Education and Training 2020: progress being made?

ACA POLICY SEMINAR, Brussels, 20 January 2012 Education and Training 2020: progress being made? Richard Deiss, European Commission, DG Education and Culture, Unit A4 -Analysis and Studies 20 slides 1

From Lisbon to Europe 2020 GDP growth 3.8 2.0 1.2 1.3 2.5 2.0 3.4 3.1 0.5-4.3 1.9 1.6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 March 2000: Lisbon Strategy: Most competitive knowledge based economy in the world with better jobs and more social inclusion 1999: Bologna declarat. March 2002: Barcelona European Council with goals for RTD, languages, pre-school Council education: Detailed Work Programme Later ET 2010 Council conclusions on ET benchmarks Council and Parl. Recomm on key comp. Council conclusions on coherent framework for indicators Council conclusions on ET 2020 Incl. Education benchmarks 2010 Bologna Leuven meeting New programme generation March 2010: Europe 2020 Strategy Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth

Global trends 180 160 World tertiary student population 1900-2008 World 140 120 100 Before 1800: less than 50 000 students in Europe 2009: China 29.3 EU 19.5 USA 19.1 India 18.6 165, one in 42 80 60 40 20 0 1900 EU 0.2 USA 0.16 0.5 one in 3300 1950: USA: 2.7 EU 1.0 China 0.1 EU 27 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 One in 8 tertiary students world wide studies in the EU (2000: 1 in 6). Growing participation in education, massification and globalisation in higher education. 2011: 175 million tertiary students (EU 1/9).

ET 2010: 5 Education benchmarks Data Data Indicators + Targets Benchmarks 5 benchmarks adopted by the Council in May 2003 (to be achieved by 2010) -Low achievers in reading (measured by PISA) : -20% (2000: 21.3%) -Early school leavers: not more than 10% (2000: 17.6%, 2010: 14.1%) -Upper secondary attainment: at least 85% (2000: 76.6%, 2010: 79.0%) -MST graduates: 15% increase, better gender balance (2000-09: +41.5%) -Lifelong learning participation: at least 12.5% (2000: 7.1%, 2010: 9.1%) In addition quantitative goals set by Barcelona 2002 Spring European Council (languages, pre-school, R&D) and Commission proposal for a 2% goal for investment in higher education.

Education and training 2010 Progress towards meeting the 5 benchmarks (EU average), 2000-2010 277 MST graduates 2010 benchmarks = 100 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 10 20-10 0-20 -30-40 -50-60 -70-80 Benchmarks adopted Early school leavers Upper secondary 2000 (above 0 = 2001 performance 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 improving, below: worsening) Low achievers in reading Year progress required Adult lifelong learning 5 benchmarks adopted in 2003 (Com. proposed in 2002 also a benchmark on investment). Progress, but only one reached in 2010. 5

ET 2010: MST graduate benchmark 2000000 Number of MST graduates China 1500000 Marie Curie 1867-1934 1000000 500000 0 EU27 USA Japan 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Share of female graduates 2000: 30.7% 2007: 31.9% 2008: 32.6% (highest, > 40%: RO, EE, lowest, < 20% : NL, JP) MST benchmark reached, but stronger growth in emerging economies 6

Education and training 2020 4 Strategic goals I Making lifelong learning and mobility a reality II Improving the quality and efficiency of education and training II Promoting equity, social inclusion and active citizenship IV Enhancing creativity and innovation, incl. entrepreneurship 5 Benchmarks 95% Participation in early childhood educ. (4+, 2009: 91.7%) 15% Low performers in PISA (15; reading, math and science, 2009:20%) 10% Early school leavers (18-24; 2010: 14.1%) 40% Tertiary completion (30-34, 2010: 33.6%) 15% Lifelong learning participation (25-64, 2010: 9.1%) 3 benchmarks to be developed: mobility, employability, languages If you want to measure change, don t change the measure. E. Gonzalez 7

Education and training 2020 100 Progress towards the 2020 education benchmarks, Evolution 2000-2010 90 80 70 60 Pre-primary participation Tertiary attainment progress required 50 40 30 20 10 0 Early school leavers Low achievers in reading, maths, science Adult lifelong learning 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Parable of the three frogs Progress on track (if based on past trends), except for adult LLL 8

ET 2020: Early childhood education EU Member States non-eu countries 5 HR Progress (compound annual growth rate 00-08, %) 4 3 2 1 0 Returns age PL EL FI IE BG SK LT RO PT CY AT SI LV 2020 benchmark (>95%) CZ DK DE SE EE EU27 LU NO HU IS UK BE NL FR IT ES MT -1-2 50 60 70 80 90 100 Performance (Children aged 4 years that participate in early childhood education, %, 2008) Lifelong learning perspective of new benchmarks- early childhood-adults. Returns to investment in human capital decline with age (earlier better).

ET 2020: Low achievers EU Member States non-eu countries 15 Progress (compound annual growth rate 00-09, %) 10 5 0-5 2020 benchmark (<15%) FI NL EE NO PL SE IS DK IE HU LV 2010 benchmark (<17%) FR ES BE UK DE PT EU27 CZ IT SI EL SK LT TR LU AT RO BG 1957: Sputnik shock 2001: PISA shock 2010: Shanghai surprise Gauss curve -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Performance (Students with low levels of reading literacy in PISA (Level 1 and below), %, 2009) Low achiever benchmark enlarged from reading only to include also maths and science and ambition level raised to 15% or less low achievers.

