TIN: The Forgotten EV Metal? DATE: 06/11/2017 PREPARED BY: Tom Mulqueen PREPARED FOR: 2017 ITRI Australian Tin Tour
ITRI: Delivering the future of tin
100% electric vehicles by 2040
Tin overlooked by EV hype? 180 160 140 120 100 Annual indexed price change, Index base=100 Battery grade lithium-carbonate Cobalt Graphite flake Tin 80 60 Who are ITRI? 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to Sep 2017 Data: LME, Roskill, BMI, UBS
Who are ITRI? Tin market drivers
Who are ITRI? Tin demand
348,900 tonnes globally ITRI 2016 tin consumption estimates
Conventional cars have many tin uses
2 most significant uses for EV impact
Tin use in car batteries
Tin use in lead-acid batteries 2010??? 2016 28,100t 14,400 t 4 th largest tin use
Lead-acid battery markets
Substitution by lithium-ion Tonnes tin use in lead-acid batteries
Tin opportunities in lithium-ion 2024-2027 ANODES Current GEN1 Graphite 2017-2024 GEN2 Graphite + Silicon (?+ Tin) Tin-Cobalt (BYD Patent) 2019-2023 GEN3 Metal Alloys Tin Alloys Tin Compounds (Storedot Patent) GEN4 Lithium Alloys Silicon Alloys Lithium-Tin Silicon-Tin SOLID STATE 2022 TOYOTA Lithium Tin Silicon PS
Tin use in car electronic soldering
3 are most relevant for the EV revolution Tin solder use in conventional cars
Chevrolet Volt disassembly (2012) Source: EDN Network
450 400 350 300 IU -1%pa (E.g. tin plays role in EV) IU -2%pa (Central Forecast) IU -3%pa Historical data Refined tin use scenarios to 2030 Annual consumption, 000 tonnes 250 200 150 IU = Intensity of use (Technological component of changing demand) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Tin Use Tin Property Lead-acid batteries Improved metallurgy, corrosion resistance Li-ion batteries Absorption of lithium ions in lattice Post-lithium batteries Absorption of alkali metal ions in lattice Solar panels Semiconductor for sunlight conversion Thermoelectrics Semiconductor for ionic diffusion Fuel cells Robust membranes for catalytic combustion Biodiesel production Organic material cracking catalyst Hydrogen production 1 Water splitting catalyst Hydrogen production 2 Liquid metal for stripping methane carbon Fusion / Solar coolant High heat capacity liquid metal Market Headline opportunities from tin versatility
Who are ITRI? Tin supply
China Indonesia Myanmar Peru Bolivia Africa Brazil Australia Other Tin mine output H1 2016 vs H1 2017 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 +18% +26% +7% 0% 0% +58% +6% +22% +2% H1 2016 H1 2017 Average LME Price US$16,226 Average LME Price US$ 19,998 ITRI 2017
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 350 300 250 200 150 100 Shares of world tin mine output Mined tin output, kt 2017e Myanmar China Indonesia Peru Bolivia 50 Malaysia 0 ROW
Tin mining locations in Myanmar
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 + 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2009
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2010
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2011
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2012
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2014
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Google earth 5 km 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Man Maw Dec 2016
Changes in mine production to 2021 Potential changes in tin-in-concentrate production (2017 to 2021), 000 tpy Bolivia Brazil Australia Russia Other Africa China Peru Indonesia Myanmar Margin for error is significant, price elastic supply Project development not a certainty -30-20 -10 0 10 20 Existing mines Projects
Tin stocks
70 60 50 40 000 tonnes refined tin Consumer & Producer SHFE LME 30 20 10 0 Visible refined tin stocks near lows
80 60 40 20 000t refined tin Surplus ROW China World 0-20 -40-60 Deficit -80 Regional supply/demand balances
World Supply/Demand Balances in Refined Tin ('000 tonnes) Estimate Forecast 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f World World Refined Production 341.0 370.2 335.5 338.9 352.5 351.6 DLA Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 World Refined Consumption 342.8 353.8 341.3 348.9 355.5 358.9 Global Market Balance -1.8 16.4-5.8-10.0-3.0-7.3 Reported stocks LME 9.7 12.1 6.1 3.8 2.0 2.0 SHFE 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.4 8.0 5.0 Producers 13.7 15.8 14.0 11.9 9.0 8.0 Consumer/other 10.9 11.2 11.3 10.6 11.0 8.0 Total 34.3 39.1 32.2 28.7 30.0 23.0 World Stock Ratio (weeks consumption) 5.2 5.8 4.9 4.3 4.4 3.3 Tighter market anticipated in 2018
30,000 3 possible price scenarios to 2021 US$/tonne 20,000 10,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ITRI 2017
EV cherry on top for tin market bulls? EV? Tin demand stable Existing sources in decline Visible stocks near lows
Thank You We believe that global co-operation on markets, technology, sustainability and regulatory issues is the most cost effective route to achieve long-term success for the industry. If we work together effectively then the outlook for tin is very positive. Global co-operation for long-term success ITRI Unit 3, Curo Park Frogmore St. Albans Hertfordshire AL2 2DD United Kingdom + 44 (0)1727 875544 www.itri.co.uk ITRI China Room 1606, C2 Tower, Jinmao Building, No. 18 Xizhimenwai Street, Xicheng District, Beijing, China, 100044 +86 10 6808 0915 chinaoffice@itri.co.uk www.itri.com.cn