Mutton Snapper SEDAR 15A Update Assessment

Mutton Snapper SEDAR 15A Update Assessment Joe O Hop, Robert G. Muller, and Dustin T. Addis South Atlantic Fishery Management Council SSC meeting Assessment Findings April 29, 2015

Mutton Snapper Range Maryland to southeastern Brazil (Aquamaps.org) In U.S. continental waters, most abundant in SE FL and FL Keys

Mutton Snapper A single demographic stock in U.S. continental waters which is distinct from stocks in Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands Based on recent genetics studies (Carson et al. ) Specimens from the Riley s Hump aggregations (Florida Keys) distinct genetically from specimens from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands likely due to low rates of connectivity in larval recruitment. No specimens from the central and western Caribbean (e.g., Cuba, Belize, Yucatan Peninsula and Campeche Banks) as yet in genetic comparisons. US South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions treated as one for the SEDAR 15A assessment and for this update.

Mutton Snapper Assessment Southeastern U.S. waters, NC-TX, -

Mutton Snapper SEDAR 15A Review Panel suggestions (consensus report, February 2008) Discards: Alternative data streams based on the range of plausible assumptions about discards should be tested in the model as the basis for additional sensitivity runs. - additional data available Index weights: All indices were given the same weight in the ASAP model, but some may be more reliable than others. Consider methods for developing more objective weighting. - fewer indices, applied to specific ages Consider alternatives to caught/targeting criteria (e.g., Stephens and MacCall method) in constructing recreational CPUE indices. - clustering used Do not include interaction terms in the commercial longline and vertical line CPUE indices. The year term should captures all the inter-annual variability in catch rates. Year could be incorporated in a random effects term model to capturing more of the uncertainty. removed interaction term Do not split the Head Boat CPUE index into two series based on changes in size limits over those time periods. Instead, the selectivity function should account for changes in minimum legal size. one unified index made, but Develop a more consistent approach for separating age 2 and 3 fish in the FWC Visual Survey - (note: this survey is now part of the NMFS-UM RVC)

Mutton Snapper SEDAR 15A Review Panel suggestions (continued) ASAP is an age-based model and requires input of age composition data. Length frequency data were converted to age frequencies using fishery specific age-length keys. Age-at-length data were aggregated across years that had constant minimum size limits. This approach tends to normalize the data and relative year-class signals will be lost. Sensitivity runs using direct ageing all tended to estimate current biomass below the F30% benchmark, while trials with the synthetic age frequency data estimated higher current abundance. These differences may result from less data available using direct ageing methods, but could also be the result of the age-length key conversions of length to age. - no change in update Selectivity curves estimated for all fisheries were highly dome-shaped which may result in cryptic biomass and the potential to overestimate SSB if selectivity is asymptotic. The review panel requested an additional sensitivity run that approximated asymptotic selectivity for the longline fleet that did change the spawning biomass trajectory but did not modify the assessment of current fishing mortality rates. - newer ASAP versions allow modeling selectivity this way now

Mutton Snapper SEDAR 15A Review Panel suggestions (continued) There is no unique best estimate model run that stands out as superior to other runs. The panel suggests using the ASAP base run for estimates of stock abundance, biomass and exploitation. 1.50 MSST SSBF30% 1.25 1.00 MFMT > MSST F2006/F30% 0.75 0.50 Control line < MSST 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 SSB2006/SSBF30% ALK-Base ALK-NoSEA ALK-RelM5% ALK-ConstM ALK-Incq ALK-L08 ALK-L08,NoSEA ALK-FishInd ALK-FishInd,NoSEA SSB F30% MSST MFMT > MSST DA "base" DA-NoSEA DA-RelM5% DA-ConstM DA-Incq DA-L08 DA-L08,NoSEA DA-FishInd DA-FishInd,NoSEA ASAP 2006 base run Control line < MSST

