Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Sustrans yw r elusen sy n ei gwneud yn haws i bobl gerdded a beicio. Rydym yn cysylltu pobl a llefydd, yn creu cymunedau byw, yn trawsnewid y daith i r ysgol ac yn hwyluso taith hapusach ac iachach i r gwaith. Ymunwch â ni ar ein siwrne. www.sustrans.org.uk Sustrans is the charity making it easier for people to walk and cycle. We connect people and places, create liveable neighbourhoods, transform the school run and deliver a happier, healthier commute. Join us on our journey. www.sustrans.org.uk Head Office Sustrans 2 Cathedral Square College Green Bristol BS1 5DD Sustrans [Month, Year] Elusen gofrestredig yn y DU yw Sustrans Rhif 326550 (Cymru a Lloegr) SCO39263 (Yr Alban) Registered Charity No. 326550 (England and Wales) SC039263 (Scotland) VAT Registration No. 416740656 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Table of contents 1 Summary... 1 2 Introduction... 3 3 The Strategic Investment Tool... 3 4 Local authority investment scenarios... 5 4.1 Newport... 5 4.2 Cardiff... 6 4.3 Monmouthshire... 7 5 Results... 9 5.1 Newport... 9 5.2 Cardiff... 11 5.3 Monmouthshire... 13 5.4 Combined impact... 15 6 Additional analyses... 16 6.1 Economic benefits, health benefits and environmental benefits... 16 6.2 Mode shift and potential impact on congestion... 17 6.3 Wider investment programmes... 18 6.3.1 Cardiff Capital Region investment programme... 18 6.3.2 National investment programme... 19 7 References... 19 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
1 Summary This paper sets out the potential for investment in cycling and walking in South East Wales. It estimates that an investment of 118 million in Cardiff, Newport and Monmouthshire over the next ten years results in a near doubling of cycling and a 20% increase in walking. This delivers benefits worth over 1bn, saves nearly 40 lives every year from reducing levels of physical inactivity, and reduces commuting traffic in Newport by over 25%. This paper uses the Strategic Investment Tool that Sustrans have developed to set out possible scenarios for investment in active travel in Newport, Cardiff and Monmouthshire. The tool uses evidence from the evaluations of a wide range of active travel interventions to estimate the possible impact and cost of an investment programme. The investment scenario for each local authority is made up of a range of intervention types, from capital investments in cycling and walking infrastructure to revenue investments in behaviour change interventions in schools, workplaces and communities. The final investment programmes should be considered to be an optimum level of investment that can be supported by the number of institutions (schools, workplaces, rail stations, etc.) in each local authority. Table 1-1 shows the costs of each programme and the estimated impact of the investment. Table 1-1 Summary of investment programmes for Newport, Cardiff and Monmouthshire Newport Cardiff Monmouthshire Total cost over 10 years ( m) 33 65 20 Cost per person per year 22 17 21 Additional walking trips (estimated % increase) 9 million (25%) 13 million (15%) 7.2 million (30%) Additional cycling trips (estimated % increase) 1.6 million (93%) 3.7 million (84%) 840,000 (73%) The economic impacts of these investments over a 20 year appraisal period have been estimated, in line with the approach recommended by the Welsh Transport Appraisal Guidance (WelTAG). Table 1-2 Economic benefits of investment programmes for Newport, Cardiff and Monmouthshire Newport Cardiff Monmouthshire Economic benefit ( m) 286 521 202 Benefit cost ratio 7.0:1 6.4:1 7.4:1 1 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
In addition, Cardiff Capital Region and whole Wales investment scenarios have been extrapolated from the more detailed modelling approach applied to the three local authorities. The Cardiff Capital Region assessment resulted in a 290m investment plan, delivering a 19% and 82% increase in walking and cycling trips respectively, with benefits of nearly 2.5bn over 20 years. A similar level of increase could be delivered across the whole of Wales with an investment of 600m, delivering 5bn of benefits over 20 years. In addition to the economic benefits, there is a weight of evidence which suggests that investment in active travel can have a mutually beneficial relationship with investment in public transport networks such as the South Wales Metro. This will maximise the impact on congestion reduction of both types of investment. 2 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
2 Introduction This paper sets out three possible scenarios for investment in active travel in Newport, Cardiff and Monmouthshire. It uses the Strategic Investment Tool (SIT) that has been developed by Sustrans as part of their Active Travel Toolbox (ATT). The SIT uses evidence from the evaluations of a wide range of types of active travel interventions to estimate the possible impact and cost of an investment programme consisting of different intervention types. This paper will outline the method used by the SIT and detail the inputs used for each of the three local authorities. The outputs from the SIT are the number of additional cycling and walking trips per year that can be expected by the end of the investment programme, along with the costs of delivering the programme. The SIT also estimates other outputs from the programme, such as the kilometres of route delivered and the number of schools engaged. It is important to note from the outset that the SIT is not a precise tool the actual impacts of the programme are likely to depend on a wide number of variables that the SIT does not consider. The outputs of the tool should therefore be considered to be indicative of what a delivery programme could achieve, based on evidence collected from previous programmes of investment. 