Water industry perspective on the main groundwater management challenges. Luke de Vial Head of Water Resources and Supply

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Transcription:

Water industry perspective on the main groundwater management challenges Luke de Vial Head of Water Resources and Supply 2

Key 3

Natural History Museum Key Sources at risk from exceeding nitrate limits Water supply and sewerage services area Sewerage services only Water supply services only 4

Advantages of groundwater All being well groundwater provides Storage of water Clean water Low cost Low carbon 5

Management of groundwater Storage How much storage How do we manage our abstractions Relationship with river flows Clean Is it? Can we clean it up? 6

Groundwater storage 1km 2 10m thick 1% porosity 100 Ml 10km 2 10m thick 1% porosity 1000 Ml 50km 2 10m thick 1% porosity 5,000 Ml 1km 2 10m deep 100% porosity 10,000 Ml 7

Groundwater storage 1km 2 10m thick 1% porosity 100 Ml 10km 2 10m thick 1% porosity 1000 Ml 50km 2 10m thick 1% porosity 5,000 Ml 1km 2 10m deep 100% porosity 10,000 Ml 8

AQUIFER AQUICLUDE 9

AQUICLUDE AQUICLUDE 10

AQUICLUDE AQUICLUDE 11

Storage management Purpose of storage management Maximise yield Minimise impact on river flows 12

Maximise groundwater yield Use it or loose it A reservoir 13

Use it or lose it AQUIFER AQUICLUDE 14

Source output Ml/d 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Maximum source output for a given groundwater level 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 Regional groundwater level (maod) 15

AQUICLUDE AQUICLUDE 16

17

Recharge Storage Base flows / overflows 18

19

85.00 80.00 75.00 70.00 65.00 60.00 75.000 80.000 85.000 90.000 95.000 Observed Model 20

Manage the groundwater Predict how much water we can take out through the year Cut back in winter to save for summer use Tough call if source is low cost 21

Minimise impact on river flows Distance from river T S Drawdown is good 22

23

Difficult slide 15 10 5 ML/d 0-5 -10 Increase in Abstraction Rate (above 2 ML/d) Reduction in River Flow at South Newton PAYBACK -15 Jan 03 Feb 03 Mar 03 Apr 03 May 03 Jun 03 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03 24

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Simulated River Flow at South Newton Chitterne at 2 Ml/d PAYBACK Actual Chitterne Usage 25 Flow (ML/d) Jan 03 Jan 03 Feb 03 Mar 03 Mar 03 Apr 03 May 03 May 03 Jun 03 Jul 03 Jul 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Nov 03 Dec 03

How far can we push this storage concept? Malmesbury 26

Clean water 31

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Diversbridge (mg/l N) 16 Diversbridge Raw Sps 14 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 32

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Shepherds Shore (mg/l N) 30 Shepherds Shore Bh 1 Shepherds Shore Bh 2 25 Shepherds Shore Trtd Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 20 15 10 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 5 99%ile Peak Trend line 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 33

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Goodshill (mg/l N) 25 Goodshill Raw B/H 20 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 15 10 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 5 99%ile Peak Trend line 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 34

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Bradley Head (mg/l N) 25 Bradley Head 1 Raw Bradley Head 2 Raw Bradley Head Treated 20 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 15 10 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 5 99%ile Peak Trend line 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 35

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Milborne Wick (mg/l N) 20 Milborne Wick Bh1 18 16 Milborne Wick Bh2 Milborne Wick Treatd Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 14 12 10 8 6 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 4 2 99%ile Peak Trend line 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 36

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Chirton (mg/l N) 16 Chirton B/H 4 Trt Chirton Bh No1 Raw 14 Chirton Bh No2 Raw Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Chirton Mixed Trtd Chirton No2 B/H Trtd Chirton No3 B/H Trtd Chirton Raw B/H 3 Chirton Raw Bh2 Chirton Raw Mxd B/Hs Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 37

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Dunkerton (mg/l N) 18 Dunkerton Raw Sprgs 16 Dunkerton Trtd Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 14 12 10 8 6 4 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 38

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Deans Farm (mg/l N) 16 Deans Farm Bh1 Deans Farm Bh2 14 Deans Farm Bh3 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Deans Farm Raw Deans Farm Trtd_ Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 39

