Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 3, 1 Comparison of NWP wind speeds and directions to measured wind speeds and directions Astrup, Poul; Mikkelsen, Torben Krogh Publication date: 1 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA): Astrup, P., & Mikkelsen, T. (1). Comparison of NWP wind speeds and directions to measured wind speeds and directions. Roskilde: Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, Risø Nationallaboratoriet for Bæredygtig Energi. Denmark. Forskningscenter Risoe. Risoe-R, No. 1715(EN) General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Comparison of NWP wind speeds and directions to measured wind speeds and directions Risø-R-Report Poul Astrup and Torben Mikkelsen Risø-R-1715(EN) September 1
Author: Poul Astrup and Torben Mikkelsen Title: Comparison of NWP wind speeds and directions to measured wind speeds and directions Division: Wind Energy Division Risø-R-1715(EN) September 1 Abstract (max. char.): Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) of wind speed and direction has been compared to measurements for seven German sites for nuclear power plants, and for Risø, the site of the Danish nuclear research reactors now being decommissioned. For the German sites the data cover approximately three month, the NWP data from Austrian Meteorological and Geophysical Office, AMGO, cover 5th January to 31st March 9 with two daily sets of analysis and 1 to hours forecasts, the measured data cover the full three month, i.e. from 1st January, with 1 minute resolution. For the Risø site NWP results of the HIRLAM code from Danish Meteorological Institute were once stored for two thirds of a year, i.e. 117 times analysis and 1 to 5 hour forecast within the period 1st October 199 to 3th September 1999, and 1 minute averaged measured data are available since November 1995. ISSN 1- ISBN 97-7-55-3791-5 Contract no.: EURANOS project. Contract No: FIR-CT-- 53. Group's own reg. no.: 11355- Sponsorship: This work has received partial financial support from the European Commission Sixth Framework Programme (Nuclear Fission/Radiation Protection) under the EURANOS integrated project: European approach to nuclear and radiological emergency management and rehabilitation strategies (Contract No: FIR-CT-- 53). Cover : Pages: 3 Tables: References: Information Service Department Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy Technical University of Denmark P.O.Box 9 DK- Roskilde Denmark Telephone +5 775 bibl@risoe.dtu.dk Fax +5 7713 www.risoe.dtu.dk
Contents Introduction 5 Danish research site Risø 5 German nuclear power plant sites 9 Brunsbüttel 9 Brokdorf 1 Krümmel 15 Obrigheim 1 Philippsburg Neckarwestheim 5 Isar Brokdorf-Krümmel, Obrigheim-Philippsburg 33 Conclusion 33 References 33 Risø-R-1715(EN) 3
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Introduction Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) of wind speed and direction has been compared to measurements for seven German sites for nuclear power plants, and for Risø, the site of the Danish nuclear research reactors now being decommissioned. For the German sites the data cover approximately three month, the NWP data from Austrian Meteorological and Geophysical Office, AMGO, cover 5th January to 31st March 9 with two daily sets of analysis and 1 to hours forecasts, the measured data cover the full three month, i.e. from 1st January, with 1 minute resolution. For the Risø site NWP results of the HIRLAM code from Danish Meteorological Institute were once stored for two thirds of a year, i.e. 117 times analysis and 1 to 5 hour forecast within the period 1st October 199 to 3th September 1999, and 1 minute averaged measured data are available since November 1995. For each site the comparison consists of scatter plots of NWP versus measured data for wind speeds and directions at each measurement height, the direction plots for some sites using different symbols for measured wind speed at lowest measurement level being above or below a set threshold given in the legend. The plots are followed by tables of means and standard deviations of the differences NWP minus measured data. The NWP results are referred to the measurement sites by so called inverse square distance interpolation between the nearest NWP points and to the measurement heights by vertical interpolation following similarity theory, van Ulden and Holtslag (195). Speed and direction differences are taken as NWP minus measured, the direction difference normalized to stay within plus and minus 1 degree. The order of the sites in this report is geographically from north to south. Figure 11 points out the sites on a map. Danish research site Risø The Risø site has the geographical coordinates 55.9 N, 1. E and is situated on a small peninsula in