What does this update include?: Update incorporates New discard data (rates, lengths, dispositions) Revised maturity schedule, new sex ratio data (~1:1) Re-calculated growth curves, M (but similar to SEDAR 15A) New genetics data (still one stock) Stochastic Age-Length-Key (but still external to model) Fishery ALK and Direct aging as sensitivities Newer methods for constructing indices of abundance ALK- age comps for discards, indices of abundance Selectivity modeled with logistic and double logistic curves And linkage of fishery dependent indices to fleets Adjusted - Head Boat Survey landings and discards [SEDAR41-DW40, August 2014] Adjusted MRFSS/MRIP time series, by coast, year, and mode Base run, eighty-one sensitivity runs, 10-year retrospective, likelihood profiling, and MCMC (multiple chains)

Total Length (mm) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mutton Snapper, Southeastern U.S. Total Length at Age 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Age (years) Update assessment SEDAR 15A Comparison of growth curves from SEDAR 15A and Update Assessment SEDAR 15A Update L inf 874 861 k 0.164 0.165 t 0-1.325-1.237 r 2 0.84 0.80 n 7,172 13,052 Whole Weight (kg) 8 6 4 2 Mutton Snapper, Southeastern U.S. Weight at Age Update assessment SEDAR 15A 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Age (years)

Weight-at-length 8 Mutton Snapper, Southeastern U.S. Weight at Length Whole Weight (kg) 6 4 2 Update assessment and SEDAR 15A 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Total Length (mm)

Comparison of age-specific survival used in SEDAR 15A and the update assessment Proportion of Age-1 Recruits Remaining 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Mutton Snapper, Southeastern U.S. Age-Specific Survival 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Age (years) Update assessment SEDAR 15A

Length at 50% maturity 1.00 Maturity curves Proportion mature 0.75 0.50 0.25 388 mm 402 mm 0.00 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 Total length (mm) Update, predicted Update, L50 SEDAR 15A predicted SEDAR 15A L50 1.00 Age at 50% maturity Proportion mature 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 2.92 3.71 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total length (mm) Update, predicted Update, A50 SEDAR 15A, predicted SEDAR 15A, A50

Sources of discard data for mutton snapper NMFS Coastal Fisheries Logbook Program (CFLP) Log books filled out by commercial fishermen for landings since, random sample of 20% of commercial fisheries selected to provide discard data beginning in 2002. NMFS Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) and Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP) Dockside intercepts of recreational anglers returning from trips provide an estimate of the number of fish they release (type B2 ), and whether the fish was alive or dead upon release. Nearly all mutton snapper were reported to be released alive from -. NMFS Southeast Head Boat Survey (HBS) Information regarding amounts of fish released alive or dead reported by head boat operators on vessel logs since 2004 At-sea sampling on head boats (primarily GulfFIN and ACCSP) Observations of head boat anglers catching and releasing fish and sizes of released fish -, 2010-2012 FL Keys and West FL, -2014 FL Atlantic Coast, immediate release mortality for mutton snapper ranged from 6.6% (FL Keys) to 14.0% (SE FL).

Comparison of commercial vertical line harvests and releases for SEDAR 15A and update assessment Harvest (mt) (landings+dead discards) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Commercial HL Harvest Update Assessment SEDAR 15A Releases (mt) with 15% release mortality 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Commercial HL Releases 0 0 Update Assessment SEDAR 15A

Comparison of commercial long line harvests (with no estimated live releases) for SEDAR 15A and update assessment 100 90 Commercial LL Harvest Update Assessment SEDAR 15A 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Harvest (mt) (landings+dead discards)

Comparison of adjusted Head Boat harvests and releases for SEDAR 15A and update assessment Harvest (mt) (landings+dead discards) 120 100 80 60 40 20 Head Boat Harvest Update Assessment Update, - adjusted SEDAR 15A Releases (mt) with 15% release mortality 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Head Boat Releases Update Assessment Update, - adjusted SEDAR 15A 0 0.0 - portion of time series considered uncertain [SEDAR41-DW40], adjusted landings and releases using the 1992-1994 mean (numbers of fish), dockside length samples for estimating weight, and discard rates and lengths from at-sea sampling used for estimating dead discards and live releases.

