BOB SELVIN S ODDS ANALYSIS at DEL MAR for FRIDAY COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping. PASSING RACES: When you see PASS or first, my suggestion is to PASS the race because I feel that race is either boring, valueless, is too complicated or has too many question marks. The play is up to you. When I suggest a play first and then indicate or PASS, my suggestion is to lean toward playing, but I'm obviously not crazy about or very interested in that race and it can easily be passed. BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value. PICK 3, PICK 4 OR PICK 5: I also do not play these horizontal wagers randomly, but judiciously. Sometimes I don't play them at all. I don t suggest these plays just so I can claim that I hit one the next day. TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don t have a top choice. MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn t mean they can t win, but as I ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU. IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS TO GET THE MOST OUT OF MY SEMINAR: I provide you with my own TING ODDS on my main contenders in a race. This game is based on VALUE. Comparing the actual track odds to my fair odds and deciding on a play means SOME JUDGMENT ON YOUR PART IS REQUIRED!! A winning player needs to be flexible. OFTEN my top choice(s) could be overbet well below my fair odds and my secondary contenders then could offer much better value. Don t hesitate to play a nice overlay or PASS races when my choices are being overbet! (Unfortunately, any LATE
SCRATCHES of contenders within a given race will make my fair odds INACCURATE.) Always remember if you don t get it, don t bet it. *** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN S if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention! ALWAYS LET ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched. WHAT ARE ODDS?: This is my assessment of a fair price on each contender. Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It s that easy. My selections aren t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd overbets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds. TRIFECTAS PLAYS CAN BE MADE MORE AFFORDABLE: They can be turned into fractions of $1 by purchasing.10 cent superfectas instead and including the horses in the third (or show) position in the four position as well. This also makes it more affordable for you to include horses you like. WHAT SEPARATES MY PRODUCT FROM OTHER PURCHASABLE SO. CALIF. HANDICAPPING PRODUCTS AND THE EDGE YOU GET: My fair odds take the entire field into consideration, including non contenders, and normally balance out at 112%. I purposely do this to insure that my fair odds are OVERLAYS after factoring in the state takeout on win wagers which is 15.3%. Racetrack morning lines are normally made by adding 100% probability + 15.3% for takeout + 1% per horse for breakage. In other words, an eight-horse field should total about 124-125% when converting odds to
probability percentages. By considering my fair odds in your handicapping, or, better yet, the adjacent VGB odds, you should be getting at least a 10% edge or more. What other purchasable So. Calif. handicapping products put their balls on the line and offer BOTH their own BALANCED, fair odds line AND incisive notes, commentary, stats and workout tidbits from colleague clocker Andy Harrington s workout report? RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. However, these are NOT Best Plays. DEMAND WIN: This is not offered to confuse you! It is offered to lead you to the best value. Suggested demand win means just that = demand the given fair odds to make a win play. Some races there will be more than one win play. Others none at all. If two horses are both at suggested demand win odds, check the board for the one with better odds or bet them both to win or do not bet to win. Some judgment on your part is required. REMINDER: This product purposely comes out LATE to incorporate whatever scratches and changes I find out about so that I can provide the best fair odds line I can (and write the copy that I do). It is not to inconvenience anyone. *In order to expedite publishing FOA and hopefully make it available a little earlier, commentary may be limited depending on the race. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Very good results in the (1 st ) and (6 th ) races. Nothing else much on the day other than that. THE PRICE IS RIGHT COMMENTS - - No Best Plays. Three shaded races. Late Pick 4. Late Pick 3.