the Roskilde Fjord. The comparison NWP to mast data has been done for the analysis time and for the 5 hour forecast, for wind speed for three heights:. m, 7. m, and 15. m above ground, and for wind direction for 7. m and 15. m. Wind direction is not measured at. m. The wind direction comparison is further split on measured wind speed at. m being above or below 5 m/s. Figure 1 left column shows plots for the analysis hours, right column for 5 hour forecasts. The NWP data for wind speed are as an average slightly under predicted and increasingly so with height, while the mean direction difference NWP minus measured is pretty low, below 5 at analysis time, but with a standard deviation of approximately 5 which however reduces to 15 if only times with wind speeds above 5 m/s at. m is taken into account. The 5 hour forecasts behave expectedly, both speed and direction standard deviations increase, although very little, and the 5 hour forecasts compare to data almost as well as the analysed NWP. Means and standard deviations for speed and direction differences are listed in table 1. Risø-R-1715(EN) 5
Risø,. m. 5 NWP wind speed [m/s] NWP wind speed [m/s] Risø,. m. 5 15 1 15 1 5 5 5 1 15 5 5 1 Risø, 7. m. 5 NWP wind speed [m/s] NWP wind speed [m/s] 5 5 15 1 5 15 1 5 5 1 15 5 5 1 15 Risø, 15. m. 5 Risø, 15. m. 5 NWP wind speed [m/s] NWP wind speed [m/s] Risø, 7. m. 5 15 1 15 1 5 5 5 1 15 15 5 5 1 15 Risø-R-1715(EN) 5
3 Risø, 7. m. Wind speed <5 m/s. 3 Risø, 7. m. Wind speed <5 m/s. 7 7 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 3 Risø, 7. m. Wind speed >5 m/s. 3 Risø, 7. m. Wind speed >5 m/s. 7 7 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 3 Risø, 15. m. Wind speed <5 m/s. 3 Risø, 15. m. Wind speed <5 m/s. 7 7 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Risø-R-1715(EN) 7
3 Risø, 15. m. Wind speed >5 m/s. 3 Risø, 15. m. Wind speed >5 m/s. 7 7 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg] 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Figure 1. 117 sets of DMI HIRLAM results for Risø compared to measured data. Left column: analysis hours; right column: 5 hour forecasts. Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s]. -.17 1.375 117..5 1.755 115 7. -.3 1.5 11 7..57 1.9 1 15. -.579 1.553 117 15..1 1.93 115 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 7. 1.. 117 7.. 7. 115 15...3 117 15. 7.9 5. 115 Measured wind speed at. m < 5 m/s Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 7..3 3. 7.. 3.7 375 15. 1. 35.1 15.. 37.3 375 Measured wind speed at. m > 5 m/s Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 7..1 1. 11 7..3 1. 15. 5.7 1.5 11 15..7 1.3 Table 1. Statistics of differences between DMI HIRLAM results and Risø data. Left columns: analysis hours; right columns: 5 hour forecasts. Risø-R-1715(EN)
German nuclear power plant sites Ten minute resolution measurements of wind speed and direction, temperature and other meteorological parameters have been made available by Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz (BsF), the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection, for the period 1st January to 31st March 9 for the following German nuclear power plant sites: Neckarwestheim, Obrigheim, Philippsburg, Isar, Brokdorf, Brunsbüttel, and Krümmel. Numerical weather predictions (NWP) for areas covering these plant sites and for almost the full mentioned period, i.e. from 5th January, have been made available by AMGO, the Austrian Meteorological and Geophysical Office. These predictions consist of two daily sets with analysis ( hour forecast) and hourly forecasts until hour. Comparisons of NWP to measured wind speed and direction have been made for all measurement heights at all seven plant sites, for the analysis time and for the hour forecast, the reported site order being from north to south, i.e. Brunsbüttel, Brokdorf, Krümmel, Obrigheim, Philippsburg, Neckarwestheim, and Isar. Brunsbüttel Brunsbüttel at 53.91 N, 9. E is situated at the river Elbe in north western Germany very close to the North Sea. At Brunsbüttel there are three measurement heights, 1 m, m and 1 m. Figure shows the scatter plots of the numerical weather predictions versus the measured data, and table lists means and standard deviations of their differences. The NWP wind speeds are on average pretty close to the measured, both at analysis time and at hours forecast, the scatter growing reasonably with time. For higher wind speeds at 1 m the NWP tends towards under prediction. There are some instances of almost zero measured wind speed, especially at 1 m. It looks like measurement errors but as they due to their small number only affect the statistics marginally and as it seems that errors have already been filtered out, they are kept in. The wind directions are slightly over predicted at the two lower heights, but good at 1 m. Again, as reasonable, scatter, i.e. standard deviation, is higher at hours forecast than at analysis time. 1 Brunsbüttel, 1 m. 1 Brunsbüttel, 1 m. 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN) 9
