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ICES Advisory Approach Pelagic AC 12 April 2018 Eskild Kirkegaard ICES ACOM Chair

Rules for advice on fishing opportunities Agreed management strategies Available information and knowledge Basis of ICES Advice

Context of ICES Advice International Agreements UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, UN Straddling Fish Stocks Agreement FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries Johannesburg Declaration of the World Summit on Sustainable Development Policy of the Clients of the advice (Commissions, governments) Context

Common Fisheries Policy Objectives The CFP shall ensure that fishing and aquaculture activities are environmentally sustainable in the long-term and are managed in a way that is consistent with the objectives of achieving economic, social and employment benefits, and of contributing to the availability of food supplies. The CFP shall apply the precautionary approach to fisheries management, and shall aim to ensure that exploitation of living marine biological resources restores and maintains populations of harvested species above levels which can produce the maximum sustainable yield. The CFP shall implement the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management so as to ensure that negative impacts of fishing activities on the marine ecosystem are minimised, and shall endeavor to ensure that aquaculture and fisheries activities avoid the degradation of the marine environment. CFP Objectives

Policy Objectives Precautionary approach (PA) Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) Ecosystem-based approach Objectives

EU Multi Annual Plans (MPAs) Advice on: status of stock and exploitation for all stocks advice and advice on fishing opportunities for stocks for which TACs are set. EU Multi Annual Plans (MPAs)

Type of advice depends on whether a stock is considered a target stock in the MAP or not, and whether F ranges are defined for the stock. a) Target stocks with F ranges and not shared with third party. Advice to be based on F range. b) Target stocks with no range defined or shared with third party. Advice to be based agreed management plan, ICES MSY or ICES PA. c) Non-target stocks with TAC and shared with third party. Advice to be based on agreed management plans, ICES MSY or ICES PA. d) Non-target stocks with TAC and not shared with third party. Advice to be based on ICES PA. e) Non-target stocks with no TAC. No advice on fishing opportunities. EU Multi Annual Plans (MPAs)

Management Plan/Strategy Consistent with PA Recognised by competent authorities No ICES MSY approach ICES PA approach No or EU non-target stock EU Multi Annual Plans (MPAs) advice on fishing opportunities

ICES single stock advice: Stock status relative to PA and MSY reference points Fishing opportunities for the comming year(s)

PA and MSY reference points PA Reference point B lim Bpa Fpa MSY Reference point F MSY Definition A deterministic stock biomass limit below which a stock is considered to have reduced reproductive capacity. A biomass stock status reference point above which the stock is considered to have full reproductive capacity, having accounted for estimation uncertainty. An exploitation rate reference point below which exploitation is considered to be sustainable, having accounted for estimation uncertainty. Purpose The F expected to give maximum sustainable yield in the long term. MSY B trigger A lower bound of the stock biomass when fished at F MSY

ICES MSY approach more caution below B lim Maximize long term average yield Safeguard against low SSB Stay within precautionary boundaries F MSY B trigger F MSY B lim Category 1 and 2 stocks SSB at start of advisory year

F ranges The F ranges in the MAP are consistent with the ranges provided by ICES in 2015. These were evaluated to result in no more than 5% reduction in long-term yield compared with MSY. The ranges are considered precautionary: less than 5% probability that the stock size will be below Blim.

ICES understanding of the harvest control rule in the MAP. Ftarget 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 Remedial measures Range B Range A 0,1 0,05 0 0 4110000 570000 B lim MSY Btrigger SSB Baltic sprat SSB 2018

Conditions for using upper F ranges if, on the basis of scientific advice or evidence, it is necessary for the achievement of the objectives in the case of mixed fisheries; if, on the basis of scientific advice or evidence, it is necessary to avoid serious harm to a stock caused by intra- or inter-species stock dynamics; or in order to limit variations in fishing opportunities between consecutive years to not more than 20 %.

ICES PA approach Category 1 and 2 stocks ICES is developing an advice rule based on Fpa and Bpa. Category 3 and 4 stocks Advice: (previous advice) multiplied by index ratio: (average index last 2 years)/(average index previous 3 years) also incorporating: 1. Uncertainty cap (20% change limit, to dampen noise) 2. Precautionary buffer 20% reduction. Applied first time advice is given and based on status relative to reference points. Category 3 and 4 stocks

Horse mackerel North Sea Index A (2015, 2016) 692 ind. h 1 Index B (2012, 2013, 2014) 254 ind. h 1 Ratio (A/B) 2.7 Uncertainty cap Applied 1.2 Precautionary buffer Applied 0.8 Advised catch for 2017 18247 tonnes Catch advice* 17517 tonnes Discard rate (average 2015 2016) 13.35% Landings corresponding to the catch advice** 15179 tonnes Category 3 and 4 stocks

Catch Landing Discard Wanted catch Above Minimum reference size Below Minimum reference size Live discard Dead discard Landing obligation/ discard ban

Northern hake Plaice North Sea General trend in stock size and exploitation

0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 1997 Plaice North Sea 0 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ 2016 Age composition 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ Growth Plaice - benthic invertebrates North Sea plaice

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 North Sea cod Anchovy 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 Mackerel catches by geographical area Northern hake Subareas 3,4 Subarea 6 Subarea 7; Div 8abde Subareas 1,2,5,14 Div 8c,9a Distribution

Single stock advice sheets: stock status and fishing opportunities for the coming year(s). Fisheries overviews: description of the fisheries, historical developments of stocks and fisheries, summary of stock status, mixed fisheries, species interaction, ecosystem effects of fisheries. Ecosystem overviews: description of the ecosystems, identify the main human pressures, and explain how these affect key ecosystem components. Advisory deliverables

ICES Fisheries overviews Landings Fishing effort Spatial distribution Temporal trends in F and SSB Species interaction Swept area

Mixed Fisheries herring and sprat The role of sprat and herring as forage fish in the Baltic Sea. The thiamine deficiency syndrome M74 is a reproductive disorder, which causes mortality among Baltic salmon caused by diet dominated by sprat. Changes in distribution of fish Fish growth

Conditions in MAP for using upper F ranges if, on the basis of scientific advice or evidence, it is necessary for the achievement of the objectives in the case of mixed fisheries; if, on the basis of scientific advice or evidence, it is necessary to avoid serious harm to a stock caused by intra- or inter-species stock dynamics; or in order to limit variations in fishing opportunities between consecutive years to not more than 20 %.

ICES Ecosystem overviews Management Politics Social & use Chlorophyll Benthic Habitat Pelagic Habitat