Demographic Report 2017 The United Church of Canada

Demographic Report 2017 The United Church of Canada

Demographic Report Objective What are the future needs of the church? How many ministry personnel are needed?

Sources 2010 Demographics: Report from the Task Group on Demographics from the Permanent Committee for Ministry and Employment, Policies and Procedures. (Please see original report for sources: commons.united-church.ca, GCE November 13-15, 2010, Addendum L) Sept 29, 2017 Church Records Report: A snapshot report that was taken on that date (Sybase Database System) Church Records: Information generated from Church Records (Sybase Database System) on the date indicated Yearbook: Information taken from the published Yearbooks

General Trends

General Trends (Yearbook) 3878 3827 3719 3516 3709 3473 3196 2351 2286 2223 2894 2128 1996 1845 1731 1735 340 286 271 274 288 295 2000 2005 2010 2015 Preaching Places (Congregations) Pastoral Charges All Ordained Ministers All Diaconal Ministers All Designated Lay Ministers Ministry Personnel Serving Pastoral Charges

Number of Ministers Ordained Ministry (OM) Trends (Yearbook) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 OM serving Charges United Supply (OM) Retired Supply (OM) Interim (OM) Type of Position Special Ministries (OM) Retired (OM) Retained (OM) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Ministers Diaconal Ministry (DM) Trends (Yearbook) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 DM serving Charges United Supply (DM) Retired Supply (DM) Interim (DM) Type of Position Special Ministries (DM) Retired (DM) Retained (DM) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Ministers 160 Designated Lay Ministry (DLM) Trends (Yearbook) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 DLM-Recognized Serving Charges DLM - Applicants Serving Charges DLM in Other Ministries Retired (DLM) Type of Position 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Retained (DLM)

Gender and Age Distribution

TOTAL NUMBER OF MINISTERS (INCLUDING RETIRED) (4054): COMMISSIONED, ORDAINED, DLM RECOGNIZED (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Male, 2236, 55% Female, 1818, 45%

TOTAL NUMBER OF MINISTERS (COMMISSIONED, ORDAINED, DLM RECOGNIZED) UNDER 65 (2499) (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Male, 1117, 45% Female, 1382, 55%

Female Male Age Distribution of All Ministry Personnel (Sept 29, 2017 Church Records Report) Ordained Diaconal DLM Ordained Diaconal DLM 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 70 and over 61-70 51-60 41-50 31-40 30 and under

1600 Age Distribution for Ordered Ministers 2010 Comparison (2010 Demographics and Sept 29, 2017 - Church Records Report) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 30 and under 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 70-75 30 and under 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 70 and over 2010 2017 Female Male

Interesting Ages in 2017 (Sept 29, 2017 Church Records Report) Youngest Minister = 23 Oldest Minister = 110 Average Age of All Ministers = 59.4 Average Age (AA) of All Ministers under 65 = 54.8 AA of DLMs under 65 = 56.1 AA of Diaconal Ministers under 65 = 57 AA of Ordained Ministers under 65 = 54.9 Average Age of Ordained Ministry Personnel under 65 in 2010 = 52 (2010 Demographic Report)

New Ministry Personnel and Candidates

NUMBER OF MINISTERS NEWLY ORDERED MINISTERS BY GENDER (NEWLY COMMISSIONED AND ORDAINED) Female Male 12 15 7 16 8 14 12 34 30 24 27 27 24 17 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YEAR OF ENTRY

Average Age 60 Average Age of Newly Ordered Ministers at Entry 55 50 48.5 49.1 47.7 49.11 50 45 43 40 35 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year of Entry

NUMBER OF MINISTERS NEWLY ADMITTED MINISTERS BY GENDER Female Male 9 12 7 10 13 6 4 4 5 5 1 2 1 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YEAR OF ENTRY

Average Age 60 Average Age of Newly Admitted Ministers at Entry 56.2 55 53.6 50 50.4 50.6 49 51 45 45.9 40 35 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year of Entry

Recognized Designated Lay Ministers 2016-4 Female, 4 Male, Average Age: 59 2017-4 Female, 6 Male, Average Age: 62

Number of Ministers 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 46 45 15 Number of New Ministers each Year including Newly Ordered, Admitted/Readmitted, Recognized 5 39 14 43 5 35 12 38 29 15 16 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year 8 10 Commissioned/Ordained Admitted/Readmitted Designated Lay Ministers Recognized

Number of Candidates 225 Number of Candidates for Ordered Ministry (Yearbook) 220 220 215 214 210 205 208 206 209 205 200 195 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year

Retirees

Number of Retired Ministers 1760 Total Number of Retirees (Yearbook) 1740 1720 1700 1680 1660 1640 1699 1745 1620 1600 1650 2005 2010 2015 Year

Number of Ministers Retiring Number of Ministers Retiring (Church Records) 140 120 100 96 123 120 90 103 93 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year

