THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 3/3/17 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! LEG 1 (R5): Even though leg one consists of only six horses, we ve still got a pretty challenging $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 today, and that s because the whole sequence consists of entirely fickle female runners, so it wouldn t shock me if some chaos entered into the equation. So trust no one, and hope for the best! We kick things off with a $62.5K optional-claiming/n2x for fillies and mares contested at 10- furlongs on the turf. The rails are at 30-feet, and that always favors speed, but there are a few forwardly placed runners in here, so I wouldn t count out the stretch runners so easily. #1 QUEEN BLOSSOM (IRE) (5/2) has absolutely no early speed, and that s a big problem in this short field, since Espinoza will not only have to be an astute judge of pace, but he ll also have to make sure she doesn t lose touch with the rest of the field. Her two U.S. races saw her launch mild late bids against tougher foes, so the class relief should help, but note that the normally reliable Graham Motion has been ice-ice-baby so far this meet. GRADE: C. #2 SALSITA (4/1) is a professional race mare, finishing in the money in more than half of her 16 turf starts and notching 5 wins, including a strong closing run last time to beat $40K claimers at a mile. She was claimed out of that race by Mullins, who promptly bumps her up in class and stretches her out. Her nice stretch run suggests she could handle the added ground, but note that her one try beyond 8.5- furlongs wasn t her best. That said, she projects a good tracking trip, and she ll have first run on the deeper closers. GRADE: C. #3 CHEEKABOO (2/1) has done her best work at 9-panels, and since she has a very nice stretch run, I have to think that the added ground today should hit her right between the eyes, even though she s never been this far. She doesn t have much early speed, so Smith will have to be on full alert throughout the early running, but if this gal gets an honestly run race, she should be steaming like a locomotive at the eighth pole. GRADE: A. #4 PEACH COVE (NZ) (6/1) projects the best trip, sitting right off the outside horse, just biding her time. The distance, however, is a bit of a question mark, as this gal began her career sprinting in New Zealand before coming to the U.S., where she ran the worst race of her life when going 9-furlongs at Del Mar. She did lack her customary tactical speed that day after a slow start, so maybe you can forgive that race, especially since Prat will have her in a perfect spot throughout the running then we ll see if the great Mandella has the stamina part sorted out. GRADE: B. #5 DRESSED TO A T (9/2) seems to be the most suited to this race, considering she s won at both 9-furlongs and 11-furlongs, so today s 10-panels shouldn t pose a problem at all. This honest Cal-bred just ran third at this level off a brief freshening, and you can toss her last race where she encountered some trouble against a few of these. She also projects a good tracking trip. GRADE: B. #6 NINE POINT NINE (6/1) is a pace player s dream, since she has got plenty of early speed in a short field so if Kent can get away with easy fractions, he could give backers a thrill. As much as I like pace plays, I think this gal is a cut below the best in here, and I m not sure she wants any part of 10- furlongs. GRADE: C.