*** REMINDER: I do not cover Los Alamitos. After this week, I ll be back on line Dec. 26 opening day at Santa Anita. *** *** ATTENTION: Most of the money comes in LATE. Due to frequent late odds changes, suggested demand win fair odds are ACCEPTABLE at two ticks lower than fair odds through 11/1. Example: suggested demand win fair odds 3/1 are ACCEPTABLE at 2/1. Suggested demand win fair odds of 12/1 or higher are ACCEPTABLE at three ticks lower than fair odds. Example: demand win fair odds of >12/1 are ACCEPTABLE at 9/1 and so forth. >> Thus, the term ABOUT is now used instead of just. In cases where the top horses are close in odds, take the one that is the best price, bet both to win, or just play the exacta. 1st Demand win 1 TWIRLING TIGER >2/1 (8/5 is acceptable); exacta box 1-4, 4-1 With the track listed good, TWIRLING TIGER looks solid as he drops back down a notch to $16,000 after a good try for $20,000 racing wide. He turned in a sharp half mile work at Los Al on Nov. 24 striding out past the wire in 1:01.1h according to Andy. Best of all, he s by Twirling Candy whose has a strong angle with offspring racing on an off track. OUT OF PATIENCE has his problems and thus does not campaign with any regularity. He s run well fresh in the past and has nine works leading up to this return and has looked very good in his recent ones. 1 TWIRLING TIGER 2/1 5/2 2 PIONEEROF THE WEST 5/1 6/1 3 LINDANTE 8/1 10/1 4 OUT OF PATIENCE 2/1 5/2 5 HOLLAND ROAD 9/2 6/1 2 nd 3 LADY KIM on top, exacta box 3-5-6 or PASS. With four of the eight entrants first or second starters, no fair odds. Horrible maiden $32,000 for 2-year-old fillies. Worth passing. For the desperate, morning line choices SASS MACHINE and ATHLEISURE are the ones to beat. MACHINE ran evenly in her debut behind next out winner Staythirstymyamigo. ATHLEISURE drops out of state-bred maiden $50,000 down to open maiden $32,000 and at least has been competitive. LADY KIM showed nothing in her debut vs straight maidens. She was an uninspiring 70/1 as well. However, she s working well (B-) and drops in
for maiden $32,000 and gets Maldonado for the hustle. That may be enough to spring a mild upset. 2 CAT HOLIC 3 LADY KIM 5 SASS MACHINE 6 ATHLEISURE 7 CURRYFORTHREE BANG 8 A DIME FOR ME ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS: *** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. AND, make sure the copy (names of horses) jives with the numbers. I can t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur. 3 rd -- 5 IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE on top, if they have five-horse trifectas play two tickets: $5 5 w/ 1-2-3-6 w/ 1-2-3-6; $5 1-2-3-6 w/ 5 w/ 1-2-3-6; if not, turn the play into exactas 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 5-6, 1-5, 2-5, 3-5, 6-5 Five go. These were entered for turf, but now race on good main track, so know fair odds due to surface change. IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE has not been out since Sept., 2017. Thus, he missed the last three months of his 2-year-old campaign and most all his 3-year-old campaigning finally returning today, the end of the 11 th month of the year. Note he ran in two very strong races the first won by Bolt d Oro in Aug. 2017 and the next on Sept. 30, 2017 in which four horses came out of that race to win their next start. Returns with blinkers off and Baze rides. And another positive is that he s not entered in a claiming race despite the very long layoff. Note that his sire Orb is MUCH better with winners racing on dirt than turf. He s the longest shot in the five-horse field. 1 PITINO Bon 2 GOLDIE S HILLS 3 SEAHAWK WAVE 5 IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE 6 HONOR GUARD
