The Demographic Factor

AGEING A CHALLENGE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE COUNTRIES OF EASTERN EUROPE, CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA Chisinau, March 2007 The Demographic Factor Dimiter Philipov Vienna Institute of Demography 1

CONTENTS 1. Definition and measurement of ageing: Indicators, trends, pyramids 2. Demographic causes of ageing: Changes in fertility; recent trends Changes in mortality; recent trends 3. Demographic aspects of ageing (a brief): Marital status of the aged Gender differences in the aged population 4. Summary: the future of population ageing 2

1. Defining aging: Who is old? A person can be biologically old; or a person in pension; or a person who is a grandparent, etc. A demographic definition of old people : the proportion of the population aged 65 or more years (or 60 or more) - This is a basic indicator of population ageing Oldest-old: more than 80 years old 3

Other indicators: Median age of the population Old-age support ratio Usually defined as the ratio of the population aged 65+ to the population aged 15 to 64 completed years of age (per 100 persons) Other definitions: 65+/20-64; 60+/15-64; 4

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 8.6 BELARUS 14.7 25.8 2050 5 2040 2030 0-14 15-64 65+ 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 UN projection medium variant 1970 1960 1950

6 26 8 7 17 5 4 Turkey 39 21 14 24 14 10 Serbia + Montenegro 50 21 16 29 15 10 Romania 41 16 11 25 11 7 FYR Macedonia 50 26 17 29 16 11 Croatia 53 24 20 30 17 13 Bulgaria 47 20 9 28 14 6 Bosnia and Herzegovina 30 13 9 19 8 5 Albania 2050 2005 1990 2050 2005 1990 Dependency ratio Percent 65+

7 50 23 18 29 16 12 Ukraine 38 19 15 23 14 10 Russia 42 14 13 26 10 8 Moldova 46 21 14 27 14 9 Georgia 43 21 16 26 15 11 Belarus 30 11 7 12 7 4 Azerbaijan 39 18 9 24 12 6 Armenia 2050 2005 1990 2050 2005 1990 Dependency ratio Percent 65+

Percent 65+ Dependency ratio 1990 2005 2050 1990 2005 2050 Kyrgyzstan 5 6 16 9 10 23 Tajikistan 4 4 11 7 7 15 Turkmenistan 4 5 15 7 7 22 Uzbekistan 4 5 15 7 7 22 Kazakhstan 5 9 19 8 12 30 8

9 69 30 22 36 20 15 Italy 48 26 21 28 17 14 Western Europe 48 23 19 28 16 13 Europe 41 12 9 25 9 6 Eastern Asia 27 10 8 18 6 5 Asia 25 11 10 16 7 6 World 2050 2005 1990 2050 2005 1990 Dependency ratio 65+

UKRAINE 1960 UKRAINE 2005 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 AGE 50 AGE 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 0 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 Males Females Males Females 10

Note: per thousand distribution of the total population 11

12

13

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Kazakhstan Uzbekistan 100+ 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 1000 500 0 500 1000 Males Females 100+ 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 Males Females 15

1950 100+ Bulgaria: 1950 2000 2050 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 2000 2050 100+ 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 100+ 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 16

Causes of demographic ageing: Two main causes: Drop in fertility. It has a relative effect Drop in mortality. It has a direct effect (Migration may have an effect) 17

Stages in the process of ageing: The demographic transition caused population ageing in all countries: First, a steady drop in fertility - the pyramid shrinks from below Second, a drop in mortality rises life expectancy - may effect the whole age structure; Exceptions: both changes start about together (some CEE countries). 18

Which cause has stronger effect? During the first stage: fertility During the second stage: mortality (after child and adult mortality have declined, old-age mortality decline continues) At present times the cause is country-specific - The first stage prevails in the CARK countries - The second stage prevails in the other countries (of our interest) 19

Fertility: recent trends TFR Mean age Postponement effects 20

total fertility rate Balkan countries (lower fertility) 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Bosnia- Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Romania Serbia and Montenegro 5.0 Balkan countries (higher fertility) total fertility rate 4.0 3.0 2.0 Albania Turkey 1.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 21

CIS countries (Europe) total fertility rate 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Moldova Russian F. Ukraine 6.0 5.0 4.0 Central Asia Kazahstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan TFR 3.0 2.0 1.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 22

Mean age at first birth Mean Age at First Birth 28 27 26 25 24 23 EU members Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Rep. 22 Slovenia 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Mean Age at First Birth 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 Balkan countries 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Bosnia- Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Romania Serbia and Montenegro 23