3 The Strategic Investment Tool The SIT is built on evidence from a wide range evaluations of active travel interventions. The details of the evaluations used can be seen in Appendix A. The primary input to the tool is a proposed investment programme which can cover a period of between one to ten years. The investment programme is built up from different intervention types which are delivered across the programme period. The different intervention types are shown in Table 3-1. The impacts and costs for each intervention type are developed from the available evidence (typically the median impact of similar schemes that Sustrans has evaluated). 3 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Table 3-1 Intervention types Intervention Details Delivery Unit Delivery period (years) New and improved This intervention delivers an off road route linking clear origins and destinations, or joins up A route. 1 routes previously unconnected routes. Routes to schools A similar intervention to the above, but with a focus on delivering safer routes to schools. A route to school. 1 Overcoming Physical Severance Improving Cycling Facilities at Rail/Bus Stations Schools Behaviour Change - high Intensity Schools Behaviour Change - low intensity (walking only) Community PTP Community Behaviour Change - Intensive Intervention Workplaces Behaviour Change - High Intensity Workplaces Behaviour Change - Low Intensity Access and promotion at Universities/FE college This intervention delivers larger infrastructure projects that enable pedestrians and cyclists to cross a major obstruction such as a river or a main road. The Bike n Ride (2011) programme forms the basis of this intervention category. This programme delivered additional secure bicycle parking, bike lockers and cycling hubs and hire facilities. This intervention is based on Sustrans Schools Officers. Officers deliver a range of high intensity engagement sessions with targeted primary and secondary schools. They can be focused on cycling or wider active travel. It assumes a schools officer will engage with 9 new schools a year. This intervention involves promotion and events related to walking to school, often revolving around challenge type activities where students are encouraged to record the amount of active travel to school they undertake as a motivation and peer support tool. It is less intensive than the engagement delivered by the other Schools Behaviour Change intervention category. This intervention involves trained officers going door-to-door in the targeted area and offering advice to residents on how to best access and use active travel options. Interventions within this category would typically seek to engage the residents of a community to take part in a range of different sessions to encourage them to use active travel more frequently. They types of activity include health walks, led cycle rides and active travel information hubs. This type of intervention revolves around trained officers delivering intensive behaviour change activities within a workplace environment. It assumes an officer will engage intensely with 8 workplaces over 2 years and have light-touch engagement with 10 others. An engagement rate of 20% of the workplaces in the area would be considered a realistic target. Interventions in this category are typically challenge type interventions where employees are encouraged to record the amount of active travel they undertake as a motivation and peer support tool. Please note that the cost of this type of intervention is very dependent on the individual intervention as it largely revolves around the amount of promotion being delivered. This type of intervention revolve around trained officers delivering active travel promotions and behaviour change activities within a HE/FE environment, along with capital investments to improve active travel facilities. A bridge or tunnel 1.5 A train or bus station. A school. 1 A school. 1 Zone of 10,000 households. Community of 5,000 individuals. A workplace. 2 Employment zone of 30,000 workers. A university/college 3 1 1 4 1 4 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
4 Local authority investment scenarios This section details how the investment scenario for each city was developed, and lists the interventions that make up the final scenario. For all three local authorities, the investment programme is set to run over ten years. It is important to note that the scenarios are based on the number of institutions that can support a given intervention (e.g. the number of schools or train stations in a local authority). It is also assumed that work can begin immediately and no upper limit is placed on the budget available each year. In this sense, the investment programmes can been seen as the maximally deliverable programme for the investment period. 