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Bulbridge (mg/l N) 16 Bulbridge Raw Bulbridge Trtd_ 14 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 40

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Wylye (mg/l N) 18 Wylye 16 Wylye Bh1 Raw Wylye Bh2 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 14 12 10 8 6 4 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 41

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Belhuish (mg/l N) 16 Belhuish Bh1(Weld)Rw Belhuish Bh2 14 Belhuish Bh3 Raw Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 42

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Milborne ST Andrew (mg/l N) 25 Milborne Bh1 Raw Milborne Bh2 Raw Milborne Bh3 Raw 20 Milborne St A No1Trt Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 15 10 Milborne St A No2Trt Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 5 99%ile Peak Trend line 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 43

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Shapwick (mg/l N) 20 Shapwick 18 16 Shapwick Bh 3 Shapwick Bh1 Shapwick Bh2 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 14 12 10 8 6 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 4 2 99%ile Peak Trend line 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 44

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Eagle Lodge (mg/l N) 16 Eagle Lodge Eagle Lodge 2A Trtd 14 Eagle Lodge Bh1 Raw Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Eagle Lodge Bh2 Raw Eagle Lodge No1 Trtd Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 45

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Empool (mg/l N) 16 Empool 1 Trtd Empool 2 Trtd 14 Empool B/H 4 (Raw) Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Empool Bh1 Empool Bh2 Empool Bh3 Empool Treated Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 46

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Winterborne Abbas (mg/l N) 20 W'Borne Abbas Bh1 18 16 W'Borne Abbas Bh2Raw W'Borne Abbas Trtd_ Wntrbrne Abbas Raw Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 14 12 10 8 6 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 4 2 99%ile Peak Trend line 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 47

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Sturminster Marshall (mg/l N) 16 St Marsh'L Well1 Raw Stur_Marshallbh2 Raw 14 Stur_Marshallbh3 Raw Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 12 10 8 6 4 Stur_Marshallbh4 Raw Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 48

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Langdon (mg/l N) 35 Langdon Raw Langdon Trtd_ 30 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 25 20 15 10 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 5 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 49

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Hooke (mg/l N) 18 Hooke Raw 16 Hooke Trtd_ Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 14 12 10 8 6 4 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 50

Sources at risk of exceeding nitrate limits by 2020 Loss of 43 Ml/d of output in next 5 years 8% of capacity Key Sources at risk from exceeding nitrate limits Water supply and sewerage services area Sewerage services only Water supply services only 51

How do we deal with this problem Treatment Blending Solve problem at source 52

How long to solve the problem as source Hydrogeologists 53

Pollution Nitrate Concentrations at Hooke (mg/l N) 18 Hooke Raw 16 Hooke Trtd_ Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 14 12 10 8 6 4 Trend for Average of All Data 99.9%ile Peak Trend line 99%ile Peak Trend line 2 95%ile Peak Trend line Average for previous 12 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 54

0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Ashford Reservoir Metaldehyde Levels Metaldehyde (micrograms/litre) 01-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 29-Sep-08 13-Oct-08 27-Oct-08 10-Nov-08 24-Nov-08 08-Dec-08 22-Dec-08 05-Jan-09 19-Jan-09 02-Feb-09 16-Feb-09 02-Mar-09 16-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 Drinking Water Limit (0.1

Daily Sample Point FWAG Sample Point New Sample Point Legridge <80 1 11 Neville Farm 113 3 2 8 9 Wood Hill West <80 Wood Hill E 125 Weston Wood <80 16 15 12 14 13 Wood Hill S 171 Wood Bridge 253 7 5 6 Corscombe Farm <80

Conceptual model Nitrate level at time t = Function of historic application of nitrate / thickness of the unsaturated zone + Leachate concentration * function of groundwater level + Leachate concentration * function of recharge 57

Good calibration Eagle Lodge Calibration - Step 4 Add Bypass Flow Effect 12 10 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 8 6 4 2 Drinking Water Standard Site Measured Nitrate 0 Min Long Term Trend (LTT) based on Legacy Nitrate 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 58

