HURRICANE NATE BRIEFING 11:00 PM CDT Friday, October 6, 2017 Prepared by: NWS NWSNewOrleans www.weather.gov/neworleans
Situation Overview Nate is now a hurricane with no significant change in the track with this advisory Hurricane warnings now in effect for all of coastal SE LA and MS, and around Lake Pontchartrain. Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Ascension, Livingston, Upper Tangipahoa, Washington, and Pearl River NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone. Storm Surge Warning remains in effect along open coastline and shore of Lake Pontchartrain outside the risk reduction system
Threat Levels Threat Level Extreme High Moderate Low None Winds Surge Rainfall/ Flooding Tornadoes
Wind Speed Probabilities Chance of tropical storm force winds has remained roughly the same Highest probabilities remain over extreme SE LA and coastal MS Tropical Storm conditions could begin as early as Saturday afternoon across southernmost coastal areas. Most likely arrival of tropical storm force winds is late Saturday.
Wind Speed Probabilities There is an increasing chance of hurricane force winds over extreme SE Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Hurricane wind probabilities are increasing over extreme SE Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The area of greatest risk of seeing hurricane force winds will be along coastal Mississippi.
Wind Timing Expected Duration of Wind Speeds Location Tropical Storm Force Winds Hurricane Force Winds Terrebonne, Lafourche, Assumption, St. James, St. John Tropical storm force winds expected, especially in squalls Saturday evening through Saturday night A few hurricane force gusts possible in squalls Saturday night Lower Jefferson, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard St. Charles, Upper Jefferson, Orleans, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Lower Tangipahoa, St. Tammany Tropical storm force winds expected, especially in squalls beginning late Saturday afternoon and continuing through Saturday night Tropical storm force winds expected, especially in squalls Saturday evening through Saturday night Hurricane force gusts likely with sustained hurricane force winds possible Saturday evening through Saturday night A few hurricane force gusts possible in squalls Saturday night Ascension, Livingston, Upper Tangipahoa, Washington, Pearl River Tropical storm force winds expected (mainly gusts) in squalls Saturday evening through Saturday night Hurricane force winds not expected Hancock, Harrison, Jackson Tropical storm force winds expected, especially in squalls Saturday night into Sunday morning Hurricane force gusts likely with sustained hurricane force winds possible Saturday night into Sunday morning
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Note: This graphic depicts a reasonable worst case or upper bound based on the 10pm CDT advisory.
Potential Storm Surge Note: This graphic depicts a reasonable worst case or upper bound based on the 10pm CDT advisory.
Potential Storm Surge Note: This graphic depicts a reasonable worst case or upper bound based on the 10pm CDT advisory.
Potential Storm Surge Note: This graphic depicts a reasonable worst case or upper bound based on the 10pm CDT advisory.
Storm Surge Warning A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect all coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain, excluding areas inside the federal risk reduction system Danger of life-threatening inundation from storm surge somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours.
Expected Storm Total Rainfall Rainfall forecast from 7 PM this evening through 7 PM Monday Locally, most rain will occur Saturday and Saturday night Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts
Summary of Impacts Wind Greatest chance of TS force winds is across extreme SE LA and S MS. Tropical Storm Force winds likely Hurricane force winds (especially gusts) likely near and just to the right of the storm s center Rainfall Squalls likely developing late Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches near and to the right of the storm center with decreasing amounts to the west Fast movement does mean a lower threat of high rainfall totals, but shorter term rainfall rates could still result ponding
Summary of Impacts, cont Storm Surge Maximum 4 to 8 feet above ground along the open coastline east of the Mississippi River (including MS coast) Maximum 3 to 6 feet above ground along the open coastline west of the Mississippi River Maximum 3 to 5 feet above ground along the shore of Lake Pontchartrain, except far eastern where 4 to 7 feet will be possible Maximum 1 to 3 feet above ground along the shore of Lake Maurepas Impacts will be highly dependent on track. Impacts will be greatest along and to the right of the storm center.
HURRICANE NATE BRIEFING Please contact WFO at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429 You can get the latest graphics and information on this storm at www.hurricanes.gov NWSNewOrleans www.weather.gov/neworleans