Comparison of alternative recreational harvests and releases for SEDAR 15A and update assessment Harvest(metric tons) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Mutton Snapper Harvest (landings and dead discards) South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Recreational, unadjusted Recreational, ratio ad hoc WG Recreational, ratio SEFSC SEDAR15A 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 Harvest(metric tons) Mutton Snapper Estimated Releases (with 15% release mortality) South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Recreational, unadjusted Recreational, ratio ad hoc WG Recreational, ratio SEFSC SEDAR15A

U.S. South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Mutton Snapper harvest and estimated releases (at 15% release mortality) in metric tons Harvest(metric tons) 1,000 800 600 400 200 Mutton Snapper Harvest (landings, dead discards) South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Recreational, ratio-adjusted by Mode Head Boat, adjusted -91 Comm LL Comm HL 0 Estimated Releases that die (metric tons) 50 40 30 20 10 Mutton Snapper Estimated Releases (with 15% release mortality) South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico 0 Recreational, ratio-adjusted by Mode Head Boat, adjusted -91 Comm LL Comm HL

Assessment model Statistical catch-at-age model (ASAP3) age composition from age-length keys ages 1-25+ Length compositions from fisheries, year, and region age-specific natural mortality (Lorenzen), averaged over ages 3-40 fleets: commercial HL and LL, Head Boat, and Recreational commercial and recreational landings - NMFS Annual Landings and General Canvass, FWC trip tickets MRFSS/MRIP (ratio-adjusted by mode), SE HB Survey (-91 adjusted by averaging 1992-94) Biological samples: NMFS Trip Interview Program, FWC, NCDMF discard lengths based on at-sea sampling on head boats -2014 (SE FL), - and 2010-2012 (FL Keys) discard mortality rates from NMFS log books and HB at-sea sampling discard rates from NMFS log books, MRFSS B2, and HB at-sea sampling

Assessment model Statistical catch-at-age model (ASAP3) Indices: Fishery dependent (hurdle model-based estimates, linked to fleets): Coastal Fisheries Log Book (CFLP, 1990-2012 HL & LL), Stephens and MacCall subsets MRFSS (1986-), Cluster subsets Head Boat (-), Cluster subsets Fishery independent (design-based estimates): NMFS-UM RVC (1998-2012, proportional stratified random) + length frequencies, reef tract visual survey FWC FIM Age-1 (1998-; GLM) + length frequencies, 183-m haul seine, estuarine (Indian River) Riley s Hump (2002-, ; GENMOD), average number per site, visual survey of aggregations steepness (free, model-estimated, plus sensitivities) catchabilities (constant) Starting values for selectivities single logistic for commercial HL and LL, index linked to fleet age compositions double logistic for head boat and recreational, index linked to fleet age compositions

Index scaled to mean 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Indices of Abundance NMFS Coastal Fisheries Log Book Program, Vertical Line Fleet Update assessment SEDAR 15A Commercial, Coastal Fisheries Log Book, 1990-2012 0.0 Index scaled to mean 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 NMFS Coastal Fisheries Log Book Program, Longline Fleet Update assessment 0.0 SEDAR 15A

1.6 1.4 Indices of Abundance NMFS Southeast Head Boat Survey Index Head Boat and Recreational Fleets Index scaled to mean 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Update assessment, adjusted -91 SEDAR 15A 0.0 Index scaled to mean 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 NMFS MRFSS/MRIP (recreational) Index Update assessment, cluster index SEDAR 15A, targeted/caught index