4.1 Newport Table 4-1 shows the different parameters that are used in the development of the investment programme. Table 4-1 Newport parameter values assets in the local authority area 1 Asset Number Population 148,729 Households 66,891 Employed population 71,300 Medium and large employers (local units) 220 Schools 56 HE and FE institutions 1 Train and bus stations 3 Table 4-2 details a potential investment programme for Newport that is deliverable according to the parameters of the local authority. Table 4-2 Newport investment programme Intervention Rationale Number New and improved routes The Newport Active Travel Network Study (commissioned from Sustrans by Newport City Council and Newport Unlimited in 2014) identified 25 potential cycling and walking infrastructure schemes. Three of the proposed schemes were identified as ones that overcome some form of physical severance, and the remaining 22 were best represented as new and improved routes, some of which improved access to schools. 39 Routes to schools However, because this investment programme is Overcoming Physical Severance designed to represent the maximally deliverable programme of investment, in addition to the schemes identified above, the total number of schemes has been calculated to deliver sufficient kilometres of route to match the number of kilometres of A and B road in the authority area (minus the number of existing kilometres of off-road cycle path). This totals c.84 kilometres of new route (167 kilometres of A and B road, minus 83 kilometres of offroad cycle route). 8 1 The most recently available values are used at the time of writing (June 2018). 5 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Intervention Rationale Number This has been used as the yardstick for this type of intervention on the assumption that a) A and B roads provide a reasonable basis for the main transport network in the local authority and b) off-road cycle roads are more likely to be needed on the A and B road network than on quieter roads. Improving Cycling Facilities at Rail Stations and Bus Terminals Schools Behaviour Change - high Intensity Schools Behaviour Change - low intensity (walking only) Community PTP Community Behaviour Change - Intensive Intervention Workplaces Behaviour Change - High Intensity Workplaces Behaviour Change - Low Intensity Access and promotion at Universities Access and promotion at Further Education Colleges The programme assumes that facilities at all public transport hubs will be upgraded over the investment period. The programme assumes an intervention will be delivered at all schools across the intervention period. One challenge intervention will be delivered at all of the schools in the local authority in every other year of the investment period. The intervention programme assumes that PTP will be delivered across the whole city once over the duration of the programme. This intervention type runs over 4 years, engaging with sub-sections of the population of around 5,000 individuals. The investment programme will seek to engage half of the population (c. 75,000 people) over the duration of the programme. There are 220 medium and large workplaces in Newport. Sustrans experience of delivering these interventions suggests that engagement with 20% of the total is a viable target over the ten years. One workplace challenge type intervention will be delivered each year for the investment period. There is a single university in Newport, a campus of the University of South Wales. Gwent College also has a campus in the city. The investment programme assumes that this intervention will be run once every five years at both institutions. 3 56 280 7 15 44 10 4 4.2 Cardiff Table 4-3 shows the different parameter values that are used in the development of the investment programme. Table 4-3 Cardiff parameter values assets in the local authority area 2 Asset Number Population 366,959 Households 151,200 Employed population 173,200 Medium and large employers (local units) 650 Schools 127 HE and FE institutions 6 Train and bus stations 21 Table 4-4 details a potential investment programme for Cardiff that is deliverable according to the parameters of the local authority. 2 The most recently available values are used at the time of writing (June 2018). 6 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Table 4-4 Cardiff investment programme Intervention Rationale Number New and improved routes Routes to schools The Cardiff Local Transport Plan identifies 27.3million of investment in the Cardiff Strategic Cycle Network (Enfys) Plan and the Walkable Neighbourhoods programme between 2015 and 2030. This programme assumes that the delivery of this investment can be compressed into the ten years of the programme and divides it between the different intervention types according to the approximate proportion seen in the Newport programme. 63 Overcoming Physical Severance This programme delivers approximately 130 kilometres of new route, substantially more than the c.84 kilometre difference between the length of A and B roads in Cardiff and the length of off-road cycle path. 12 The programme assumes that facilities at all public Improving Cycling Facilities at transport hubs will be upgraded over the investment Rail Stations and Bus Terminals period. 21 Schools Behaviour Change - high Intensity Schools Behaviour Change - low intensity (walking only) Community PTP Community Behaviour Change - Intensive Intervention Workplaces Behaviour Change - High Intensity Workplaces Behaviour Change - Low Intensity Access and promotion at Universities Access and promotion at Further Education Colleges The programme assumes an intervention will be delivered at 50% of schools across the intervention period. One challenge intervention will be delivered at all of the schools in the local authority in every other year of the investment period. The intervention programme assumes that PTP will be delivered across the whole city once over the duration of the programme. This intervention type runs over 4 years, engaging with sub-sections of the population of around 5,000 individuals. The investment programme will seek to engage half of the population (c. 185,000 people) over the duration of the programme. There are 650 medium and large workplaces in Cardiff. Based on Sustrans experience of delivering these interventions, the investment programme assumes that engagement with 20% of the total is a viable target over the ten years. One workplace challenge type intervention will be delivered each year for the investment period. There are three university campuses and three FE colleges in the city. The investment programme assumes that this intervention will be run once every five years at all institutions. 