Changing Climate and the Outlook

Changing Climate and the Outlook for Oilseed 2016 Evelyn Browning Garriss

Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. There is a 90% chance the current El Niño will be strong and last through February and an 85% chance that it will last until May. Often after a strong El Niño a cooling La Nina follows close behind. The combination of the strong El Niño along with the eruption of an Icelandic volcano usually creates a warm dry winter in the Northern tier of states through the Midwest. Springtime El Niños create dry planting seasons for the Eastern Corn Belt. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look negative for European canola and sunflower oil. The timing of a potential 2016 La Niña will determine the 2016 soybean crop if it starts in summer, it would reduce soybean oil production, if later, it creates a good harvest. The El Niño is good for South American soybean production and bad for Asian soy and palm oil production. Historically El Niños reduce and La Niñas raise oilseed prices. Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 2

Basically the climate is determined by: How much solar radiation the Earth receives (the Sun) The patterns of where the solar radiation falls or is reflected (Clouds/Volcanoes) Where the heat from the solar radiation is stored (Oceans/Urban Heat Islands) Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 3

As an historical climatologist, I look at what factors are shaping the weather and use: Historical records, coral and tree rings, sediment layers, and glacial cores to learn how they shaped the weather in the past. Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 4

Meet the factors shaping global weather over the next six months! Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 5

Clouds, the debris from large volcanoes, and man-made aerosols can reflect back sunlight and change rainfall patterns. The 2014 15 eruption of Iceland s Bardarbunga volcano may affect this winter. Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 6

North Atlantic volcanoes change the jetstream over the Atlantic. North Pacific volcanoes change the jetstream over the Pacific. Strong Icelandic Low Positive NAO Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 7

Iceland had 3 large eruptions over the past century, in 1918, 1947 1949 and 2012 El Niño 1919 1949 The following winters had warm mid-winters in the Midwest and Northeast. 2012 The 1918 eruption was during an El Niño and did not interfere with the El Niño effect. Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 8 8

Oceans store and transport heat PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation 50 year cycle There are several oscillating patterns of ocean currents. Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss 9

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Oceans store and transport heat The long-term Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) turned positive in 1995. The Gulf stream flows faster. The North Atlantic warms. warm Atlantic cool Atlantic The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 1856-2009 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss 11

This year s precipitation is coming in the form of extreme storms. Goliath http://ww1.hdnux.com/photos/42/75/43/9165040/3/920x920.jpg Jonas http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/weather_weekly//2010s/2 016/weather_weekly-01-28-2016.pdf Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss 12

Three factors are increasing the extreme nature of this year s storms: 1. El Niño is creating atmospheric rivers which pour tropical moisture into storms. 2. The Atlantic is extraordinarily hot, creating high humidity. 3. Debris from Iceland s Bárðarbunga volcano is creating more micro-droplets and thicker clouds. This trend will continue into spring creating very severe and damaging spring storms in North America and Europe. Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss 13

One of the results of this pattern of heavy storms followed by heat is the rapid melt of snow. This has caused heavy flooding. http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id =ww_past Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss 14

The warm phase of the AMO diverts precipitation from the Gulf, Great Plains and Prairie Provinces. Warm AMO This increases the risk of heat waves, droughts and wildfires. Cool AMO Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss 15

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A cool MJO entering the El Niño Predicted conditions Current conditions 1.4ºC 2.1ºC 1.8ºC 0.9ºC The majority of climate, weather and oceanological agencies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina /enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Give a 90% chance of El Niño continuing through winter and Give a 85% chance of it lingering into springtime Expect it to be strong (more than 1.5 C / 2.7 F) all winter. Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss 17

El Niño weather: January, February and March temperature & precipitation STRONG El Niño Temperature Anomalies January - March courtesy: NOAA Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss 18

El Niño Winter Winter Temperature Departures from normal during 1997-98 El Niño (departure from mean) Great Lakes Region RESULTS Less transportation disruption (including shipping), lower energy demands and retail sales and warmer conditions for cattle and agriculture. Winter Precipitation Departures from normal during 1997-98 El Niño (percent of mean) courtesy: NOAA Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss 19

Winter Temperature Departures from normal during 1997-98 El Niño (departure from mean) Winter Precipitation Departures from normal during 1997-98 El Niño (percent of mean) courtesy: Midwestern Regional Climate Center Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 20

Spring March / April / May Moderate El Niño Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Anomalies Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 21

+ + * * + A moderate Russian volcanic eruption will make this region colder *If El Niño conditions continue. + * Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 22

There is a strong chance of a La Niña starting this year. El Niño year Strength Time until La Niña conditions 2015-2016 2.3?? 1997-98 2.3 2 months July Month La Niña started 1982-83 2.1 4 months October 1972-73 2.0 3 months June 1965-66 1.8 20 months December 1957-58 1.7 5 years May 1991-92 1.6 6 years August Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss 23

If La Niña conditions develop, Kansas, the Eastern Corn Belt and South would have dry conditions and more heat. La Niña Precipitation Anomalies August / September / October La Niña Temperature Anomalies August / September / October http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/ens O/composites/lanina.aso.temp.gif Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 24

Though rainfall is strongly stagnated, South American crops will in the end have a higher yield overall. Average % Soil Moisture February 11-20, 2016 Major crops in South America http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/ Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 25

Gouveia, Célia, Trigo, Ricardo M., DaCamara, Carlos C., Libonati, Renata,"The North Atlantic Oscillation and European vegetation dynamics"international Journal of Climatology Vol. 28, #14John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 26

Asia The Historical Impact of El Niño on Asia s Spring Precipitation USDA/FAS/OGA Percent of Normal Precipitation February 11-20, 2016 Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 27

Southeast Asia Seasonal Percent of Normal Precipitation USDA/FAS/OGA Percent of Normal Precipitation February 11-20, 2016 Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 28

There is a new paradigm in the Pacific The Pacific Decadal Oscillation tipped from a positive to a negative trend in 2006. Positive (warm phase) PDO 1976-1998 The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Each phase lasts 20-30 years Negative (cool phase) PDO 2006-present Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 29

The Atlantic AMO changed in 1995. The Pacific Dedacal Oscillation is less stable but from the mid 1970s to the late 1990s the US & Canada enjoyed the most benign combination of the PDO and AMO. Since 2006, the two oceans have combined to create dry weather in the West and Great Plains. As the east Pacific changes from cool to warm and back again, drought hits much of the nation for months, even years at a time. during some El Niños Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 30

The impact on agriculture Wheat 1960-2011 Corn 1960-2011 Stockcube Research Ltd Soybeans 1962-2011 Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 31

The impact on Food Prices Food prices drop: cool PDO + warm El Niño warm PDO + cool La Niña Food prices jump*: cool PDO + cool La Niña warm PDO + warm El Niño *jump is more extreme at the beginning of the cycle Courtesy FAO Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 32

Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. There is a 90% chance the current El Niño will be strong and last through February and an 85% chance that it will last until May. Often after a strong El Niño a cooling La Nina follows close behind. The combination of the strong El Niño along with the eruption of an Icelandic volcano usually creates a warm dry winter in the Northern tier of states through the Midwest. Springtime El Niños create dry planting seasons for the Eastern Corn Belt. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look negative for European canola and sunflower oil. The timing of a potential 2016 La Niña will determine the 2016 soybean crop if it starts in summer, it would reduce soybean oil production, if later, it creates a good harvest. The El Niño is good for South American soybean production and bad for Asian soy and palm oil production. Historically El Niños reduce and La Niñas raise oilseed prices. Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 33

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