1 Brunsbüttel, m. 1 Brunsbüttel, m. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Brunsbüttel, 1 m. Brunsbüttel, 1 m. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 Brunsbüttel, 1 m. 3 Brunsbüttel, 1 m. NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 7 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 7 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 1 Risø-R-1715(EN)
3 Brunsbüttel, m. 3 Brunsbüttel, m. NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 7 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 7 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 3 Brunsbüttel, 1 m. 3 Brunsbüttel, 1 m. NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 7 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 7 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Figure. NWP results for Brunsbüttel compared to measured data. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s] 1..35 1. 171 1..955 1.1 17..19 1.7 171..7.17 17 1. -.33 1.9 171 1..9.59 17 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 1. 1.95 1. 19 1. 13.1 3.7 1. 1.19 19.1 171. 13.5 33.5 17 1..7 1. 171 1. 5.797 9.5 17 Table. Statistics of differences between NWP results and Brunsbüttel data. Left columns: analysis time; right columns: hour forecast. Risø-R-1715(EN) 11
Brokdorf The Brokdorf plant at 53.51 N, 9.3 E is situated in flat terrain on the bank of river Elbe approximately 1 km upstream from the Brunsbüttel plant for which reason neither NWP nor measured data can be very different from those for that plant. There are three measurement heights at Brokdorf: 19 m, m and 1 m. Figure 3 shows the scatter plots of the numerical weather predictions versus the measured data, and table 3 lists means and standard deviations of their differences. The NWP results for Brokdorf and for Brunsbüttel are as identical as they can be, and the same is true for the measurement, so the comments written for Brunsbüttel is valid here too except that there seems to be no erroneous next to zero wind speeds here. 1 Brokdorf, 19 m. 1 Brokdorf, 19 m. 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Brokdorf, m. Brokdorf, m. 1 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN)
Brokdorf, 1 m. Brokdorf, 1 m. 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 Brokdorf, 19 m. 3 Brokdorf, 19 m. NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 7 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 7 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 3 Brokdorf, m. 3 Brokdorf, m. NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 7 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 7 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Risø-R-1715(EN) 13
3 Brokdorf, 1 m. 3 Brokdorf, 1 m. NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 7 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 7 1 9 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Figure 3. NWP results for Brokdorf compared to measured data. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s] 19..3 1. 17 19. 1.95 1.75 1. -.7 1.3 17..39 1.91 13 1. -.19 1.9 171 1. -.99.1 17 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 19. 1.99 3.7 17 19. 13.53 3.31 1. 1.31.77 17. 13. 3.3 13 1. 1. 19.7 171 1. 1.95 3.59 17 Table 3. Statistics of differences between NWP results and Brokdorf data. Left columns: analysis time; right columns: hour forecast. 1 Risø-R-1715(EN)
Krümmel The Krümmel plant at 53.11 N, 1.1 E is situated at the river Elbe approximately 5 km southeast of the Brokdorf plant and 3 km southeast of Hamburg and so somewhat more inland than the coastal plants. There are three measurement heights at Krümmel: 7 m, 5 m and 1 m. Figure shows the scatter plots of the numerical weather predictions versus the measured data, and table lists means and standard deviations of their differences. The NWP results for Krümmel show very much over predicted wind speeds at the two lower heights while wind directions are pretty good with some, but not all of the worst outliers corresponding to very low wind speeds. Only looking at wind speed above 1 m/s reduces the wind direction scatter somewhat for the analysis times but not much for the hours forecast. 1 Krümmel, 7 m. 1 Krümmel, 7 m. 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Krümmel, 5 m. 1 Krümmel, 5 m. 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN) 15