LEG 2 (R6): Today s second leg is a $20K maiden-claimer for fillies and mares going 5.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 MADERA JUBILEE (30/1) is 0-for-19, and her recent form has been the worst in her four years. If she wins, I lose. GRADE: X. #2 CANNED HEAT (4/1) was off slowly in her debut and she never got untracked after that. She now joins the Cerin barn for the first time while dropping in class and getting a 7-pound weight-break. I ve seen Cerin do well with this move before on the barn change, but this gal is a 5-year-old mare who will need a major step forward today. GRADE: C. #3 RECONCILING (10/1) drops to the bottom after running evenly against $40K maidens back in October. The drop will help, but she ll need to be fit off just Los Al works, and she ll need an aggressive ride from Hernandez, who doesn t win too many races on this circuit. GRADE: C. #4 AVAUDREY (12/1) has speed but no stick, and that s a concern since she loses a 10-pound weight-break today. She ll be the one to catch early and I m sure she ll graduate one of these days because of her early speed but I think she ll get run down late. GRADE: X. #5 NIGHTY NIGHT (3/1) drops in after a few races against tougher Cal-bred MSWs, and if you look back to her early career form, you ll see that she did perfectly fine work at this level. She s making the second start of her form cycle and going turf-to-dirt. She s an obvious threat against these. GRADE: A. #6 HOLY CHIC (7/2) is coming off a very long layoff after not handling the downhill course last May against tougher. She returns with blinkers on and a good gate work in tow. She also gets an aggressive jock, so she appears to be live to me. GRADE: A. #7 SHE S MOVIN ON (20/1) is a first-time starter of modest breeding sent out by low-percentage connections. Moving on GRADE: X. #8 SOLEIL COUCHANT (4/1) just lost by a neck at this level last time, but it was a pretty slow race, and OptixNOTES has a negative comment about her not responding to the whip. If she gets into a dogfight in the lane, will she give up the ghost like she did last time, losing the lead, despite a perfect trip? We can use her defensively. GRADE: B. #9 MISS NAPPER TANDY (12/1) has run some respectable races at this level, but she s 0-for-10 and very much has the look of a pack animal at this point in her career. I suppose if everything goes well for her and the race falls apart, she could be swept along for a slice. GRADE: X. #10 JEOFFIE (8/1) is an off-the-pace plodder who will need a perfect set-up and a perfect trip from this tough outside post. She s 0-for-10, and unless the race falls apart, I think the minor awards are the ceiling for her. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R7): Today s third leg is a $16K claimer for older females going 6.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 CONQUEST SO TRUE (3/1) rarely runs a bad race, and this seems like the perfect level for her after beating $16K/N3L claimers two back pretty handily. She was claimed out of that race and bumped up in class, where she ran a pretty solid third against much tougher turf ladies. She now cuts back and switches to dirt. She should run a competitive race, but I really do hate the rail at these elongated sprint distances. Still, she s won from the rail before. GRADE: A. #2 PRINCESS KENDRA (5/1) is a closing sprinter who will need things to go her way early in order to set up her stretch run late. She s coming off a freshening after running second against $12.5K claimers, including one of today s foes who just beat her. Her best races have come against lesser, but note that Spawr has been on fire lately, and he s always been deadly off a layoff. GRADE: X. #3 PRINCESS ASHLYN (6/1) looked very sharp in her last race, beating $12.5K/N2L runners at even-money, despite a troubled trip. A repeat of that race would make her dangerous here, but this is a tougher level, and note that her two wins have come at 5-furlongs and 5.5-furlongs, so today s distance
might be pushing the envelope just a bit. That said, she came home very nicely last time, so maybe she s finally figuring things out. GRADE: B. #4 EASTER FEVER (5/2) has plenty of early speed, so expect bug-boy Solis to do what he did with her last time, blast out early and draw away late. That was a sharp win against $12.5K claimers, but she was 1/2 odds that day and expected to win. She was claimed by Ellis, who is below-average with new acquisitions, but her speed and the weight-break give her a chance. GRADE: C. #5 LOST IN LEXINGTON (8/1) has yet to win on dirt, but she does have synth races that fit at this level, so I think it s a vote of confidence that Wright brings her down here after a decent third up north at this very same level, where she came running on late at 5.5-furlongs. The added distance should suit her just fine. GRADE: B. #6 NAZERTH (10/1) is a career nibbler, with only 2 wins in 36 tries but with 15 minor placings! She hasn t been able to beat N3L foes, so a win against open-company doesn t seem very likely. That said, she should be running on late and she does get a 7-pound weight-break to help her cause. GRADE: X. #7 HERUNBRIDLEDPOWER (3/1) has tactical speed and seems like an obvious contender based