4 th Demand win 3 EMPRESS OF LOV >3/1 (2/1 is acceptable); exactas 3-2, 2-3, 3-7, 7-3, 3-9, 9-3 EMPRESS OF LOV was off between Sept. 28, 2018 and Nov. 17, 2018 and acquitted herself nicely for $25,000 with apprentice Luis Fuentes aboard. She s back on short rest, a positive sign and stretches out to 7 furlongs today, which should very much help. She s a mid pack stalker type with speed horses We Will Re Joyce (down on rail), Ciao Luna and Eskenforadrink to set it up for her. Note rider switch from Fuentes to Van Dyke. Guessing the good track hasn t dried out as yet and if not, that should really help LOVE and also ESKENFORADRINK. CINNAMON TWIST might destroy these if she shows up ready to run. Was claimed by Koriner last May 13 for $32,000, but is entered today for $16,000. That s not good business unless there s a reason (as we assume) for the drop. 1 WE WILL RE JOYCE 6/1 8/1 2 CINNAMON TWIST 7/2 9/2 3 EMPRESS OF LOV 3/1 4/1 5 BRAGGING RIGHTS 6/1 8/1 7 ESKENFORADRINK 4/1 5/1 9 EASTER DREAM 7/1 9/1 PICK FOUR (5-6-7-8) $5 1 w/ 3-5-10-11 w/ 3-4-6 w/ 5 5 th 1 PLATINUM NIGHTS on top, no exactas. Late, late scratch of favored Reedley turns this race into four starters. No Fair Odds. I ll take NIGHTS to beat the other three a weak, nothing of a race. Imagine a $36,000 purse for high-priced maiden claimers with only FOUR starters and one is going to be a pretty big price. Scratch of Reedley came in after 11 a.m. 1 PLATINUM NIGHTS
2 EASY SHOT 3 FROZEN MONEY 7 RED VALOR IMPORTANT NOTE: I realize that you are paying for this seminar to get educated selections. However, I can t control how the public bets them. And the crowd in So. Calif. loves to pound and overbet favorites. Demand win odds = at or greater than > Any selections that I have made that are bet below my fair odds more than two ticks should be NEGATED in favor of any 25% or higher overlays on my other contenders that I have assigned fair odds to. Or you may consider betting my top selection(s) and/or any 25% overlays. Pay attention. The crowd often makes mistakes! Some JUDGMENT on YOUR PART is REQUIRED! I will try to point these out in the archived recaps How We Did in Recent Past Days whenever possible. *FIND US ON FACEBOOK at NATIONAL TURF PLEASE LIKE OUR PAGE PICK THREE (6-7-8) $5 3-5-10-11 w/ 3-4-6 w/ 5 6 th 10 EXTRORDINARY JERRY and 11 MAGIC MUSKETIER co-top choice win bets; exactas 10-3, 10-5, 10-11, 11-3, 11-5, 11-10 Off the turf. Moved to dirt. No fair odds. EXTRORDINARY JERRY S grass form at this first allowance condition level converts well if he takes to the dirt. MAGIC MUSKETIER has been a troubled sort at times, clouding his form. Last out, on turf, had absolutely no chance, yet was only beaten a length. Also note that Hollendorfer isn t at all afraid to class drop his stock. Yet he s given MUSKETIER numerous chances to win this condition (and failed) he would be in a claimer if Hollendorfer didn t think he still has upside. Major Cabbie continues to train well for the ice cold Hendricks barn. Maybe he gets a different type of trip today. Cupid s Claws was a very late scratch.
3 SHADOW SPHINX 5 MAJOR CABBIE 7 >>SCRATCHED<< 10 EXTRORDINARY JERRY 11 MAGIC MUSKETIER 12 ZESTFUL 7 th -- Demand win 4 IMPERIAL CREED >5/2 (9/5 is acceptable) and 6 PROUD EMMA >9/2 (7/2 is acceptable); exacta box 3-4-6 IMPERIAL CREED was moved to dirt and dropped in class to maiden $40,000 to score an impressive win for the level in hand. Only question is that she s had only recent three workouts since her last race day, Oct. 5. I ll give sharp trainer Michael McCarthy an okay nod on this one. Kentucky shipper PROUD EMMA was made eligible to this condition by winning that maiden $50,000 at Keeneland vs. a large field. Looked good in here Nov. 24 drill (grade B-). Positive sign that Mike Smith takes the mount for Machowsky. This is the first mount he s been on for Machowsky this entire year so far. STAYTHIRSTYMYAMIGO is too big a price at 8/1 on program. After third straight win. Hasn t been two turns yet, but will either be on the lead or a forward factor. 1 DIVINE DHARMA 9/2 6/1 2 VEGAS STRONG BABY 7/1 9/1 3 STAYTHIRSTYMYAMIGO 4/1 5/1 4 IMPERIAL CREED 5/2 3/1 6 PROUD EMMA 4/1 5/1 7 SECRET MANEUVER 10/1 13/1 8 th 5 RAPID RED on top (single), exactas 5-4, 5-7, smaller revertse 4-5, 7-5 Off the turf to dirt. No Fair Odds due to surface switch. Seven go. RAPID RED handles the dirt and handles the wet surface if needed (assuming the track perhaps dried out by this last race. Looks like a short price. LAUREN S LADD has run well fresh in the past and taking a nice class drop. He is back in the Baltas barn. THE BIG TRAIN was claimed last out but was returned to the Miller barn. He s back in the same class of race, but on dirt. The fact that Prat is riding him back and also TRAIN sporting a healthy work tab, gives him an okay. 1 BROKEN UP 3 VAN CORTLANDT
4 THE BIG TRAIN 5 RAPID RED 7 LAUREN S LADD 9 COMES THE DREAM