Index scaled to mean 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Indices of Abundance FWC FIM Age-1 Index Indian River and Tequesta Estuaries Update assessment, year+1, Jan. 1, IR and TEQ, ALK, hurdle model SEDAR 15A, Age 1+ (SL>80mm), IR and TEQ, ZIB model SEDAR 15A, Age-0 (SL<=80mm), IR only, not used, ZIB model Fishery Independent Indices FIM Age-1, RVC, Riley s Hump 0.0 3.0 NMFS-UM RVC Index 2.5 NMFS Riley's Hump Index Index scaled to mean 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Update Assessment, all sizes, 1998-2012 SEDAR 15A, exploited sizes (>=40cm), 1994- NMFS-UM RVC 1994- (not used) Index scaled to mean 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Update Assessment, assumed ages 5-15 SEDAR 15A, assumed ages 5-15

Indices of Abundance Fleets and Fishery Independent Index scaled to mean 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Fleet Indices Recreational Head Boat Comm HL Comm LL 0.0 Index scaled to mean 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Fishery Independent Indices FIM Age-1 NMFS-UM RVC Riley's Hump

Selectivities (model estimates) 1.0 1.0 Selectivity 0.8 0.6 0.4 Commercial HL Commercial LL Head Boat MRFSS/MRIP Recreational Selectivity 0.8 0.6 0.4 RVC, Initial selectivity RVC, Model Fitted 0.2 0.2 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25+ 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25+ Age (yr) Age 1.0 0.8 Directed N-weighted - N-weighted - Overall selectivity 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25+ Age (yr)

Model estimates: Average F, Age 3 Fishing mortality per year (age-3) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Update SEDAR 15A Year Fishing mortality per year (age-3) 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Base Fishery ALK Direct aging Year

Retrospective analysis 10-year retrospective (-) Fishing mortality of Age-4 (fully recruited) 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Year 2012 2010 2008 Spawning biomass (metric tons) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Year 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 Base 2006 2004 Base Recruitment (thousands of Age- 1fish) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Year 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 Base

Model estimates F current /F 30%SPR SSB /SSB 30%SPR F current /F 30%SPR 0.65 SSB /SSB 30%SPR 1.13 SSB /MSST 1.27 Fcurrent/F30%SPR 1.0 MSST MCMC samples Model estimates 0.0 0.0 1.0 SSB /SSB 30%SPR

Summary of runs Figure 4.8.3 *Revised* selected from Table 4.8.2 (Update document) F current / F msy proxy 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 Biomass ratio (SSB/SSBmsy proxy) No HL index No LL index No HB index No rec index No FIM index No RVC index No Riley's index Rec as pop index Start rec at age 1 20% rel mort 5% rel mort M=0.08 No age comps Direct aging FI indices only FIM and RVC only FD indices only FIM only RVC only Riley's only FIM and Riley's RVC and Riley's Base MSST F ratio limit

16,000 Projections from base run 7,000 Total biomass (metric tons) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Spawning biomass (metric tons) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Year F = 0 F = F F = Fgeo F = F30%SPR F = F 40%SPR 1,000 140 Directed landings (metric tons) 800 600 400 200 Discards (metric tons) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 Year 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Year F = 0 F = F F = Fgeo F = F30%SPR F = F 40%SPR 2029 2032 2035 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 Year 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 F = 0 F = F F = Fgeo F = F30%SPR F = F 40%SPR F = 0 F = F F = Fgeo F = F30%SPR F = F 40%SPR

