Globeform Previews BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY November 3, 2018 FREE FEATURE OCTOBER 26 From Globeform's Breeders' Cup Special GLOBEFORM RATINGS & EARLY PREVIEW BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT BY GEIR STABELL
R4 GLOBEFORM RATINGS 12:38pm BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT (G1), 5.5 fur turf, Churchill Downs Horses ranked in pounds (0.45kg). 1 length = 3 pounds over this distance Rank Horse Globeform GF past 3 runs Trainer / Jockey 0 DISCO PARTNER 124 107 113 124 Clement / 3 WORLD OF TROUBLE 3 * 119p 104 110+ 119p Jason Servis / 5 CONQUEST TSUNAMI 119 115 0 117 P Miller / 6 STORMY LIBERAL 118p 111+ 118 118p P Miller / 8 RICHARD'S BOY 116 102 115 107 P Miller / 9 BUCCHERO 115 107 103 113 Glyshaw / 9 WILL CALL 115 115 100 113 Cox / 9 RAINBOW HEIR 115 115 114 112 Jason Servis / 10 VISION PERFECT 114 105 112 114 Jason Servis / 10 HAVANA GREY 114 105 114 105 Burke / 10 CHANTELINE mare 111 111 111 110 Asmussen / 10 RUBY NOTION mare 111 104 111 110 D Miller / 13 LOST TREASURE * 110 110 102 110 A P O'Brien / 17 HEMBREE 107 102 104 107 Maker / RESERVES IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE 14 PAY ANY PRICE 110 110 107+ 109+ Baxter / 13 EXTRAVAGANT KID 111 106 108 111 Walsh / 12 BLIND AMBITION 112 112 110 107 Pletcher / 14 EL ASTRONAUTE 110 110 106 106 Quinn / 11 INSTA ERMA mare 110 100 110 104+ Baltas / Fillies / mares: 3lbs sex allowance add 3lbs to ratings for direct comparison 3-year-olds carry 2lbs less than older horses in this race * Globeform Weight-for-age 3-year-olds vs. older horses: USA 0lbs / Europe 0lbs 2017: STORMY LIBERAL - GF 117p Peter Miller / Joel Rosario
Globeform's Breeders' Cup Special Saturday Nov 3, 2018 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint 2017: Globeform's value bet Stormy Liberal wins at 30-1, having been recommended at 40-1 a few days before the race. Benoit Photo GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT Having cashed in with Stormy Liberal at 40-1 in this race last year, and also collected with the fast miler Obviously at 14-1 two years ago, it is tempting to go in search for a nice longshot once more when we get to the BC Turf Sprint. It is, however, hard to see past three to four leading contenders this time, and another 40-1 winner appears unlikely. The most important thing to mention, is that this division has become so much stronger over the past few seasons. While runners performing to around GF 112-114 habitually won the most valuable turf sprints in North America for years, you need a horse capable of GF 116-120 to be competitive at the top level these days. Make no mistake, sprinters like Stormy Liberal, Conquest Tsunami and Disco Partner are high class thoroughbreds. DISCO PARTNER takes by far the best form into the contest. He produced an almost unbelievable Globeform 124 when winning the Belmont Turf Sprint on October 6, and if he runs like that at Churchill Downs he will win the big race. He was third last year, beaten half a length behind Stormy Liberal and Richard's Boy at Del Mar. Disco Partner is much more at home at Belmont Park, and the question is how he will like Churchill Downs. It will be more to his liking than Del Mar was - the track itself will probably not be a problem, and the fact that the race is over 5.5 furlongs this year should not be too much of a worry either. That was the trip also at Del Mar, and this race will almost certainly get a strong pace which is ideal for Disco Partner. Soft ground, on the other hand, would not suit him. Trainer Christophe Clement recently stated that unless it is soft he will run. A worry for those of us who backed him ante-post at big odds. Continues page 3 >>>
ABOUT GLOBEFORM RATING CODES Good to know! What is the difference between rank figures with p and +? Notice these differences in the rank columns for some runners. When p is being used it means that the horse produced a new career best and was given a plus, indicating that improvement could be expected. When + is being used it means that better could be expected, but that the rating the horse ran to on the day was not a new career best (it was either equal to his previous best or below his previous best).
Turf Sprint >>> STORMY LIBERAL is coming off three narrow, yet quite cosy, wins in California and he may be improving still. On paper, it looks like he is travelling to the Breeders' Cup on the back of three hard races a nose win against Tribalist in allowance company, a nose win against RICHARD'S BOY in the Green Flash and a head verdict over CONQUEST TSUNAMI in the Eddie D but Stormy Liberal was not fully extended in any of these races. They were all quite cheeky wins. He did just what was required. He, and Conquest Tsunami, ran big also when hitting the board behind course specialist Jungle Cat in the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan in March, but they were both beaten by Disco Partner when venturing east for the Jaipur Stakes at Belmont Park in June. Based on form, they are in with serious chances. How they will like Churchill Downs is hard to predict. Conquest Tsunami, capable of flashing serious early speed, used to race at Woodbine but that was before he joined Miller from Mark Casse and was transformed into a sprinter, and probably not all that relevant. The ground could become a factor. Conquest Tsunami and Stormy Liberal are both really well suited by firm going and Miller is probably be a keen follower of the weather forecasts these days. One who would not mind rain, is the talented, fast improving three-year-old WORLD OF TROUBLE, and this is an interesting contender. Having won the 7-furlong Pasco Stakes by almost 14 lengths in January, the son of Kantharos went for the Tampa Bay Derby over 8.5 furlongs in March, when he was a non-staying (but very game) third behind the smart pair Quip and Flameaway. His next task was the Woody Stephens over 7 furlongs at Belmont Park in June (fourth to Still Having Fun). World of Trouble was then given a two-month break in the summer and his two races since have come on turf. He has looked a classy sprinter on both occasions; making all in the 5-furlong Quick Call over a yielding course at Saratoga, and soon in command when taking the 6-furlong Allied Forces over a course labelled good at Belmont Park. World Of Trouble is right up with the best on ratings already and, needless to say, he is the one who could find significant improvement. English bookmakers have World of Trouble as big as 10-1 in the future betting and that's a price well worth taking. European turf sprinters are used to racing over straight tracks, almost exclusively over 5 and 6 furlongs, often on quite stiff tracks with an uphill finish, and even their sprint races are often run at a moderate pace through the first furlong. Going flat out over 5.5 furlongs around the turn at Churchill Downs is an altogether different ballgame and it is hard to fancy either of HAVANA GREY, trained by Karl Burke, and LOST TREASURE, a three-year-old from Aidan O'Brien's powerful team. They both have a fair bit to find on form, and would need a new career best to hit the board. WEIGHTS IN BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT RACES Note that the three-year-olds get a 2lbs weight pull against older horses in sprint races at the Breeders' Cup. Globeform research over the years have shown that, when we get to late October and onwards, there should be no wfa allowance for North American 3yo sprinters, and just a 1lb allowance for European 3yo sprinters.