Mean Age at First Birth 26 25 24 23 22 21 CIS European states 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Moldova Russian F. Ukraine 24 23.7 Central A s ia Kazahstan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan MAFB 23.4 23.1 22.8 22.5 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 24

TFR(1) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 First-order TFR New EU members Czech Rep. Hungary Slovenia Poland Slovak Rep. 0.5 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1 Russia and Baltic countries Estonia TFR(1) 0.9 0.8 0.7 Latvia Lithuania Russian F. 0.6 0.5 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 25

TFR(1) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Balkan countries Bulgaria Romania Macedonia Croatia 0.5 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1 0.9 Central Asia Kazahstan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan TFR(1) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 1994 1996 1998 2000 26

The effect of postponement of births on the TFR 24-yr. olds born in: 1973 1974 1975 1976 Year... 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002... Age: 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 25 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 26 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TFR 2 2 1 1 2 2 CF 2 2 2 2 2 27

Tempo and Quantum of Fertility Observed TFR is distorted, because of the tempo effect; Demographers discuss the estimation of a TFR clear of tempo effect. It is called adjusted TFR; The adjusted TFR is a measure of quantum; Adjustment is done for each birth order. 28

Adjusted TFR(1) It is app. 15-20% higher than the observed one. Observed Adjusted Bulgaria, 2001 0.72 0.90 Croatia,1998 0.60 0.68 Romania,1997 0.69 0.81 Kazahstan,1998 0.79 0.98 29

Fertility Trends - Summary Before the start of the transition: - Universality of childbearing; - First child at an early age; - Stopping childbearing at an early age; - App. 2 children per woman 30

After the start of the transition - No universality of childbearing, voluntary childlessness increased - Drop in fertility: Single-child families prevail - Postponement of childbearing - Increase in extra-marital births - Diversity in choices increased 31

Fertility forecasts Very high uncertainty Assumption that TFR goes back to replacement level is not as favorite as in the past UN projections: - Medium variant: ultimate value of TFR=1.85 - Low variant: TFR(2005) - 0.5 - High variant: TFR(2005) + 0.5 32

Mortality Expectation of life at birth Infant mortality Adult mortality Causes of mortality 33

Expectation of life at birth: Balkan countries (1) Bulgaria Romania Turkey 80 75 70 65 60 55 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 80 75 70 65 60 55 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Left females, right - males 34

Balkan countries (2) TFYR Macedonia Albania Bosnia and H. Serbia and M. Croatia 85 80 75 70 65 60 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 80 75 70 65 60 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Left females, right - males 35

CIS - Europe 80 Armenia Belarus Russian Federation Republic of Moldova Azerbaijan Georgia Ukraine 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 55 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Left females, right - males 36

CARK countries 75 Kazakhstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 55 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Left females, right - males 37

Infant mortality Definition: number of deaths of babies less than 1 year old to 1000 live births WHO and ex-soviet definitions of a birth differ and their impact on infant mortality 38

Infant mortality 1990-2003 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Balkan Countries Albania Bulgaria Croatia FYR Mac. Romania Turkey 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 39

40 30 CIS - Europe A rmenia Belarus Moldova Ukraine A zerbaijan Georgia Russia 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 50 40 CARK Kazakhstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 40

Causes of Death Definitions: ICD-10 Main cause: Increase in cardio-vascular diseases and injuries in CIS+CARK; Alcohol consumption and Smoking; Reasons: unhealthy diet and lifestyle, result of impoverishment and stress; Impact stronger among people with lower education, lower income, unemployed 41

Mortality forecasts Lower uncertainty than those for fertility Gradual increase in life expectancy at birth due to: - fall in infant mortality - fall in adult mortality - fall in old-age mortality: main component 42

Demographic aspects of ageing Gender differences in the aged population Old women outnumber old men (cf. sexspecific life expectancy) Marital status of the aged Many old women are widows; frequently living alone Regional aspects of ageing: T-shaped pyramids can be observed! 43

SUMMARY (Back to population ageing) Population ageing is a slow, long-term process. Once begun, it lasts for decades. The pace of the process is determined by: - The age structure of the population - Changes in fertility - Changes in mortality 44

Summary: support ratio Old-age support ratio does not change considerably during the first state of population ageing (can even temporarily decline) It can be estimated with high accuracy for at least 15 years ahead 45

Summary: population ageing Is it a negative process? NO! Problems caused by population ageing need to be addressed with adequate policies Longer life raises the issue of healthy life Oldest-old: an emerging population subgroup 46