Climate-Ocean Variability, Fisheries and Coastal Response in Indonesian waters Jonson Lumban-Gaol 1, Stefano Vignudelli 2 and Takahiro Osawa 3 1 Department of Marine Science and Technology Bogor Agriculture University, Indonesia 2 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Pisa Italy 3 Center for Remote Sensing and Ocean Sciences, Bali Indonesia
1. Monsoon SST 2. ITF 3. Indian Ocean Dipole Introduction The Indonesian archipelago, one of the most dynamic marine & coastal regions. Characterized by : A strong seasonal variations in the upper oceanic circulation influenced by monsoonal winds. An interaction of waters from the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean ITF The Indonesian seas also influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO have (+) & (-) impacts Chl-a 4. ENSO
One of the important ocean processes in Indonesian waters is the upwelling season. Upwelling events occur off West Sumatra, in the Makassar Strait, South Java/Bali, Banda and Arafuru Seas generated by Southeast Monsoon, modulated by ENSO and IOD. (during El Nino & IOD (+) upwelling more intense) Chl-a SST Makassar South Java Banda & Arafura Upwelling
Indonesian Fish Production No. 2 in the World (EuroStat) About 54% of Indonesia's animal protein supply comes from fish. And Indonesia supplies about 10% of global marine commodities. The productive fisheries in Indonesia seas are sustained through enhanced biological production as a result of upwelling (x1000 ton) No.2 No.2
Climate-ocean variability and the Indonesian Fishery The productive Sardine in this area are sustained through enhanced biological production as a result of coastal upwelling The Bali Strait an important area for oily sardine fisheries: * 80 % fish production from Bali Strait is oily Sardine. * The average of production is 25,000 ton/year, used as a raw material for fisheries industries such as fish canning (>10 units) Purseiner in Bali Strait Bali Strait Bali Northeast Monsoon Southeast Monsoon Oily Sardinella (S. lemuru) Chl-a Upwelling Season
Catch (ton) Chl-a (mg/m3) Annual variability of Chl-a concentration and Sardine production 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Monthly of Chl-a and Oily Sardine Production Sardine Chl-a Time lag J F M A M J J A S O N D 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 (Lumban-Gaol et al., 2012)
Lemuru production shows higher than average during El Nino & IOD (+) (Lumban-Gaol et al., submitted) > 30 years Why???
Distribution of Chl-a concentration during El Nino and IOD (+)
The Chl-a is higher during El Nino and IOD (+) phase The abundance of phytoplankton sustained the stock of sardines in the Bali Strait
The plankton may have been a limiting factor for Sardine production at spawning area. (Durrant et al., 2007)
Social-Economy impacts of Climate-Ocean Variability 2011: Low production the price increase Local Newspapers: Lowest Season (the price increased > 200%). Highest Season (lowest price) > 10 units Fish Canning Industries (1997/98) (2007/06) IOD (+) (2015) El Nino High production but the price goes down
News This year (2017) the production is decreasing the price increasing > 300%
Time series of Chl-a concentration in Bali Strait (Giovanni) Low chl-a concentration in 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011 followed by low Oily Sardine production. Base on the chl-a concentration can be made predictions to reduce the economic risk
Eastern Indian Ocean off South Java Sea an important area for Tuna fishery J a v a Bali Fishing Vessels Chl-a concentration distribution SSHA and geostrophic flow
European Journal of Effect of El Nino and IOD on tuna catch in EIO During El Nino & IOD (+) phase upwelling more intense. (thermocline layer is shallower than during seasonal upwelling/el Nino/IOD + phase)
Bigeye tuna fishing layer (12-15 o C) (Hanamoto, 1985) Thermocline was shallower in eddy good fishing ground for bigeye tuna (CLS)
During El Nino and IOD (+) Eddies (high fertility) Chlorophyll-a Concentration SSHA Chl-a Concentration
Chl-a distribution and Yellowfin tuna Catch in Eastern Indian Ocean (Marsac, 2007 CLIOTOP Symposiumin Mexico)
3000 km During IOD (+) phase the fishing vessels move from the West to the East Indian Ocean (Marsac, 2007).
Climate-Ocean Variability and Coastal Response in Indonesian waters SLR trends globally 3.3 +- 0.4 mm/year
Supporting by: Globally SLR trend : 3.4 mm/year Sea level in Indonesian Seas has increased by 3-8 mm/year
Sea level in Indonesian Seas has increased by 3 8 mm per year. It may contribute to a loss of arable land through inundation. In coastal areas, the sea level rise will increases the effect of the seasonal high tides, causing the lowest lying land to be immersed in water. Economic activities in North Sumatera Aquaculture activities in Java coast
Regional sea level trend in the Eastern Coast of North Sumatra (1993-2016), estimated from satellite altimetry has increased by 5.0 mm/year The coastal areas potentially affected by a 1, 2, 3 m sea-level rise scenario The potential lost of coastal area due to 1 m and 2 m inundation in the ECNS could range from 11.9 km 2 to 63.8 km 2 respectively.
Inundation in the ECNS and flooding at (b) railway (c) settlement (d) tourist place, and (e) fishing port, during 18-21 October 2016. Adaptation strategy Reforesting the bare lands along the coast by planting mangroves is the effective activity to reduce negative impact of sea level rise.
Increasing Capacity of Young Scientists for Climate Change Impact & Vulnerability Assessment on Indonesia Archipelagos: Training in In-Situ/Satellite Sea Level Rise Supported by Asia Pacific Networking Global Research (APN) 2009-2010. Dept. of Marine Science, Bogor Agricultural University Colorado University, LAPAN, BIG and BMKG
Summary Variations and changes in oceanographic conditions due to climate significantly affect the potential of the fishery and coastal area in Indonesia. The time series accurate data of met-ocean parameters such as temperature, phytoplankton (chl-a) abundance, sea level, wind and current etc. are of great value to monitor the oceanographic conditions can be used as a indicators for a sound management of the risks associated with climate-ocean variability and as input to decisions makers for adaptations responses. Climate Services Continuing Capacity Building on climate-ocean data collecting, processing and analysis is very important especially for young scientist in developing country.
Acknowledge (1) WMO-TECO for financial support to attend the conference (2) NASA-GIOVANNI, NASA CoastWatch, NASA Ocean Color Data, AVISO, Colorado University for providing the oceanographic data. (3) Banyuwangi Local Fisheries Institute for fisheries statistic production data Thank you very much