californiawinning.com DEL MAR RACE COURSE FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2018 HAPPY THANKSGIVING (DAY AFTER) Message Board to My Subscribers Today s Card We have eight races today, punctuated by The Red Carpet Handicap, Race 6, Grade III, One and three-eighths miles, turf course. Gary Stevens has retired suddenly as a result of injury last week so obviously any references to him in this document of in any race document you are looking at is inaccurate. California Wildfires/Donate if Possible My heart goes out to those who are affected by the wildfire path of destruction. It has cost at least fifty lives at last count and billions in property damage, leaving scores homeless while the insurance companies go through their rigamarole with claims. You can donate easily by text to the Red Cross at 90999, text CAWILDFIRES. They are suggesting a $10 donation but I suspect they will appreciate any donation. Have a winsome race day Have a winsome race day
Post Time today is 12:30 PM PT, 3:30 PM ET Horsecallany It is said by the horse whisperers that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. SPECIAL PROJECTS (reprised, new pricing) I have decided to reduce my price for any special project to a mere $35. That means ff any of you happens to be going to, or wagering on, a track other than our home tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day s races at the foreign track, if you give me a few days notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The Anatomy of a Likeable Longshot - Soi Phet I was asked what made you select Soi Phet as a Likeable Longshot? As you know, that horse was my Likeable Longshot in the 9 th race on the 20 th of May and he paid $ 96.40 for a two dollar bet that Sunday. First, I have a good wagering history with him (he has earned me money). He was moving down precipitously out of graded competition. His string of workouts was impressive still for a ten year old horse. He closes out well. And, his average Beyer rating for races from 2017 to the present (I don t go too far back in the PP s, recent is most relevant as a horse can decline fast, like an NFL running back) was terrific: 90. Frankly, looking at all of that, I don t know what the odds maker/computer was thinking: he was a serious overlay. Thank you odds maker!!!
Horsecellany II--- Some Basic Horsie Math/Statistics Keep in mind that each discrete horse race on a race card is an independent event, in that the winner of one race has no tangible effect on the winner of another race. (For this reason, I never state a so-called Best Bet of the day, which makes no sense to me, as we handicappers do not rate a horse in one race against a horse in another.) Given, that, here are the horsie statistics that we need to keep in mind when wagering horizontally. For the purposes of this demonstration, and for simplicity s sake, let us assume there are ten races, and each race has exactly eight entries. The following is the number of possible outcomes for two races up to eight races: Two races- Daily Double= 8 2, 64 Three races- 8 3, 512 Four races- Pick 4= 8 4, 4,096 Five races- Pick 5= 8 5, 32,768 Six races- Pick 6= 8 6, 262,144 (this is why you should never make that bet!) Seven races- 8 7, 2,097,152 Eight races, like californiawinning.com successfully handicapped on Monday: 8 8, 16,777,216 At least two essential, critical points arise out of this exercise. As for the eight races that californiawinning.com correctly predicted the winners of, there were 16,277,216 possible outcomes. Yet, we hit the mark by naming a grand total of 18 horses. Pretty good aim, huh? Next point: now we see how hard it is even to hit either the Pick 4 (4,096 possible outcomes) or Pick 5 (32,768 possible outcomes). Yet, californiawinning.com accurately predicts both the Pick 4 and Pick 5 with some regularity. FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2018 DEL MAR RACE COURSE
FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-soexcellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of lessthan-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h
For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLWING ARE TODAY S FREE RACE ANALYSES: RACES 7-8 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in the free version of californiawinning.com s selections. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! FREE RACES: 7 AND 8 RACE 7: No entry has hit the board at RD Cassie Belle hit the board at RD plus 990 feet and in a sprint on the main track, failing at RD after a lousy start, she has a good
jockey and will be in the hunt. Rested She s a Dime is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s)/computer as the narrow ML favorite: she just missed a win at RD less 330 feet last time out and hit the board in one of two other sprints, it would be a challenge to come up with a better rider/trainer duo. Imminent placed at RD less 660 feet three weeks ago, the filly will be a factor in this rather pedestrian field. RACE 8: Sutro is the narrow ML favorite, as she has done her best work in the grass route, placing in her last two such races, both at RD less 330 feet, she has a great trainer and the world s best jockey aboard, what more could we ask for? She Be Striking is very steady speed-wise and has hit the board in all three of her turf races, most recently in her first route, at RD less 330 feet, in which she placed with this sublime jockey aboard, look for her to put this field to the test. Decorating (we don t know who her rider is at this point) has hit the board in both turf races in which she actually carried a jockey, and she is the only entry to have hit the board at RD, she has a good shot, and the degree of that depends on her newly-assigned rider. Likeable Longshot: (there is one for this race and there are several others, but such are not available in this free version you can go to Today s Full Race Card on this site and purchase today s full analysis for a mere $5, less than you pay for your DRF or Racing Form, and they don t handicap for you OR you can subscribe for thirty (3) calendar days for a mere $20, at the same location on this website If you have a PayPal account you can easily make your purchase at PayPal.me/SailorBoston.thank you ) californinawinning.com (all rights reserved) Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.
Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?