65 635 15 37 130 10 12 4.3 Monmouthshire Monmouthshire s population is spread between a handful of towns and a number of smaller villages and settlements. The rural nature of the local authority means that the development of a coherent investment programme is more complex than it is for cities such as Cardiff and Newport. Table 4-5 shows the different parameter values for the local authority that are used in the development of the investment programme. 7 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Table 4-5 Monmouthshire parameter values assets in the local authority area 3 Asset Number Population 92,931 Households 41,479 Employed population 44,600 Medium and large employers (local units) 90 Schools 35 HE and FE institutions 1 Train and bus stations 7 Table 4-6 details a potential investment programme for Monmouthshire that is deliverable according to the parameters of the local authority. Table 4-6 Monmouthshire investment programme Intervention Rationale Number New and improved routes Routes to schools The Monmouthshire Local Travel Plan sets out a number of proposed active travel related schemes, including network plans in Abergavenny, Magor and Undy, Chepstow, Caldicot, Usk and Gilvern. Estimated costs are only included for Abergavenny and Magor and Undy, at 750k and 480k respectively. This programme assumes these networks will require an average investment of 500k. A single severence intervention is assumed in each of the six towns. This could include the opening of the disused railway tunnel in Usk. 4 19 Overcoming Physical Severance Monmouthshire has the largest differential between the length of A and B roads and the length of off-road cycle routes in the local authority area (360km and 64km respectively). However, if the investment programme on considers roads and cycle routes that are categorised as being located in urban cities and towns 5, the difference is approximately 55km. The severance interventions result in 40km of new route, with the remainder provided by the other types of route. 6 Improving Cycling Facilities at Rail Stations and Bus Terminals Schools Behaviour Change - high Intensity Schools Behaviour Change - low intensity (walking only) Community PTP Community Behaviour Change - Intensive Intervention The programme assumes that facilities at all public transport hubs will be upgraded over the investment period. The programme assumes an intervention will be delivered at all schools across the intervention period. One challenge intervention will be delivered at all of the schools in the local authority in every other year of the investment period. The intervention programme assumes that PTP will be delivered across the whole local authority area once over the duration of the programme. This intervention type runs over 4 years, engaging with sub-sections of the population of around 5,000 individuals. The investment programme will seek to engage half of the 7 35 175 4 5 3 The most recently available values are used at the time of writing (June 2018). 4 Welsh Government, 2015 Scoping study for converting disused railway tunnels into walking and cycling routes as part of the National Cycle Network Wales https://gov.wales/docs/det/report/151215-scoping-study-tunnel-conversion.pdf accessed 20/06/2018 5 As categorised by the Office of National Statistics Rural Urban Classification (2011) of Lower Layer Super Output Areas in England and Wales (https://ons.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=9855221596994bde8363a685cb3dd58a) 8 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Intervention Rationale Number population (c. 23,000 people) over the duration of the programme. Workplaces Behaviour Change - High Intensity Workplaces Behaviour Change - Low Intensity Access and promotion at Universities Access and promotion at Further Education Colleges There are 90 medium and large workplaces in the local authority. Based on Sustrans experience of delivering these interventions, the investment programme assumes that engagement with 20% of the total is a viable target over the ten years. One workplace challenge type intervention will be delivered each year for the investment period. There is one HE/FE institution in the local authority. The investment programme assumes two interventions across the investment period. 