californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Thursday, April 5, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers The Santa Anita Derby The big news this week is that on Saturday, we will find The Santa Anita Derby on our racing card. (Missing will be, McKinzie, and there will be no rematch then of the Bolt D Oro/McKinzie recent duel.) As you know, the top four horses in this race will earn coveted points for entry into The Kentucky Derby. The Santa Anita Derby is the third from last 2018 Kentucky Derby qualifying race. The two remaining such races after Saturday are the Arkansas Derby, at Oaklawn on April 14, and The Lexington, at Keeneland, also on April 14. The Kentucky Derby (May 5) Our legendary trainer, Bob Baffert, sure has had a string of bad luck this year. He lost Mourinho forever a couple of weeks ago to a tragic misstep in a training accident. Now, McKinzie has suffered an undiagnosed musculoskeletal problem that will keep him out of The Santa Anita Derby and may jeopardize his entry into The Kentucky Derby. By virtue of his resounding win in The Florida Derby last weekend, Audible has assured himself an entry into The Big Race. Other virtually certain entries into the twenty equines that comprise The Big Race: Noble Indy, Mendelsohn, Bolt D Oro, Enticed, Bravazo, and Promises Fulfilled. As before, I will be transmitting a free Kentucky Derby preview to all of you around May 1. My Kentucky Derby detailed analysis will be available soon thereafter, for $30. Arcadia, California For those of you, like me, who are not fortunate enough to live in Southern California, you may want to go on You Tube, and find a 28 minute video posted by a local realtor called Arcadia of course. You will see a nice view of Santa Anita, with gorgeous San Pedro mountains in the background, and come away with a very good impression as to how Eden-like beautiful the town is. As for me unfortunately
living there will only be a pipe dream, as the most expensive home is $22 million, and the least expensive home is a 900 square foot condo, priced at a cool $375000. One thing for sure: the lovely town s residents are not bus drivers or race handicappers lol Have a winsome day! Note: Post time today is 12:00 pm PDT and 3:00 pm EDT. Thursday, April 5, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day.
Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 1, 2, 4, 5 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it
makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in this free version of californiawinning.com s selections, because M/ L odds were not available at the time of this posting. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! RACE 1: Banze No Oeste wins 25% of his turf races, kills race distance ( RD ) (2/9, OB 7/9) and enjoys the avuncular yet sophisticated Santa Anita crowd as he murders the downhill here, he has shown the most speed at RD and will battle royally. Coastline is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the M/L favorite, as he is one of four entries with a win at RD, a distance at which he nearly always hits the board, today he has a leg up, or four legs up, as he carries turf master Desormeaux. Boy Howdy secures class relief, wins 25% of his races, and shows very good works, including five furlongs on the grass here at a bullet 59 4 on the grass, this is indeed his first turf race but I give him a decent shot. RACE 2: The odds maker(s) appear to expect a two-horse duel Veiled Heat is the cofavorite at a M/L of 8/5, as the filly has hit the board in all three races at RD, her chances are enhanced by the talented apprentice in the irons, he of the hefty ten pound weight allowance (it will be as though she is issued a significant head start). Yalla is indeed the favorite, as she has hit the board in five of seven dirt sprints, she finished one-half length behind Veiled Heat when the two dueled at RD plus one furlong here last month, however she is less rested by nine days so I give the edge to Veiled Heat. Very well-rested Madera Jubilee moves down a little classwise, she shows some spirited recent works and is good enough to show up in this bland field. ***** RACE 4:
Tiny Tina is the M/L favorite: she won her only effort at RD, here last January, and subsequently placed at RD plus 330 feet, she has a top-notch trainer and looms large. Somewhat restless (i.e., 20 days rest) Avail won her only effort at RD, here last fall, she has not missed the board on a main track and will be in the hunt. Donut Girl comes off a fairly easy win in her debut here seventeen days ago, she joins top trainer with very good rider and will vie. Likeable Longshot: (Not included with this free version) RACE 5: Rested California Breeze makes the precipitous and propitious class drop out of MSW, the filly has hit the board in both of her tries on the downhill here, her two most recent races, she shows pretty good turf works and she (Partial, the other contenders are available in the paid version ) ***** californiawinning.com To see the rest of today s analysis---including the all-important Likeable Longshots--- Why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day less than what the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, for either Today s Full Race card for the mere sum of $2, or, better yet, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Thanks very much.
Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?