1 Krümmel, 1 m. Krümmel, 1 m. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Krümmel, 7 m. Wind speed at 7 m > 1 m/s Wind speed at 7 m < 1 m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Krümmel, 7 m. Wind speed at 7 m > 1 m/s Wind speed at 7 m < 1 m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Krümmel, 5 m. Wind speed at 7 m > 1 m/s Wind speed at 7 m < 1 m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Krümmel, 5 m. Wind speed at 7 m > 1 m/s Wind speed at 7 m < 1 m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 1 Risø-R-1715(EN)
NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Krümmel, 1 m. Wind speed at 7 m > 1 m/s Wind speed at 7 m < 1 m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Krümmel, 1 m. Wind speed at 7 m > 1 m/s Wind speed at 7 m < 1 m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Figure. NWP results for Krümmel compared to measured data. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s] 7. 3.91 1.7 19 7. 3.913. 15 5.. 1.9 19 5. 3..3 15 1..75.5 19 1. 1.9. 15 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 7. 11.359 31.5 19 7. 1. 35.5 15 5. 13.13 3. 15 5. 13.53 3. 11 1. 13.11 5. 19 1. 1. 35.13 15 Measured wind speed at 7 m > 1 m/s Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 7. 1.117 1. 1 7. 1. 31.71 1 5. 1.1 1.7 1 5. 1.335 31.7 1 1. 13.957 19.7 1 1. 13.73 3.3 1 Table. Statistics of differences between NWP results and Krümmel data. Left columns: analysis time; right columns: hour forecast. Risø-R-1715(EN) 17
Obrigheim The Obrigheim plant is situated at 9.3 N, 9.7 E at the river Neckar, a tributary to the Rhine river. The meteorological measurements here are at m, m, and m above ground. Figure 5 shows the scatter plots of the numerical weather predictions versus the measured data, table 5 gives the statistics. The wind speeds are generally very low at Obrigheim, 5% of the measurements at m are below 1 m/s. The NWP wind speeds are over predicted at all heights, and the direction difference standard deviation is very high, 55 to 5. Only looking at sets where the m wind speed exceeds 1 m/s the direction difference standard deviation reduces to between 3 and 5. The m direction difference average is 3, far from the 3 and at and m. Figure shows scatter plots of the measured directions at and m against those at m, plus the equivalent figures for the NWP results. Although with great scatter, the m measured directions do seem to some extent to cluster approximately 3 below the and m directions. 1 Obrigheim, m. 1 Obrigheim, m. 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Obrigheim, m. 1 Obrigheim, m. 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN)
1 Obrigheim, m. 1 Obrigheim, m. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim, m. Wind speed at m > 1 m/s Wind speed at m < 1 m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim, m. Wind speed at m > 1 m/s Wind speed at m < 1 m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim, m. Wind speed at m > 1 m/s Wind speed at m < 1 m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim, m. Wind speed at m > 1 m/s Wind speed at m < 1 m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Risø-R-1715(EN) 19
NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim, m. Wind speed at m > 1 m/s Wind speed at m < 1 m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim, m. Wind speed at m > 1 m/s Wind speed at m < 1 m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Figure 5. NWP results for Obrigheim compared to measured data. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s]. 1.53 1.7 17..53.13 1. 1.7.11 19...3 15. 1.. 17..3.7 1 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg]. -3.9 9. 17. -.53. 1. 31.5.79 19..73. 15.. 57.9 17. -.71 1.75 1 Measured wind speed at m > 1 m/s Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg]. -5.1 3.5 97. -13.737.7 93. 37. 5.9 97. 9. 71. 93. -9.3 3. 97. -17.33 37. 93 Table 5. Statistics of differences between NWP results and Obrigheim data. Left columns: analysis time; right columns: hour forecast. Risø-R-1715(EN)
at and m 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim Wind direction at m Wind direction at m at and m 3 7 1 9 Obrigheim Wind direction at m Wind direction at m 9 1 7 3 at m 9 1 7 3 at m 3 Obrigheim Wind direction at m Wind direction at m 3 Obrigheim Wind direction at m Wind direction at m NWP wind direction [deg] at and m 7 1 9 NWP wind direction [deg] at and m 7 1 9 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at m 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at m Figure : Comparison of measured and predicted wind directions at and m to those at m. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. Risø-R-1715(EN) 1