18 10 2 5 Results This section of the paper includes the outputs from the modelling using the strategic investment tool. To give context to the figures, an approximation of current levels of cycling and walking is provided. The number of trips by foot or by bike in each local authority is calculated by simply multiplying the average number of trips per person per year for each mode from the National Travel Survey by the adult population of each local authority. The National Travel Survey for 2016 reports that, on average, individuals make a total of 305 walking trips and 15 cycle trips each year. 5.1 Newport Using the calculation detailed above, currently approximately 36 million walking trips and 1.75 million cycling trips take place in Newport each year. Following the delivery of the proposed investment programme, the SIT estimates that an additional 9 million pedestrian trips and 1.6 million cycling trips would take place each year. That represents a 25% increase in walking and a near doubling of the number of cycling trips (93% increase). Table 5-1 shows the estimated costs of delivering this programme of interventions. It also shows that the programme of investment is a mixture of capital and revenue, with the proportions in line with the evidence that the greatest overall benefit is realised with between 20% and 40% of revenue expenditure in an investment programme. 6 Table 5-1 Estimated costs of Newport investment programme delivery Total ( million) 33 Capital 62% Revenue 38% Average cost per head per year 22 6 Department for Transport, 2015 Finding the optimum: revenue and capital investment balance for sustainable travel https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sustainable-travel-projects-revenue-and-capital-investment 9 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
The charts below (Chart 1, Chart 2, Chart 3, Chart 4) show how the impacts of the programme will be spread over its 10 year lifespan, along with the distribution of costs. Capital investments are frontloaded to maximise their impact, while revenue investment is constant across the programme to make sure that the effects are continuously reinforced. Chart 1 Additional cycle trips per year Chart 2 Additional pedestrian trips per year 10 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Chart 3 Costs per year Chart 4 Capital/revenue spending per year 5.2 Cardiff We estimate that approximately 91 million walking trips and 4.4 million cycle trips take place in Cardiff each year. 7 Following the delivery of the proposed investment programme, the SIT estimates that an additional 13.4 million pedestrian trips and 3.7 million cycling trips would take place each year. That represents a 15% increase in walking and nearly double of the number of cycling trips (84% increase). 0 shows the estimated costs of delivering this programme of interventions. 7 Note that Bike Life Cardiff estimated that approximately 12m bicycle trips took place in Cardiff in 2016. For the purpose of methodological consistency, this figure is not used in this report, although it is acknowledged to be more robust. 11 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Table 5-2 Estimated costs of Cardiff investment programme delivery Total ( million) 65 Capital 57% Revenue 43% Average cost per head per year 17 The charts below (Chart 5, Chart 6, Chart 7 and Chart 8) show how the impacts of the programme will be spread over its 10 year lifespan, along with the distribution of costs. Capital investments are frontloaded to maximise their impact, while revenue investment is constant across the programme to make sure that the effects are continuously reinforced. Chart 5 Additional cycle trips per year Chart 6 Additional pedestrian trips per year 12 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Chart 7 Costs per year Chart 8 Capital/revenue spending per year 5.3 Monmouthshire We estimate that approximately 24 million walking trips are made in the local authority, compared to 1.1 million bicycle trips. Following the delivery of the proposed investment programme, the SIT estimates that an additional 7.2 million pedestrian trips and 840,000 cycling trips would take place each year. That represents a 30% increase in walking and a 73% increase in the number of cycling trips. 0 shows the estimated costs of delivering this programme of interventions. 13 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Table 5-3 Estimated costs of Monmouthshire investment programme delivery Total ( million) 20 Capital 67% Revenue 33% Average cost per head per year 21 The charts below (Chart 9, Chart 10, Chart 11and Chart 12) show how the impacts of the programme will be spread over its 10 year lifespan, along with the distribution of costs. Capital investments are frontloaded to maximise their impact, while revenue investment is constant across the programme to make sure that the effects are continuously reinforced. Chart 9 Additional cycle trips per year Chart 10 Additional pedestrian trips per year 14 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Chart 11 Costs per year Chart 12 Capital/revenue spending per year 5.4 Combined impact If the three local authorities are considered together, approximately 7 million bicycle trips and 151 million walking trips are made every year. With the investment of 118 million over the next ten years, the SIT estimates that this could rise to over 13 million cycling trips and 181 million walking trips every year, an increase of 84% and 20% respectively. 15 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
