allendale Columbia - 91 Home School - 45 Trinity Montessori - 44 Out of District Mc Quaid - 121 Harley - 101 Other - 99 Mercy - 69 Seton - 22 Sienna Catholic Academy - 14 Hillel - 10
6872 Private School Enrollment 6487 6439 6031 6024 5977 5963 5888 5866 5718 5685 5685 841 725 762 710 726 739 754 805 754 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Blue = Private School Students Not Enrolled within PCSD Maroon = District Enrolled Students Including Out of District Placements
Total District Enrollment Including Projections Actual Enrollments Projected Enrollments Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Enrollment 6049 6041 6031 6024 5977 5963 5888 5866 5718 5685 5685 5694 5728 5745 5734 5767 5834 5866 5921 5973 6014 6,049 5,685 5,734 5,834 5,921 6,014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
530 576 Ethnicity 544 559 556 589 576 588 471 490 288 298 248 260 225 236 207 209 256 186 169 169 161 161 164 151 168 180 174 182 103 106 88 145 146 131 47 36 10 22 1 2 0 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 American Indian Alaskan Native Black Hispanic Asian/ Pacific Islander Multiracial
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ethnicity 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 American Indian Alaskan Native Black Hispanic Asian/ Pacific Islander Multiracial White
FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN FORECASTING About 35 homes were built in the last year. New Construction in Pittsford by: Spall Morrell Pride Mark A safe trend to assume is that we will have 30 homes built per year for the next five years primarily located in the southern portion of Pittsford. Work has begun on a new 34 lot townhome community on Green Point Trail off West Jefferson Road near Locust Hill Country Club, these are patio homes geared towards empty nesters, so they should have little impact on our projections. The concept plan area south of the Thruway is still pending, nothing has been built. An area of growth still being considered 5 to 10 years from now includes a 175 unit apartment complex near the village on the canal. - Michelle Debyah, GIS Analyst, Town of Pittsford, 10/18/2017 1/9/2018
23 You are here = Potential Area of Development 1/9/2018
24 The concept plan area south of the Thruway is still pending, nothing has been built. 1/9/2018
25 Only expecting 10-15 homes next year 1/9/2018
26 Only expecting 12 homes or townhouses next year 1/9/2018
27 TOWN OF PITTSFORD 2000 2010 Number Percent Number Percent Total population 27,219 100.00% 29,405 100.00% SEX AND AGE Male 12,709 46.70% 13,659 46.50% Female 14,510 53.30% 15,746 53.50% Under 5 years 1,585 5.80% 1,281 4.40% 5 to 9 years 2,033 7.50% 1,935 6.60% 10 to 14 years 2,108 7.70% 2,277 7.70% 15 to 19 years 2,386 8.80% 3,195 10.90% 20 to 24 years 1,345 4.90% 1,996 6.80% 25 to 34 years 1,794 6.60% 1,501 5.10% 35 to 44 years 4,219 15.50% 3,339 11.40% 45 to 54 years 4,445 16.30% 4,853 16.50% 55 to 59 years 1,782 6.50% 2,086 7.10% 60 to 64 years 1,196 4.40% 1,802 6.10% 65 to 74 years 2,229 8.20% 2,391 8.10% 75 to 84 years 1,471 5.40% 1,829 6.20% 85 years and over 626 2.30% 920 3.10% CENSUS DATA Median age (years) 40.9 42.9 18 years and over 20,318 74.60% 22,452 76.40% 21 years and over 18,600 68.30% 20,009 68.00% 62 years and over 5,009 18.40% 6,207 21.10% 65 years and over 4,326 15.90% 5,140 17.50% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000; U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 1/9/2018
28 Population Growth: Town vs. Village Number of Residents 1/9/2018
29 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Town of Pittsford 8,469 18,441 21,052 23,009 25,801 28,050 28,413 28,964 29,382 29,719 Village of Pittsford 1,749 1,755 1,568 1,488 1,418 1,355 1,339 1,337 1,331 1,325 Population Growth: Town vs. Village Number of Residents 1/9/2018
30 Population Growth: Town vs. Village Percentage of Residents 1/9/2018
31 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50 Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Town of Pittsford Village of Pittsford 117.7% 14.2% 9.3% 12.1% 8.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% -10.7% -5.1% -4.7% -4.4% -1.2% -0.1% -0.4% -0.5% Population Growth: Town vs. Village Percentage of Residents 1/9/2018
Summary Based on current projections, PCSD will show a gradual increase from 2017 to 2027. Projections by individual schools must be continually monitored. Our enrollment projections have been 99% accurate over the past ten years and 97% accurate over the past five years.
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