Acceptable biological catch (ABC) for Mutton Snapper in pounds whole weight based on an annual probability of exceeding the overfishing limit (OFL) at a specified P*. Year F Pr(F>Fmsy P* SSB (lb) Pr(SSB>SSBmsy) R ABC landings (lb) ABC discards (lb) ABC landings (num) ABC discards (num) 2014 0.16 0.27 NA 4,343,292 0.21 626,931 664,876 30,708 113,300 17,341 2015 0.17 0.39 NA 4,328,721 0.21 603,533 664,877 44,496 125,245 25,215 2016 0.19 0.50 0.5 4,419,448 0.32 596,923 713,492 54,005 148,995 29,298 2017 0.19 0.50 0.5 4,486,590 0.41 602,604 751,711 55,962 164,150 29,660 2018 0.19 0.50 0.5 4,601,094 0.50 605,593 793,823 56,994 173,656 30,071 2019 0.19 0.50 0.5 4,858,373 0.62 606,419 835,318 58,170 180,716 30,430 2020 0.19 0.50 0.5 4,547,336 0.48 612,369 850,077 58,857 184,868 30,780 Probability of exceeding OFL = 0.40 (P* = 0.4) 2014 0.16 0.27 NA 4,343,292 0.21 626,931 664,876 30,708 113,300 17,341 2015 0.17 0.39 NA 4,328,721 0.21 603,533 664,877 44,496 125,245 25,215 2016 0.18 0.40 0.4 4,425,581 0.33 596,923 676,346 51,204 141,295 27,766 2017 0.17 0.40 0.4 4,516,921 0.44 602,759 711,032 52,822 155,240 27,933 2018 0.17 0.40 0.4 4,658,588 0.54 606,350 750,616 53,568 164,013 28,169 2019 0.17 0.40 0.4 4,948,681 0.67 607,912 791,193 54,511 170,648 28,403 2020 0.17 0.40 0.4 4,660,577 0.53 614,289 806,187 55,022 174,399 28,629

The following slides are extras.

Mutton Snapper Age Samples Similar age and growth parameters used SEDAR 15A: 7,217 age-length samples available Growth eqn: von Bertalanffy, truncated, constant CV L = 874 mm, k = 0.164, t 0 = -1.32, n=7,172 Update assessment: 14,432 age-length samples available Growth eqn: von Bertalanffy, truncated, decreasing CV, removed fishery dependent samples of ages 0-2 L = 861 mm, k = 0.165, t 0 = -1.24, n=13,042

Growth curve from SEDAR 15A

SEDAR 15A 1.00 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 Maturity at age was re-evaluated Proportion mature 0.75 0.50 0.25 2 A 50 = 3.71 n = 32 fish 0.00 7 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Age (yr) Update Assessment Obs Pred 1.00 18 11 5 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 Proportion mature 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 11 A 50 =2.92 yr, n = 76 9 6 Mat = 1/(1+exp(-4.89*(Age-2.92))) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Age (yr) Obs Pred

SEDAR 15A 1.00 1 1 1 2 2 5 1 2 3 6 3 1 1 Maturity at length was re-evaluated Proportion mature 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 1 4 3 2 L 50 = 402 mm TL n = 39 fish 212.5 262.5 312.5 362.5 412.5 462.5 512.5 562.5 612.5 Total length (mm) 662.5 712.5 762.5 812.5 Update Assessment Obs Pred 1.00 3 7 9 6 1 2 1 3 2 7 1 2 4 7 3 2 3 Proportion mature 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 4 Len 50 = 388 mm TL, n=83 2 1 4 2 3 4 Mat = 1/(1+exp(-0.533*(TL-388))) 212.5 262.5 312.5 362.5 412.5 462.5 512.5 562.5 612.5 662.5 712.5 762.5 812.5 Total length (mm) Obs Pred

Known spawning locations for mutton snapper (Carson et al., Table 1)

Major oceanographic features - Extensive shelf areas, currents, potential recruitment pathways and connectivity, drifter tracks

NMFS-UM Reef Visual Census survey domain (design-based fishery independent index of abundance)

Comparing Age Composition Methods example: Mutton Snapper, Commercial Hook and Line Fleet Direct Ageing Uses observed ages Stochastic Ageing Uses observed lengths and growth curve

Commercial Hook and Line Catch Observed Predicted Residual [Direct Ageing] Observed Predicted Residual [Stochastic Ageing]

Commercial Longline Catch Observed Predicted Residual [Direct Ageing] Observed Predicted Residual [Stochastic Ageing]

Head Boat Catch Observed Predicted Residual [Direct Ageing] Observed Predicted Residual [Stochastic Ageing]

Recreational (MRFSS/MRIP) Catch Observed Predicted Residual [Direct Ageing] Observed Predicted Residual [Stochastic Ageing]