Good Calibration with a Number of Sites Friar Waddon at Step 4 Calibration 12 10 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 8 6 4 2 Drinking Water Standard Site Measured Nitrate 0 Min Long Term Trend (LTT) based on Legacy Nitrate 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 59

Whoops! Dunkerton at Step 4 12 10 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 8 6 4 Greensand Source so different unsat zone porosity and likely delayed flow and possible stratification in saturated zone Drinking Water Standard Note: No bypass flow predicted by recharge model 2 Site Measured Nitrate 0 Min Long Term Trend (LTT) based on Legacy Nitrate 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 60

But Generally Good for Chalk Sources Chirton at Step 4 12 10 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 8 6 4 2 Drinking Water Standard Site Measured Nitrate 0 Min Long Term Trend (LTT) based on Legacy Nitrate 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 61

Modelled Scenarios Scenario 1 nitrate leaching at 2006/7 rates Scenario 3 nitrate leaching reduced to 50% of 2006/7 rates Scenario 2 nitrate leaching reduced to zero 62

Winterbourne Abbas Scenario 1 Forward Prediction of Nitrate at PWS 12 10 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 8 6 4 Forward prediction based on repeating water levels and rainfall from 1992 to 2006 2 0 Drinking Water Standard Site Measured Nitrate Max Long Term Trend (LTT) Based on Legacy Nitrate (Max) and Unsat Zone Delay Mid Long Term Trend (LTT) Based on Legacy Nitrate (Av) and Unsat Zone Delay Min Long Term Trend (LTT) based on Legacy Nitrate (Min) and Unsat Zone Delay Predicted Nitrate using Function of Woodyates Monthly Water Level and LTT - plus lag Predicted Nitrate using Function of Rainfall, Ashton Farm Water Level and LTT - plus lag Predicted Nitrate using Function of Rainfall, Ashton Farm Water Level and LTT - plus lag 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 63

Winterbourne Abbas Scenario 3 Forward Prediction of Nitrate at PWS 12 10 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 8 6 4 Forward prediction based on repeating water levels and rainfall from 1992 to 2006 2 0 Drinking Water Standard Site Measured Nitrate Max Long Term Trend (LTT) Based on Legacy Nitrate (Max) and Unsat Zone Delay Mid Long Term Trend (LTT) Based on Legacy Nitrate (Av) and Unsat Zone Delay Min Long Term Trend (LTT) based on Legacy Nitrate (Min) and Unsat Zone Delay Predicted Nitrate using Function of Woodyates Monthly Water Level and LTT - plus lag Predicted Nitrate using Function of Rainfall, Ashton Farm Water Level and LTT - plus lag Predicted Nitrate using Function of Rainfall, Ashton Farm Water Level and LTT - plus lag 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 64

Winterbourne Abbas Scenario 2 Forward Prediction of Nitrate at PWS 12 10 Nitrate Concentration (mg/l N) 8 6 4 Forward prediction based on repeating water levels and rainfall from 1992 to 2006 2 0 Drinking Water Standard Site Measured Nitrate Max Long Term Trend (LTT) Based on Legacy Nitrate (Max) and Unsat Zone Delay Mid Long Term Trend (LTT) Based on Legacy Nitrate (Av) and Unsat Zone Delay Min Long Term Trend (LTT) based on Legacy Nitrate (Min) and Unsat Zone Delay Predicted Nitrate using Function of Woodyates Monthly Water Level and LTT - plus lag Predicted Nitrate using Function of Rainfall, Ashton Farm Water Level and LTT - plus lag Predicted Nitrate using Function of Rainfall, Ashton Farm Water Level and LTT - plus lag 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 65

But how radical do you need to be? 66

That is great! But how do we achieve a 50% or 100% reduction in leaching? CSFOs? NVZ regulations? Catchment management based on advice and data? Catch-crops WAgrico? Growing grass? Growing trees? 67

Comparison of Average Nitrate Concentration (mgn/l) in Porous Pots Under different Crop types 25 Sutton Poyntz (SSSI Grassland) Lewell Plain (OSR) 20 18 Acres (Grass) N itra te L e v e l (m g N /L ) 15 10 5 0 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 68

Clarendon 69

Luke de Vial, MSc (Hydrogeology) 70

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