Arctic Mining, Shipping and Oil and Gas AON-HD Team Meeting Leverett,, Massachusetts September 7, 28 Sharman Haley Professor of Economics and Public Policy Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage 1
Overview: work in progress! Show and Tell Alaska O&G, Mining Employment [Shipping] Canada and Norway mining Data we have and don t t have Plan Recommendations? Drivers and relationships 2
Alaska Mining 3
Value of Alaska Metal Mining as a Share of US Production 14.% $25, Alaska's Share of US Metal Production 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.% $2, $15, $1, $5, Value of Metal Mining Production ($millions).% $- 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 US Metal Value Alaska Metal Value Alaska's Share of Metal Mining 4
45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. Alaskan Gold Contribution 5 24 26 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 Years 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1984 1982 198 Metric Tons Gold Percent AK Gold US Total Percentage
26 8 6 4 2 Alaska Mining Expenditures, 198-26 6 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 198 1982 Exploration Expenditures Development Expenditures Millions of dollars
9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Mining Claims in Alaska 7 Acres claimed 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Total new claims Total active claims
45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Metals Prices 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 8 Gold and Silver prices Zinc price Silver Price Gold prices per ounce Zinc Price ($/lb)
Oil and Gas 9
Alaska and US Crude Oil Production, on and offshore 35, 3.% 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-1 Jan-3 Jan-5 Jan-7 US Total on & offshore Alaska Total on and off shore Alaska as a % of US 1 Thousands of Barrels
18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Baker-Hughes Count of Active Drilling Rigs 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 11 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 1987 Number of Rigs in US Number of Rigs in Alaska Total Alaska Total US
Employment Employment in Alaska Mining and Oil & Gas Average Annual Employment 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 Alaska Total Mining O&G 12
Change in Employment, 199-27 Alaska Total 33.4% 1 Mining 75.% O&G 11.7%.% 2.% 4.% 6.% 8.% Percent Change 13
Marine Shipping 14
Ø 15
Canada Mineral Production Value in Arctic Canada 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 1.% 9.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 16 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 Value in millions of Canadian dollars Arcitc Value as a Percent of Total Canada Arctic total Percent of Canadian Total
24 26 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. Canadian Mining Expenditure 17 22 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 Arctic C A Total Percentage 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1984 1982 198 Expenditure (millions of dollars)
12 1 8 6 4 2 Mineral Exploration Commitments in Greenland 18 Millions of Danish Kroner 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28
Norwegian Metal Ores 25 12.% 2 1.% 15 8.% 6.% 1 4.% 5 2.%.% 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Years )Arctic Production (Nordland Norwegian Production Total 19 Arctic Share
24 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Production of Metal Ores in Arctic Norway 2 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 198 Thousands of tonnes of concentrate
Industrial Minerals-Norway Ktonn 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Percent Arctic % 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Years Norwegian Production Arctic C ontribution Arctic Share of Total 21
3 25 2 15 1 5 Sweden Iron Ore Production in Sweden Sweden Norbotten 22 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24 27 198 1983 Tonnes of Concentrate
Swedish Mining Employment 8, 58% 7, 56% 6, 5, 54% 4, 52% 3, 5% 2, 1, 48% 46% 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Norbotten Sweden Percent 23
Finnish Metal Mining 45.% 4,, Lapland's Share of Finnish Metal Ore Production 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.% 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Metal Ore Production (tons).% 1997 1999 21 23 25 Finland Lapland Lapland's Share of Metal Mining 24
What we have Alaska: 198 26, production, value, and employment statewide, plus major mines; claims statewide Canada: 1997-26 (198-1996 1996 in progress), value [Iceland has no mines] Greenland: 1998-28 claims, exploration Norway: 198-26 production, claims for Troms, Nordland, Finnmark, Svalbard Sweden: 198-26 production Finland: 1997-26 production 25
What is missing Canada: employment Greenland: 198-24; breakouts by place or region; production, value, employment Norway: 25; Norway total; value Sweden: claims 198-98; 98; employment by region; value Finland: 198-96; 96; value, claims, employment Russia: everything! 26
Next six months Cleaning, formatting & documentation Analysis and conversions for consistency White paper for ICASS & Arctic Council Employment data O&G data Shipping data Bering Straits 27
Recommendations for filling gaps Convention on employment statistics Convention on shipping statistics 28
Key drivers of change High prices Declining production in mature regions Political drive for development & revenue in newly self-governing regions Climate warming improves access Longer window changes economics? 29
Data required to quantify relationships? 3
Points for discussion Challenges for a flat file What to measure: resource vs production vs value, leading and lagging Geography: state vs region vs place Maps Local development thesis 31
Geographic scope = AHDR 32