Financial Institution for Development! Urban Growth: CHALLENGES International Conference on Sustainable Development through Quality Infrastructure/ Tokyo
Urban explosion in Latin America and the Caribbean 80% of LAC population live in cities Rural exodus over the last five decades 30 M left their homeland QUANTITATIVE & QUALITATIVE DEFICIT: housing, pubic space, green areas URBAN EXPANSION faster than demographic growth BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES PLANNING AND URBAN INVESTMENT Source: ONU Habitat Estado de Ciudades para América Latina y el Caribe
Integral and sustainable solutions for the development of projects Short term Priority solutions Sustainable solutions Regional solutions Forward planning ensuring long-term sustainability and competitiveness Regional vision that improve the quality of life and increase competitiveness Medium term Long-term Forward planning that addresses specific challenges
How do we do it?
The 3 baseline studies 0 PRELIMINAR TASKS Database compilation and analysis Field visits/ mapping of stakeholders Work plan The aim... to identify key measures that can be fed into the Action Plan in the field of GHG mitigation, vulnerability reduction and urban growth 1 CLIMATE CHANGE 2 VULNERABILITY AND 3 MITIGATION DISASTER RISK REDUCTION GHG Diagnosis (including a GHG inventory) and tendential projections 2050 Roadmap to GHG reduction with 2050 horizon: strategic framework and measures Selection of key natural disasters within the area of study Risk assesment considering climate change (when applicable) URBAN GROWTH STUDY Historical urban footprint Design of urban growth scenarios and urban footprint assesment with a 2050 horizon: Tendential, Smart, Intermediate
1 Diagnosis Urban growth methodology Territorial Layout Historical Urban growth analysis Existing Urban Footprint Analisys Strengths & Weaknesses
30.000 inhabitants 4 indigenous communities SEA COLOMBIA THE BLACK LINE THE SIERRA S HEART Source: SNSM, CTC, 2008
Territorial layout SIERRA NEVADA DE SANTA MARTA SERRANÍA DE PERIJA DIALOGUE between the urban growth and the local dynamics
Territorial layout Valledupar POPULATION: 386,000 SURFACE: 3,931 Ha
Historical Urban growth analysis Urban population growth/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban foorprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-1578 1954 1965 1973 1978 1982 1988 1999 2006 2012 2015 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-1578 1954 1965 1973 1978 1982 1988 1999 2006 2012 2015 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion 1578 1954 1954 1965 1965 1973 1973 1978 US 10,9 Ha 178 Ha 1064 Ha 589 Ha 1308 Ha
Historical Urban growth analysis Urban population growth/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint Crecimiento población urbana/ Urban footprint 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-1578 1954 1965 1973 1978 1982 1988 1999 2006 2012 2015 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-1578 1954 1965 1973 1978 1982 1988 1999 2006 2012 2015 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-1578 1954 1965 1973 1978 1982 1988 1999 2006 2012 2015 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion Superficie huella urbana (Ha) poblacion 1978 1982 1982 1988 1988 1999 1999 2006 2012 2015 1461 Ha 1765 Ha 1862 Ha 2531 Ha 3762 Ha
Urban population Urban growth evolution 1578-2015 500000 386,684 359,700 307,528 400000 300000 249,813 200000 100000 0 0 142,312 112,057 1578 26,442 1954 1965 1973 1978 1982 1988 1999 2006 2012 2015 Urban Footprint Surface (Ha) 3,762 4000 3500 3,046 3000 2,531 2500 2000 1500 1,064 1000 500 0 1,308 1,461 1,765 1,862 589 11 1578 178 1954 1965 1973 1978 1982 1988 2006 2012 2015 Density (Hab/Ha) 148 134 133 140 1999 120 105 100 97 97 94 1978 1982 1988 121 118 103 80 60 40 20 0 1578 1954 1965 1973 1999 2006 2012 2015
Weaknesses URBAN VOIDS INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS SOCIOSPATIAL SEGREGATION 275 ha (Com 2,3,4 y 5) 10% of urban area Strata 1-2 Strata 3 Urban Voids Informal Settlements Strata 4,5 y 6
Low accessibility New middle-class developments creating gated communities ONE entrance per 100 m
EXISTING HEIGHT AREA (ha) % 0 Floors 1367 45.7 1-2 Floors 1612 53.8 3-5 Floors 10,5 0.35 6-8 Floors 1,78 0.06 9-13 Floors 1,37 0.01 Housing typology/ UNIFAMILIAR Self-construction under NO Sismoresistent Code implementation Opporutnity for assisted self-help housing???
23% of residential surface is located in lower strata 30.000 inhabitants in low quality areas and High risk conditions
Strengths/ Valledupar and other cities URBAN DENSITY/ Compact and homogenous Densidad neta (Hab/Ha) Valledupar/ COLOMBIA 386.000 inhabitants 147 people/ha km Bridgetown/ BARBADOS 277.000 Inhabitants 44 people/ha km 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 30 44 44 47 55 57 72 78 80 83 87 127 134 144 147 185 15 10 5 5 10 15 0 Cumaná/ VENEZUELA 312.000 Inhabitants Average of density (ECSI) 88 people/ha
Strengths DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL IN THE LAND USE PLAN (POT) CAPACITY ANALYSIS BY URBAN TREATMENTS Demographic development 2015 2030 2050 386.684 524.818 642.883 Urban renewal 35.297 Consolidation 24.697 Proyected dwellings needed 2015 2030 2050 New developments/ urban área 190.217 63% 103.115 166.519 237.443 New developments/ expansion área 142.064 Total dwellings 392.275
2 Growth Scenarios Tendential/ smart/ intermediate Urban growth methodology Prospective Recomendations
Scenario results EXISTING TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE SURFACE (ha) URBAN DENSITY (hab/ha) GREEN AREAS (m2/ha) TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE EXISTING TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE EXISTING TENDENTIAL SMART INTERMEDIATE
Scenario results TENDENTIAL/ Business as usual INTERMEDIATE SMART COMPARATIVE COSTS ANALYSIS
Challenges and lessons QI is not an end, it s the vehicle LOCAL SOLUTIONS to global problems RESEARCH & PRACTICITY are possible DO-THANK/ Learning by doing