6 Additional analyses 6.1 Economic benefits, health benefits and environmental benefits The Welsh Transport Appraisal Guidance (WelTAG) (Welsh Government, 2017) suggests that the economic impacts of changes in the number of cycling and walking can be calculated using the guidance provided by the Department for Transport s WebTAG framework. Using the DfT s Active Mode Appraisal Toolkit (AMAT) (Department for Transport, 2018), the economic benefits associated with each investment programme were calculated (Table 6-1). The costs of route maintenance are included in the 20 year appraisal period, at a rate of 10% of the total capital investment at any given point. Table 6-1 Estimated economic benefits of investment programme (20 year appraisal period) Economic Benefit cost Local authority benefits ( m) ratio Newport 286 7.0:1 Cardiff 521 6.4:1 Monmouthshire 202 7.4:1 Combined 1,009 6.8:1 The majority of the benefits for each local authority (c.80%) are realised from the improvements to health that result from increased levels of active travel. In addition to the economic benefits, the AMAT estimates the number of deaths and the number of Years of Life Lost (YLLs) avoided each year. These are shown in Table 6-2. Table 6-2 Estimated annual health impacts at the conclusion of the investment programme Number of YLLs avoided Local authority deaths avoided Newport 11 160 Cardiff 18 275 Monmouthshire 8 114 Combined 36 549 The AMAT also estimates the number of car kilometres taken off the road each year by the end of the investment programme. We can then use nationally available data to estimate some of the environmental benefits of removing these car kilometres. 16 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
Table 6-3 Annual environmental benefits at the conclusion of the investment programme Local authority Kilograms of PM10 Kilograms of PM2.5 Tonnes of greenhouse cases saved each year saved each year saved each year (CO2e) Newport 71 49 452 Cardiff 126 87 833 Monmouthshire 49 34 302 Combined 245 171 1,587 6.2 Mode shift and potential impact on congestion The intervention programmes detailed in the previous section deliver millions of additional cycling and walking trips in each of the local authorities. A proportion of these trips will be replacing trips that were previous made by other modes, particularly car trips, which in turn will have an impact on road congestion. It is difficult to reliably model the extent of mode shift that will occur, especially given the likely interplay between the effects of the different intervention types. This section details a potential scenario for the impact of the Newport investment programme on mode shift in the city and the possible effect on congestion. The proposed Newport investment programme is estimated to deliver approximately 10.6 million additional cycling and walking trips every year by the end of the 10 year investment period. One of the biggest sources of latent demand for cycling and walking is commuting trips so it is reasonable to assume that a substantial proportion of these additional trips will also be for commuting purposes. At the time of the 2011 census, 41% of people living in the local authority commuted to work in a car or van (as a driver). Applying this proportion to the adult population in 2025 (aged 16-65) equates to approximately 37,500 trips every working day, or approximately 8.3 million car trips every year 8. If we assume that just 20% of the additional cycling and walking trips are trips mode shifted from car commuter trips, this would result in a reduction of commuter traffic of over 25%. In addition to this impact, this scenario does not account for is the relationship between active travel and public transport (PT). All trips on PT consist of (at least) three stages. The access stage (getting to the PT stop or station), the stage using the PT, and the egress stage (getting from the exit PT stop/station to the final destination). In many cases, the access and egress stages can be made by active modes. For instance, in the Netherlands, nearly two thirds of both access and egress stages to and from railway stations are made by bicycle or on foot (Godefrooij, 2012). This relationship between the different modes is expressed in a number of different ways. Research shows that individuals who travel by PT can benefit from between 8-33 minutes of additional physical activity (walking) per day (Rissel et al, 2012) this highlights the impact that combinations of PT and active travel can have on individuals achieving their recommended daily levels of physical activity. Other research has shown that easy access to PT has the potential to promote active travel (Djurhuss et al, 2014; Dalton et al, 2013), while another paper links flexible rental bikes (the OV-Fiets system in the Netherlands) with a reduction in car use and an increase in train trips (Martens, 2006). This suggests that schemes like Cardiff s NextBike could have an important role to play in helping people make the access and egress stages by active modes. There is also evidence that the relationship between PT and active travel are intertwined in other ways. For instance, as the number of cyclists on the road increase, there can be benefits to the speed and consistency of bus services if bicycle infrastructure is used to mitigate potential traffic delays 8 Assuming 220 working days per annum 17 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