Average Years Since Entry into Ministry at time of Retirement 35 30 25 20 15 Average Years Since Entry into Ministry for Ordered Ministers at the time of their Retirement (Church Records) 32.7 23.5 30.9 25.1 27.4 28.8 26.3 26 25.2 18.9 21 19.5 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Diaconal Ordained

Assignment Trends

MINISTERS WITH CURRENT ASSIGNMENTS (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Ordained, Retired, 133, 8% DLM - Recognized, 75, 5% DLM - Recognized, Retired, 18, 1% Ordained, 1246, 79% Diaconal, 96, 6% Diaconal, Retired, 9, 1%

MINISTERS WITHOUT CURRENT ASSIGNMENTS (SEPT 29, 2017 CHURCH RECORDS REPORT) Ordained, 387, 16% Diaconal, Retired, 152, 6% Diaconal, 38, 1% DLM - Recognized, Retired, 122, 5% Ordained, Retired, 1703, 69% DLM - Recognized, 75, 3%

Part-Time/Full-Time/Appointments/Calls (Sept 1, 2016 Church Records) Retired Supply 134 43 Ordered 91 238 86 897 DLM (Applicants and Recognized) 113 73 Part-Time Appointments Part-Time Calls Full-Time Appointments Full-Time Calls

Number of Ordered Ministers Serving 1400 Number of Ordered Ministers Serving in Calls and Appointments (Church Records) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2012 2016 Year Appointment Call

Number of Ministers Serving 1800 Full-Time vs. Part Time Positions 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2012 2016 Year Full-Time Part-Time

Restorative Care and Long Term Disability All Information from Restorative Care (RCP) and Long Term Disability (LTD) Minister Report 2017

Definitions Restorative Care Plan (RCP) Long Term Disability (LTD) The goal of the RCP is to support individuals during an illness or injury while they recover and prepare to return to their work safely. The RCP lasts six months. If Ministry Personnel or an Employee is away from work for longer than six months, he or she may be eligible for a transition to the long-term disability (LTD) plan. You continue to be covered under your group benefits plan if you go onto LTD, but you are not required to pay the premium for this coverage until you are no longer disabled or reach age 65. Your pension continues to grow while you receive LTD benefits.

MINISTERS ON RESTORATIVE CARE PLAN AS OF AUGUST 26, 2017 Student Supply or Designated Lay Minister, 3 Ordered Ministers, 26

Number of Ministers 80 Ministers on Long Term Disability 70 60 50 7 8 9 9 40 30 20 51 63 66 51 10 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Designated Lay Minister/Minister Serving in a Conference Office/Student Supply Ordered Minister

Variety of Diagnosis Number of Ministers with Variety of Diagnosis based on Open Claims in Period Number of Open Claims 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Mental Disorders Nervous System & Sendory Organs Cancer Accidents & Injury Musculoskeletal & Connective Tissue Circulatory System Digestive System Endocrine, Metabolic & Immunity Disorders Blood Diseases Other 2014 2015 2016 2017

Conclusions Fewer Ministers Serving Pastoral Charges, Fewer Pastoral Charges More Female Ministers under 65, and more Females becoming Ministers Ratio of females and males entering ministry has come closer together, especially with Admissions having more males Fewer Ministers Under 50, Growing Number of Ministers over 50 Fewer people becoming Ordered Ministers, currently slightly more Candidates Years Since Entry into Ministry Decreasing for those Retiring (fewer years of service?) Number of Retired Ministers Increasing 425 Ordered Ministers aren t working (393 Pastoral Charges without a Minister) More Part-Time Positions and more Appointments Mental Health is the largest cause of Insurance Claims

Looking to the Future

Pastoral Charges vs. Ministry Personnel Serving Pastoral Charges: Trends and Predictions

15 Year Trend by the numbers In the last 15 years, Pastoral Charges have been closing at an average of 14/year At this rate, by 2030 there will be 1918 Pastoral Charges In the last 15 years, Ministry Personnel Serving Pastoral Charges has been declining at an average of 17.4/year At this rate, by 2030 there will be 1474 Ministry Personnel Serving in Pastoral Charges

Number of Pastoral Charges and Ministers Serving Pastoral Charges 2500 2000 1500 1000 15 year trend - 14 Pastoral Charges Closing/Year and 87 fewer Ministers Serving Pastoral Charges/Year 2351 1996 2286 1845 2223 2128 1731 1735 2058 1648 1988 1561 1918 1474 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Pastoral Charges Ministry Personnel Serving

Number of Retirees and Ministers 150 100 105 Retirees vs. New Ministers (Church Records) 81 84 84 50 0 51 49 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Retirees New Ministers There has been an average 34 person gap between those retiring and new ministers being admitted, commissioned, or ordained in the last 5 years.