ET 2020: adult lifelong learning EU Member States non-eu countries 20 Catching up Moving further ahead Progress (compound annual growth rate 00-09, %) 15 10 5 0-5 fyr Macedonia Turkey Cyprus Portugal Estonia Greece Germany Austria Romania Malta Slovenia Czech Rep Croatia Lithuania EU27 Norway Sweden Bulgaria Spain Ireland United Kingdom Poland Netherlands Italy Belgium Finland Iceland France Slovakia 2010 benchmark (>12.5%) Latvia Hungary Falling further behind 2020 benchmark (>15%) Luxembourg Denmark Losing momentum Mathew s law Moore s law -10 0 10 20 30 40 Performance (%, 2009) Participation declines with age and increases with education level. Highest level in Nordic countries. Life expectancy increasing by 2 years per decade.

Benchmarks: Overall performance Early childhood education Low achievers Early school leavers Tertiary attainment Best performers France, Belgium, NL, Spain, Italy Finland, Estonia, Netherlands Poland, Slovakia, Czech Rep. Ireland, Denmark, Luxembourg Adult LLL Denmark, Sweden, Finland Overall Finland, Denmark, Sweden Catching up most Cyprus, Latvia, Romania Poland, Portugal, Latvia Portugal, Malta Ireland, Luxembourg, France Estonia, Luxembourg Lux, Poland, Cyprus International comparisons are useful, as long as they are not taken too seriously. Ben Levin

Benchmarks: new benchmarks to be developed Learning mobility Adoption by Council November 2011 Data development activities Eurobarometer (2011), Eurostat household survey, Eurostat UOE (admin. data) EAC initial VET study Employability May 2012 Based on existing LFS data Language skills (Nov 2012) Based on European Language Survey ESLC (results May 2012) Learning mobility benchmark adopted Nov. 2011: 20% of higher education graduates to have learning mobility experience (> 3 months/15 ECTS), 6% of IVET graduates (> 2 weeks)

Europe 2020 Strategy Education headline targets: Early school leavers (10%) Higher education attainment rate (40%) F Countries setting concrete national targets within reform programmes Area Smart growth Sustainable growth Inclusive growth 7 flagship initiatives Digital agenda for Europe Innovation Union Youth on the move Resource efficient Europe Industrial policy for globalisation era An agenda for new skills and jobs European platform against poverty For the first time education targets part of an overall EU strategy 14

Headline target early school leavers Overview of national targets. Early school leavers 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Slovakia Czech Rep 2010 results 2020 targets EU 2020 target level Slovenia Poland Luxembourg Lithuania Austria Sweden Netherlands Finland Ireland Hungary Denmark Estonia Belgium Germany Cyprus France Latvia Greece Bulgaria EU 27 UK Romania Italy Spain Portugal Malta National targets represent an EU performance level in 2020 of 10.3-10.5% Demographic shift makes benchmark more difficult to achieve. 15

Headline target on higher education 70 % Higher education attainment (30-34 year olds) 60 50 40 result 2010 target 2020 EU 2020 target level 30 20 10 0 Ireland Denmark Luxembourg Finland Sweden Cyprus Belgium Lithuania France UK Netherlands Spain Estonia Poland Slovenia EU 27 Latvia Germany Greece Bulgaria Hungary Austria Portugal Slovakia Czech Rep National targets represent an EU performance level in 2020 of 37.5-38% Demographic shift to high performing countries helps to reach target. Competitors: (2009, 25-34): USA 41%, Japan 56%, S. Korea 63%. Italy Malta Romania 16

Publications: Progress Report Benford law applies, half of figures start with 1 or 2 Plus additional condensed products, like leaflets Structured according to 4 strategic areas of ET 2020 I: Making LLL and mobility a reality II: improving quality and efficiency of education and training Annual Progress report (since 2004, 100-200 pages, next report: autumn 2012). F To be developed into a shorter Education and Training Monitor in 2012. III: Promoting equity, social cohesion and active citizenship IV: Enhancing creativity and innovation Smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics. Liza Minelli

Analysis of data- general questions Credibility of data: fact or fiction Comparability of systems: apples/oranges Cause and effect: first chicken or egg Correlation: covariation or causality Change over time: trend or stat. noise Impact: time lags or lack of elasticity Skills: nature or nurture Degrees: Signalling/ own value There are unknown unknowns, things we don t know we don t know. D. Rumsfeld

The coming years Presidency DK CY Presidency IRL LT Presidency Greece Italy Presidency LV LUX Presidency NL SK Presidency MT UK Presidency EE BG Presidency AT RO 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Croatia joins EU European year of citizens Midterm review New EU Strategy New Commission New programme generation (with more resources) 19

Thank you for your attention! e-mail: richard.deiss@ec.europa.eu DG EAC Annual education progress report Europe 2020 Eurostat CRELL http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/education_culture/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/education/lifelong-learning-policy/doc2881_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ http://crell.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ Make it as simple as possible, but not simpler. Albert Einstein. 20