(Rajé, F; Saffrey, A, 2015). This could indicate a virtuous circle where the benefits of PT (speed and consistency of trips) are maximised by promoting active travel to reduce congestion. The weight of research suggests that mode shift away from motorised traffic onto PT networks (and thereby reducing congestion) is strongly connected to an individual s ability to access the PT network by active modes. An investment in active travel, particularly focused on links with the PT network (as detailed in the investment plans) could result in a greater impact of any PT investment such as the South Wales Metro. This in turn will maximise the impact of both types of investment and contribute towards a move away from car dependence. A reduction in traffic levels in Newport, and from both increased active travel and from increased use of PT options with at least one stage being undertaken by active modes, will very likely result in a fall in levels of traffic using the M4, particularly, in the context of the scenarios depicted above, during key commuter periods. We have not sought to quantify the effect on flows on the M4 as part of this exercise, but this could be done using the models that were applied to generate the scenarios for the M4 traffic flows. 6.3 Wider investment programmes This paper has focused on investment programmes for just three of the 22 local authorities in Wales, including two of the country s largest urban areas. Although this paper does not develop an investment programme for any of the remaining 19 local authorities, or the country as a whole, it is possible to extrapolate from the results detailed above to obtain a broad understanding of what wider investment programmes might look like. 6.3.1 Cardiff Capital Region investment programme The Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) covers the ten local authorities in South East Wales (Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Merthyr Tydfil, Caerphilly, Monmouthshire, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Newport and Cardiff). The population of the CCR is just over 1.5 million. The intervention programmes developed in this paper have a weighted average cost per head per year of 18.73. If this cost is scaled up to the population of the CCR, it results in a maximally deliverable investment programme of 290 million over the next ten years. The impacts of this investment can also be extrapolated from the three local authorities. Using the same contextual calculation as detailed above, approximately 380 million walking trips are currently made in the CCR each year, compared to 18 million cycling trips. In the final year of the investment programmes, the SIT estimates that the population of the three local authorities will be each making (on average) an extra 46 walking trips and nine extra cycling trips. This means that, if it is assumed that these figures hold across the CCR, an additional 70 million walking trips and an additional 15 million cycling trips would be made in the final year of the investment programme. This represents a 19% increase in walking trips and an 82% increase in cycling trips. Using the DfT s AMAT to estimate the economic benefits of this scale of investment 9 reveals that the benefit cost ratio of the programme would be approximately 7.4:1, with the economic benefits being worth nearly 2.5 billion over a 20 year appraisal period. The investment would also result in the avoidance of nearly 90 deaths each year, a total of 1,331 YLLs avoided. 9 Again including maintenance costs of approximately 10% of capital investment. 18 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018
6.3.2 National investment programme The population of Wales is just over 3.1 million, of which 19% live in one of the three local authorities considered in this paper. Using the same contextual calculation as detailed above, approximately 780 million walking trips are currently made in Wales each year, compared to 38 million cycling trips. We extrapolate a maximally deliverable investment programme of just under 600 million over the next ten years, resulting in an additional 146 million walking trips and an additional 30 million cycling trips would be made in the final year of the investment programme. This represents a 19% increase in walking trips and an 81% increase in cycling trips. The DfT s AMAT calculates that the benefit cost ratio of the programme would be approximately 7.4:1 10, with the economic benefits being worth just over 5 billion over a 20 year appraisal period. The investment would also result in the avoidance of 179 deaths each year, a total of 2,716 YLLs avoided. 7 References Dalton, A.M.; Jones, A.P.; Panter, J.R.; Ogilvie, D. (2013) Neighbourhood, route and workplacerelated environmental characteristics predict adults mode of travel to work. PLoS One 2013, 8,doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0067575 Department for Transport (2018) Active Mode Appraisal Toolkit [Online] https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/.../active-mode-appraisal-toolkit.xlsx Djurhuus, S.; Hansen, S.; Aadahl, M.; Glümer, C. (2014) The Association between Access to Public Transportation and Self-Reported Active Commuting Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 12632-12651; doi:10.3390/ijerph111212632 Godefrooij, T (2012), Integration of Cycling & Public Transport in The Netherlands [Online] https://www.trm.dk/~/media/files/publication/2012/...1...2012/3-tom-godefrooij.pdf Martens, K (2007) Promoting bike-and-ride: The Dutch experience Transportation Research Part A 41 (2007) 326 338 Raje, F. Saffrey, A. (2015), The value of cycling [Online] https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/509587/valueofcycling.pdf Rissel C, Curac N, Greenaway M, Bauman A. (2012) Physical activity associated with public transport use--a review and modelling of potential benefits. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2012 Jul;9(7):2454-78. doi: 10.3390/ijerph9072454. Epub 2012 Jul 12. Welsh Government (2018) Welsh transport appraisal guidance [Online] https://beta.gov.wales/welsh-transport-appraisal-guidance-weltag 10 Again including maintenance costs of approximately 10% of capital investment. 19 Investing in active travel in South East Wales September 2018