The Multipurpose & Heavy Lift transportation outlook 18 th February 215 BreakBulk Africa Congress Johannesburg, South Africa By Drewry Maritime Research oatway@drewry.co.uk 18 th February 215
2 Agenda The Multipurpose and Heavy Lift Fleet Cargo Demand Outlook
3 MPV fleet age profile as at January 1 st, 215 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - 2-5, 5-1, 1-15, 15-2, 2-35, 35,+ Average dwt (RH axis)
4 Project carriers within the MPV fleet ( dwt) 35,+ dwt 2-35, dwt Dwt Sector 15-2, dwt 1-15, dwt 5-1, dwt 2-5, dwt - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, Multipurpose Heavy Lift Project carrier Premium Project carrier
5 Fleet development by vessel type ( dwt) 3, 2,5 Scheduled deliveries 2, 1,5 1, 5 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Multipurpose Vessels Project carriers inc HeavyLift 2,5 2, Scheduled demolitions 1,5 1, 5 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Multipurpose Vessels Project carriers inc HeavyLift
6 Fleet with current orderbook, as at January 1 st,215 35,+ 2-35, dwt sector 15-2, 1-15, 5-1, 2-5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, ' dwt Fleet OrderBook
7 Multipurpose fleet development to 216 ( dwt) 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Multipurpose Vessels Project carriers inc HeavyLift
8 Decline of simple multipurpose fleet % Newbuilding deliveries Project carriers: 72% 211 61% 212 69% 213 5% 214 Average for the last five years: 63% Average age of fleet sectors: Simple Multipurpose: 17 yrs Project Carrier: 9.5 yrs Premium Project Carrier: 8 yrs 47% of vessels on order as of Jan 1st 215 have confirmed heavy lift capability MPV share of project cargo estimated to be growing faster than share of breakbulk cargo - in the short term at least
9 Suggested fleet development by vessel type ( dwt) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 -1, -1,5-2, -2,5 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, PC deliveries (incl. HL) MPV deliveries (not incl. PC) MPV demolitions (not incl. PC) HL demolitions MPV fleet (not incl. PC, right axis) PC fleet (incl. HL, right axis)
1 Suggested development of dry cargo demand (million tonnes) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Total Dry Cargo Total Container cargo Total Bulk Cargo MPV Market share (rh axis), WTO
11 Suggested development of general cargo market (million tonnes) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Non Container/ General Cargo Total Container Cargo, WTO
12 Development of MPV market share to 216 (million tonnes) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Bulk cargo MPV share of bulk cargo General cargo MPV share of general cargo
13 Growth in the fleet versus growth in demand to 216 14% 12% 1% Demand growth slower over 215 8% 6% 4% Fleet stagnates over 215 2% % -2% 212 213 214 215 216 Fleet growth Demand growth
14 Conclusions and challenges Steady fleet development expected for project carriers with new investment in eco designs and high spec vessels Demand for the sector continues to grow for both breakbulk and project cargo Encroachment by competing sectors still evident and unlikely to wane in the short term Project cargo demand dependent on developing economies
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