on her consistency no matter what the level. Bonde just claimed her off Miyadi for $12.5K, and I like the move up in class for a gal who beat age-restricted $20K claimers a few races back. Plus, her recent works have been blazing. GRADE: A. LEG 4 (R8): We end today s proceedings with a pretty competitive Maiden Special Weight event for 3-year-old fillies going 6.5-furlongs down the hill a configuration that is tricky enough for veteran horses let alone lightly raced young fillies! #1 TANDA S JOY (6/1) is certainly bred to like the lawn, but we all know how tough it is to win from the rail going down the hill; this gal now has to make her very first start from this tricky post, and that makes me want to watch one, especially since she ll need to be fit off just Los Al works for a trainer who doesn t typically have them fully cranked. GRADE: X. #2 GO ARGENTO (8/1) has had several tries, but this is her first attempt down the hill, and considering she has route speed, I think she might like it. The blinkers come off and she s been freshened for this race, and there was a time when she was favored twice at the MSW level, so someone thought she could run. GRADE: A. #3 LADY PREACHER (9/2) ran a closing fourth in her debut back in November over this course. It was a nice effort for a first-time starter, but she got a hot pace to close into. She s been off since then, and her breeding suggests that she ll find her best stride going longer, but at least you know she has course experience and can pass horses. GRADE: B. #4 OF NOTE scratched. #5 DIVA LA MOUSSE (4/1) has plenty of early speed, but she hasn t had the stamina to get the job done, setting and pressing the pace in two down the hill events prior to this only to get overtaken in the lane. She has been freshened for this, and we know Baffert is great off this kind of layoff and you have to like that Smith returns but she ll need to do better from the sixteenth pole on. GRADE: C. #6 LINE (7/2) was 6/1 in her debut back in July of last year, and she packed it in early after a stalking journey. She now comes off a long layoff and switches to the turf. She s certainly bred to handle this surface, and her recent workouts have been sensational, but this is a long layoff to overcome, even though the connections are perfectly fine under this scenario. GRADE: B. #7 TIBOLI (GB) (15/1) debuts for Drysdale, who rarely has them fully cranked, although he s been better lately, scoring at 11 percent with his first-time starters. The breeding is there for this one to be a runner, but the works are just okay, and I suspect this gal will need a start or two before showing her best stuff. GRADE: X.
#8 TEN COUNT OUT (12/1) is a daughter of City Zip, so turf sprinting should be her game, but Miyadi, a very good trainer, is well below-average with his debutantes. I like that Baze takes the call, but I think this homebred might need one under her belt. GRADE: X. #9 ANOTHER ONE (6/1) gets back on turf, which is a good thing, since she showed a very nice late run when debuting at 5-furlongs on the Del Mar lawn back in December. Toss the off-the-track dirt race, and just focus on her solid come-home time in that abbreviated sprint, and she emerges as a solid contender. Plus, Talamo stays put. GRADE: A. #10 MAJESTIC VIXEN (12/1) showed speed in her debut but after a wide journey going 5- furlongs at Del Mar, she weakened. She now returns with blinkers on and with Lasix, and that is a big plus for a gal who showed speed and weakened in her only start. Speed drawn outside has always been dangerous on this course. GRADE: A. #11 SABURAI (10/1) didn t do much running on the turf when she was saddled up back East, but her two dirt races here on the West Coast, while moving into the hot Cerin barn, haven t been so bad. She s definitely bred to handle turf, so I expect a better effort today, especially since it looked like she wanted some more ground in her last race, going 6-furlongs on the dirt. She should also be super-fit making the third start of her form cycle. GRADE: C. #12 TRAPPIZA (12/1) (AE) had to break from the rail in her debut, going 6.5-furlongs on the dirt and that s not an easy thing to do for any horse let alone a young filly, so I can be forgiving there. Still, she will need a big step forward today, but maybe the switch to turf will bring out the best in her if you re a believer. GRADE: X. #13 ISLA CITY (8/1) (AE) has turf breeding but not necessarily precocious breeding, so it s possible this first-time starter is going to need some experience. I m happy watching one. GRADE: X. #14 PRINCESS NICOLE (X/1) scratched. SUGGESTED WAGER We ve got four tough female races in a row, so I m not sure spending $97 in here is the right move, especially since the last leg is the only one where we have good prices as A s and the logical runners in the previous three legs are extremely unreliable. A more reasonable $66 will get you all A s with two B s, and if you want to spend even less, $31 buys you all A s with one B. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. Also, for more information about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. Keep in mind: I don t add Also Eligibles to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!