Philippsburg Philippsburg at 9.5 N,.35 E, is situated at the Rhine river approximately midway between Karlsruhe and Mannheim. Wind speeds and directions are measured at three heights: 15 m, m, and 1 m. Figure 7 shows the scatter plots of the numerical weather predictions versus the measured data, and table lists means and standard deviations of their differences. The NWP wind speeds compare pretty well with the measurements although the lowest speeds are slightly under predicted. The wind mean direction differences are small, around 7, except at 15 m where it is 1, but the standard deviations are large, up to 5, but for winds above m/s at 15 m this standard deviation is just around. 1 Philippsburg, 15 m. 1 Philippsburg, 15 m. 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 Philippsburg, m. 1 Philippsburg, m. 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN)
1 Philippsburg, 1 m. Philippsburg, 1 m. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Philippsburg, 15 m. Wind speed at 15 m > m/s Wind speed at 15 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Philippsburg, 15 m. Wind speed at 15 m > m/s Wind speed at 15 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Philippsburg, m. Wind speed at 15 m > m/s Wind speed at 15 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Philippsburg, m. Wind speed at 15 m > m/s Wind speed at 15 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Risø-R-1715(EN) 3
NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Philippsburg, 1 m. Wind speed at 15 m > m/s Wind speed at 15 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Philippsburg, 1 m. Wind speed at 15 m > m/s Wind speed at 15 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Figure 7. NWP results for Philippsburg compared to measured data. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s] 15..33 1. 17 15..5 1.37 1..5 1.3 17.. 1.9 1 1. -.357 1. 17 1..1 1.95 1 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 15..1 5. 17 15. 1.9 9.3 1. 7.5 3.7 17. 5.15.97 1 1. 7.7 33.79 17 1. 1.31 3.97 1 Measured wind speed at 15 m > m/s Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 15. 17.7.77 11 15. 7.775.17 97..1. 11. -.357.7 97 1..79 17.7 11 1. -.33.3 97 Table. Statistics of differences between NWP results and Philippsburg data. Left columns: analysis time; right columns: hour forecast. Risø-R-1715(EN)
Neckarwestheim The Neckarwestheim plant at 9. N, 9.17 E is situated at river Neckar approximately 35 km (straight line distance) upstream of the Obrigheim plant. There are only two measurement heights: m and 5 m, the meter instrument being a SODAR, the 5 m a normal mast mounted instrument. Figure shows the scatter plots of the numerical weather predictions versus the measured data, and table 7 lists means and standard deviations of their differences. The NWP wind speed results are clearly low at m and somewhat high at 5 m. Wind direction scatter is large at both and 5 m and the average direction difference is at m and 5 at 5 m. Screening away m winds below m/s the direction scatter reduces somewhat but the mean direction difference does not. 1 Neckarwestheim, m. 1 Neckarwestheim, m. 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Neckarwestheim, 5 m. 1 Neckarwestheim, 5 m. 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN) 5
NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Neckarwestheim, m. Wind speed at m > m/s Wind speed at m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Neckarwestheim, m. Wind speed at m > m/s Wind speed at m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Neckarwestheim, 5 m. Wind speed at m > m/s Wind speed at m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Neckarwestheim, 5 m. Wind speed at m > m/s Wind speed at m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Figure. NWP results for Neckarwestheim compared to measured data. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. Risø-R-1715(EN)
Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s]. -1.77 1. 1. -1.5.7 15 5..519 1.3 17 5..55 1.91 13 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg]. 1.93 5.7 1. 11.997.7 15 5. 5.5 5.1 17 5. 3.95 75.15 13 Measured wind speed at m > m/s Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg]. 1.3 31.75 13. 1.3 7.9 1 5. 7.11 55. 1 5..5. 1 Table 7. Statistics of differences between NWP results and Neckarwestheim data. Left columns: analysis time; right columns: hour forecast. Risø-R-1715(EN) 7
Isar Isar at.5 N, 1.95 E is the south-eastern most plant treated, and the wind is here measured at five heights: 1 m, 7 m, 13 m, 1 m, and m. Figure 9 shows the scatter plots of the numerical weather predictions versus the measured data, and table lists means and standard deviations of their differences. At the lower heights the NWP wind speeds compare rather well at low speeds but generally over predicts at higher speeds. The over prediction however diminishes with height. The mean wind direction difference is around 5 degrees, the standard deviation decreasing with height from 5 to 7, these last numbers being halved if only looking at data sets where the 1 m wind speed exceeds m/s. For the hour forecast speed and direction scatter is somewhat higher but the average results not much different. 1 Isar, 1 m. 1 Isar, 1 m. 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 Isar, 7 m. 1 Isar, 7 m. 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN)
