U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 1 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 July 2018
Key Messages Sales remain resilient backed by robust economic growth Automakers continue to benefit from consumers favoring light-trucks over cars Higher interest rates and gasoline prices may impact demand through the remaining of the year International trade disputes have the potential to disrupt supply chains and affect consumers through higher prices Going forward, companies are expected to continue investing in advanced driver-assistance systems, and vehicle electrification
01 Sales U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 3
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 4 Sales U.S. Total light weight vehicle sales (SAAR, million units) 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201 Total Domestic Imported
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 5 Sales U.S. Total vehicle sales (SAAR, million units) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cars Light trucks Medium and heavy trucks (right axis) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 6 Sales U.S. Total vehicle sales (Share of total) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Trucks Cars
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 7 Sales U.S. Domestic auto inventory/sales ratio (Seasonally adjusted) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Volvo Mitsubishi Audi VolksWagen Subaru Porsche Land Rover Toyota BMW Tesla Honda GM Ford Mercedes- Benz Mazda Jaguar Nissan Fiat Chrysler Kia Hyundai U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 8 Sales U.S. Sales growth by brand (1Q18, yoy % 4Q-moving average) 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 9 Prices U.S. Consumer price index: cars and trucks (yoy % change) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Used
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 10 Prices U.S. Auto Prices 140 130 120 110 100 40,000 35,000 30,000 90 25,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Manheim used vehicles value index Edmunds Vehicle True Market Value (right axis) Source: BBVA Research, Haver Analytics and Bloomberg
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 11 Financial conditions U.S. Interest rates (yoy % change) 7 6 5 4 3 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 48-month new car loan 36-month used car loan 60-month new car
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 12 Financial conditions U.S. Newly originated installment auto loans ($ billion, eop, 4-qtr moving avg.) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 13 Financial conditions U.S. Auto loan 90+ days delinquent (% of balance) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 14 Leasing U.S. Leasing penetration rate (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 15 Gasoline U.S. Spot price (cents per gallon) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
02 Consumers U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 16
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 17 Consumers U.S. Consumer sentiment index 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Current economic conditions Consumer expectations
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 18 Consumers U.S. Plans to buy a car within 6 months (% of respondents) 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 19 Consumers U.S. Nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate (yoy % change and %) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Nonfarm payroll Unemployment rate (%, right axis)
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 20 Consumers U.S. Household equity and home prices 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Owners equity in real estate (NSA billion $, left axis) FHFA house price index (yoy change, right axis)
03 Production U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 21
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 22 Production U.S. Auto production 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Industrial production index: autos (2007=100, left axis) BEA Auto Production Estimate (SAAR, million units, right axis)
04 Structural U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 23
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Miles per capita Million miles U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 24 Fundamentals Mean age of passenger cars in operation (years) Vehicle miles of travel (total and adjusted by labor force) 12.0 14000 3500000 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 2016: 11.6 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 0 Population adjusted (left axis) Total (right axis)
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 25 Demographics U.S. Population projections by age (millions) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 15-44 years 65 years and over
mar-15 may-15 jul-15 sep-15 nov-15 ene-16 mar-16 may-16 jul-16 sep-16 nov-16 ene-17 mar-17 may-17 jul-17 sep-17 nov-17 ene-18 mar-18 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 26 Electric vehicles U.S. Electric vehicle sales (units) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Hybrids Plug-in Hybrid (right axis) Battery Electric Vehicle (right axis)
05 Forecasts U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 27
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 28 Forecast 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Auto sales (millions units) Real GDP growth (% change) Unemployment rate (% avg.) Fed funds (%, eop) 5-year Treasuries (%, avg) 17.5 17.5 17.3 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.5 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 5.3 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.3 0.50 0.75 1.50 2.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 Source: BBVA Research
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 29 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 July 2018