californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Friday, September 28, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Welcome home! It feels so good to be back where the turf is lush, the horses are mostly high-end and the trainers and riders are the best in the world so far as I am concerned, not to mention, what is a sloppy track? Gulfstream was an experiment: one that failed miserably. Fields are too big and unwieldy, too much chalk in the winner s circle, just not a good time. My bad. This won t please all of you (remember what Lincoln said), but we are NEVER leaving lovely Southern California again. Even Los Alamitos is better than anything on the East Coast, notwithstanding that there is no turf course there. Due to my ignorance about the Fairgrounds/LosAlamitos thoroughbred meet for the past three weeks, NOT under the auspices of the California Horse Racing Board, we missed out on three weeks of our favorite horses trainers jockeys. It won t happen again now that I have been educated. Two Observations About Today s Card There is one stakes race here today, The Eddie D (GIII), which is Race 5. Mike Smith, who has other mounts today, has no mount scheduled for that race. I find that very odd All of the horses seem to be properly rested (i.e., four weeks since last race). There might be a couple who have rested for three and one-half weeks, but other than that, full compliance with the old rule ( four weeks between races ). Are the trainers finally listening to me? Will even Demigoddess race after four weeks rest? I doubt very much that the trainers are listening to the likes of me (lol); and I doubt that when we see Demigoddess again, she will be rested.
Best wishes! Horsecallany It is said by the horse whisperers that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. SPECIAL PROJECTS (reprised, new pricing) I have decided to reduce my price for any special project to a mere $15. That means ff any of you happens to be going to, or wagering on, a track other than our home tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day s races at the foreign track, if you give me a few days notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The Anatomy of a Likeable Longshot - Soi Phet I was asked what made you select Soi Phet as a Likeable Longshot? As you know, that horse was my Likeable Longshot in the 9 th race on the 20 th of May and he paid $ 96.40 for a two dollar bet that Sunday. First, I have a good wagering history with him (he has earned me money). He was moving down precipitously out of graded competition. His string of workouts was impressive still for a ten year old horse. He closes out well. And, his average Beyer rating for races from 2017 to the present (I don t go too far back in the PP s, recent is most relevant as a horse can decline fast, like an NFL running back) was terrific: 90. Frankly, looking at all of that, I don t know what the odds maker/computer was thinking: he was a serious overlay. Thank you odds maker!!! Horsecellany II--- Some Basic Horsie Math/Statistics
Keep in mind that each discrete horse race on a race card is an independent event, in that the winner of one race has no tangible effect on the winner of another race. (For this reason, I never state a so-called Best Bet of the day, which makes no sense to me, as we handicappers do not rate a horse in one race against a horse in another.) Given, that, here are the horsie statistics that we need to keep in mind when wagering horizontally. For the purposes of this demonstration, and for simplicity s sake, let us assume there are ten races, and each race has exactly eight entries. The following is the number of possible outcomes for two races up to eight races: Two races- Daily Double= 8 2, 64 Three races- 8 3, 512 Four races- Pick 4= 8 4, 4,096 Five races- Pick 5= 8 5, 32,768 Six races- Pick 6= 8 6, 262,144 (this is why you should never make that bet!) Seven races- 8 7, 2,097,152 Eight races, like californiawinning.com successfully handicapped on Monday: 8 8, 16,777,216 At least two essential, critical points arise out of this exercise. As for the eight races that californiawinning.com correctly predicted the winners of, there were 16,277,216 possible outcomes. Yet, we hit the mark by naming a grand total of 18 horses. Pretty good aim, huh? Next point: now we see how hard it is even to hit either the Pick 4 (4,096 possible outcomes) or Pick 5 (32,768 possible outcomes). Yet, californiawinning.com accurately predicts both the Pick 4 and Pick 5 with some regularity. Note: Post time today is 1 pm PDT and 4:00 pm EDT.
Friday, September 28, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h
For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLWING ARE TODAY S FREE RACE ANALYSES: RACES 5, 6 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in the free version of californiawinning.com s selections. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! TODAY S FREE RACES: RACES 5 and 6 ***** RACE 5: Mayan Warrior is very steady speed-wise on the main track, he has very good connections and shows a series of creditable works on the main track. Agronomo is about a week short in the rest department, but that didn t hurt
him last time out, when he hit the board at RD less 330 feet, his rider knows him well. Mo Dinero is the ML favorite, mainly because he makes the huge class drop out of MSW, he is trained by one of the best and benefits from the Espinoza parallax. RACE 6: THE EDDIE D., GRADE III, SIX AND ONE-HALF FURLONGS, ON THE GRASS All but Threefiveindia have raced on the grass Stormy Liberal, the deserving ML favorite, is the only entry who has won multiple graded races, both of them turf sprints, one at RD, he has won a heady seven of thirteen races at RD, and seven of fifteen races here, his 2018 earnings dwarf all others except Conquest Tsunami, and his connections are enviable as well. Caribou Club won his sole effort at RD, here last fall, he is one of three entries to have won a graded race, his G win coming at RD plus 330 feet, he rarely misses the board and carries the undersung Joe Talamo. Conquest Tsunami is the third entry to have won a graded race, his such win coming at RD here, he sports the best Beyer at RD and has connections that are a raison d etre, he won two of four races at RD and hit the board in the other two, and check out his 2018 earnings this is a serious challenger ladies and gents Likeable Longshot(s): There are two for this race, and there are others, but these are not available in this free version of today s selections please see below on how to view the Likeable Longshots and the remaining selections prepared by one of the world s best Southern California thoroughbred handicappers ) ***** californiawinning.com all rights reserved To see the entire analysis of today s card---including the all-important Likeable Longshots --- go to Today s Full Race Card at californiawinning.com and click the $2 button, and use your debit or credit card, or your PayPal account to pay $2, or, if you have a PayPal account, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment there (it s easier) OR Better yet, why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they don t give you a graded handicap, and its less than what the touts charged for their little blue card when this track opened on
December 25, 1934 So, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay a mere $20 through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Thanks very much. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?