1 Isar, 13 m. 1 Isar, 13 m. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Isar, 1 m. Isar, 1 m. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Risø-R-1715(EN) 9
Isar, m. Isar, m. 1 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s], hours forecast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Isar, 1 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Isar, 1 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Isar, 7 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Isar, 7 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 3 Risø-R-1715(EN)
NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Isar, 13 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Isar, 13 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Isar, 1 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Isar, 1 m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 9 1 7 3 Risø-R-1715(EN) 31
NWP wind direction [deg] at analysis time 3 7 1 9 Isar, m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s NWP wind direction [deg], hours forecast 3 7 1 9 Isar, m. Wind speed at 1 m > m/s Wind speed at 1 m < m/s 9 1 7 3 Figure 9. NWP results for Isar compared to measured data. Left column: analysis time; right column: hour forecast. 9 1 7 3 Height speed diff [m/s] Height speed diff [m/s] 1.. 1. 17 1..93 1.77 1 7..9 1. 17 7. 1.11.3 1 13..71 1. 17 13. 1.1. 1 1..5 1.7 17 1..955.55 1..3 1.5 17..77.5 1 Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 1.. 53.9 17 1. 17.79 3.31 1 7..959 5.5 17 7. 1.11 57.3 1 13..5 3.5 17 13..35.1 1 1.. 31.3 17 1. 11.7.7 1. 13..7 17.. 3. 1 Measured wind speed at 1 m > m/s Height direction diff [deg] Height direction diff [deg] 1. 5.53 1.79 1 1. 3.3 33.5 9 7. 3.9 19.5 1 7..53 3.75 9 13..31 1.35 1 13. 19.31 31.9 9 1. 17.9 15.3 1 1. 1.73 3.3 9. 13.3 15. 1. 1.7 3. 9 Table. Statistics of differences between DWD results and Isar data. Left columns: analysis time; right columns: hour forecast. 3 Risø-R-1715(EN)
Brokdorf-Krümmel, Obrigheim-Philippsburg The NWP wind speeds at Brokdorf are very much the same as those at Krümmel, and those at Obrigheim very much the same as those at Philippsburg, see figure 1. This leaves the different discrepancies between measured and predicted values at the sites two and two to be caused by local circumstances not resolved by the NWP. 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s] at Krümmel 5 m agl. 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s] at Philippsburg 1 m agl. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s] at Brokdorf 1 m agl. 1 1 1 1 1 NWP wind speed [m/s] at Obrigheim m agl. Figure 1. Brokdorf to Krümmel and Obrigheim to Philippsburg NWP wind speed comparison. Conclusion Three month of wind speed and direction from twice daily numerical weather predictions have for analysis time and hours forecast been compared to measurements at seven German nuclear power plant sites. For the sites close to the North Sea and for the inland site Philippsburg the predictions of wind speed are on average rather close to the measured, but for sites not far from these, Krümmel respectively Obrigheim, the discrepancies are much larger. Concerning the wind directions the predicted values are on average almost everywhere larger than the measured, typically 15 to, Obrigheim being the only place with smaller predicted values than measured. The direction scatter is pretty large at most sites, but looking only at data sets for which the wind speed exceeds some limit, the scatter reduces somewhat while the average discrepancies don't really change. The relative large wind speed discrepancies at Krümmel and Obrigheim seem to be due to local circumstances not resolved by the NWP. The 15 m mast at the Danish Risø site is placed on relative flat terrain just east of a reasonable large body of water and so equals in terrain complexity the German sites near the North Sea coast, and the NWP results for Risø show equally good or perhaps slightly better correspondence with the measured data than what is seen at the mentioned German sites. References van Ulden A.P. and Holtslag A.A.M: Estimation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Parameters for Diffusion Applications. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, vol., pp. 119-17, 195. Risø-R-1715(EN) 33
Figure 11. Google Earth map with the comparison sites pointed out. 3 Risø-R-1715(EN)
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