Gender Distribution Trends and Predictions (Source for next 4 slides: Annual New Ministers Demographic Report as Presented to The Permanent Committee on Ministry and Employment Policies and Services (PC-MEPs) since 2010)

AVERAGE NUMBER OF NEW ORDERED MINISTERS ENTERING BY GENDER (ADMITTED, COMMISSIONED, ORDAINED) EACH YEAR SINCE 2010 Male, 20.4, 41% Female, 29.4, 59%

AVERAGE NUMBER OF MINISTERS RETIRING EACH YEAR BY GENDER SINCE 2010 Male, 51, 52% Female, 47, 48%

Yearly Gender Swing Trend since 2010 In 2017 there were 1117 Male Ministers under the age of 65 Male Ordered Ministers are decreasing by an Average of 30.6 per year At this rate, by 2030 there will be approximately 719 Active Male Ministers In 2017 there were 1382 Female Ministers under the age of 65 Female Ordered Ministers are decreasing by an average of 17.6 per year At this rate, by 2030 there will be approximately 1153 Active Female Ministers

2030 GENDER DISTRIBUTION PREDICTION Male, 719, 38% Female, 1153, 62%

Average Age Trends and Predictions

Average Age of Ordained Ministers Since 2010 the Average Age of Ordained Ministers under the age of 65 has increased by.4/year From 52 in 2010 to 54.9 in 2017 At this rate, by 2030 the Average Age for an Ordained Minister under the age of 65 will be 60.1

Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry at Time of Retirement Trends and Predictions

Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry Since 2010 the Average Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry for Retiring Ordered Ministers has decreased by 0.22/year At this rate by 2030 the Average Years Since Entry into Ordered Ministry for retiring ministers will be 19 years

Assignment Trends

Percentage of Positions 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percentage of Calls and Appointments for Ordered Ministers if Current Trend Continues 81.8 79.6 79.4 78.2 76.7 75.2 18.2 20.4 20.6 21.8 23.3 24.8 2008 2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 Year %Appointment %Call

Percentage of Positions 80 70 60 Percentage of Full-Time vs. Part-Time Assignments if Current Trend Continues 73.4 71.1 66.9 63.7 59.6 55.6 50 40 30 26.6 28.9 33.1 36.3 40.4 44.4 20 10 0 2008 2012 2016 2020 2025 2030 Year Full-Time Part-Time

United Church of Canada Membership Trends

Numbers of People 651,002 United Church of Canada General Trends (Yearbook) 573,424 494,791 424,419 345,654 303,643 257,799 278,292 215,426 225,507 174,660 133,298 138,971 94,280 64,586 45,970 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Membership Membership of Sunday Schools Average Weekly Attendence Identifiable Givers to Local Expenses

Number of People United Church of Canada General Trends if Current Trends Continue (Yearbook) 651,002 573,424 494,791 424,419 345,654 367,971 303,643 319,031 257,799 276,600 278,292 215,426 225,507 183,974 157,114 174,660 134,175 133,298 138,971 94,280 110,343 87,612 64,586 69,564 45,970 32,225 22,590 15,836 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Membership Membership of Sunday Schools Average Weekly Attendance Identifiable Givers to Local Expenses

350 300 326 Number of Members per 1 Serving Ministry Personnel Future Trend based on Average % Decrease 311 286 250 200 245 223 203 185 150 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Number of Members per 1 Pastoral Charge Future Trends based on Average % Decrease 300 277 250 251 223 200 150 199 179 161 145 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Conclusions about the Future Ministry Personnel Needs of the Church

Conclusions There is a gap between Serving Ministry Personnel and Pastoral Charges, and in all of our trends there will be more Pastoral Charges than Serving Ministry Personnel More Ministry Personnel are needed Years Since Entry into Ministry for Retiring Ministers is Decreasing and the Average Age of Ministry Personnel is Increasing Younger Ministry Personnel are needed

Conclusions However, the number of Pastoral Charges and the number of Members is also decreasing and the ratio of Serving Ministry Personnel to Members has been decreasing (fewer Members per each Ministry Personnel Serving) Ministry Personnel that can serve greater distances needed More part-time positions and more appointments are being created (and fewer fulltime calls) Ministry Personnel that can work multiple part-time positions, or engage in bi-vocational calls are needed

Conclusions There are 425 Ordered Ministers who are not serving, 393 Pastoral Charges without Ministry Personnel Trained, qualified ministers need to serve the Pastoral Charges that need leadership Is this a Recruitment Issue? A Retention Issue? A Geographical Issue?

What are the future needs of the church? How many ministry personnel are needed? The numbers are important and need to increase but the type of Ministry Personnel we re recruiting is almost more important How do we realistically recruit for the future needs of The United Church of Canada? What resources do Pastoral Charges need to notice, name, nurture people in their congregations to consider ministry? What can be done to encourage people to consider ministry? What can be done to support Pastoral Charges in this work? What other questions need to be asked that haven t been?